Thursday, March 12, 2009

ES 3/12 - 3 Rising Valleys

ES 3min
A pattern I've seen often enough...Didn't take the trade coz it's not my practice to buy an upward breakout. Maybe one day I will. I most definitely should!

A rather reliable reversal pattern to play. Look for it around day's low and near major support (712 in this case). High probability trade as the expectation is for price to break on the downside of the triangle (ie. betting on bears running).

First exit target's the start of the pattern (715.75). If it develops into a cup with handle, 2nd target could easily be at day's high (fib ext 261.8 -"seed" is that drop before the 3rd valley). Enter 0.25 point above the high of the trigger candle for the MSL at 3rd valley. That's the way I would play it. My exit target would have been at 714 (which is actually the confirmation for the pattern) , or maybe even at 713.5 (I don't buy breakouts). It would have been a nice scalp - too bad that entry is less than 3 points from my exit target.

Definitely going into my depository.

No comments: