Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Premarket Analysis (ER2) 9/9

There's nothing much to analyze anymore really.

In an UNNATURAL market like today's, the best that I can do is to PLAY BY EAR.

Given that DOW, S&P and RUT gained 2. 58%, 2.05% and 1.95% respectively and NDX lost a mere 0.3% in the last session, there ought to be some form of follow through today.

So, if ER2 doesn't break above 742.4, I'm shorting it all the way to 723.

ER2 30-min

2 comments:

Moyo Mamora said...

I dont believe the ER will break above that, these levels seem very unsustainable in the market...i am as bearish as you are in this market.

However there are a lots of resistance points along the way down, how do you deal with that?

Jules said...

Then I scalp :-)

Which I did (just posted result for today).

I usually don't hold a trade if I don't get a good entry before 830. For today, I wasn't sure if ER2 was going to test the 742 resistance. It traded below at 739 for while. So I had to wait for 739 to be tested, while keeping in mind that I still had 742 to worry about.

By then, ER2 was already too far away from 742, but not exactly in a confirmed downtrend. My risk to reward ratio was no longer appealing.

So I decided to scalp using 1 and 5 min timeframe.

I have always paid more attention to the resistance above when I go short. That's before market opens.

During market open hours, I use Fib for support and resistance.

The support I've drawn on my 30min charts are only important to me when I plan on taking a longer trade (with profit target of 5 - 7 points per contract).

When I scalp, my max target per entry is 1 point (of course when there's a strong move and I get more than 1 that's great). It's not difficult to get 1 point out of a 3 to 6 point for each of the waves (on 5 min chart, first and third waves offer the best plays as 5th is sometimes truncated...5th wave is usually completed at around 12 on a good trending day).

Hope I haven't lost you completely..

Will show a chart on your forum tmrw. A picture is worth a thousand words. Right now my neck's really killing me :-)