Tuesday, December 30, 2008

TF Trades 12/29 - Stopped Out


Stopped out.

Total Damage: Max. Pain (daily)

Will I ever get to see my familiar charts and momentum again???

Never in my 6 months of trading have I had 4 consecutive losing days. I'm an idiot to not have noticed that I can no longer trade the morning session. I should have taken note of my recent pattern of recovering losses in the afternoon and simply avoided the morning session altogether. DAMN!

Soul-searching is definitely in order.

Doesn't mean I'm going to stop BUYING - I'm sticking to my bullish view. Yes, I'm bias. One has got to have a view to trade. But I need speed. And I need people to stop messing up my chart! It looks monstrous!!!

3 consecutive days of hitting max pain means it's time I stay out for at least 3 days. Playing online poker instead!!

Way past bedtime. Can't afford to have sunken eyes and cheeks for my interview.

Stupid TF 3min

TF Trades 12/29


I've had it. Crazy market.

Am SWINGING this.

Turning in. Need my beauty sleep.

Interview tomorrow!

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Daytrading Instrument: Forex or Emini Futures?

Received this from a fellow course mate:

Thank you for sharing with me so much through the few days of knowing only each other for such a short while. I kind of admire you that you have become a full-time trader, and I truly want to be in the footsteps of you and Michael Woo.

As I see myself having similar interests with you trading both the futures and forex, I was just wondering if you can help me with some queries which I have in mind.

Currently, I am trading in the Spot Forex, which in time I will be moving to the futures market once I have enough dough to open an IB account. I do have 2 questions, hope you can help me.

Are there are periods of time which you shun away or avoid trading big units due to low volatility or news such as FOMC.

Also, I am highly curious who you have learnt forex trading from. Will you be able to recommend the person who taught you forex trading? Whilst I am fully committed to Michael Woo's teachings, my aim is to build capital from trading forex as it is the only way that could lead me to the E-MINI trading eventually.

My reply (which I've decided to put on my blog because I realized it is something I can refer to whenever I feel lost myself) is going to offend forex scalpers I'm afraid, and I want to state that this is purely my opinion, and opinions and facts are not the same:

You mentioned you would like to use profits from forex trading to start a futures trading account with IB. I'm not sure that's the easiest path, or even a correct one for that matter. Personally, I would do the opposite, and here's why: it is easier to generate "income" from trading futures than forex. The futures market is where all the actions are on intraday basis. You can find trading opportunities virtually everyday in the futures market. With forex, there tend to be long periods of price congestions (where price is going nowhere), and the only way to make quick profits is if you scalp the 1-min charts. Add spreads and commissions into the picture and you'll be left with very meager profits. That is provided you're right most of the time. And even if you are, trading off 1min charts will take you ages to accumulate what you need to start an account in IB.

Since I know nothing about your financial status and why you are rushing into making money from trading, I'll just give you my general opinion: it's more feasible and realistic to SAVE up to start a 10K account to trade the eminis, and build your account SLOWLY. By that time, you'll not want to go back to forex, except to SWING trade it.

If I remember correctly, you're now pusuing a tertiary education? Do you work part-time? If you do, then start saving. Depending on your income, it might take you a year or 2 to reach USD10k. Meanwhile, open a paper trading account (with Options Express perhaps) and start paper trading the e-minis to get in syn with the market and get familiar with e mini futures. When you are finally able to fund an IB account, it's advisable to paper trade on the IB platform for a week or two to get used to it. After that, you can start trading real money, since you'd have had done a lot of paper trading by then.

As and when you start paper trading, start a trading journal as well. Document how you plan your trade, document your entries and exits and include details like whether you have followed your plan (which would include the REASONS for entries and exits), document your thinking process (aka decision making process), your moods, and finally, document what the broader market sentiment is like for that day.

By the time you complete your own "coaching" program, you'll have enough notes and real data to assess what type of trader you are (are you a scalper or a daytrader? what chart patterns are you inclined to recognize and profit from? what is your risk tolerence - which will determine where you place your stops, etc), which timeframe suits you (some people can trade the 1st 2 hours, and some can't), and what kind of market is more profitable for you (some people can't make money from a market that's too volatile, some flourish in a wild market - both groups make money).

Having all this info gives you the confidence to enter a trade and see it through, and also the experience to know when you should take profit or get out of a losing trade.

What I'm telling you might not sit well with you. But I have to tell you that PATIENCE is a trait that if you don't already have right now, you'll have to start acquiring. Trading really tests your patience. Much like fishing. Am sure you know what I'm getting at.

There's always plenty of opportunity to make money once you've acquired both knowledge about the market and ABOUT YOURSELF. Right now, it's important for you to focus on your studies and not be distracted by losses (as you can see, I'm stating it as if it is a fact. It is. Losses are part of the game. You will most definitely lose money in the first few months or even years that you begin trading). It's ok to paper trade to gain knowledge about the instrument you're trading, about the market, and about yourself as a trader. Even taking time out to work to save up for your capital is ok, as long as your work doesn't take your focus away from your studies.

Trading real money requires full concentration and a GOOD state. If you're worrying about a test, an assignment or an exam, it's not possible to trade well. So you're looking at a situation where both your trading and your studies are going to be affected.

If you must earn quick money, I suggest you take up a sales job. The hours are usually flexible, and if you're a people person, you'll most likely even have fun at work :-)

Just don't put your hope on making money from trading. Not now. Not even in the next few months. Trading is like any other profession. It takes years of practice and being with the market DAILY to become good at it. You don't have to start counting from the day you have the capital to start trading. You can start now by paper trading. That is experience too. And you don't lose any money.

Just make sure that when you paper trade, you treat it like it's real trading. Which means you don't trade 10 contracts and wipe out your 100k paper trading account in a month. You trade on paper the way you'll trade with real money. It will make the transition to real money trading much much faster. When you finally start trading with real money, just be prepared that there'll be a learning curve too. The psychology will be different, no matter how prepared you are. But having the confidence that you actually know what you're doing will give you a lot of edge.

Now, to answer your question on forex - I can't point you to anyone, coz I've never had a teacher. I'm self-taught. There isn't even a good forex book on the market that I can recommend you. The best forex books are the manuals that banks write for their traders. These are the professional traders who look at a multitude of things that will overwhelm you at this point if I were to tell you what they are.

In anycase, it's pointless to know how they work, coz we belong to the group called "retail" traders. We are at their mercy. There's just no way that you can daytrade forex to consistently make money. With forex, you'll have to take a buy/sell and hold approach. Trend recognition becomes an important skill you must develop. Once you figure out what the short to intermediate trend is, you'll trade in that direction until there're signs to tell you to get out. These signs are mostly fundamental; charts will not be useful.

I was telling you the other day about patterns being useful on even intraday charts - I was speaking in the context of an established trend. When I do intraday trade, I'll need charts to time my entry. But I already have an idea where the pair is heading so I trade only in that direction. But the reason I'm trading FX is so that I don't lose touch with the FX market. Not to make money. Not that I can't, it's just that daytrading FX is not at all lucrative. Swing trading or postition trading (where you hold your trades for weeks to months) is the only way to make money from the FX market. But in order to do that, you'll have to have MORE money than what you need to start trading the eminis.

Now, do you see why I said I would do the opposite of what you're planning to do ie. to trade FX first then trade the eminis?

Will let you digest the above before I say more :-)

Feel free to write to me. If I've confused you in any way, do let me know. If you need further clarification to the above, just give me a shout.

You know, the internet offers a wealth of info on trading all kinds of instruments, free of charge. You are already familiar with the basics of trading, so I won't suggest that you read more books. You don't appear to be the reading kind to me :-)

If action is what you want, start by OBSERVING others in action. Visit forums and blogs. NEVER trade others' views and opinions. Just WATCH what they do, and take note of the outcome of their trading decisions. They provide good info on general market sentiments, and sometimes offer very good insights regarding the market and regarding trading. Observe how they develop those insights, and how they use them in their decision making process.

What you want to learn from them is HOW THEY EVOLVE from a novice to a fairly competent trader. The exercise will help you to write comprehensive journal entries. More importantly, as a start, these blogs and forums will tell you things that you should know, which you can't go about finding out if you're clueless as to what you don't know :-)


Go to my blog (www.juzjules.blogspot.com) and focus on the list on the right - my blogroll. Those are good blogs. Most are forex and stock traders. Check out Traderfeed - Dr Brett's archive is a treasure. Take a look and you'll know what I'm talking about.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

TF Trades 12/26


A few changes that I've made:

- Got rid of the PnL column AGAIN. It's bad for me. Proven.

- Took out some indicators. Indicators have been proven to be bad for me too. I started out 6 months ago having some, got distracted, removed them and did much better, and then for unknown reasons, I started to put them back again...and got totally distracted AGAIN

- Started tapereading after trade no. 3 today. Felt much better.

Whenever I feel like I'm totally lost, the first thing I do is to strip my charts of non-essentials. When my charts are almost naked, I'm happy.

For today, I'm bent on blaming indicators, and totally giving myself a pat on my shoulder that I'm losing less - USD 18.80.

Taking into account the 28.80 I've paid my broker, I actually made 1 tick.

Not bad. LOL!!!!

There's always another day.

Friday, December 26, 2008

DOW, S&P500, Nasdaq100, RUT - Anyone Wants To Go UP??

DOW

I have no idea what to make of these:

1) Index is looking dangerously like it's going to be making a measured move down to around 6822

2) That said, it looks like it could break out of the downsloping channel on the upside

3) An Inverted Scallop is taking shape, and if completed, could send DOW up to around 9650 to 9700

4) But...wait...is that a Triple Top in the making???

5) Indicators are all pointing to the index going south

Having said all the above, I'm still IMAGINING that a Diamond Bottom is in the making, and DOW is going to break out of it on the UPSIDE. Hey, everyone's entitled to HOPE....

SPX

DOW's twin...

NDX

Bear Flag plus Partial Rise.

Disastrous.

RUT

If I really want to get calculative, RUT is at least making higher peaks and higher valleys within the upsloping channel.

But Partial Rise looks set to ruin my bullish dream.

Sigh.

TF 30min

Bullish Picture:

TF makes a measured move up to red dotted line (477), then pulls back to blue dotted line (470), bounces up from there towards red solid line (485), then pulls back to red dotted line (477) before going for 495.9.

Ok, that's crap

CLOSER TO REALITY:

TF either:

1) makes a measured move up to red dotted line (477), then reverses, and tumbles all the way to black solid line at 444 (in Cantonese - a chinese dialect, and D's mother tongue - it's pronounced DIE, DIE, DIE - not exactly, but very, very close), or

2) fails to make another close above blue dotted line (470), and tumbles all the way to black solid line at 444.

TF 3min

Ascending Broadening Formation housing a Partial Rise.

SIGH.

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Break

Am in a very bad state, and taking a break from trading.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

TF Trades 12/23



Damage: USD 147.20

PLAY AGAIN TOMORROW!!

Swimming Against The Tide For No Good Reason

TF 3min
I know that everyone has gone on a vacation, and I'm among those that stayed behind to trade a pathetic market like this because we have nothing else better to do.

The market is hopeless. TF is hopeless. And I'm hopeless. The market can continue to torture me, and I'll still wake up everyday waiting for it to open.

Seabloke commented that I have no life.

But trading IS MY LIFE. And right now, it's not treating me very well. After a dozen rounds of getting 1 point and giving back 2, I'm 1.2 point in the red for now. And the only one I'm making happy is, as always, my broker.

2 consecutive losing days has become a norm for me lately. This really must be bad. I've either attracted bad karma by wrapping up the year 1 week too soon, or simply run out of beginner's luck.

I haven't a clue why I'm trading this market. It stumps me. Nothing that I've used before work now. Not that I've been consistently deploying specific set of strategies that I can call my own - but I DO use my brain. And the market's making me feel like I've been sitting on it the entire month. #$$%*(#!

Maybe I need a break. Maybe there really is a time that the smarter folks stay away. I gather that since I'm here trading, I must be an idiot.

My neighbors have been killing me the whole night with their horrific rendition of Silent Night, Oh Come All Ye Faithful and a few other Christmas carols that I love. The very evil part of me have been so tempted to gatecrash, take away their dinner, and watch them cry.

TF is tricking me to go long again. I might seem an easy target (who else would go long the whole time the market was clearly trending downward? For 2 days??) for now, and that's just coz I'm totally losing my mind. "SLOW" KILLS ME!

Am fighting to my last breath. I have 2 more hours, and if I can't find a way to get/break even by then, I'm going to wake up my neighbors singing Auld Lang Syne the way I sang it when I was in preschool.

I hate Christmas.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

TF Trades 12/22


Definitely a terrible way to start the week.

Price crawled throughout, the range for each move so tight that all the hammers and stars just can't make you buy or sell.

At the point that I got out after an 8-point loss, it would have been foolish to chase the downward move, and senseless to go long...

TF is moving so slow it's driving me absolutely nuts!!

In my current state, turning off my computer would be the wisest thing to do.

Damage for the day: 8 Points

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Daytrading Performance Review 2008 (July - December)


Started in early July with USD 28,000.
Total profits earned in 6 months (July - Dec): USD 27,700.

OBSERVATIONS:
- Not having any stop strategy resulted in the largest single trade losses

- Volatility stops are most comfortable for me

- Trading 5 ER2 contracts was highly profitable but highly stressful

- Trading 3 TF contracts is profitable 3 out of 4 days; extremely damaging 1 out of 4 (3k loss in Nov) - which is bad enough for me

- Most comfortable month is the one that has no significant winning days/trades and losing days/trades (this month)

- Tapereading (reading market depth) is the most profitable but produces the least consistent results

- NQ (per contract basis) is the most profitable instrument to play - for me - but I couldn't seem to find a better way to trade it than using the tape (which is highly stressful for me and highly profitable for my broker)

- Trading the full session (from market open to market close) is profitable for me

- Not setting a daily target, or target of any kind, is better for me

- As far as TF is concerned, trading 1 contract is right for me now (NOT 5, NOT 3, JUST 1!!!!)

- ES sucks

- Options suck BIG TIME (ie. not my friend)

Will leave soul-searching for another day. whenever the need arises.

Friday, December 19, 2008

TF Trades 12/19


Annoying market that had me playing intra-candles candle by candle.

ANNOYING!

Crawling in. I'd rather get a good rest and stay wide awake during class tomorrow.

Stupid FOMC, expiration, holidays and everything else that's made the week a pain FOR ME.

Total for the day: +2.5 Points

About Overbought & Oversold Situations and Selling & Buying Opportunities

Something from personal observations and for my future reference:

Overbought (an indication that I can start LOOKING OUT for opportunity to SELL) and Oversold (an indication that I can start LOOKING OUT for opportunity to BUY) situations happen across all market sentiments - Bullish, Bearish and Neutral.
_________________________________________
In A Market Where Sentiment is BULLISH (Fast MA above Slow MA; Slow MA pointing up), and when TICK is at:

-150
:
Oversold; Buy

+150 :
Throwback due (40 to 60% of previous move up); Sell

+250 to +500 :
Overbought; Reversal likely; Sell only when MA10 has come down to 200 from 500.

_________________________________________
In A Market Where Sentiment is BEARISH (Fast MA below Slow MA; Slow MA pointing down). and when TICK is at:

+150 :
Overbought; Sell

-150 :
Pullback due (40 to 60% of previous move down); Buy

-350 to -500 :
Oversold; Reversal likely; Buy

__________________________________________
In A Market Where Sentiment is NEUTRAL (Fast and Slow MAs intertwine; Slow MA almost horizontal), and when TICK is at:

-150
: Oversold

+150
: Overbought

TF Trades 12/18


On TF 3min now: hammers and shooting stars are having a little fun at my expense.

On TF 10 min
: Double top + Evening Star formations are not going to fool me into believing that TF is just going to take a nosedive. Uptrendline is probably going to be able to support price today.

I'm turning in. Haven't slept for 48 hours. Whenever I start talking to myself, I know it's time I get sleep.

Total for the day: +1.2 point

Thursday, December 18, 2008

FX Trades 12/18 & TF

FX

7 positions:


Long: EUR, NZD, CHF, AUD, CAD

Short: USD, JPY, GBP

Am giving the pairs some room to move.

Update (adjusted stop for GBP/CHF...what blunder):



TF



Hopelessly slow.

Doesn't really matter that it looks as if it's attempting to make a 2nd measured move up. Slow sucks.

Resistance at yesterday's high and the generally flat market is keeping me from BUYING. Flat MA needs to stop staying flat.



Hammer on 10min chart.

I always trust a hammer.

But I trust speed more.

RUT has been showing relative strength over DOW, SPX, and NDX consistently for 3 sessions now.

Is that a good thing? I don't know. Maybe not. It's not lifting the others up, and they can't bring it down. Actually, it looks more like a case of lack of leadership. DOW's not leading, and RUT can't decide if it wants to be a sheep or a shepherd.

Is everyone just going to sit back and wait for expiration?

If that's the case then I'm much better off hitting the sack now.

TF Trades 12/17

At 3pm EST:


Granted TF was crawling up the whole session, I had found it difficult to go long (ok, that was silly and redundant - I did mention CRAWLING...). Couldn't hold a short position for long either, coz RUT has been showing relative strength over the other indices.

Another day that really tested my patience.

TF 10min's showing a bull flag of sorts with a rising broadening formation (ie. even if it breaks out of the formation on the upside, it's not likely to go too far):


At this point, I'm looking at a situation where:
1) it's not worth risking what I have already made going long, and
2) unless what's forming within the broadening channel now is a partial rise, it's just reckless to enter short

Definitely time to crawl in.

Total for the day: + 4 points

TF 12/17 - Yawn....




Watching paint dry....

Market looking awfully neutral today; volume, pathetic.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

MICHAEL In E-Mini Daytrading Land

Today is one of those rare days in my life that I woke up feeling good about myself, and that the world is going to my own little Disneyland. For some strange reasons, I got out of bed with a clear blueprint, in my head, of how I'm going to go about trading from now on. Santa dropped by last night perhaps...

Yesterday's result was certainly a tad disappointing; the day before, frustrating. But I hadn't felt defeated. And that is what matters to me - to actually feel good about not getting my way, because I had learnt a little more about myself in the process.

Lord Tedders commented once that what I really need at this point is not as much about finding a method to trade as it is about knowing who I am and what I want.

So very zen, and so plainly filled with wisdom.

While I might not have immediately grasped the essence of that statement LT made, I most definitely have experienced enough frustrations to date to finally appreciate the message he was wanting to drive home.

And because of that, what happened yesterday was actually GOOD. I am now ready to say that I have a plan, after having made all sorts of trading blunders - a result of not having listened to my own inner voice in the first place, and denying what really makes me tick.

But this posting is NOT about me.

This posting is about Michael's E-mini Daytrading class - a 3-day course that began last Saturday and ended on Monday.

See, the one thing about Michael that makes me so fond of him is that he doesn't look like an intraday trader at all, and definitely doesn't fit the description of those that trade the full 9:30 am to 4 pm session (by full I mean he stays throughout, no lunch - supper here for us - break, or tea break). He is always relaxed, calm, and tastefully humorous. I don't know about the others, but I am always looking forward to his stories and jokes everytime I see him.

Even his jokes teach you something.

And that was what his class was about - a concoction of "serious" material and anecdotes, thrown in with a lot of wit and wisdom that kept me captivated from 9am to 5pm on each of the 2-day session.

On the 3rd day, which was a live-trading session, I got to see Michael in action, and confirm my suspicion that the man basically treats the market as his personal playground.

While most novice traders, and many seasoned ones who are FIGHTING the market everyday, clearly see the market as a warzone, Michael probably sees it as a casino.

Fact is, barring the addicts, most go to the casinos for fun. Here in Singapore, we are calling our casinos (under construction now) the Integrated "RESORT". Would anyone actually call a battlefield by that name? Maybe Anfiteatro Flavio, or Colosseum would have been more apt, wouldn't it? And really, why don't we just call the market that, and ourselves gladiators? We have been, afterall, imprisoned in our thick skull, and enslaved by systems, opinions of the experts, and our own greed and fear.

I haven't thought much about Monday's session until this morning. It was when I played it again in my mind that I realized I had somehow anchored the state, and the mood, from that night. That really helped keep me sane during yesterday's session. You see, on Monday night, as we were "watching paint dry" - as Michael had put it - Michael started sharing some Jay Leno one-liners, which I've got to say, were simply hilariously clever. Every other 10 minutes, he would be looking for something to lighten everyone up as we sit watching his 6-point loss. At one point, he asked if anyone brought cards to play! This genius who makes up to 150% per month trading JUST the ES and TF, is simply INSOUCIANT!

And by that I certainly am not implying that Michael is arrogant, or reckless. As a matter of fact, Michael is the most down-to-earth trading coach I've come across. One has to sit with him for 5 months to know that about him - coz 5 months is the duration of his basic trading course.

All who attended his eminis course were graduates from this basic course - during which they were barraged with lectures on the importance of exercising discipline and adhering to rules when trading - certainly the first things that any beginner would have to know and become accustomed to doing.

In his eminis class he shows you how the professionals trade. He shares a great deal about "Intuition". But I'm not going to go further than this on the topic. There's no way I can come close to Michael in expounding the subject in a way that enlightens rather than confuse and mislead.

And if anyone in class did not fully grasp the crux of his message through his "lecture", he or she would certainly have gotten a glimpse,at the very least, of the wisdom of his teachings via the interesting stories he shared - the most engaging ones, i believe, being those containing characters he had met at casinos. And Michael has very cleverly chosen the right stories to tell to the right audience.

One story that stuck was about this Taiwanese tycoon who came to the table with 14 100k-chips and was playing 2 tables simultaneously. He went from one table to the other playing bets of 100k each time and was unflustered whenever his 100k was taken away from him in a blink of an eye. He ended up walking away with one-million in winnings. 100% ROI. Brilliant man who was skilled in the game, and clearly endowed with an edge lacking in many equally skillful players: NERVES. Granted that he's clearly loaded, it doesn't mean that all who have what he has - obscene wealth - are by default, COOL. Many wealthy gamblers are sore losers and would literally lose it once they start losing, and whether they are proficient in the game to begin with is almost of no significance at the point that they let their emotions take the helm.

And that's all I have for spoilers. I have lots to say about the course, but I will stop here. I'm SO glad I have his entire course audio-taped. Heaps of wise sayings there that I can use should I decide to write a book on "how to trade the emins". Hur Hur....And if I'm lazy, I can always just auction the tape on ebay. LOL!!!

Just something to add before I go, something I picked up from the class which is impoartant TO ME, and it's this: one has to know that trading stocks and options is different from trading the futures, and you can't apply the approach you use in trading stocks in trading the futures . To be consistently profitable in trading the futures, you'll have to do some adjustments with respect to the approaches advocated in many old-school teachings - in particular those concerning risk-to-reward ratios. Daytrading the emini futures is unlike daytrading a stock, and vastly different from Swing trading stocks and options. Once you get that, and the idiocyncracies of the futures market, you'll see that using the tradional methods to gauge where your stops should be placed will at best make you a break-even trader.

With instruments as volatile as the TF, ES, and NQ, a saner, if not more sensible and logical way is to use VOLATILITY stops. By using volatility stops instead of fixed stops or stops placed at key resistances and supports, you're always in sync with the market, which is getting ever more erratic, thanks to the ease with which one could access the market and exchanges directly as trading technology makes new fronts ever more frequently.

Michael's class definitely has an artistic touch. Yes, you'll still get the blueprint of his mechanical system (sadly, that's still what most are after - the GURU's holy grail), but if your focus is on that, you'll miss the breathtaking landscape that shapes Michael's PERSONAL trading style, which is, in my opinion, a roadmap that most certainly can be adopted by anyone looking for a trading methodology that he/she could call his/ her OWN someday.

I'm not sure Michael is actually aware that his class is worth many, many times more than the fees he's charging. His stories - real life accounts you have no access to - about those making real money are priceless. His up-to-date (to the last time he entered a trade, which was last Friday) trading account statement (showing a humble $25k initial investment, and a winning rate of 70 - 80%) left on the projection screen for all to see is nothing short of inspirational and phenomenal.

NO ONE, to the best of my knowledge, who teaches trading here, would ever show you this/her entire UPDATED statement spanning months.

What impresses me most is that the reason Michael had started with $25k instead of his usual 6-figure amount was to show his students that one could still make 100% PER MONTH with a $10k to $25k start-up. He's averaged 130% per month over the past 4 to 5 months and it was right there on the screen for us to see.

Michael does stress time and again that you have to have at least USD$10k to trade 1 TF (Russell 2000 e mini futures) contract to give yourself a reasonable buffer.

Brokers offering USD$500 margins are setting their clients up for downfalls. If one hasn't 10k, DON'T trade the eminis YET, until you have the money, the knowledge, and the right attitude. If one has 10K, but hasn't the mettle to use it to work for him/her, DON'T trade the emini futures, for it surely isn't for the faint-hearted.

It's blunt. But it's the only way to get the message across.

You have to be able to afford to lose the 10k in the event that you do something stupid.

The Taiwanese tycoon who walked in with a million and thought nothing about losing a 100k per bet - this is someone who can afford to lose the entire million, and won't lose sleep over it. THAT is the nub of trading. If you're constantly AFRAID to lose, you'll just keep losing.

I'm speaking from personal experience: fear clouds your judgement.

And FEAR breeds GREED. Worth taking a moment to ponder on that.

The 3-days spent with Michael, and seeing him trade live, have brought about a paradigm shift in the way I look at trading. Simply precious.

I highly recommend those in Singapore who're battling it out in the eminis market to check out Michael's class. At the end of the course, you'll definitely have a clearer picture of the instruments you're trading (the emini futures), and a deeper understanding of the concept that trading is ultimately about KNOWING YOURSELF.

Above all, you'll learn from Michael, and see with your own eyes, that trading can be, and SHOULD BE, fun.

And of course, you get his proprietary trading system.

Michael can be contacted at mw@shoyun.com

TF Trades 12/16



Loss: 2 points

You're a plague, FOMC.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

TF Trades 12/15 - Starhub SUCKS!!




Day started REALLY BAD. Was logged out of IB 3 times. A total of more than 120 attempts were made to get back in. Missed all my scalping opportunities, and was forced to put tighter stops in case I was disconnected and couldn't adjust my stops.

First 2 trades were stopped out at a total loss of $780. Went back in twice after that and recovered $300.

Got home 2 hours past midnight to resume trading (and had no more problem with internet connection once I switched back to land connection). Win some, lose some, and was up $380 (see above) by the time the cash market closed.

Minus the $480 loss from the first session, that's a net loss of $100 for the day.

I'm starting to dislike that little gadget that's supposed to save me from the very situation that it got me into today.

STARHUB, you've officially lost my trust. This is the umpteenth time that I can't rely on your crappy mobile connect to keep me online for half an hour straight. Am definitely loooking for better contingencies.

As a side note, you guys really have to stop doing maintenance on weekdays when people are trading!! How many times must your customers beg you to switch back to your weekend maintenance schedule before you'll give a damn?!!

You're no good for bringing around, and you're no good at home!

When I dislike you enough, I'm going to unsubscribe from all your services - cable TV, mobile phones, broadband, EVERYTHING!

Monday, December 15, 2008

TF 12/15 - CAN'T TRADE!!



Nothing's moving.

Charts are frozen.

Attempting to get back on IB....

This really sucks.

Am trading away from home and using a mobile network.

Getting on other sites has not been a problem.

Those using Ninja Trader are getting odd looking charts.

Server problem at US??

Friday, December 12, 2008

TF Trades 12/12



+ 3.1 points

DOW was at negative 200 over, and the other major indices were hovering slightly above fib 61.8 retracement level just prior to open. This is what DOW, and the other indices are doing at 10am EST:


On its 5min chart, TF broke out of consolidation at around 9:50am EST and rallied (for 3 candles) up to around 454, which is the peak from 3:50pm EST yesterday. Clearly a resistance now. About time for a correction anyway. That was almost a vertical run up.

TF 5min


1 min chart is showing a HS. So I'm really doubting that this is just going to be a pullback. Looks like 5min is going to form an inverted 'V' bringing TF all the way back to base (consolidation at 9:30 - 9:50 am EST) by the time the HS formation is completed on the 1min chart.

TF 1min


Even if I don't have a class tomorrow morning (which I do), I'm not staying to play. The second part of the market has gotten too challenging for me lately.

Update (10:40 am EST)



1min is forming what looks like a bull wedge to me, and on 5 min, TF seems to be making an attempt to test its previous peak after having retraced by about 50%.

If TF fails to break above pink and red trendlines, it could turn back down to base. If I were going to go short, I'll wait for a reversal pattern to appear on 1min (shooting stars, bearish engulfing, HS), and a double top or another bearish engulfing pattern to appear on 5min. Confirmation for entry would be a close below the valley (at around 444) between the 2 peaks on 5min.

I'm still not playing. But D is. This is the worst time to trade the TF (for me) coz it's too painfully slow, and can get really psycho.

As I'm typing, 1min is already showing a completed DOUBLE BOTTOM. Bullish! on 5min, this simply means that there's a chance for a 2 second measured move up.

I See Hope

Dow, S&P500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Daily


I TRIED, but I simply can't stay bearish.

I could be totally wrong, and my eyes could be playing tricks on me - all I could see from my charts is an UPWARD breakout from their respective diamond bottoms. Prices are at 2008 low, so the odds are really good that from where they are now, the indices could make their way back up to the beginning (represented by blue dotted lines on my charts) of that nearly-vertical plunge.

Bearish candle from yesterday faded Monday's gap in all the above charts, and with the exception of maybe RUT, all indices seem likely to continue to fall to where fib retracement level of 61.8% meets upsloping trendline on charts (represented by red horizontal line).

For Dow, that's only about 50 points below where it closed yesterday.

But the indices should bounce off support at fib 61.8 once they get there - at least that's what my charts are telling me. Volumes are not impressive, but that's not uncommon in the beginning of a rally. A breakout - if it happens - should be accompanied by increasing volume though, if we are to see prices reaching their potential...

While I'm sure that most of us actually DO want the market to at least stop its nosedive, I also know for a fact that many are probably finding it hard to believe that a market in this state is going to be able to stage any sort of decent rallies. US' mountainous debt and the global economic slump are 2 big nagging issues, and it doesn't seem like anyone is capable of saving the day for now.

But who knows, maybe our heroes are going to be the average Joes and the small businesses; maybe even companies that used to be fat but have learnt to operate lean and resourceful?

If there's anything that history has taught us, it is that we are an unpredictable species fully capable of making quantum leaps.

Classic example: while it was predicted that trains would get faster and train travel increasingly more comfortable (and accessible to the point that it stops right at your doorstep), the industry defied prediction, and started failing in the 50s - 70s.

Air travel took its place.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

TF Trades 12/11



+ 2.7 points

DOW: Just turned into positive territory from double-digit negative.

Am now looking at an almost horizontal MA30 on TF 5min chart...

TF has become really slow in the morning these days....After having sat here staring at the screen for 15 hours, I'm just too worn out to wait for the after 2pm EST action.

FX Trades 12/11 - EUR/USD

EUR/USD 5min


That area in green - kept me glued to my chair for hours.

What started out looking like a bull wedge turned out to be a broadening formation. I went long on the breakout above what was then a wedge, and price turned back down almost as quickly as it had broken upwards. I took my meager profit, and waited to see what was going to happen next.

Well, ok, that was not true. I didn't quite wait to see what happened. I EXPECTED the pair to plunge on a failed pattern, so I went short.

Bad idea. And my stop was placed too far - 24 pips away (my previous profit was just 19 pips). Got stopped out when price went right back up into the wedge and then pierced through the downsloping trendline of the wedge.

It wasn't going up at first, then it didn't want to go down.

Nice.

Turned out that I was looking at a broadening top in the making. When price touched the floor of the formation for the 5th time, crossed all the way over to the ceiling, pulled back, then pierced through the ceiling, I went long.

Not a great idea.
Reasons:
- The bullish candle that pierced through my BB centre line just barely closed above the centreline and had a an upper shadow that's a tad longer than its lower shadow

- Following that was a spinning top, and this should have told me something about the momentum up

- The length of the 3rd candle ie. the one that pierced through the broadening formation was a tad too long

I went in anyhow, and had to get out when I realized that price wasn't going to go up further without a pull back.

I didn't wait to be stopped out. Took my 7 pips and bolted.

Went in long for the last time when the pair bounced off support provided by the upper trendline of the broadening top. Got out after making 32 pips when my 5MA (in red) started peeling itself away from the upper BB, and after I noticed that the move up from the floor of the broadening formation was about the same as the move that led to the broadening top. Think EUR/USD is just going to cruise along the ceiling of the broadening formation, or pull back 60% before advancing upwards. I have a bullish bias on this pair.

What I learnt a little more about trading properly today is that if I ever want to graduate from the beginners' phase, I would have to first overcome the fear of being stopped out, and to adjust my stops to protect profits. An advice that sounds so sensible yet so difficult to follow. I've been afraid of getting stopped out - which is precisely the reason I don't like moving my stops to protect profit - for too long . I don't know what I was thinking, I would rather lose my profit than be stopped out???

Definitely still a hurdle I'm working on overcoming almost on a daily basis.

Second thing I learnt is that I can't trade 2 different directions. When I have a view of where the pair is heading, I get jittery when I trade against that view.

Am sticking to one direction.

Hopefully, I'll remember all that I've said...

I desperately need someone to kick my A**!

Result for the day:
+19 pips on 10k units
-24 pips on 10k units
+7 pips on 20k units
+32 pips on 20k units


Comment From Sergipavl on "Comment Moderation"

2 Comments from Sergipavl:

1) I am watching u

2) Comment moderation adds up to scarse traffic like losses do. I suggest u hide the option allowing others to comment, at all.

You must be having a bad day, Sergipavl, so I'll forgive you for making me feel like a nitwit. "comment moderation adds up to scarSe traffic like losses do" makes absolutely no sense to me.

Consider your suggestion unheeded. I welcome most comments about me. What I don't like is to give those that launch personal attacks at me the satisfaction of having their views aired. I reject also comments from folks that put others (ie. the others who comment) down either unknowingly or deliberately. Comment moderation is to keep hostile and haughty people at bay. My blog is a friendly place.

Since you got me started, and I'm in a good mood today, I'll share how I feel about blogging so far.

3 words describe it all: I LOVE IT.

What I cherish most: advice and friendship from experienced traders who have been big-hearted enough to show me the way. They have helped me in ways that no books or trainers could ever have, and because of them, I don't feel so alone in what seemed at first to be an impossible quest. I've been given tips and information, entire methodologies, moral support, guidance, and most importantly, questions challenging me to find out who I really am (which is probably the first thing anyone considering trading for a living should ask himself/herself).

Lord Tedders, Harry, Moyo, Sage, The Lonely Trader, HPT, Cory, Solfest, FX, Don, Propriety Trader , Common Sense, and Rxforex13 are among those that I want to say a big "Thank you" to. I hold them in high regards, not just for their knowledge of the market and in what they are doing, but also for their willingness to take the time to help others who are just beginning to take the journey they've begun long ago, probably without the kind of help I'm seeing today via blogs and forums and such.

They have been more than inspirational.

I can see that when it comes to trading, especially in FX, you've come a long way. While you can certainly be a kick ass coach and mentor, you've chosen to antagonize the very community I'm assuming you can't live without.

I don't know what your motivations are, and I don't care. I just think it's a pity that you are probably too opinionated to see what you're missing out on the blogosphere.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

TF Trades 12/10 - Happy!!

Update on TF trades



Total +3.4 points

Got in again when I realized that I had missed my buy signals (should have bought at hammer - see chart below).

Am giving myself time to get used to my own system.

That surely came out strange....

TF 5min


Exited before signal was triggered coz TF had broken out of 479.7 resistance (solid black line on chart) without much volume.

Wrapping up. D's preparing for a big presentation and I'm going to be a good little slave girl. Massage time!

TF and FX Trades 12/10

TF



Stopped out on the 1st entry (short) -0.9 point
2nd entry (long) + 1.8 point
Net (for now) +0.9 point

Got out after noticing that BB isn't opening. Clearly TF has met resistance above at around 475.8.

Think TF is going to trade in tight range for a while.

TF 5min


D was surprised I SOLD even though DOW was at 103. I was trading according to MY SYSTEM (yes, I finally have one!!). I wasn't sore about being wrong, coz my loss was a mere 8 ticks. It was a small price to pay to confirm that I'm indeed wrong.


FX - EUR/USD (Long)


This is NOT a revenge trade. It's not like I HAVE TO get something out of EUR/USD.

Ok, it's a revenge trade. I have to get something from the pair.

I should have gotten in at confirmation ( 1.2955) of ascending bottom, but I was out picking D up from work. Came back to see both the ascending bottom and a bull flag, and went in for a quick scalp. Got out after 20 pips coz the pair has clearly made 2 measured moves up (see pink lines showing the almost equal moves) and hit resistance from previous peak. Plus, it's TF time.

EUR/USD 5min


HAPPY!

I'm rid of the EUR/USD curse!

EUR/USD - MISSED OPPORTUNITY!

(Click to enlarge)


$#&*%(*@&#(*~!!!!!!!!

The setup I was waiting for for hours, and I missed it! Why? Coz I lost my head over a discovery while I was backstudying a way to TRADE PROPERLY.

DAMN!! (Sorry, Harry, CAN'T HELP IT!!!!)

If anyone's reading this, if you see a broadening channel near price top (see far right of my chart - that's a broadening channel) on whatever timeframe except the 1min (works beautifully on weekly and daily charts), look for price to touch the lower trendline at least twice, then on the 3rd time it touches, BUY. Price usually breaks out on the upside of this formation. Place your stop slightly below the trendline (a partial rise - which is a 30% to 60 % pull back from the move down to the lower trendline - almost always causes a plunge after price breaks DOWN instead of UP so a stop is a must).

EUR/USD was hovering in the middle of the channel after having touched the lower trendline twice, and I was waiting for it to go back down a 3rd time to buy if it were to bounce off from there.

I blame fate.

I have no luck with LONGING the EUR/USD.

I probably have no luck longing for anything.

Which is why I always DEMAND and COERCE.

Hur Hur Hur....

TF Trades 12/9 - Done



+2.1 points

Done with TF for today. It's starting to feel like a total stranger.

You used to be zesty, TF. Now you're just slow and getting on my nerves. Whatever happened to you?? Keep doing what you're doing now and I'm ditching you for CRUDE OIL!!

TF Trade 12/9 - Sitting & Waiting

I'm tired, distracted, restless, aimless, and sitting on a loss of :


Oh wait, I'm making 17 bucks as I'm typing. PLEASE LET THIS NOT BE ONE OF THOSE SCALLOPS that's going to send TF UP again. It's gotta be my favorite mountains! I mean, DOW is still in negative region for crying out loud!

I'm so restless I'm reading The Lonely Trader's very old postings and thoroughly enjoying his musings...