ES 3/2

SPX Weekly

SPX Daily

ES Hourly

SPX weekly: Next level of support at 600

SPX Daily: We seem to be in wave 3 now...

ES Hourly:
We seem to be in wave 3 of an extended wave 3 of the higher degree (volume trend is NOT contradicting that)....ES could test low at floor of channel (in pink), bounce off from there, reverse back down at 729.5, then make its way to the floor of the broadening wedge (in blue), completing wave 5. By then, we should be at around 600, which is about Fib 261.8 from price peak at 1440.

Game Plan & Rules

ES 3min

ES just broke out of triangle. Looks like a wave 2 to me. I'm not doing anything until a temporary low has been formed ie. completion of wave 3. Will probably trade wave 4 up to the base of the triangle (which will be resistance for now) if wave 3 is substantially longer than what I'm actually seeing now. Definitely not making any attempts to call a bottom again. It's more likely that I'll look to sell short to end of wave 3 from resistance. Will see.

I'm hypothesizing that the low is going to be the completion of the 2nd leg of a measured move down...could be 714 - 716, or a perfect 700....

Anyway, it looks quite unlikely to me that we will get anywhere near pivot at 740 today . But the market has been doing strange things, so I'll be prepared for anything.

Given that we actually traded away from pivot on Friday, if the same scenario were to unfold today, it would be very telling of a market that's gone quite psycho.

What that means to me is that I would totally pass up risky entries. No entering on the assumption that price will make a dash for a particular level. Definitely no holding of any positions for more than 10 mins. No sitting on loss of more than 0.75 point for pre-market entries. If trade is not going in the desired direction, get out and wait for next setup. Sitting is a plain waste of time. Premarket gives plenty of opportunities to bail at breakeven or very minimal damage within mins.