Nursing a scalp gone really bad. My focus now is on exit. Not planning anything else until I've closed my position. And I definitely will close it today. Even a gapped up star on daily chart will not make me hold the short position. We're no where near price top. An evening star only works there (price peaks). What I'm seeing on both daily and hourly charts are telling me a rather bullish story (now, that sounds really familiar....did I say that a couple of days back??? why the hell did I keep selling then???)
I've mismanaged my trade big time. And I've broken my number one rule about not keeping a trade overnight.
I can continue to hold the trade and HOPE for the best - and if the best happened, I would have learned nothing. Or I could bail now, take a USD1k loss, and resume practice on scalping the way I did before. It's been 6 months now, and I still can't repeat what I did in Sept/Oct last year. Back then, running was my forte. Probably has something to do with the fact that I was entering on 5 contracts (ER2) each trade. I remember saying back then that I had wanted to reduce to trading just 1 contract so I can learn to HOLD a position, but was wary of a very likely consequence ie. that I'll get sloppy and not run when I'm wrong. 6 monts later, I'm living that very nightmare. Self-fulfilling prophesy, maybe. But it's looking more like I actually DID know myself very well then.
Now, I'm simply baffled. I don't know for sure why I had to fix what isn't broken. Perhaps it was the profit amount that freaked me out. It's extremely unproductive to think that if you can earn that much, you can also lose that much, coz I hadn't gotten there by gambling. I acknowledge that the market needs to be willing to move in the first place, but the rest is really just pure money management and focus. I was so willing to scratch whenever price didn't move in my direction immediately, or when it went against me by ticks! I was also willing to take ticks for profits. On rare occasions, I got a few points in under a minute. I always depended on the market to give me whatever it wanted to give within that single 3 or 5 min candle, and I was out.
Maybe what I really need to do is to go back and take a look at how I traded then. My style was certainly a lot less complicated. I look at chart patterns and only trade 2 to 3 of them, and I kept my eyes on the key S & R levels. And with the ER2 (TF now), I would use fib to buy/sell on retracement on a trending day. That was all. Nothing else. I didn't care about pivot points. And I didn't care about previous days' highs and lows. As far as I was concerned, they would have been key S & R on the higher timeframe, which I would plot on my 3 or 5 minute chart. Entries were ususally based on 1 min. I was able to focus on the "NOW" - no prediction on whether support or resistance was going to hold coz price was at historical high/low and such, or that it had gone up/down for days so it ought to be retracing, etc, etc.
Seriously, are other human minds able to process that much in a matter of minutes or even seconds? Am I the only one that has a brain that can only focus on ONE thing at a time? In scalping, for me, it would be on what price is doing NOW (eg. price is at support, and has formed a hammer; the next candle opens below the open of the hammer and is moving down - so the only thing I'll be thinking is that price is behaving oddly, and that I should just wait to see what happens next).
I really want to get out of this confused state. I have a very short attention span (I can't even stay depressed for more than 24 hours for crying out loud), and I'm wondering why I haven't gotten sick of being confused yet!!
13 comments:
From what I know, scalping is a strategy that works on bigger accounts, with dirt cheap commissions (via seat on the exchange). I'm guilty of some of the same problems you're going through, but one positive is, I NEVER hold a losing position...EVER!
Maybe try taking baby steps by scalping but only in direction of trend? Btw, do you have a positive risk/reward on your scalps? On average, are your winners bigger than your losing trades? If so, by how much?
Hi Emini Player,
yes, scalping is worth the work and the stress on huge contracts. Right now, I'm simply practising on 1 contract. Looks like I have a long way to go :-). When I can go back to my previous routine of doing 20 to 30 RT in under an hour, and am starting to trade more contracts, will definitely speak to my broker about a better deal. Right now, I just need to get back into my scalping mode.
Oh yes, I certainly have a positive risk to reward ratio. My risk is always higher than my reward LOL! Seriously, I don't care about ratios. I watch the level that tells me I'm dead wrong should price get there, and that's my stop. I will get in at a level that's as near as possible. If I don't, I'll know that my risk is now higher. But I don't usually wait til price actually gets there. Still don't know if that's good or bad.
When I really scalp, I don't know the dollar amount of each win and loss until I unhide my P&L at the end of the day. I watch patterns and levels and when I see something forming and price moving, I get in. And I get out when it's no longer moving in my direction. I'm not really good with simple mathematics (I did calculus math and my elementary math sucks LOL!).
Do you work with a fix R, and a fixed stop?
Oh, Emini Player, I forgot to tell you this: that I'm impressed that you're able to just let a losing trade go. It's what a lot of people can't do.
Keep up the good work! :-)
I'm lucky to have access to some very good traders, and the #1 rule is a positive risk/reward ratio. I hate math as well; but this is simple stuff; just make sure your profit target is 2x your stop-loss. I use a fixed 6-8 tick stop-loss. I'll use tighter stops at times but my stop-loss never exceeds 2 points. If a setup requires more than a 2 point stop, I simply pass on the setup (or get stopped out at 6-8 ticks if I take it anyway). Scalping and counter-trend trading is the hard way to make money. Requires a ton of focus, discipline, concentration, etc. for not a huge reward. Check out my trade charts from today. Yes, I was able to scalp counter-trend and make 6.5 points in the ES; but talk about hard earned points! The professional trader simply went long at 758, exited partial at 766, re-loaded (added) on the pullback to 764, and exited at 774. With 2 trades he made more per contract than I did with 15+ trades. Trend trading proved to be more efficient, and is easier on the nerves.
I would recommend you start tracking your winning trades, and how they compare to your losing trades. You want to make sure that ratio is positive.
Btw, I briefly glanced over your post about your frustration with IB. I closed my account with them a couple of months ago and moved to Infinity Futures. Infinity's trading platform is SO much better than IB and with better margin rates and commissions too. Let me know if you're interested and I'll put you in touch with my broker who will definitely hook you up (disclaimer: I get nothing from anyone signing up with Infinity; my good experience with them and my frustrations with IB are the only reasons I mention them).
Hi, Jules. I'll keep it sort of brief -- I've been where you are at the moment, only much (SO MUCH!) worse. Earlier on in my development, I too grew frustrated with stops and decided to do without them. Unfortunately, it corresponded with Lehman week, if you catch my drift. I would never admit in writing how much it cost me. :-) When I looked at your post earlier today and saw that you were short ~750 and asleep, I thought "oh my". I feel for you, because I know letting a trade get away can be heartbreaking. Hang in there. Oh, and one other thing -- I love your writing. IMO, it's cool that you're so honest and articulate. I admire it.
so many good points that are worth repeating.
- willing to scratch whenever price didn't move in my direction immediately, or when it went against me by ticks!
- willing to take ticks for profits.
-depended on the market to give me whatever it wanted to give within that single 3 or 5 min candle
- look at chart patterns and only trade 2 to 3 of them
- don't care about pivot points.
- don't care about previous days' highs and lows
- focus on the "NOW"
- no prediction
- what price is doing NOW
- don't care about ratios (yes, what matter is you make a good trade or bad trade)
-don't know the dollar amount of each win and loss (very good otherwise you will trade your p/l and that’s bad)
- get out when it's no longer moving in my direction.
Sorry abt the blowout situation you're in. i just hate having to baby sit a positon gone bad. Most of the time, you're at the mercy of the market. But don't be rash. The last thing you need is to cover at the top. If you're averaging, remember you only got one bullet left, so pick your spot carefully. Btw, this is still a bear market unless 804 is reached and not turned back immediately.
Sage, when I went to bed last night, I was thinking, "I am Sage, and I will sleep well and wake up to "ka-ching"!" LOL!!!
I'm not averaging. I know it makes sense to do it under special circumstances, but I making an effort not to get there. It's a difficult habit to kick once hooked :-)
I'm totally prepared to get out at a sizable loss. Having to pay the market has a humbling effect on me and tames me at least for a while :-)
I'm totally not long-term bullish. I suspect I'm an eternal bear. Which is one of the reasons I'm trading futures. If I'm trading stocks, I'll just keep shorting. And then I'll be at the mercy of my broker - I can't move until they will loan me some stocks! LOL!
Haha.. i'm glad you slept well there and yes, this works sometimes but often times,it's just lowsy trading habit.
Not as lousy as nicotine addiction, Sage LOL!
I'm appalled that I actually slept like a baby! Something's seriously wrong with me. I need to get my brain checked...
Hi Jules,
Trading is really simple as you point out, but not necessarily easy. The hard part is making money.
If you enjoy it, stick with it until you find something that consistently works for you.
http://www.eminiwizard.com/2008/crm/
http://www.eminiwizard.com/blogger/nucleus-accumbens/
Scared money never wins.If you are job hunting, get your house in order and make sure you have enough capital for this venture.
Good luck, absolutely love your personality, it comes through in your writing.
E.
Hahaha, agreed, E, that making money is the hardest part in trading!
Thank you for the link :-)
Yes, I'm increasingly trading with scared money. Didn't feel that way when I first started out. Honeymoon's over apparently :-)
My personality? My sister loves me hideous. I had no idea she's not the only one LOL!
Thanks for dropping by :-)
Post a Comment