6J & TF Trades 8/17 (Mon)

Total: USD 195

NQ 5min, TF 5min, 6J 5min

Am definitely making an effort to post my daily PnL and charts only at the end of the week.

Daily postings tend to make me feel like I should trade everyday, and that I should only have GREEN days.

Posting everyday also makes it difficult for me to hang on to winning trades (I did give up holding my first 6J trade today - and ended up scratching after price went 2 points in my favor only to go back temporarily to my entry point - I was aiming for support way below, a very decent 2.5R profit target), and I'm thinking that it's possible and very probable that it's a habit I've cultivated when I was serving in the public sector (complete a perfect report/paper way before deadline, move on to the next assignment, finish the entire year's work way before the end of the year, and bombard my superior with new and impractical ideas).

Today's 6J chart and tape are not any better than last week's (specifically, on the 2 FOMC days). I should have stayed out. But I chose not to. Yes, I am stubborn, and since that's the way I like myself, I'll live with it, and change the way I trade instead. Among the things I did differently was the managing of my stops. I was not as uptight about stop losses as I was last week, and that makes my life a whole lot easier. When I used a 2.5 point stop today, it was a choice I made right at the beginning, and was prepared to part with my money. Last week, I was most reluctant to give a 2.5 point stop (once I hit D's weekly profit target - and D's kinder to me than I am to myself - my stops are no longer a percentage of my capital, but a percentage of my winning for the week) until I was stopped out at a few TICKS so many times, I got fed-up and finally allowed my trade the room it needed - AT THE WRONG TIME.

Having said that, I'm still not risking more than a specific percentage of my 5k capital for each trading DAY.

No posting of charts and PnL for the rest of the week, until the end of the week. Am really curious about how that's going to affect my trading.

TF Trades

After speaking with Michael (refer to previous post here), I decided to take a look at my old friend, the TF. It's just amazingly clear to me what it was doing. I could buy, and I could sell. Market in, market out, and no pondering on exactly where to enter and where to get out. Just the way I used to trade it. All in a few SECONDS work - and I wasn't even intending to trade the US market today. I don't know what to say anymore. A major paradigm shift is in order - back to the previous model!! We'll see.

I'm happy with my private blog. Yes, finally happy. It's a small community - I've invited 50 - I know who they are (based on what they tell me - I choose to be trusting for now), and I think I'm going to be comfortable sharing everything about my "5k project". And those who were too shy to comment before are now starting to talk, and they are GOOD people. I'm a sucker for good people.

In the emails that I've received, some claimed that it took them a while and a lot of courage to hit the "send" button. I understand that in certain cultures, writing to a stranger is...well...a strange thing to do. But I'm no stranger. If you've been reading my blog for a while now, then you know me. If you are REALLY curious about what I'm going to be doing, please drop me an email (julianatse@gmail.com). I might not have the time to reply during this period, but if I don't feel that you're some kind of spy, or that you have ill intentions, and if you are a trader (or someone who's very interested in getting started), I'll send you an invite.

ES (Live) Trade 6/1 (Monday)

Break's over. Haven't a clue why I chose to start on a Monday, and during Globex hours!

Couldn't put in a stop (never traded pre-US-open on the Infinity platform...), and was surprised that my heart actually skipped a beat coz of that... Gone were the days where I was totally comfortable trading without a hard stop...which was just less than 2 or 3 weeks ago?? Breaks are bad!!

D will be sim trading the HOLD strategy for me (D, you promised!) Stats for sim trades will be posted on my sim trade blog...but am keeping my fingers crossed...(D CHEATED ON FRI and traded real money....and took 100 while I agonized over my sim trades!!!). For my own live trades, I might leave a contract to run only after 330pm whenever I see a good "trap" setup.

Chart above shows the candle that I've entered long (black arrow). Covered before candle closed. That's my MO - I'll be happy if I can hold for at least 3 candles. Working towards that. In this case, I was just scalping my familiar "attempt to breakout" setup (ie. not expecting a real breakout), so, no holding.

Given that today's a Monday, I'm not going to be actively looking out for setups. If I can spot them readily, I'll take them. If I have to strain my eyes to identify all the HH HL LL LH and swing highs/lows, I'll stay on the sideline.

After Action Review - I Need To Trust And Trade MY WAY

Yesterday (Apr 20) was a bad day for me, simply because I had lost it again. When I could have taken a net USD 100 gain, I ended the day with a USD 737 loss. The first trade messed up my psychology and things spiralled down from there.

My first trade - I was experimenting with an entry that I wasn't familiar with, and because of that, I had a hard time managing my trade, and exited at a place I usually wouldn't have. Took a 140 loss. Got back in again, using the alien method. While I could have taken a USD 120 gain on the 2nd trade (had I used my own familiar approach, I would have recognized the loss of momentum and gotten out), I ended up getting out at where I've placed my protective stop and took a USD 300 loss.

I could have stopped there. But unlike last week, I refused to accept a losing day. I went in again to fade the down move during the US lunchtime session. It started out fine - I caught the hammer and the move went at least 2 points in my direction promptly. On any other days, I would have taken my profit given that it was just a scalp. I didn't. When I had gone in with the intention of simply fading a trend, at some point during the trade, I had assumed that that was going to be a major 6 point retracement at least. After all, a hammer had formed on the hourly chart, and there were piercing patterns, hammerS, bullish engulfing patterns and all on the 5min. So I stayed. And let a 2 point profit turn into a 6 point loss.

All because I got emotional again. I had traded with a different appraoch (when will I ever learn to just TRUST my own method???), and because of that I couldn't own the loss.

Consecutive losing trades on any given day is an indication that the tone of the market has changed - and I could either take a loss while it's still small (yes, like last week), or deploy a different strategy (I scalp on trending days, and "swing" on other days). Last week was week of chops and range-bound moves, and I did ok with my "swing approach" from tuesday to friday. Yesterday was clearly a trend day, and I made the mistake of using a loose stop, and then of overstaying in a counter-trend move.

Mistake number 3: staying with ES on a trending day. I can't handle ES on trending days. I'm used to TF's nice 3 - 6 long-bodied bearish candles down with 38.2% retracement on a trend day. With ES, I love the choppy days, coz I just somehow grasp ES' choppy moves.

It's a day full of mistakes that I can either learn by heart and move on, or get grumpy and all and take a break for the next few days. The latter is clearly out - I don't remember having really taken a break even when I felt ,at my lowest point ,that I simply couldn't go on anymore. I don't know if that's a virtue or a vice - that I don't know when to STOP. What I do know is that I'm not easily defeated. And that's an understatement. Maybe things would have been better had I learnt to back off sometimes. But I don't stand down. I can't. I would have to be a different person to do that.

So I'm going back in today. Not doing any analysis of any sort. I'm not going to guess where the market's heading. It could move up higher than its previous high, or it could reverse to look for 660, it doesn't matter. What matters is the price action within the day - you can never know for sure if the bears or the bulls are going to win until the battle's over, so you take cover when your side is clearly no longer in the upper hand. Don't hang around and become a casualty. Know that something's NOT looking right, and bail before the ultimate worst happens. That's what I always aim to do.

I'm going to be scalping mostly - I seem to have lost touch and apparently need a lot of practice to learn how to RUN again - coz as soon as my application to Infinity Futures is approved and my funds wired, I'm going to be trading multiple contracts. I have to accept that every individual is different - with me, I can never trick my own brain into thinking that a 100 loss is a 1k loss. When I'm faced with a situation that I can easily lose my shirt, I WILL run. Otherwise, I won't. Just me.

Again, I won't post my P&L for yesterday until end of this week. All reds pisses me off. And I can't trade when I'm angry with myself.

Eur Futures (6E) Trades 4/7 - Clobbered But Still Alive & Kicking

Trading is the hardest thing I've ever done.

Was trading the Euro futures today.

1st trade was a scratch. Broke even. Well, made 6 bucks actually. Ha Ha.

2nd trade went ok - I was making a little more than 20 bucks, so I held it. Without warning, price went south (I had gone in long). I followed my rule, and covered when it fell through support. I usually would have taken a smoke break after closing a position. But that was a strong support that price went through, so, I sold right away. In less than 1 second, price shot back up and closed above support and the next candle opened above its close. Again, I followed my rule, and went out at a loss that was bigger than the first one.

I was then in the red by 467 bucks.

Thought I saw a signal to go in long again, so I went in. At one point, I was up 300 bucks. I'm so used to seeing big numbers that I have become numb to them. I held on, and believed in the pattern that I was seeing.

As fate would have it, price went plummeting after forming mountains after mountains that had higher peaks and higher valleys giving you the illusion that we were on an uptrend. Had I stepped away from my screen, and looked at my charts from a distance, I would have seen we were trading in range and it's only a matter of time that price would break out of range to start a trend.

I lost 1200 in that single trade.

All in all, I was about 1700 in the red.

When price fell to one of the major supports and started forming hammers after hammers, I went in long again.

I kept watching price plunge through one support after another, but it had its way of making me believe that indeed had wanted to go up. All the hammers and dojis failed miserably.

My morning star never came. I wouldn't blame it. I realized then that price can continue to fall through supports as long as bears don't see the need to run. What is 2 days of sell-off, compared to days of rallies before that? Absolutely nothing.

None of today's trades was about revenge trading. I wasn't angry with anything, I just didn't feel defeated enough to call it quits.

What I learnt about myself today:

• I can let profits run ONLY when trading FAMILIAR patterns
  
• I over-analyze
• I should have kept running - if I choose to continue to trade, I'll have to be prepared to run whenever price is not doing what I expect it to do. The only time I can put running behind me is when I have NIL position.
• There's only so much that knowledge can do for me

Am staying with the eur today. Once I see the pattern I had wanted to see all day today, I'll still take a trade. But this time, I'll run when I have to.

I'm down USD2400 for the day.

ES 4/6

I'm actually bullish (short-term) on the ES (when price is so low, all you can see on the charts tend to be hammers and morning stars and such...the hanging men and evening stars are all far, far away on top...given that you can't really trust a bearish pattern at price low, the choice is rather obvious..) ...provided 800 support holds. If it does, I can see it going up to 950.

I'm not selling the ES. And I'm not buying before a decent correction (something between 825 and 800). If I'm better off staying on the sideline during the US session, I will. After all, I've done my job today, and I'm not going to let market take away my money trading signals I can't trust.

Update: ES stopped at 848 and coming down. A Fib retracment of 38.2 will bring it to around 823. If price were to move back up from there, I'll probably buy.

Futures Trades 4/3

Calling a day before I start doing something foolish. I will no longer stare at the screen for 5 hours. It's bad for my eyes and REALLY bad for my brain.

6E & ES Trades 4/2 - W4 Inside Bar (ES) & Full Target "W" (6E)

"M" shape (Wave 4) followed by an Inside Bar (Also a Resistance-Turned-Support plus Inside Bar setup - a valid one since the inside bar closed above support and the next bar opened above). Both on ES & TF

I bought the ES. Gave TF a miss coz I was watching 6E as well and 6E seemed ready to break out of downtrend line...anyway, I have only 1 brain, and I'm not greedy.

I didn't hold the trade for a point...holding's just not in my blood...YET. I need a blood transfusion.

Both are forming wave 5 now, and given that both had hit their respective full target (161.8 for ES and 261.8 for TF), and both had pierced yesterday's high, it's better to sit and watch where an ABC correction would bring them. TF seems to be leading ES for now. Anyway, they take turns.

Euro Futures (6E)

Highlighted in yellow was where I entered long. I didn't hold the trade, as usual. And as fate would have it, price hit a full 423.6% target before it did a decent throwback (the "handle" part of the Cup with Handle pattern).

I NEED NEW BLOOD.

For today:

Spending just a total of 1 hour watching charts is indeed much more productive. Thank you, Lord Tedders!!

I'm going to call it a day. Physically tired. I really need to start getting more than 3 hours of sleep per day.

ES, TF & 6E 4/1

ES

We should get a bounce off 770. 800 has been breached yesterday, clearing the way for ES - it's likely heading for 830 and beyond.
Volatility Stop: 4 - 5 points

TF

Bouncing off at 405 to test 430, I think.
Volatility Stop: 2.5 - 3.5 points

Euro (6E)

Seems possible for 6E to hit Fib ext 138.2 (1.2930) today.
Game Plan: Trading down mostly
Volatility Stop: 2 points

TF Trade 3/31

Lost 2.5 points in a single TF trade. Just one of those days that I shouldn't trade. Couldn't read my chart.

I'm going to have to make a decision as to when I want to trade. Can't do 16 hours a day. Burnt out. Sat on my hands almost the entire session, while fighting the urge to just leave my screen and turn in. If I don't trade, I feel guilty (about being LAZY). When I force a trade, I feel HORRIBLE. Catch 22 situation.

Leon: Thanks for your note and suggestion. Unfortunately, I'm really bad with the whole scaling in and scaling out thing. I'm a simple single-or-multiple contracts in and out person. I'm also a control freak - I can't let anything run on its own. So I'll end up micro-managing the remaining contracts anyway :-)

Cory: Thanks for the link. My cats are not eating coz they reacting to the antibiotics after surgery. I'm worried about Al's throwing up coz he has other problems and bacteria could get into the major organs. Whenever he's sick, my world becomes a really dark place.

ES, TF & 6E 3/31

ES

Game Plan: Scalp within 760 - 800 range
Volatility Stop: 4 - 5 points

TF

Game Plan: Scalp within 410 - 440 range
Volatility Stop: 2.5 - 3.5 points

6E

Game Plan: Scalping within the 1.3180 to 1.3400 range
Volatility stop: 1.5 - 2 points

6E & TF Trades 3/30

TF 5min

Can't complain about the market. It's one that I'm familiar with. Saw my setup and went in with a TIGHT HARD STOP (D was shocked I wouldn't even give it 1 point). Bad move. I forgot that I wasn't trading Euro futures (which I'm not familiar with YET, and it can get crazier than TF).

With TF, hard stops have always resulted in losing days. Mental stops and sniper style play have resulted in winning days 90% of the time. Days that I don't know where my stop and target is are my blowup days. Used to happen once a month. For the past 3 months, it's happened more frequently. I must have hit the wall.

The thing with TF is that I know it better than I know any other futures. I don't have to trade it the "proper" way to get 1 to 3 points a day.

I have my monthly getaway tomorrow - I'm seeing a human friend! I'm not going to fret over my blunder, and am going to get my beauty sleep. At least I learnt something about balance today. I seem to have to swing from one extreme to the other to find it.

Anyway, it's a good day. I love 6E, and I love TF. But I have to use different strategy with each. And I really have to stay with the market like I did before. These days, it's just difficult to focus with all the other things that need my attending to. I am desperately looking forward to days when I can sit here from market open to market close again.

TF Trade 3/27

It's been a long day. Had barely 3 hours to sleep coz we had to drop Al and Keish at the clinic for dental surgery early in the morning. Then there were some other matters to settle before we headed for the registry of marriage. Pilot was dashing, and MJ was breathtakingly beautiful. Pilot forgot the ring. ***Faint**

Picked up Al and Keish and spent the evening monitoring their condition. Al was pretty pissed and demanded lots of attention.

By the time we were done with dinner, market had opened for 30min. I looked at my charts and felt that I hadn't the urge to trade at all. ES had been going down and was continuing to go down in a downward channel. But I didn't feel like selling. A market that wants to plunge doesn't look like this. But I can't buy either. Little wonder that I wasn't motivated to get in.

I continued to watch both ES and TF, and was wondering if ES would form one of those DBW-ABW kind of pattern - after all price was at day's low. When ES broke above the channel, I was ready to get in. Not on ES though. Turned my focus to TF, saw the strong hammer and what looked like an inverted head and shoulder. I noticed that it was a little slow in catching up with the ES - what mattered was that it wasn't diverging.

I had stopped analyzing long-term trends, but I've been watching charts and can't help it that my brain starts to register patterns. I am not bearish. And that means I can only buy. When I see a bullish setup, I see no reason to just stay on the sideline.

Got in on TF and it did a typical throw back to the downtrend line that it had broken out of. I sat. As long as price doesn't close below the trendline, I stay. Got out after TF formed a ralatively strong bullish candle, followed by a candle that moved up too quickly for my comfort. Anyway, price was hitting a target level (one that I would use for exit if I were playing a DBW-ABW pattern) which was in fact a resistance, so there was little sense in holding any longer.

Am calling it a day. I hadn't planned on trading in the first place coz my energy level's really low, and I'm distracted by Al's condition. He has wobbly legs. And Keish's not eating.

ES & TF Trades 3/25 - After Action Review

ES 5min

As I mentioned, I was looking to buy after ES hit its high of the day at 823.5, and has done a 38.2% throwback. The basis was that it's better to to assume that the uptrend is intact until newer data says otherwise.

When price made a lower low and a lower high after coming down from 823.5, followed by a retest of 823.5 - which failed, indicating at the same time the failure of an Inverted Scallop - and when my indicators started to give a SELL signal, my thinking was that the odds of ES breaking its high on an Inverted Scallop pattern has just gone down. That, plus ES' hitting 211.8% and stalling there (138.2 and 211.8 have been the levels that stopped ES - something I observed since I started trading the ES in early Feb this year) made me decide that it'd be worth taking the signal to sell.

ES ended up pulling back by 2 bullish candles. On other occasions, I would have waited to see if the candle that followed would be a bearish one that would take price back down, resuming the downtrend. But ES had opened within the bollinger band on the 2nd pullback candle. If I'm selling at a point that's beneath the lower BB, I don't want to see a candle open and close anywhere within the BB. I covered my short.

What I Think I Had Done Right

1) Looking at only the most recent price action, and focusing on what price IS doing.

2) Looking at price pattern - a 2nd leg up was expected after wave A-B-C-D-E, and when the supposed 2nd leg failed to break the high at 823.5, I switched my focus to look for a confirmation of a FAILED pattern. That confirmation came when ES punched through support at 815, followed by 3 consecutive closes. The signal from my indicators to sell came after the 4th close. I sold on the candle after the trigger candle.

3) Sticking to bailing rule - Given that one of the basis that I've entered was price falling out of a BB that's turned south, my reason to get out of trade would be if a candle were to open and close within the BB. I exited my trade when ES gapped up and candle opened within the BB.

What I could have done better

I should have waited for the 2nd pull back candle to close completely before bailing. I had covered near the top of the candle and taken more loss than I would have had I covered at the close of the candle. But this is more about following my rule of covering at closing of candles than about the difference in the dollar amount lost.

TF 5min

The rationale to sell TF was much simpler - I simply took the signal from ES, since TF has not been diverging from the former. TF has a tendency to follow the ES, except that its move is usually more exaggerated when it's REALLY moving. I have both charts on because I know I can always take a trade on the TF if I were to have missed one on the ES.

On the TF, I didn't get a signal to sell at all until after I've closed out my ES position. Which was a good thing actually. Getting in on a fresh signal gives me the best risk to reward ratio.

I had gotten out on the 3rd bearish candle on a smooth ride down - which took price down to 161.8 without retracing at 138.2 (characteristic of TF to do that anyway). The candle that followed was a tiny bullish one - expected, once TF hits 161.8. I would have gotten out at this point whether or not I was looking to cover my loss in the ES trade. My plan was to get back in after a slight retracement to 138.2 (for TF, that would usually be in 2 small bodied bullish candles).

What I could have done better

I should have stayed put at my screen during the anticipated pullback at 161.8, instead of going out to get my nicotine fix! When I came back 5 MINUTES LATER, TF had gone back down in a long bearish candle. Following it was a doji. I hesitated at the sight of a doji, only to see the next bearish candle bringing price down to support at 419. That was the move I had wanted to catch before I called it a day. Missed it, and was too tired to trade the after 2pm session, and had to wrap up for the day.

ES & TF Trades 3/25 - Truly Happy!

Above is my chart setup. I watch both ES and TF for a few reasons which I will talk about in more details after I get a good night sleep, which I missed last night.

Got home an hour after market opened. Didn't feel like I've missed anything. I wouldn't have chased that move up anyway.

Was waiting for a signal to BUY, but got a signal to SELL on ES instead. Again, will elaborate tomorrow morning (it's now 1:38AM in Singapore). I took the signal and sold. Got out when price opened above BB. When ES went back down again, I hesitated to chase. My signal has become too old. Meaning that my stop loss would be too far away to make it a worthy trade.

On TF however, my signal to sell was fresh. I sold at the candle indicated on my chart above. Covered near 161.8 coz, well, it's 161.8, and it's common for price to retrace. And I had enough to cover my first loss. I don't want the first day of pure robotic trading to end on a bad note. Thought I'll get in again on TF after that. Went for a smoke break. Came back and was a little disppointed to see that TF hadn't waited for me.

I'm turning in now coz I'm beat. And I don't want to trade when I'm drowsy.

Most importantly, I finally have a net positive day again after...forget it, I don't even remember the last time I had one.

I'm happy. My heart hadn't raced at all throughout. My first loss hadn't affected me at all. I had gone out without hesitation once my stop was hit (a mental stop - a stop nonetheless). I took the 2nd trade without hesitation, and let my profit run although TF hesitated a little on the candle after the one that I entered on. Waited for one more candle, and saw objectively that 161.8 was near, and thought strategically about taking care of my capital first. Something that I wouldn't have been able to do had i been scalping.

This is a breakthrough for me in terms of overcoming my fear of holding a winning trade beyond 1 candle, and my fear of taking a loss.

Definitely going to give my "system" a chance.

Will provide details on my setup tomorrow if I get a chance. Another busy day...

I Want Out

Nursing a scalp gone really bad. My focus now is on exit. Not planning anything else until I've closed my position. And I definitely will close it today. Even a gapped up star on daily chart will not make me hold the short position. We're no where near price top. An evening star only works there (price peaks). What I'm seeing on both daily and hourly charts are telling me a rather bullish story (now, that sounds really familiar....did I say that a couple of days back??? why the hell did I keep selling then???)

I've mismanaged my trade big time. And I've broken my number one rule about not keeping a trade overnight.

I can continue to hold the trade and HOPE for the best - and if the best happened, I would have learned nothing. Or I could bail now, take a USD1k loss, and resume practice on scalping the way I did before. It's been 6 months now, and I still can't repeat what I did in Sept/Oct last year. Back then, running was my forte. Probably has something to do with the fact that I was entering on 5 contracts (ER2) each trade. I remember saying back then that I had wanted to reduce to trading just 1 contract so I can learn to HOLD a position, but was wary of a very likely consequence ie. that I'll get sloppy and not run when I'm wrong. 6 monts later, I'm living that very nightmare. Self-fulfilling prophesy, maybe. But it's looking more like I actually DID know myself very well then.

Now, I'm simply baffled. I don't know for sure why I had to fix what isn't broken. Perhaps it was the profit amount that freaked me out. It's extremely unproductive to think that if you can earn that much, you can also lose that much, coz I hadn't gotten there by gambling. I acknowledge that the market needs to be willing to move in the first place, but the rest is really just pure money management and focus. I was so willing to scratch whenever price didn't move in my direction immediately, or when it went against me by ticks! I was also willing to take ticks for profits. On rare occasions, I got a few points in under a minute. I always depended on the market to give me whatever it wanted to give within that single 3 or 5 min candle, and I was out.

Maybe what I really need to do is to go back and take a look at how I traded then. My style was certainly a lot less complicated. I look at chart patterns and only trade 2 to 3 of them, and I kept my eyes on the key S & R levels. And with the ER2 (TF now), I would use fib to buy/sell on retracement on a trending day. That was all. Nothing else. I didn't care about pivot points. And I didn't care about previous days' highs and lows. As far as I was concerned, they would have been key S & R on the higher timeframe, which I would plot on my 3 or 5 minute chart. Entries were ususally based on 1 min. I was able to focus on the "NOW" - no prediction on whether support or resistance was going to hold coz price was at historical high/low and such, or that it had gone up/down for days so it ought to be retracing, etc, etc.

Seriously, are other human minds able to process that much in a matter of minutes or even seconds? Am I the only one that has a brain that can only focus on ONE thing at a time? In scalping, for me, it would be on what price is doing NOW (eg. price is at support, and has formed a hammer; the next candle opens below the open of the hammer and is moving down - so the only thing I'll be thinking is that price is behaving oddly, and that I should just wait to see what happens next).

I really want to get out of this confused state. I have a very short attention span (I can't even stay depressed for more than 24 hours for crying out loud), and I'm wondering why I haven't gotten sick of being confused yet!!

ES & TF Trades 3/6

Total for today: USD 157

Just when you think that ES is getting choppier by the day, TF is both choppy and crazy. I really have nothing much to say about my trades. It's been difficult to find entries for ES coz the tape's simply not giving much signals. Looking for setups from charts means hours of sitting and watching. TF is totally impossible to trade based on tape. Charts are not looking pretty either. In fact, ES charts are really starting to look prettier.

TF has become a freaky stranger.

SIGH.

I'm calling it a day. My heart can use some rest. Don't wanna die in my sleep (Check out Sage's Matter of The Heart).

ES 3/4

SPX Weekly

What I'm seeing: the next real support at 595 - 600

SPX Daily

What I'm seeing: we are in wave 3 of corrective wave Z.

What that means to me is that we still have a long way to go in the current downtrend. ADX could always go up to 50. It's done that before anyway.

ES Hourly

What I'm seeing: we are at wave 4 & 5 of wave v (which seems to be taking the form of an ending diagonal) of wave III (see SPX daily above).

Elliot aside, it simply means that I see ES moving up to 700 resistance and reversing to look for bottom at floor of green broadening wedge. Using wave 1 as seed, Fib ext 261.8 at 655 is my target for now.

That's the smaller picture. Don't quite want to think about the bigger one yet.

ES 3min

I'm going with the scenario that ES will trade up to 700, at most to 709, then move down beyond the low for today (681.85). It could trade within that range (681 - 709) during the pre-US market hours, and if it's trading in the upper region of that range by the time the active trading session begins, it's only going to get smacked down (after all, everyone loves to fade a gap, especially a gap up during a time like this). To where? I don't know. 655 I think. Just something for me to work with. Not entirely impossible. In order for us to move up, we need to go down big time first. This inching down everyday is not going to help.

Game Plan & Rules

Will trade the rally up if ES comes back down to white dotted uptrend line (on 3min chart above). Else, will give it a miss until it hits the high for the day. Then I'll be looking to short. I'll go long only if it trades in diagonal triangles (where wave 4 overlaps wave 1).

As usual, NOT going to hold any loss for more than 1 point. Will exit position once reason for getting in is no longer there.

TF & ES Trades 2/3 - Another Day That I Should Have Just Stood On The Sideline

It dawned on me today that skipping lunch is very, very bad. I hadn't realized that before because D has always come home early enough for dinner (8 - 9 pm). He came out of a meeting late today, and by the time he got home, my blood glucose level had gotten so low I was seeing double, and my heart was not beating right.

To cut a long story short, my heart was racing even before US market opened, and I was putting up with a gastric pain. When my trade went against me, I couldn't think straight. Because my heart was pounding, I couldn't help but question the validity of my entry the whole time I was in trade. I kept having to tell myself to focus on my charts and to stop thinking that my physical condition was a reaction to a trade gone wrong - coz it hasn't.

After having sat on what was a very typical loss of 3 to 5 points - and missed getting out at minimum damage thrice - I felt so stretched I wanted to give up trading forever. I pressed on until I got out slightly better than breaking even (I had shorted TF, and where I got out was barely a point above the low of the day).

I am a sore loser, and I don't want to lose, coz I don't want to have to get sore.

I know, I'm terrible. Some days, I just can't help but be me.

Am calling it a day. I can't think with a palpitating heart, a gastric pain, a bad throat, and a spinning head.

D has set an alarm on my mobile to remind me to take my lunch. Got me bending over laughing, but I gather that's the only solution for now.

Strange that I actually remembered to do his laundry, feed my cats, clean up their litter box, but forgot that I needed to eat.

It's not an easy day to trade today, and I chose to trade anyway. I have itchy fingers and I don't know what to do with them.

TF is definitely looking for support. Momentum is clearly down, but price simply won't stop moving up. On 5min, TF looks like it really wants to get back up into the broadening wedge.

Today's ES and TF trades: USD 290

TF 5min

TF Trades 2/2 - A Day I WANT To Remember

I'm never going to check out news again during trading.

Here's a perfect bump-and run trade that I did not take (bad news - that I actually paid attention to - totally to be blamed), although I did anticipate TF to pull back to 445:

TF 1min

It was a very safe entry given that TF has bounced up from support at 436 after a throw back to that level, and TICK was in negative region turning up. My stop would just need to be slightly below downtrend line - 435 would have been far enough.

For bump-and-run, the measure rule is that you take the highest point from where the previous downtrend began, and use that as your exit target. In this case - 435.5

That's a good 8 to 9 point profit.

Definitely THE day to remember.

I took a scalp down from below 435 instead. 7 ticks and I didn't feel good about staying any longer. I hadn't put in a stop. If pattern turns out to be an inverted scallop instead, I'll be screwed.

All in all, it's a happy day!

Done trading. Will leave overtrading for another day. Market's looking for support, and I don't want to be chopped.
Throat's annoying me. Seabloke's warning me earlier today that my cough is probably going to last 100 days in all now that it's gone into its 30th is not helping at all! Why didn't I catch my doctor before Chinese New Year??

Cough aside, I'm in a terribly good mood. So, someone's getting a nice massage!

Profit: USD 400