8 more days to trade the ER2 and then it's moving to ICE. Might as well start getting used to something else.
Like I said before, I'm stumped by the S & P chart. The only thing I can visualize on the monthly chart is a really tall mountain (I don't actually see a whole mountain...juz the left side...the other side one can only imagine...). On the daily chart, I see a downtrend. S & P looks like it's going to go down sooner or later, depending on how long the mighty power wants and is able to defer the inevitable.
On the ES 30min, what caught my eyes is the rejection of 1200. After a day that ES fell through a key support and was supposed to plunge, the Fed decided to make history, and all the major indices gapped up! This really spooks me coz they actually succeeded in getting the market to do exactly what they had hoped to see. When you seize 2 financial giants, you would think that that's gotta send the market plunging (or am I the only one who thinks that that's really the worst thing that could happen to a bank?...). But no, the market rallied, just as the government wanted. Ok, the confusion's intentional. It's good to exercise the brain.
So there you go, the market is always right and always does the opposite of what we are programmed to believe.
The indices and futures are all in the red now.
But i'm expecting a bullish trending day for ES. An upward move of one ABC corrective wave after another on the 5min chart.
But before that, as it is happening now, ES (refer to chart below) is likely to continue to drop. Probably to 1221 or even 1219, before bouncing off these supports. This could happen before or after 9:30am EST.
ES 30min
I'm NOT going to be bothered about any news and econ data (initial claims, trade balance, import and export prices - all to be released at 8:30am EST) anymore. If they happen to be REALLY bad, it will probably just send ES into a slightly deeper correction before going up again.
This is my take based on what I see on my chart and what I'm feeling about the market. On any particular day, you can never truly identify the reasons that send the market up or down. What one can know at best about the market is a very general feeling of grim or hope, and trade accordingly.
So why was I bearish yesterday and bullish today? Can market sentiment change overnight? Most certainly. Just look at what happened during the early part of Monday's trading session and what happened the day that followed.
But the fact is, I DON'T know what today's market sentiment is. I said that AT BEST we'll know - I'm just not at my best today.
I'm bullish because the chart tells me that the market didn't want to fall to 1200, and will find every reason now to avoid getting anywhere near there. If ES doesn't fall below 1219 anytime today, THAT's a reason to be bullish.
If ES drops below 1219, I'll be lost.
No, I won't be.
I'll just scalp the 1-min chart. Play by ear. Besides, SELLING is my favorite play still.
No comments:
Post a Comment