ES (Simulated) Trade 3/23

ES 5min

Above shows ES hitting Fib EXT 423.6% (seed highlighted) before 4am EST. I said I wasn't going to do prediction of any sort, but this was really hard to ignore.

At 930am EST, I drew the 2nd Fib EXT with the seed shown below. I wasn't expecting ES to hit 261.8 full target. I often see ES being stopped by 138.2 and 211.8.

The chart shows also where I entered my one and only ES trade. It was not exactly the best entry, given that 800 was just right on top and tested once only. But given that the day had been trending so strongly up, I thought what the heck.

With real money, I would have taken my profit at the close of that long bullish candle. That was 800 resistance, and 138.2 target. I like to take profit at 138.2. BUT given that the day has trended strongly, yada yada yada, I decided to aim for 161.8.

I could have gotten out at the close of the bearish candle that followed that long bullish one, but I wanted to get into the habit of letting my system do its work. For now, human intervention is forbidden. Stop took me out.

I said it was a lousy entry because I hadn't waited for ES retrace to Fib EXT 100% first. For it to break such a strong resistance, it needed a launch pad like Fib 100. Anyway, that was the 4th trade of the day, and I decided to call it a day.

All in all, I took 6.3 points for 6E (Euro futures), lost 1.7, lost another 1.8 on 6J (Yen futures), and lost 2 points on ES, leaving me with 0.8 point gain. Ha.

Will put up the charts for 6E and 6J in the next post.