ES Hourly
What I see:- ES coming down from ceiling of broadening channel, possibly going for 740.25 support (also Fib retracement 23.6), or to 729 (also Fib retracement 50).
- A bull would want a 50% retracement - coz a drop to that point is the pattern we've come to know as a partial decline, a fairly reliable indication that price will break above the channel.
ES Hourly with Fib Retracement & Extension
I see a very bullish, rosy picture:- A cup with handle formation in the making (the cup is that whole grayish area there)
- If we have a partial decline ie. if ES pulls back to fib retracement 50% (seed highlighted in green on above chart) at 729, and ES breaks above 750, we should have our complete cup
- If we have a cup (comes with the handle of course - IF we get our partial decline), there's a possibility that ES will at least hit Fib Ext 423.6 (seed is highlighted in blue on the chart) or resistance at around 800 (won't happen today though).
- For the first time in a long time, the faster EMAs have gone above the 200EMA
- Where ES went up by way of the 1st leg of a measured move was exactly the point of a bullish crossover of the 20 and 50 EMAs
I'm not concerned about this being just a dead cat bounce, or a sucker's or bear market rally. It could be. But that's D's problem (he invests. OK, so I'm a little concerned ). All I'm interested in getting out of my charts are the best areas to place my entries and exits for intraday plays.
I'm not going to plan anything until 5am EST.
Will trade mainly the active hours from now on.
I've had enough of the non-active hours - drained me to the point that by the time market opens, my brain's half dead. Prices crawl around in a haphazard fashion, and almost always never break out (resulting in my fear of buying breakouts after having traded those hours for a while). Well, you can't expect breakouts without volume....
Tape is easy to read though - so if chart's not too ugly, I might still take a scalp here and there. But I'll rather use that 12 hours to read - books, blogs, anything.
6 comments:
"(I had convinced myself from staring at yesterday's charts (every day for 5 years) that the only way for me to trade was to try and wait patiently for "high probability and high risk vs. reward" setups - you see, it made so much sense to try and catch all of the big moves. Trade less, make more, right? Well, I have learned the expensive lesson that for me this is not right. Not even close. I am hyper and have an inner need to be right a lot, so high win-rate percentage scalping works great for me - this came as a real shock! How could I lie to myself for so darn long about this?)"
- part of a trader's bio
Does it sound familiar? :)
Cory, who's the trader?? I need to know. PLEEEASE. I've not met another hyper trader who desperately needs to be right A LOT. Honestly, whenever I find myself not feeling downright mortified and demoralized about a losing trade, I'll feel like I need to call for celebration! LOL!
sure, here is his bio part I & II.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2347260#post2347260
Thank you, Cory!! I read it - really strikes a chord! :-) Thank you so much!
floor traders are scalpers they trade the noise, loud noise in pit = big volume, no noise = sideway, chop. they watch pivot numbers to see which side get the most noise and go with that side. One of the room I am in the head trader is a pure scalper, he said he found he can't do anything else because it won't work for HIM, So if he feels the urge to do the 'either hit my stop or give me my target' trade he just adds 1 more contract and uses it purely for that purpose.
You trade in trading room? Wow! I would love to see a trading room and a trading floor. One day, I'll want to visit the CME. Michael, my trading coach, says he can actually arrange for that to happen, and I'm thrilled! :-)
I don't always have the urge to get my targets. I just feel that that could be the right way to trade on occasions that I doubt myself. I tend to turn a blind eye on what i did in the past that felt right and produced the kind of result that is not impressive but at least consistent. I guess it's my impatience with the small profit that has led me to seek out ways to make home-run kind of profits. But D pointed out something that makes sense still, and it's that what I'm doing now is actually "simulated" trading, except that there's really money on the line. Once I've perfected my skills, I'll increase my contracts, and that's how I can make a decent profit. I mean, we all know that scalpers don't play single contract. It doesn't make sense. They get in and out scratching bad trades before they turn really bad, and get out whenever there's profit. Size can be substantial as they don't hold their positions. They just need to practise to the point that they are right most of the time. When starting out, they make bad trades and blunders, but that's essentially what trading calls for. Initial mistakes and failurs. Coz success can't teach.
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