The above is the correct chart for Sep 10.
The one shown in my posting yesterday was the chart for Sep 9's trading.
So, I ended up making 3 scalps yesterday because I didn't want to take a pre-market entry at 718 (a 4-point risk, since I expected 722.35 to be tested SOMETIME in the day and I had no idea when that'll be).
718 became resistance for the day. ER2 did go up to just touch 722 before coming back down again, finding support at around 715 at market close.
On non-trending days, I keep a lookout for patterns like double and triple tops and bottoms (tops mostly of course, since I'm bearish).
On a day that starts choppy, I focus on the 1min-chart, only stealing glances at the 5min now and then.
The 5min chart on such days totally stumps me. At about 10:40am EST yesterday, I was finally able to see a triple top taking shape. In general though, the 5min charts are NOT friendly on a day like yesterday.
Best to use the 1min.
On trending days, I use fib for entry on the 5min chart. I'll wait for the first wave to be formed (on days that I don't get an entry by 8:30am EST). When it retraces (on a down day, the first bullish candle is a sign), I draw a fib retracement. ER2 usually retraces to fib 38.2% - so that is where I draw my resistance (again, I'm referring to a down day).
I do not take a trade at the resistance though. The resistance is simply the price that I think ER2 will retrace to. If the next candle move above that line, I'll expect it to retrace to 50% or even to 61.8%.
ER2 will usually consolidate within the area bound by where it stops going down and the resistance level - with 3 to 4 short body candles. I will go in when it moves out of this range (that is, if ER2 retraces by only 38.2%. If it retraces beyond that to 50% or 61.8%, it usually will go up in channels of ABC corrective waves, and form tops and bottoms and mountains and valleys, on its way down. That will be a topic for another day)
Sometimes it goes back up a little before falling by 3 to 5 points. It's a chance that I have to take.
Sometimes I wait for a bearish candle to close below that range first. Sometimes I don't. It depends on how nervous I feel the market is.
On a lazy down day, I take my time, coz on these days, ER2 could retrace to 50% and I don't want to take that ride UP.
On a nervous sell-off day, everything happens fast and I go in when I see the chance.
I exit when price starts plunging. My target is usually around 1 to 2 points. So far, I've found it hard to hold for 2 points. The ER2 is predictable only IN RETROSPECT. Ironic. But true.
I find it easier to just take profits off the table whenever I can in a market like this. This is simply not a time to go in for a killing, for me personally. I could end up getting killed.
I'm making fewer trades now than before, because I don't have to make up for losing trades (which usually were winning trades that turned into a loss while I waited for my 2-point gain).
And I don't run as quickly as I used to. Now I wait for market to do what it has to do before giving me the plunge that I'm waiting for.
The challenge is in knowing when waiting in confidence becomes HOPING.
Knowing what the general market sentiment is (for the day and the past few days) helps here. In a generally uncertain market like the one we're seeing since the beginning of this week, the likelihood that price will go south is higher than the converse. Which is why I still can't make myself BUY.
But I'm always anticipating a crazy up day, hence I watch up for signs that ER2 is turning up.
The line that I set for the day on my 30-min chart, the line that makes bulls run - that's my POINT OF NO RETURN.
If I decide to hold any trade, and ER2 hits that point, and stays up, I'll exit. It's not happened yet. That day will have to be a day that offers a very attractive potential reward for me to want to take that risk.
The one shown in my posting yesterday was the chart for Sep 9's trading.
So, I ended up making 3 scalps yesterday because I didn't want to take a pre-market entry at 718 (a 4-point risk, since I expected 722.35 to be tested SOMETIME in the day and I had no idea when that'll be).
718 became resistance for the day. ER2 did go up to just touch 722 before coming back down again, finding support at around 715 at market close.
On non-trending days, I keep a lookout for patterns like double and triple tops and bottoms (tops mostly of course, since I'm bearish).
On a day that starts choppy, I focus on the 1min-chart, only stealing glances at the 5min now and then.
The 5min chart on such days totally stumps me. At about 10:40am EST yesterday, I was finally able to see a triple top taking shape. In general though, the 5min charts are NOT friendly on a day like yesterday.
Best to use the 1min.
On trending days, I use fib for entry on the 5min chart. I'll wait for the first wave to be formed (on days that I don't get an entry by 8:30am EST). When it retraces (on a down day, the first bullish candle is a sign), I draw a fib retracement. ER2 usually retraces to fib 38.2% - so that is where I draw my resistance (again, I'm referring to a down day).
I do not take a trade at the resistance though. The resistance is simply the price that I think ER2 will retrace to. If the next candle move above that line, I'll expect it to retrace to 50% or even to 61.8%.
ER2 will usually consolidate within the area bound by where it stops going down and the resistance level - with 3 to 4 short body candles. I will go in when it moves out of this range (that is, if ER2 retraces by only 38.2%. If it retraces beyond that to 50% or 61.8%, it usually will go up in channels of ABC corrective waves, and form tops and bottoms and mountains and valleys, on its way down. That will be a topic for another day)
Sometimes it goes back up a little before falling by 3 to 5 points. It's a chance that I have to take.
Sometimes I wait for a bearish candle to close below that range first. Sometimes I don't. It depends on how nervous I feel the market is.
On a lazy down day, I take my time, coz on these days, ER2 could retrace to 50% and I don't want to take that ride UP.
On a nervous sell-off day, everything happens fast and I go in when I see the chance.
I exit when price starts plunging. My target is usually around 1 to 2 points. So far, I've found it hard to hold for 2 points. The ER2 is predictable only IN RETROSPECT. Ironic. But true.
I find it easier to just take profits off the table whenever I can in a market like this. This is simply not a time to go in for a killing, for me personally. I could end up getting killed.
I'm making fewer trades now than before, because I don't have to make up for losing trades (which usually were winning trades that turned into a loss while I waited for my 2-point gain).
And I don't run as quickly as I used to. Now I wait for market to do what it has to do before giving me the plunge that I'm waiting for.
The challenge is in knowing when waiting in confidence becomes HOPING.
Knowing what the general market sentiment is (for the day and the past few days) helps here. In a generally uncertain market like the one we're seeing since the beginning of this week, the likelihood that price will go south is higher than the converse. Which is why I still can't make myself BUY.
But I'm always anticipating a crazy up day, hence I watch up for signs that ER2 is turning up.
The line that I set for the day on my 30-min chart, the line that makes bulls run - that's my POINT OF NO RETURN.
If I decide to hold any trade, and ER2 hits that point, and stays up, I'll exit. It's not happened yet. That day will have to be a day that offers a very attractive potential reward for me to want to take that risk.
No comments:
Post a Comment