Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Chart Setups (from ES 3/9)

Double Bottom (Wash and Rinse)
(ES 3min)

Reasons to enter long:
- 670.75 was day's low then

- End of wave 5
- Double-bottom Market Structure Low (MSL), which indicates strongly a change in trend

- Resistance is 10 points away (shooting star on the left)


Trigger
Candle: 3rd candle of MSL
Entry
: 0.25point above high of trigger
Stop
: 0.25 point below low of MSL
Exit
: Fib ext 161.8 (before entry, check for nearby resistance. If it's too near, don't bother entering) or when Stoch does a bearish crossover at overbought

3 Rising Valleys
(Same chart as above)
Reasons to enter long:
- 2nd higher low is a double-bottom MSL
- bears covering should create quite a good run (I know, coz I was holding a short, and covered once I noticed the higher low and the double bottom MSL! %&*(#$!!)
- Pivot is above, open is above, high of day is above, and it's the time of the day that ES should be trading towards those...

Trigger Candle: 3rd candle of MSL
Entry
: 0.25point above high of trigger
"Safer"
Entry (totally subjective - to me, it's higher risk as my stop would still be at the MSL) : 0.25 point above the previous peak
Stop: 0.25 point below low of MSL
Exit
: Fib ext 261.8 (Nearest resistance is shooting star on the extreme left, which is about 3 points away from fib 261.8, so, I would use 261.8) or when Stoch does a bearish crossover at overbought

In the 2 examples above, stochastics and RSI have both visited oversold and turned up from there (best to avoid those that have not first gone down to oversold). Decision to take trades should be based on price actions (see "reasons to enter" above) and not on indicators though.

Both are setups that I'm adding to my "trade setups" warehouse. I didn't trade them yesterday. But I know they almost always work - I've sat through them while holding short positions often enough to know. Everytime I saw these patterns, I instinctively knew I was going to have to ride a potential loss of 8 - 12 points. Then I'd curse myself for not trusting a pattern I've seen over and over, and for continuing to hold my shorts. For most of them, I've gotten out with a small gain that is totally not worth the pain and COST of waiting.

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