ES 3/4

SPX Weekly

What I'm seeing: the next real support at 595 - 600

SPX Daily

What I'm seeing: we are in wave 3 of corrective wave Z.

What that means to me is that we still have a long way to go in the current downtrend. ADX could always go up to 50. It's done that before anyway.

ES Hourly

What I'm seeing: we are at wave 4 & 5 of wave v (which seems to be taking the form of an ending diagonal) of wave III (see SPX daily above).

Elliot aside, it simply means that I see ES moving up to 700 resistance and reversing to look for bottom at floor of green broadening wedge. Using wave 1 as seed, Fib ext 261.8 at 655 is my target for now.

That's the smaller picture. Don't quite want to think about the bigger one yet.

ES 3min

I'm going with the scenario that ES will trade up to 700, at most to 709, then move down beyond the low for today (681.85). It could trade within that range (681 - 709) during the pre-US market hours, and if it's trading in the upper region of that range by the time the active trading session begins, it's only going to get smacked down (after all, everyone loves to fade a gap, especially a gap up during a time like this). To where? I don't know. 655 I think. Just something for me to work with. Not entirely impossible. In order for us to move up, we need to go down big time first. This inching down everyday is not going to help.

Game Plan & Rules

Will trade the rally up if ES comes back down to white dotted uptrend line (on 3min chart above). Else, will give it a miss until it hits the high for the day. Then I'll be looking to short. I'll go long only if it trades in diagonal triangles (where wave 4 overlaps wave 1).

As usual, NOT going to hold any loss for more than 1 point. Will exit position once reason for getting in is no longer there.