No Time For Bad Trades

It's apparent that my best days this week were those where I hadn't the time to sit in front of my screen (staring at my charts) for 12 - 16 hours a day.

When pressed for time, I trade the best setup coz I have no time to nurse bad trades. I take a look at my charts for a few minutes and if within that time I don't see my favorites, I simply walk away. It was "Carrie Week". My friend was my priority.

Actually, I was prepared to take a trading break for the week to spend time with Carrie. However, it turned out that I had a few hours to kill each day while Carrie went out to meet her other friends here. I had used those spare time to go over my charts, and if I didn't see anything I could trade, I simply get dressed earlier and played with Al (didn't want to get stuck in bad trades that I had to nurse - coudn't let my friend wait for me). We usually got home way after the US market had opened, and I would scan the ES 5 min for my favorite setups. I was able to quickly make out what the trend was and where it was likely going. My eyes and mind were simply way, way sharper after being away from the screen for the entire day.

A more detailed review of the week:

Monday - Carrie had arrived in the morning and we were out the whole day. When I sat down in front of my charts for the first time that day, it was slightly before US lunch session. I took 2 trades while Carrie was in the shower. Stopped out on both. After Carrie and D turned in - which was 2 hours later - I recouped all my losses. Breakeven day : + USD 25

Tuesday - Carrie was out in the afternoon, and I took a few 6E trades. Then in the evening, when she was having a chat with D, I took a quick ES trade. Good day. Best day. + USD 487

Wednesday - Carrie went to an island nearby with a friend. I took a few 6E trades, then spent a lot of time sleeping (and didn't feel guilty, coz, hey, I wasn't supposed to be trading anyway). Took just 1 ES trade in the evening coz I had to be up early the following morning. Good day (albeit filled with blunders) +USD 375

Thursday - Spent the whole day with Carrie and saw her off at the airport. Got home shortly before the US session started. D was having a headache and I didn't want to keep him up. So my plan was to go for just 1 good trade and then call it a day. I had to be selective about my only trade for the day. Great day. 1 trade + USD 300

Friday - The first day of the week that I had the ENTIRE DAY to trade. D-day: -USD 575

Nuff said.

Lord Tedders once told me that his best days were those where he spent only a couple of hours in front of his screen. I always remember what he said, but it hasn't stopped me from doing stupid things now and then.

Once in a while, I must sabotage myself.

Maybe I don't love me so much after all.

ES 4/29

Again, a simple analysis just to get a general idea of where market could be heading. It's difficult to not have a view. Better to have one and when you don't think you're right, you simply switch side. Ha.

On the Daily:

Highlighted in yellow is a Rising Three pattern (to qualify as rising 3, all bearish candles should be small-bodied candles with bodies that are within the range of the long bullish candle, and there need NOT be 3 candles....It think it's called 3 coz in Japanese culture, the number "3" is significant...), I THINK.

Volume doesn't substantiate it though. Besides, it's appeared just right below a strong resistance area. So I'm really keeping my fingers crossed that we'll have an up day tomorrow. For today, I'm expecting anything to happen. I mean, it's FED DAY!!! *7#$&*@!!!!

On the Hourly:

I would be cautious if price gaps up at open (well, it's already UP...). I would be more bullish if it didn't (means that price will have to start plunging right about now). Having said that, if it opens below 850 (below that gap highlighted in blue), I'll be very bearish.

A lot of "IF"s. But that's the reality of daytrading. That's why it doesn't make sense to me to do any detailed analysis. CURRENT price action is what matters to me.

But still, I don't want to go into the market with a blank mind. I go in with some kind of hypothesis, and let the market prove me right. If I'm wrong, I get out before I'm proven wrong. Sounds good in theory at least....difficult to execute in practice. I've made it easy by simply RUNNING when price stalls after I enter. I get nervous when buyers and sellers stop to think. If I've gone in short on a bull trap setup, I want to see bulls running. If they aren't running, it means they're not so trapped, and I had better get the hell out.

Will be trading light today, I think. Will stay away from 2pm on.

I hate Fed days.

ES 4/28

Am keeping my analysis simple to avoid thinking too much when I'm scalping.

On the hourly: For as long as 850, 823 and 810 are not taken out, we're still on an uptrend. Those gaps have not been filled so far (none of the candles had closed below them).

On the daily: The longer we stay in that channel, the fiercer the breakout. Am definitely hoping it's on the upside. I just can't sell these days! 865 has gotta be taken out.

Going full throttle tonight. Will have to trust my new platform at some point.

ES 4/21

ES Hourly

Game plan for the day:
Whenever price closes above 833.75, I'll consider a long entry. Targeting for 842.
Will consider short positions below 830. Target: 820

ES 4/13

ES Daily:
Looks pretty straightforward to me. The expectation is that price should go up to 870, then 930. Along the way there would be some profit taking - in the absence of surprises (keeping my fingers crossed), we should see price hit 930, then retrace to form a higher significant low at 800, maybe even 740. In the event of a surprise, we're likely to see a reversal back to 662 low.

ES 15min:
Looks like ES is attempting to close gap and test 854.5. If it succeeds in doing so, more buyers are likely to get on board.

Should the opposite happen - we'll have fib 161.8, fib 132.8 and fib 100 as support from where ES could bounce back up to test 854. Scenario 2 is likely to freak some buyers out. Lots of bear traps too.

Game plan:
Play by ear. Where ES is now is tricky for me.

ES Trades 4/8 & 4/9

Chart above shows my last 2 trades. Closed the last just 30 minutes ago.

If ES is able to stay above 830, I'll be officially bullish for the day. I'm neutral for now. Given that ES has hit 423.6% with a 5-point seed, I usually would expect it to start coming back down. That said, it's done a fairly decent retracement to 812 near to market close yesterday - that, plus the bear trap, are reasons I am leaning more to the bull's side for now.

Plan for today is still to trade familiar setup, and will use indicators to identify main trend. My indicators are giving extremely bullish read. But I'm going to be sticking with price actions - simple S & R, Fib and such. I'm watching 828.75 very closely. It could turn out to be the level that stops ES. We have a breakout that's not quite confirmed yet. Could become a bull trap.

ES 4/3

Not selling until ES has tested 830. Not buying until it's done a decent retracement.

Yes, am totally confused. Must be non-farm and all the bad memories.

ES, TF & 6E 4/1

ES

We should get a bounce off 770. 800 has been breached yesterday, clearing the way for ES - it's likely heading for 830 and beyond.
Volatility Stop: 4 - 5 points

TF

Bouncing off at 405 to test 430, I think.
Volatility Stop: 2.5 - 3.5 points

Euro (6E)

Seems possible for 6E to hit Fib ext 138.2 (1.2930) today.
Game Plan: Trading down mostly
Volatility Stop: 2 points

ES, TF & 6E 3/31

ES

Game Plan: Scalp within 760 - 800 range
Volatility Stop: 4 - 5 points

TF

Game Plan: Scalp within 410 - 440 range
Volatility Stop: 2.5 - 3.5 points

6E

Game Plan: Scalping within the 1.3180 to 1.3400 range
Volatility stop: 1.5 - 2 points

Euro Futures (6E) & ES 3/30

Euro Spot (Monthly, Weekly, Daily) & Futures (30min)

Euro Futures (6E) 5min

Game Plan

For now, I'm looking to buy a 3-rising valley.
Will consider a move only when price breaks above 1.3288.
Targets 1 to 4 indicated on chart above.

Should price breaks on the downside, will reassess. But I really think that Fib ext 261.8 is a good support.

SPX (Monthly, Weekly, Daily) & ES 30min

ES 5min

Game Plan
Long above 800 (that's around Fib 161.8 for current move down)

ES 3/18 - Fib Targets

Still holding my no-good trade. Will let it go probably near pivot, if it gets there. Or at 769, which is Fib ext 138.2 (using the high to first swing low as the seed), or at around 758. Am wondering if today's doing the exact opposite of yesterday. Will see how things unfold.

ES 3min (Yesterday)

The above shows ES hitting fib 423.6 target at market close. On a strong trending day, it has hit that TWICE (seed had a tight range though) before. The downward move to yesterday's low hit 211.8 in a matter of an hour. Had I been more attentive, I should have taken that as a sign that what ES would do next was to go for the targets on the other (up) side. Before the low was hit, ES had been stopped repeatedly by 138.2, which was just too far below its potential.

ES 3min (Today)

This chart shows seeds for both first down move and first up move for today (pink is down, blue is up). ES has a tendency to stop at levels 211.8 and 138.2. On trending days, it usually exceeds 423.6 by the end of the active trading session.

As I've mentioned, am not planning new trades for now. Am just waiting for a place to get out

ES 3/17 & Rant

ES 3min

Levels that I'm watching. Plus 776 & 782.

I have no idea if ES wants to test the high or the low, and I have no idea how I'm going to go about trading today. So far, using stops has been EXTREMELY uncomfortable and unnatural. If it takes doing something that feels totally unnatural to trade well, I'll choose sitting on a losing position over using a stop ANYTIME. Ok, that's not fair. Sitting on a losing position is absolutely in my blood, but damn, it's gotta be the most uncomfortable thing to do!

So far, scratching without waiting to be proven wrong, or outright sitting when my trade has not been proven a bad one has worked FOR ME (save the few times that I totally lost my mind and decided to inflict some REAL pain in order to learn). Trading without a hard stop has been stressful, but I feel in control. Putting in stupid bracket orders or simply a hard stop makes me feel like a really lousy stuntman that needs a safety net, or more aptly, a leashed dog.

I'm tired of wanting to do what's right. Why can't what's right be whatever that makes you money 80 - 90% of the time?? Now I've simply gone from feeling stressful to MORE stressful coz I really don't know what the hell I'm doing.

Why does wanting to be JUST me ALWAYS feel so wrong???

ES 3/16

ES 3min

ES looks bullish for now. Buying first decent throwback. Selling double tops and Inverted Head and Shoulders. Watching 669, 776, 782 resistance and signs of bears fading gap.

In a nutshell, playing by ear.

ES 3/12

ES Hourly

Nothing much to say except that I can't see ES going up without revisiting support at 665 - 680.

As far as trading goes, will stick to scalping if there's no quality setup to trade. Using stop loss.

Am now spending a fair bit of time looking for the setups that I've been trading - those that had worked for me, and those that had gone against me in lightning speed (am particularly interested in the latter). All will go into my chart setup warehouse...

ES 3/11

ES Hourly

I just keep seeing ES going back down to 681 support. That is, if it doesn't break above 723.75 resistance. If it does, I'll buy, depending on what develops on my charts.

Damn! I just missed this!
My fib ext drawn for nothing! Blogging is bad for the wallet!!

ES 3/10

ES Hourly

Resistance at 694.75. Support at 676.25, then 665.75. Trendline providing support too...looks like we could be trading sideways today and tmrw barring any surprises in the market

ES Daily

I'm a bear. I keep imagining that the bullish candle for today is going to end up bearish....

ES 3min

Pivot below, open's below, and price is at day's high....It's nearly 6am EST now...Textbook.

Correction: Just noticed that ES has been on a pretty healthy uptrend for the past 15 hours ...I'll be watching support at 689.5 and 680.75

Game Plan & Rules

- Buy (day) low, sell (day) high

- Trade familiar setups

- Honor stop losses!!

ES 3/6

ES Daily

ES Hourly

Once we close below 681.5, I would take it that our odds of reaching 645 (fib ext 132.8) has become higher.

ES 10min

We are now trading within the range of the last bullish candle on the 10min. Within the day, I'm prepared for ES to test 688.75 - 703.5, although my view is primarily bearish.

Game Plan

Using mainly the 3min and 1min for scalping. Will go primarily for shorts at key resistance. Longs will be considered as price makes newer lows.

RULES

- Honor all stops
- No holding of any loss for more than the max pain set for the day - exit position once reason for getting in is no longer there.
- Be objective at all times and stay with what chart is doing, NOT what it has done and what I think it will do
- Be attentive to what candles are saying, especially on 10mins.
- DOJIs! DOJIs! DOJIs!

ES 3/5

ES Daily

ES Hourly

Turns out that what's in the green wedge is wave v in an ending diagonal. What I'm seeing now is the forming of abc corrective wave (wave IV). Looks like a Flat to me.

ES 10min

ES 3min

Support at 681.5. That's the way I see it for now. Will see how chart plays out.

Game Plan

Playing by ear. Experimenting with a setup that allows me to not have to run in and out. Would have worked out perfectly yesterday had I not had a short bias. 2nd entry was a disaster just for the simple reason that I failed to honor my stop.

RULES

- Honor all stops
- Be objective at all times and stay with what chart is doing, NOT what it has done and what I think it will do
- Be attentive to what candles are saying, especially on 10mins.
- DOJIs! DOJIs! DOJIs!

I hate D & W.

I hate D & J more though - Mismatch of the millennium.

ES 3/4

SPX Weekly

What I'm seeing: the next real support at 595 - 600

SPX Daily

What I'm seeing: we are in wave 3 of corrective wave Z.

What that means to me is that we still have a long way to go in the current downtrend. ADX could always go up to 50. It's done that before anyway.

ES Hourly

What I'm seeing: we are at wave 4 & 5 of wave v (which seems to be taking the form of an ending diagonal) of wave III (see SPX daily above).

Elliot aside, it simply means that I see ES moving up to 700 resistance and reversing to look for bottom at floor of green broadening wedge. Using wave 1 as seed, Fib ext 261.8 at 655 is my target for now.

That's the smaller picture. Don't quite want to think about the bigger one yet.

ES 3min

I'm going with the scenario that ES will trade up to 700, at most to 709, then move down beyond the low for today (681.85). It could trade within that range (681 - 709) during the pre-US market hours, and if it's trading in the upper region of that range by the time the active trading session begins, it's only going to get smacked down (after all, everyone loves to fade a gap, especially a gap up during a time like this). To where? I don't know. 655 I think. Just something for me to work with. Not entirely impossible. In order for us to move up, we need to go down big time first. This inching down everyday is not going to help.

Game Plan & Rules

Will trade the rally up if ES comes back down to white dotted uptrend line (on 3min chart above). Else, will give it a miss until it hits the high for the day. Then I'll be looking to short. I'll go long only if it trades in diagonal triangles (where wave 4 overlaps wave 1).

As usual, NOT going to hold any loss for more than 1 point. Will exit position once reason for getting in is no longer there.

ES 3/3

SPX & ES Daily

Not looking so good....Index's really looking like it could trend further down...

ES Hourly

Definitely still holding the view that ES is trading down to the floor of the broadening wedge (blue trendlines) with the completion of wave 5....

ES 10min

I'm really not optimistic that ES will trade above pivot (at around 714).
675 (Fib ext 261.8) is where I think it could be going.

Game Plan & Rules

ES 3min

If wave c were to stop at 713.75, forming a double top with end of wave a, I'll look to scalp a 5-wave downtrend.

Again, NOT going to hold any loss for more than 1 point. Will exit position once reason for getting in is no longer there.