ES (TA) & Reply to Comment (On My Exit Strategy)

Just something I do now and then whenever I'm no longer clear about the prevailing trend: TA!!

Chart shows a Cup With Handle formation - a valid one, given that
1) ES went up 30 points prior to its formation,
2) Cup's relatively tall
3) Handle's found in the upper half of the cup

This is a cup that has clearly performed. Price hit a target that exceeded the measured rule used for a cup in a BULL market (in a bear market, the measured rule is to take HALF the height of the low of the cup to the right rim, then add it to the right rim).

I spotted several cups before this cup, and none hit the measured rule for an uptrend. This is the first one that did. I'm not sure if that means we're looking at the start of a bull market. I find it rather hard to believe. It doesn't gel with what I see on SPX monthly ( 3 strong bullish candle off price low, but a 2nd entry is usually required to reverse prcie back up given the very strong downward momentum before it).

So, this is my hypothesis (gotta have one, it's just me): granted that we could very well be looking at an intermediate uptrend ahead, market is due for correction. SPX doesn't have to go all the way back down to 666; we have support at 840 (best case scenario). I'm anticipating a Cup Pullback to around 930 (1st target for shorts). From there another cup or any other variations of "W" formation could take shape, but I'll expect all upward breakouts from such patterns to fail. I'll start looking out for inverted cups in fact, or any variations of "M"s.

Whenever I'm disciplined (rare, but I do get into that mode at least a few days in a month..), I will not take trades based on assumptions. When I say I anticipate something, it simply means I'll keep a lookout for a setups that suggest it's happening. I will need both setups and signals for me to want to take a trade.

Personally, I wish that the market will just continue to go up from this point on to look for 1000. I'm starting to NOT like to sell. In fact, I don't think I'll be selling even if the market were to go into a short-term downtrend. What's good about taking the daytrading/scalping route is that I can still BUY in a bull correction. Ha.

Daytrader 233:

You asked how I decide where to cover/exit my positions.

Briefly, I count the number of legs/push ups (since I BUY, predominantly) once price leaves the "W" base.

Whenever ES is at the low of a "W" formation just minutes prior to US market open, I'll look out for the first bear attempt to push price back down the base - it's easy to see: the first candle that has a low that's sligthly below the low of the previous candle (keeping in mind that market's in an upward swing).

Then I'll see what the next candle is. If it's a bullish candle that has a decent size body and NOT too big a range, I'll enter on close of this candle. If the first bear attempt turned out to be a hammer, I won't wait for the next candle to form. That hammer will become my signal candle.

Once I'm in trade, I keep an eye on both the tape and the candle. If the candle's exceptionally long, and if it's pierced a trendline or a resistance, I'll exit before the close of the candle. Otherwise, I'll hold for another candle. There's no particular reason - just that I've seen so many moves comprising 3 with-trend candles. I usually like to get out when many are still wanting in (easy to cover), so I'll usually pass the 3rd candle. On days where candles are relatively small (on both choppy and ranging days), I will exit on the 2nd push up.

Having said all that, I usually go with the tape. Some days I choose to ignore the tape and that's the only time I'll exit as planned. Tape helps to give me a high winning percentage with small wins each time and if I have a daily target to hit, it means multiple entries. I ditch the tape (for exits) when I'm not in the mood to get in and out a dozen times. I always use the tape to confirm my entries.

Hope I answered your question?

ES - Fulcrum

ES Hourly

What I see when I put on a Bull's hat:
i) Price stopped by pivot at around 754, OR ii) by 752, leaving half of gap unfilled,
then plunges to 729 support, from where it takes off for 776.25 resistance, clears it, then go straight for 836 target

What I REALLY See:
1) Price making a dash for 776.25, creating a classic bull trap, then comes back down towards 737 and stalls there, creating a bear trap; bears run, price shoots up to 796.5, then free-falls to floor of dotted white uptrendline

2) Price falling to 729, finding support temporarily, goes back up, only to be stopped by 745, forms a classic partial rise, then plunges down to 720 or possibly 707 (either way, finding support at floor of dotted white uptrendline)

Ok, what I see is what I WANT TO SEE (I mean, don't we always see what we want to see?....ok, enough mf for now...) . A 3-rising valley type of bottom is simply more convincing, at least visually. Something that stands on one leg looks precariously like it's going to topple, sooner or later.

Again, will draft my game plan for today only at 5am EST.

ES - Cup W Handle & Fibonacci

ES Hourly

What I see:

- ES coming down from ceiling of broadening channel, possibly going for 740.25 support (also Fib retracement 23.6), or to 729 (also Fib retracement 50).

- A bull would want a 50% retracement - coz a drop to that point is the pattern we've come to know as a partial decline, a fairly reliable indication that price will break above the channel.

ES Hourly with Fib Retracement & Extension

I see a very bullish, rosy picture:

- A cup with handle formation in the making (the cup is that whole grayish area there)

- If we have a partial decline ie. if ES pulls back to fib retracement 50% (seed highlighted in green on above chart) at 729, and ES breaks above 750, we should have our complete cup

- If we have a cup (comes with the handle of course - IF we get our partial decline), there's a possibility that ES will at least hit Fib Ext 423.6 (seed is highlighted in blue on the chart) or resistance at around 800 (won't happen today though).

- For the first time in a long time, the faster EMAs have gone above the 200EMA

- Where ES went up by way of the 1st leg of a measured move was exactly the point of a bullish crossover of the 20 and 50 EMAs

I'm not concerned about this being just a dead cat bounce, or a sucker's or bear market rally. It could be. But that's D's problem (he invests. OK, so I'm a little concerned ). All I'm interested in getting out of my charts are the best areas to place my entries and exits for intraday plays.

I'm not going to plan anything until 5am EST.

Will trade mainly the active hours from now on.

I've had enough of the non-active hours - drained me to the point that by the time market opens, my brain's half dead. Prices crawl around in a haphazard fashion, and almost always never break out (resulting in my fear of buying breakouts after having traded those hours for a while). Well, you can't expect breakouts without volume....

Tape is easy to read though - so if chart's not too ugly, I might still take a scalp here and there. But I'll rather use that 12 hours to read - books, blogs, anything.

ES 2/24

ES Hourly

If ES doesn't get above 750 as well as yesterday's low at 752.5, it's likely to form the 2nd leg of a Measured Move Down. Floor of the broadening formation (blue downtrend line) will be where I'll look out for support until I see a horizontal support. From where it is now, ES is likely to go up to test 748 first, then 752.5 & 757.5. I'm not going to even make a wild guess as to where it'll go after that.

Fed giving their semiannual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee today (tues) and the House Financial Services Committee tmrw (Wed).

GAME PLAN

Setup that I've been using earlier today:

ES 3min & 10min

Scalp within the zone of 740 - 750.

Be prepared for ES to trade to the floor of the Broadening Formation on ES Hourly (mentioned above).

(On ES 10min) Sell short only from KC's centreline - price should be forming a lower peak than the first one that enters the KC. Do NOT sell on the first close of price below KC's upper band. Watch stochastics - look for downward hook at 50 after it's come up from oversold; look for lower peak to form at overbought and at 50.

RULES

Scalping:
Get out of any open positions once the tape shows that the reason for getting in is no longer there

Daytrades:
Get out ONCE price closes above or below support & resistance

SPX Charts Analysis & A CONTEST

(If you are curious about the contest bit, scroll right to the end of this posting)

SPX Weekly (1994 -2009)

SPX Weekly (Aug 2008 - Feb 13 2009)

I see:
- Price breaking and closing above trendline resistance the week before
- Price subsequently throwing back to yellow downtrend line and closing below it
- An Outside Bar
- A failed breakout above 1st triangle
- A failed pull back after price broke below 2nd triangle
- A partial rise on the 3rd triangle

SPX Daily

I see:
- A hammer (thurs) which didn't manage to drive price up to close above it the following day
- An evening star pattern that couldn't push price to close below trendline support

SPX Hourly

I see:
- Price closed below 827 support, and looking like it's going for trendline support
- A horizontal EMA200

SPX 30min

I see:
- A descending broadening formation, and price going for base of formation
- Trendline as well as 818 support right about where price should touch base of formation should it get there

SPX 10min

I see:
- An unconfirmed double top
- Trendline supports

Where I am going with this, I have no idea.

I'm stumped by what I'm seeing.

If you would like to share your view on where we MIGHT BE heading - just for the fun of it - please do so via the comment section. You stand a chance to receive a book from me (as far as I know, it's not hit the shelf yet).

I'm serious. Really.

The 300-page book's authored by a hedge fund manager (with 20 over years of experience) and talks about practices and strategies adopted by the industry that maybe some of you will be very curious to know.

I've gone over half the book in under an hour. So, it's an easy read. Author's rather child-like, and tells an interesting story. That's all I can say for now. Maybe the gem is in the remaining 150 pages...

I'm allowed to give out 2 copies of the ebook. So if you're not among those who have already been approached by the publisher, and are interested to take a look at the book, please email me. If no one responds to my dumb contest, I'd be happy to let you have the book. It will be great if you can give me your comments - if any - after you've finished the book. And you are most definitely welcome to post your review in my comment section if you choose to do so.

ES 2/12

Am having problem uploading images.

Briefly, I'm seeing an Inverted Cup With Handle in the making. The pattern will only confirm if ES breaks below 819.5, which is the right cup rim.

ES (the "handle" part of the ICWH) has been trading along the base of an Ascending Broadening Wedge. I really can't imagine that ES is going to break out of the ICWH. In other words, I think that the breaking below of the ABW is a false breakout, and ES is likely to climb back up into the ABW.

Simply put, I'm still holding on to the view that ES will go back up to at least 885, if not 1000. In addition to this pattern that I've mentioned, I'm also seeing the development of a 3 Rising Valley sort of pattern.

I'm still a bull for now. A really moronic one perhaps.

Haven't the time to come up with a game plan for today's session.

ES Trade 2/10 (After Action Review) & ES 2/11 (Trading Idea)

I'm not publishing the details of my one and only trade from yesterday (after US market open), coz I don't want anyone who is really new to trading to see a very bad example.

Briefly, I used my entire gains from last week (USD 1250) to find out a few things I HAVE TO know FOR SURE so that I can stop whinning about not being able to trade my plan. It's the way I learn, and the way I stretch myself. I don't like my fear, coz it hinders my trading. Forcing myself to stare at what I fear the most about trading in the eye is the only way I could rid myself of it. I survived it, and am a little taken aback that my heart beat NORMALLY in that 3 agonizing hours. I slept well too after getting stopped out. I'm a stronger person today, and I'm still liking the way I plan my trades.

As a matter of fact, I have been executing my plans. That's why I really want to kick myself for having complained that I haven't traded my plan.

What I've not been doing is to take the profit that I ESTIMATED I could reasonably expect from that particular trade. After yesterday, I finally appreciated my very initial reason for not wanting to wait for that projected profit to fall on my lap.

It takes a lot of confidence to just put in your target and let it get hit. It's a luxury that belongs to only those that have spent years and years learning from the market, observing the probabilities of scenarios actually playing out as projected. One day I will get there, and although I would kill to make that day come this week, I know for a fact that that day is sometime in the hopefully not so distant future.

In the mean time, I will stick to my plan, but adopt a flexible approach to profit taking. I need consistent, or more aptly - routined - profits to build my confidence and accumulate my capital to the point where I can afford more aggressive play, and grow from there.

Moving on, below's my idea for today's trading.

ES Hourly

This is still my primary view / hypothesis of how the market is playing out. What's slightly different now is that the head has expanded and the right shoulder has shifted to...er...more right.

In my chart above, the "head" is highlighted in grey.

That's a longer term play (ie. the Inverted Head & Shoulder), and one that requires ES to trade above 876.

For now, I'm seeing a Head & Shoulder in the making (both left shoulder and head are highlighted in blue). The right shoulder does not necessarily have to reach 850 (where the left shoulder is), it's possible that ES could turn back down to support after hitting 842 (fib retracement 50%) or 837 (fib retracement 38.2%).

There's support at the red uptrend line, which should affect the performance of the Measured Move Down (not if ES pulls back to fib 50% though - in which case, the 2nd leg of the MMD should reach the trendline at around the time that it's completed - around 45 points). I'm inclined to think that ES would resume its downward move after hitting 837. If that happens, I'll take either 815 or the trendline support as target.

I'll be using the 5 or 10min chart for basis of my trading plan for today.

ES 2/10

ES Hourly

Still trading this idea.

But I'm having reservation now about ES' breaking above the broadening channel to hit 900 - 1000. It looks like it could form a triple top - I'm thinking it might test 873, and quite possibly 885, and plunge right down to 836.

Another scenario I'm imagining is a bearish reversal at 865.

ES 10min

I'm hypothesizing that ES is going to trade up to the ceiling of the Descending Broadening formation, and if it manages to break above the formation, then it should be aiming for 873 - 885.

Trading Plan A
Longs
Entry Points: 853, 860, 867
Exit Points: 862, 872, 882

Trading Plan B
Shorts
Entry Point: 862, 849
Exit Point: 835

I'll most likely be scalping today. Working, and will be back home only slightly before US market open.

ES 2/9 - About Bottoms, Busted Bearish Patterns & Such

ES Hourly

My thoughts on what I'm seeing:

Ascending Broadening (AB) Formation (pink trendlines) that's supposed to encase prices was busted on Thursday when ES punched through its base but quickly made a V-shape reversal back into the formation.

The busting of the pattern was hardly surprising, given that an AB formation that develops at significant lows usually breaks upwards.

Now that the pattern is busted, I'll be expecting to see an even better upward breakout performance. The psychology behind this has everything to do with bears being caught by surprise - their covering sent price soaring, and that triggered new buying and fueled the much awaited rally.

When you combine the Descending Broadening Wedge (blue trendlines) and AB formation , you should easily see a Wash-and-Rinse (aka Double Bottom - albeit a lopsided one) pattern. Using the measure rule for double bottom - I have come up with something like 893.5 as the ultimate exit target for this pattern.

I'm using the Double Bottom pattern to project my exit points because I can't use the AB formation to do any computation until ES actually breaks out of it. In any case, it doesn't really matter which figure I take, ES is ultimately going to be stopped by resistance at 900 (which is very close to the targeted exit for the double bottom pattern).

900 is target 3 on my chart. Targets 1 and 2 are all resistances above where ES closed on Friday.

It's apparent that I'm taking a bullish stance. How could I not when I'm seeing double bottoms, Inverted Head and Shoulders, and a recently busted bearish pattern on a chart that's actually making higher lows ( which are not spectacularly higher - and I take that as a good sign, since a healthy rally is usually anything but spectacular)?

I'm not going into the realm of market fundamentals - anyone who's been paying attention to macroeconomics and keeping close tabs on what the Obama administration has been doing about the mess they've inherited from their predecessor should know that we're not in a very good situation. When things get this bad, and you give investors a little something to look forward to, they are going to get EXCITED for a few days, until you start giving them reasons to believe that you just might not be able to deliver your promise within the stipulated timeframe.

I'm envisioning that the HOPE bit would drive ES to the 900 - 1000 level.

The REALIZATION part we should see when ES tumbles back down after hitting that major resistance (900-1000).

Rationalizing the market is such a breeze.

No wonder everyone's doing it.

For next week, I'm hypothesizing that either of these scenarios will unfold:

1) ES moves up to hit my target 1 at 876 (blue horizontal dotted line), then throws back to 856 (red horizontal line), which is a previous support turned resistance.

856 happens to be a fib retracement of 50% if we take 876 as the high ,and 836.5 (yellow dotted line) as the low.

If ES were to turn back up from there (ie. 856 - the red horizontal line), and hit the ceiling of the AB formation, that would qualify as a partial decline. Bullish pattern.

2) This is the scenario that I'm NOT convinced will develop: instead of pulling back to red horizontal line, ES lands on support at 850, or at base of AB formation, then bounce back up, only to reverse back down after being stopped by red horizontal line, or ceiling of AB formation, or 876 (my target 1).

If this really were to happen, I'll be looking out for a head and shoulder to form , especially if the base of the AB formation actually gives the HS a nice neckline. Bearish.

My target 1 for this breakout below the AB formation would be 816.

As much as I love playing with scenarios, I can't use them to make minute to minute - or second to second - decisions for scalps and daytrades. Not for the time being (I need a stronger heart and bigger account...). But they have been very useful in helping me to spot trends and patterns that are developing on lower timeframes, on which I usually formulate my plans for entries and exits.

NYSE data for the week of Feb 2:

Feb 2 & 3

Feb 4 & 5

Feb 6


Market doesn't look horribly weak to me.

ES Trades 2/6 - Busted Diamond Top? Double Top In The Making?

ES 5min

Busted Diamond Top.

Or is it really?

In any case, I'll be watching 848.

Plan A (For Busted Diamond Top) - LONG

If ES breaks above that, it's almost (to ask for certainty in the market is absurd) a confirmed busted pattern, and I'll be aiming for exits at 855, 865, 870, 874.

Plan B (For Double-Top Pattern) - SHORT

Should ES be stopped by 848, I'll be looking to trade a double top. Exit targets will be at 836, 830, 825, 820.

Plan C (For Diamond Top Pattern) - SHORT

If Diamond Top pattern is NOT busted (meaning that if after the current pullback to anywhere beneath 848, price were to turn back down towards 840), I'll look to sell at around 840.

A less aggressive play would be entry below 836 - the point which confirms the diamond top pattern - or after price drops below the upward sloping channel (the 2 white trendlines) and fails to pull back to the channel again.

My exit target will be support at 829.5 (measure rule of Diamond Top in this case is: 840 [point of breakout of diamond top] - 12 [the height of the valley to peak of the diamond shape] = 828)

Pre-market Entries
Bought the pullback after ES broke out of diamond top (ES is currently trading along the upward sloping channel):

ES 2/6

ES Hourly

STILL playing the main theme of a breakout on the Descending Broadening Wedge (the blue trendlines). ES pulled back to support at 815 in the early part of yesterday's session and is currently looking like it could get up to 850 and 876 (Target 1 and 2 on chart above) - that is, if it's able to stay above the 835-840 zone.

Secondary theme: Ascending Broadening Wedge (the white trendlines)
I'm still of the view that ES could be aiming for ceiling of the ABW at least. A breakout above would be a very bullish development.

Plan A (Long)

• Long at: 840, 850, or at no specific points within the region spanning 840 and 850
  
• Exit targets: 850, 875
  

Plan B (In the event that ES is stopped by 850)

• Short at: 850, 840, 835
• Exit targets: 840, 835, 830, wherever and whenever ES touches base of ABW, and 815

ES Trades 2/5 - Just Warming Up....I'm A Contrarian Again

This is what happens when you have a fairly bullish view of the market, and it keeps trading below pivot and below the previous day's close:
I held the first scalp (which again, turned into a day trade, and again taught me so much more about the behavior of the instrument, the market, and my own psychology, weakness and strength - somehow, without money on the line, I just don't absorb and process information as fast....it's a curse!), and scratched the 2nd (ok, this time I learned).

I'm still bullish. There're a lot offers, and market's not plunging. Must mean something...

Anyway, I'm seeing a Eve, Eve & Adam Triple Bottom (see chart below). That must mean something too.

I'm not selling until price's stopped by 831 at least. I'm going to have to pin this up where I can see throughout today's session: not selling, not selling, not selling!!!

ES 5min

ES 2/5

SPX Daily

What I'm seeing is that we are trading in a symmetrical triangle of sort, and SPX can either break above or below it. I'm inclined to think that the 2 dojis (in red elliptical) should provide fairly good support, given the reinforcement from the demand zone beneath it (800 - 815). Even if price were to cut through it like a knife through butter, there's still support at the low of 741 on Nov 21. Just the way I'm reading my chart. Whether we get a bounce from there still depends on the way trends unfold daily.

ES Hourly

Still playing the main theme of a breakout on the Descending Broadening Wedge (the blue trendlines). I tend to see yesterday's downward move as being merely a pull back...

Secondary theme: Ascending Broadening Wedge (the white trendlines)
My thinking is that ES will trade up towards the ceiling of the ABW, or to 835 (which is also fib retracement level of 50%) and 840. If ES were to turn down towards the bottom of the ABW from 835 - 840, I'll tread carefully, coz that would be a sign that what's unfolding could very well be a partial rise. Bearish.

ES is trading in the range of 827 to 828 now, overhead resistance is yesterday's close at 829.5. Support's at 825 (I HOPE - coz I'm in a long position again! $&*#&$*)

Plan A (Long)

• Long at: 825, 830, 835
  
• Exit targets: 830, 835, 840
  

Plan B (Short)

• Short at: 850, 840, 835
• Exit targetss: 840, wherever and whenever ES touches base of ABW, and 815

ES 2/4

ES Hourly

Pattern I'm looking to trade: Descending Broadening Wedge (DBW)

ES broke out of DBW yesterday, and is now doing a pull back - hopefully not to the floor of the channel YET, coz I'm in trade now (LONG!)!

Was looking to buy after a pull back, but MY FINGERS (Read: NOT ME!) couldn't wait and got me into a trade at 834. *$*#&*@!

This was what was supposed to happen:

Plan A (Long)

• Long at: 830, 815, and whenever ES touches the floor of the blue channel
  
• Stop Loss: Yet to figure out ES...play by ear for now
  
• Exit targets: 840, 850, 865
  

Plan B (Short)

Will look to short only in the event that ES plunges back into the DBW.

TF 2/2

TF Hourly

Pattern I'm looking to trade: Head & Shoulder / Inverted Cup With Handle (whatever...the cup's not even formed yet, let alone the handle - once TF drops below 425, that's a good pattern to trade)

As TF approaches the area (425 - 440) where people have been willing to buy (look at the number of bullish reversals that happened there), I'm actually rather wary of selling.

But since market has generally been weak (see screenshots of NYSE data below), I'm going to take my chance.

If pattern performs, TF could go all the way to 430.

But I'm sticking to a point that 's slightly below Fib extention level 161.8, and aiming for 433 instead.

I expect TF to pull back to 450, or even to 455 first though.

Should TF punch through 440 and hit 432 without any decent retracement, I'll be looking to buy.

I really don't think I'd want to do anything at 440. If I really have to sell there, my stop would be 7 points away. So, unless the market's screaming for me to get in, I'm just going to sit back and watch, and probably take scalps on 1min.

That said, should TF fall below 440 before US market opens, I'll be happy to sell anywhere below that and place a stop at 440.

Plan A

• Short at: 453, 450, 445
• Stop Loss: 455, 452, 447
  
• Exit target 1: 440
  
• Exit target 2: 433

Plan B

• Long at: 433
• Stop Loss: 430
  
• Exit target 1: 440
• Exit Target 2: 450

Plan C (on failed HS)
No plan C, if TF doesn't punch through 440, it might just chop sideways for a while. When market gets choppy, experience tells me that I should just SIT & WATCH, or go play with my cat.

NYSE Data

Jan 26 & 27

Jan 28 & 29

Jan 30

TF 1/30

Dow & SPX Daily

Round bottom (Jan 15 - 28) on both...that's going to be a straight line down to at least the Nov08 low. Simply put, market's looking bad, and I'm bearish again.

TF 30min

Pattern I'm looking to trade: Head & Shoulder / Measured Move Down
It looks like we're going into correctional wave 4, and the session today could very likely see the completion of wave 5 - which is visually the 2nd leg of a measured move down.

And if that happens, it will complete what looks very much like a Head and shoulder pattern on the 30min chart.

Plan A

• Short at: 457 - 459
• Exit target 1: 450
• Exit target 2: 440

Plan B
(This is is for the scenario where TF doesn't even go back up to test resistance at 459)

• Short at: 450 - 451
  
• Exit target: 440

I'm suspecting that we'll be looking at a rather narrow range today, so I really don't have very high hopes that TF will hit 440. The right shoulder needs time to form afterall - if that's really a shoulder that's in the making.

I would like to see bearish patterns developing around the 450 area on the lower timeframe before considering any shorts below that level.

TF 1/29

TF Hourly

Pattern I'm looking to trade : Ascending Wedge (AW)
Since breakout of AW is usually on the downside, and given that TF has hit a strong resistance area, I'm inclined to believe that a downward breakout is more likely to happen than an upward breakout.

Volume has been trending downward in the current rally, which gives me more reason to believe that a downward breakout is probable

Plan A:
Entry:
On the hourly, it looks like TF could go up to test 475 again, forming what would be both a double top, and a partial rise pattern. If momentum is clearly downward, I will look to enter short after TF has formed another peak at around 475.

That would be the more aggressive play.

If I don't get a confirmation from any of the timeframes, I will look to short only after TF has closed below the uptrend line of the AW. If TF is going down right now, I'll look to short when it pulls back to the trendline.

I will be looking at the 1hr, 5min and 1min timeframe after market open

Exit:
Target 1: 459
Target 2: 450

Plan B:
Should TF close above 475, and momentum is clearly upward, I'll look to buy.
Exit targets will be 480 & 488

A possible entry for shorts at 469.5 on 30min chart:

TF 1/28

TF Hourly

Call me crazy, but I believe TF is not letting up yet and is likely to test the resistance zone of 475 - 480. I would really like to see 2 consecutive closes above the 462 resistance coz that will make buying easier.

Volume's clearly on a downtrend. Doesn't take a genius to figure out that party's going to be over for the bulls. The 3-day rally is clearly a flag or pennant, whatever - 461 is a fib retracement of 38.2% from TF's high of 518.6, and there's a good chance that TF is resuming its downtrend from here, or the next resistance zone (475-480, which is close to fib R 50% & 61.8% respectively), if not today, then tomorrow.

I'll be watching the 9:30am volume. Don't want to be caught in another fake breakout. Am expecting a miserable trading range. $#(%$&@ FOMC.

TF 1/27

TF Hourly

Still on the breakout-of-triangle play. If TF manages to break above that smaller triangle that's forming now, it should be on its way up to test 475. If it breaks on the downside instead, it's likely to find support on the uptrend line that is part of the larger triangle.

Call me bias - the last thing I'm seeing on this chart is TF plunging at this juncture.

TF 15min

Support at 445. If it doesn't hold, it's a sign that the 2 Inverted Scallops have run out of steam. In which case, for me to continue to want to buy, I'll have to see some really bullish patterns forming after that.

TF 1/26

DOW Daily

• Fri's session formed a hammer - if price moves up from there, it's not too difficult to imagine the development of a round bottom

SPX Daily

• Ditto for SPX daily
• And, Inverted Scallop is still intact - price found support at Fib retracement 61.8

TF 5min

• Partial Decline within Broadening Formation
• Inverted Scallop

TF Hourly

• Inverted Head & Shoulder
• No follow-through after breakout below triangle, twice

TF Daily

• Increased volume on previous 2 sessions - Thurs & Fri - barely pushed price below the low of Wed's session
• Fri's session is a hammer - not a very strong one, but a hammer nonetheless
  

There's not a single reason for me to believe that TF is going down to test its previous low. As far as today goes, I'm bullish. On the hourly, there's visibly a resistance at around 458. However, I'm inclined to think that TF could go up to 462-465.