Wednesday, March 11, 2009

About Fighting The Trend

Trader Tao wrote:

I am a new trader, I agree that today is that kinda trendy day. buy and hold till the end. Don't quite understand why you fight with the trend and short it?

I read you blog recently, you are a great scalper to me, pls show me some tricks. I happen to use ToS platform too, if you bring up a chart of $UVOL-$DVOL, you will see the retracement never made a real reveral on net volume.

I haven't gone long, Trader Tao, coz I had missed the window that offers good setups for a long entry. I started looking at my charts only 3 hours before the US session began. I could have gone in after ES broke out of 692 of course, but I was wary of overhead resistance at 695, and a few more above it all the way to 723. When the pole of a bull flag was formed by 10am EST on the 3min, and 2 strong bullish candles were also seen on the 10min, I could have gone in long, but by then, I was already looking out for a short setup. PLUS I was even more wary of those resistances.

Like I said, I'm primarily bearish. I did acknowledge that it was going to be difficult to go in short after realizing that ES has been trending up quite nicely for half a day prior to market open. But that didn't change the fact that ES is still not on an uptrend. I don't want to simply react to what was happening, especially when I didn't know where it was going. I could pick a level that I think it's going to be stopped in its track, and put in a short entry there, and if it doesn't stop, so be it.

I wouldn't chase a move like yesterday without the proper setup. I had used stops in my shorts precisely coz I was prepared for ES to continue to go up to test resistance. In a nutshell, I was looking out for short setups only and passing up other opportunities. One has to stick with one's plans and rules. So I stuck to mine, and missed the run up. I'm fine with that. What happens next is to reassess the market and apply the same rules and plan to trade it.

Yes, I am much better at scalping than any other mode of trading. But it's been very tiring following the tape, and I can't do it continuously. When I get really drained, shit happens. I am looking for a calmer way to trade - cool is always good in trading. Adrenaline causes blow ups. I want to keep a cool head and a healthy heart to FEEL what the market's doing. Following the tape and scalping doesn't allow me to see the bigger picture. Above all, it doesn't allow me to put in a stop (no time!!). I'll still scalp from time to time, especially during the quieter hours. But my focus now is on the learning process, and not so much on making money. I will still take scalp profits whenever I see fit of course. But I'll avoid scalping as a method.

I don't have any tricks for scalping. I read charts and I read the tape, just like most scalpers do. How I go about doing it I've done a little explaining on my recent entries.

I don't look at up and down volume. If there's a follow through on a move, the price patterns will tell. I don't need to be able to predict accurately what's going to happen next to trade. In anycase, I can make all the right prediction and NOT make money, and I can make the wrong predictions and still make money. I was clearly going against trend yesterday, but like I mentioned yesterday, I could have taken the 3 point scalp profits a few times had I chosen to take them. Or I could have been right, and went long after I get a confirmation, and sat through a 5 - 7 point retracement each time. I mean, the flag pole was formed in the first 30min of the trading session and that was it. The rest of the run was unimpressive at best.

Things tend to look so obvious on hindsight. But I'm not one who looks back and regret not having taken a trade, or ran too early. The only thing I absolutely dislike, is not having traded my plan and respected my rules. Coz that tells me I'm still a lousy trader, and I still have a very long way to go.

Sorry for the long response. Just need to set the record straight that I'm never out to fight trends. If I were indeed fighting anything, it was D. He came home telling me repeatedly that Citi has made money, and I kept saying that I heard him, and that I actually KNEW about Citi's news, and I kept selling LOL!

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