Saturday, March 14, 2009

Just Gotta Love Facebook




Personal ALL TIME favorite:

ES Trades 3/13

Choppy day. Not totally unexpected. Setups kept failing, and I kept having to sit on my hands. Probably a good thing though.

Stopped out once, and that was definitely the best thing that happened today. Allowed me to get back in the game instead of having to sit for hours to nurse a single very sick trade. Totally been there - too many times - and never want to go there again.

With a safety net in place, I should have taken profit instead of getting stopped out. All the trades were almost immediately profitable - entering on MSL & MSH, inside bars worked well. Missed 2 trades that broke out upwards - I hesitated even though the trigger was an inside bar for both, coz as always, I simply couldn't BUY.

Was convinced by the TICK (which has spent most of its time in the positive region ), eventually, that RESISTANCE IS FUTILE. It's just not a day to sell.

Lost at leaset 5 points coz I didn't take profit the way that I've gotten very good at doing. I let a trade get stopped out, and scratched another instead. All because I was still wanting to give taking profit at target a shot.

I'm convinced now that I have a certain style of trading that I can't change. It's not in my blood to let anything go auto-pilot. A stop only serves to save me from serious damages. The only way that I can trade comfortably is to watch my chart, THE TAPE, and the TICK ,and bail at the first sign of trouble. Scalping is the only mode that I can trade without going crazy.

Will stick to trading the few setups I'm familiar with (yes, I'm scalping high probability setups. What a waste).

Focus is back on achieving consistent results, and if by Sept I don't get another nasty incident, will start adding contracts.

Friday, March 13, 2009

ES - Fibonacci, Keltner Channel & 3 Bullish Reversal Patterns

ES 3min from Mar 12
This was from yesterday's session, sequel to the 3 rising valleys .

The pattern indeed developed into a cup with handle.

My habit has been to look for channels and broadening wedges to trade. In this case, the first thing I saw was the Ascending Broadening Wedge. By the time that a handle was formed, I was waiting for price to come down to touch the floor of the wedge for the 3rd time. Broadening wedge at day/year's low or at midway between high and low usually sees price hitting the ceiling of the wedge and breaking out after bouncing from its floor for the 3rd time.

Trigger candle will be the 3rd candle of the MSL. The only thing about the candlestick pattern (it's NOT an engulfing pattern aka outside bar) that suggests a bullish reversal is perhaps that the bullish candle is a marubozu. Get in 1 tick above the high of this candle, and trade all the way up to the ceiling of the channel. If you take a seed (highlighted in blue - refer to chart above) from the non active trading hours, you can usually expect a 261.8 to 423.6% run with this pattern (as seen on chart).

I usually will trade the pattern on the short side. I will go for the throw backs. Especially the 2nd one, after ES has formed a swing low, and then a double top, accompanied by a spinning top with long upper shadow. My kind of pattern.

I've briefly mentioned Keltner Channel before (re how I used it with the NYSE TICK when trading the TF). The chart above shows how it can be used with Fib ext. Note that the fib ext is for an upward move. Once fib 132.8 or 161.8 target has been hit, and price has traded out of channel, it's a sign of an exhaustion of the upward move. A short entry can be considered but only from the upper band of the channel. I usually will wait for price to move back into the channel (ie. usually the lower peak). Avoid shorting before price has hit at least 138.2 target, or before price has first gone out of the channel, coz it will make another attempt to do so, and that's usually when you're SELLING (been there).

Bollinger Band and Regression Bands should work the same way. I don't use BB coz it makes my chart look really ugly. The bulges and throttling and all. Just not pretty. If I'm staring at something for the most part of my waking hours, it cannot be UGLY!

That's why it's ok if D is.

MUAHAHAHAHA!!!!!


ES - Cup W Handle & Fibonacci

ES Hourly
What I see:

- ES coming down from ceiling of broadening channel, possibly going for 740.25 support (also Fib retracement 23.6), or to 729 (also Fib retracement 50).

- A bull would want a 50% retracement - coz a drop to that point is the pattern we've come to know as a partial decline, a fairly reliable indication that price will break above the channel.

ES Hourly with Fib Retracement & Extension
I see a very bullish, rosy picture:

- A cup with handle formation in the making (the cup is that whole grayish area there)

- If we have a partial decline ie. if ES pulls back to fib retracement 50% (seed highlighted in green on above chart) at 729, and ES breaks above 750, we should have our complete cup

- If we have a cup (comes with the handle of course - IF we get our partial decline), there's a possibility that ES will at least hit Fib Ext 423.6 (seed is highlighted in blue on the chart) or resistance at around 800 (won't happen today though).

- For the first time in a long time, the faster EMAs have gone above the 200EMA

- Where ES went up by way of the 1st leg of a measured move was exactly the point of a bullish crossover of the 20 and 50 EMAs

I'm not concerned about this being just a dead cat bounce, or a sucker's or bear market rally. It could be. But that's D's problem (he invests. OK, so I'm a little concerned ). All I'm interested in getting out of my charts are the best areas to place my entries and exits for intraday plays.

I'm not going to plan anything until 5am EST.

Will trade mainly the active hours from now on.

I've had enough of the non-active hours - drained me to the point that by the time market opens, my brain's half dead. Prices crawl around in a haphazard fashion, and almost always never break out (resulting in my fear of buying breakouts after having traded those hours for a while). Well, you can't expect breakouts without volume....

Tape is easy to read though - so if chart's not too ugly, I might still take a scalp here and there. But I'll rather use that 12 hours to read - books, blogs, anything.

ES Trade 3/12


Sat on my hands for more than 15 hours (what can I say, I have problem trading bullish patterns), and finally decided to go for a break out play. Was fooled into covering too early - by a dark cloud cover! I should have known better. Anyway, I gave it a shot.

No more breakout plays for me.

Told D last night that I was going to go back to trade the active trading hours. Looks like I have to tell him again. Coz he's waiting up for me, and I have to turn in now....

Thursday, March 12, 2009

ES 3/12 - 3 Rising Valleys

ES 3min
A pattern I've seen often enough...Didn't take the trade coz it's not my practice to buy an upward breakout. Maybe one day I will. I most definitely should!

A rather reliable reversal pattern to play. Look for it around day's low and near major support (712 in this case). High probability trade as the expectation is for price to break on the downside of the triangle (ie. betting on bears running).

First exit target's the start of the pattern (715.75). If it develops into a cup with handle, 2nd target could easily be at day's high (fib ext 261.8 -"seed" is that drop before the 3rd valley). Enter 0.25 point above the high of the trigger candle for the MSL at 3rd valley. That's the way I would play it. My exit target would have been at 714 (which is actually the confirmation for the pattern) , or maybe even at 713.5 (I don't buy breakouts). It would have been a nice scalp - too bad that entry is less than 3 points from my exit target.

Definitely going into my depository.

ES 3/12

ES Hourly
Nothing much to say except that I can't see ES going up without revisiting support at 665 - 680.

As far as trading goes, will stick to scalping if there's no quality setup to trade. Using stop loss.

Am now spending a fair bit of time looking for the setups that I've been trading - those that had worked for me, and those that had gone against me in lightning speed (am particularly interested in the latter). All will go into my chart setup warehouse...

ES Trade 3/11 - Scalping Setup

Above's my scalp. Went in at higher MSL, trigger candle is an inside bar, entered 0.25 point above trigger, stop loss at 0.25 below.

This is one of the patterns that I'll BUY. I don't care if price will break out of range, coz I always get out before price hits resistance. It's a scalp after all.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

ES Trades 3/11 & A Pretty Chart Pattern

Ugly day and ugly charts for most part of the day. Ugly hourly, ugly 10min, and ugly 3min - well, except for the setup below.

Took a scalp. Not a perfect setup, but one that I'm familiar with - price going for resistance. Used a stop. Stress-free scalp. But I'm sick of looking at trendless charts with price going everywhere and nowhere. Calling it a day.

Profit: USD 100
Double Bottom & Fib Extention 161.8
Above is the only good setup I've seen on the 3min for today. It appears often enough - you wait for the low of the day, and keep a lookout for "W" shape. Best if the 2nd bottom is a double-bottom MSL. Take the left of the "W" as the seed, and use fib ext to get the exit points. 161.8 is usually attainable. 261.8 is NOT uncommon, but you'll usually have to sit through a retracement.

I missed the entry when I was checking out the higher timeframe for confirmation. Part of me just wasn't sure about the trade. It would have helped if either side of the pattern was a hammer or at least a double bottom MSL. Highlighted in green on the chart is the trigger candle. As usual, enter 0.25 point above its high, and place a stop 0.25 point below its low.

This is one of the very few patterns that I'll trade on the long side. So far I've only scalped it and hardly held it til its potential. It's a reliable enough pattern . Hence, should it fail, short it!

YIKES!!!

Exactly how many are still holding their shorts from yesterday??

Anyway, ES has broken out of that stupid wedge on the hourly (FINALLY), pulled back, and I really don't know where it's heading now.

740 perhaps?

I wanna throw up.

No, I'm not in any short position (thank goodness). But I really want to sell! The time that I wanted to buy had long passed!

ES 3/11

ES Hourly
I just keep seeing ES going back down to 681 support. That is, if it doesn't break above 723.75 resistance. If it does, I'll buy, depending on what develops on my charts.

Damn! I just missed this!
My fib ext drawn for nothing! Blogging is bad for the wallet!!

About Fighting The Trend

Trader Tao wrote:

I am a new trader, I agree that today is that kinda trendy day. buy and hold till the end. Don't quite understand why you fight with the trend and short it?

I read you blog recently, you are a great scalper to me, pls show me some tricks. I happen to use ToS platform too, if you bring up a chart of $UVOL-$DVOL, you will see the retracement never made a real reveral on net volume.

I haven't gone long, Trader Tao, coz I had missed the window that offers good setups for a long entry. I started looking at my charts only 3 hours before the US session began. I could have gone in after ES broke out of 692 of course, but I was wary of overhead resistance at 695, and a few more above it all the way to 723. When the pole of a bull flag was formed by 10am EST on the 3min, and 2 strong bullish candles were also seen on the 10min, I could have gone in long, but by then, I was already looking out for a short setup. PLUS I was even more wary of those resistances.

Like I said, I'm primarily bearish. I did acknowledge that it was going to be difficult to go in short after realizing that ES has been trending up quite nicely for half a day prior to market open. But that didn't change the fact that ES is still not on an uptrend. I don't want to simply react to what was happening, especially when I didn't know where it was going. I could pick a level that I think it's going to be stopped in its track, and put in a short entry there, and if it doesn't stop, so be it.

I wouldn't chase a move like yesterday without the proper setup. I had used stops in my shorts precisely coz I was prepared for ES to continue to go up to test resistance. In a nutshell, I was looking out for short setups only and passing up other opportunities. One has to stick with one's plans and rules. So I stuck to mine, and missed the run up. I'm fine with that. What happens next is to reassess the market and apply the same rules and plan to trade it.

Yes, I am much better at scalping than any other mode of trading. But it's been very tiring following the tape, and I can't do it continuously. When I get really drained, shit happens. I am looking for a calmer way to trade - cool is always good in trading. Adrenaline causes blow ups. I want to keep a cool head and a healthy heart to FEEL what the market's doing. Following the tape and scalping doesn't allow me to see the bigger picture. Above all, it doesn't allow me to put in a stop (no time!!). I'll still scalp from time to time, especially during the quieter hours. But my focus now is on the learning process, and not so much on making money. I will still take scalp profits whenever I see fit of course. But I'll avoid scalping as a method.

I don't have any tricks for scalping. I read charts and I read the tape, just like most scalpers do. How I go about doing it I've done a little explaining on my recent entries.

I don't look at up and down volume. If there's a follow through on a move, the price patterns will tell. I don't need to be able to predict accurately what's going to happen next to trade. In anycase, I can make all the right prediction and NOT make money, and I can make the wrong predictions and still make money. I was clearly going against trend yesterday, but like I mentioned yesterday, I could have taken the 3 point scalp profits a few times had I chosen to take them. Or I could have been right, and went long after I get a confirmation, and sat through a 5 - 7 point retracement each time. I mean, the flag pole was formed in the first 30min of the trading session and that was it. The rest of the run was unimpressive at best.

Things tend to look so obvious on hindsight. But I'm not one who looks back and regret not having taken a trade, or ran too early. The only thing I absolutely dislike, is not having traded my plan and respected my rules. Coz that tells me I'm still a lousy trader, and I still have a very long way to go.

Sorry for the long response. Just need to set the record straight that I'm never out to fight trends. If I were indeed fighting anything, it was D. He came home telling me repeatedly that Citi has made money, and I kept saying that I heard him, and that I actually KNEW about Citi's news, and I kept selling LOL!

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

ES Trades 3/10 - Best Day In Months!

One of the rare few times that I actually allowed my trades to go auto-pilot and stop-loss to kick in, when I could have taken my usual 1.5 points profit (total of 3 points for 2 trades).

I was going for 692 (entries and stop losses shown on chart above). 702.5 was a minor support, but on such a bullish day, a support IS a support. My finger was on the transmit at market button both times when ES was at 702.5 support - I had plenty of opportunities to run with my USD 150, and call it a day. But I just gotta let my stop loss do its work, so I can trust it in future. Can't remember the last time I did that.

I didn't chase ES up. Chasing always causes huge regrets and a lot of heartache. That said, looking at what's developing, it seems ES might just hit 723 today. Citi's good news working magic I suppose.

Well, I'll call today a good day, despite the USD 225 loss. It was stressless trading all the way. I had all the time in the world to figure out what my charts were doing, and all the time in the world to take scalp profits that were actually quite good compared to the usual ticks.

I'm definitely taking those profits in future, especially when I'm going counter-trend.

And I definitely should have waited for a star that sticks out like a sore thumb to appear before considering any short entries on a bullish trending day. Harami/inside bar is not good enough; neither a double top. Maybe I should even consider BUYING in future.

Loss: USD 225

ES 3/10

ES Hourly
Resistance at 694.75. Support at 676.25, then 665.75. Trendline providing support too...looks like we could be trading sideways today and tmrw barring any surprises in the market

ES Daily
I'm a bear. I keep imagining that the bullish candle for today is going to end up bearish....

ES 3min
Pivot below, open's below, and price is at day's high....It's nearly 6am EST now...Textbook.

Correction: Just noticed that ES has been on a pretty healthy uptrend for the past 15 hours ...I'll be watching support at 689.5 and 680.75

Game Plan & Rules

- Buy (day) low, sell (day) high

- Trade familiar setups

- Honor stop losses!!

Chart Setups (from ES 3/9)

Double Bottom (Wash and Rinse)
(ES 3min)

Reasons to enter long:
- 670.75 was day's low then

- End of wave 5
- Double-bottom Market Structure Low (MSL), which indicates strongly a change in trend

- Resistance is 10 points away (shooting star on the left)


Trigger
Candle: 3rd candle of MSL
Entry
: 0.25point above high of trigger
Stop
: 0.25 point below low of MSL
Exit
: Fib ext 161.8 (before entry, check for nearby resistance. If it's too near, don't bother entering) or when Stoch does a bearish crossover at overbought

3 Rising Valleys
(Same chart as above)
Reasons to enter long:
- 2nd higher low is a double-bottom MSL
- bears covering should create quite a good run (I know, coz I was holding a short, and covered once I noticed the higher low and the double bottom MSL! %&*(#$!!)
- Pivot is above, open is above, high of day is above, and it's the time of the day that ES should be trading towards those...

Trigger Candle: 3rd candle of MSL
Entry
: 0.25point above high of trigger
"Safer"
Entry (totally subjective - to me, it's higher risk as my stop would still be at the MSL) : 0.25 point above the previous peak
Stop: 0.25 point below low of MSL
Exit
: Fib ext 261.8 (Nearest resistance is shooting star on the extreme left, which is about 3 points away from fib 261.8, so, I would use 261.8) or when Stoch does a bearish crossover at overbought

In the 2 examples above, stochastics and RSI have both visited oversold and turned up from there (best to avoid those that have not first gone down to oversold). Decision to take trades should be based on price actions (see "reasons to enter" above) and not on indicators though.

Both are setups that I'm adding to my "trade setups" warehouse. I didn't trade them yesterday. But I know they almost always work - I've sat through them while holding short positions often enough to know. Everytime I saw these patterns, I instinctively knew I was going to have to ride a potential loss of 8 - 12 points. Then I'd curse myself for not trusting a pattern I've seen over and over, and for continuing to hold my shorts. For most of them, I've gotten out with a small gain that is totally not worth the pain and COST of waiting.

Letter To Harry

Dear Harry,

Thanks for your email. It's very sweet. :-)

I'm sorry I've caused you to feel down. Apparently I'm not the only that feels others' pain.

My mum called and said she's lost her job, having problem with her eyes, and is scheduled for a brain scan. She's lonely and depressed, and asked if I am feeling depressed too. I told her to stop asking me questions like these, although I know she's just concerned. We know mine is a genetic condition. My dad killed himself. On my mum's side, 2 of her 3 siblings have taken their own lives. So, it runs in the family, and I'm worried for her too. She's caused a lot of pain to the family in the past, so my siblings and I have not been close to her. But still, she's my mother. Her situation makes me feel immensely sad. Since I don't know how to talk nice to her, I text her after we've hung up, and told her to think happy thoughts. Seabloke said she would call her too, and that makes me happy.

I then began to think why I don't do what I preach: to think happy thoughts. I get sad so readily it baffles me. I see a bird dying in the middle of the road, or a cat limping, or a handicapped sitting on a busy street by his electric piano eating from a Styrofoam lunch box, and I can feel sad for weeks. The bird - I didn't get the image out of my mind for years. A few weeks ago, I took a dragonfly that's hurt home. D said it looked like its time was near. I couldn't get myself to just leave it outside, so I put it in a box high up on the shelf so my cats couldn't reach it, gave it water and breadcrumbs, and hoped it would get back some energy and maybe pull through. It died the very night. D said I should have left it outside so I didn't have to watch it die. But to me, at least it didn't have to be exposed to the elements that night. It saddens me to see helplessness and hopelessness. Things seemingly trivial to others make me feel terribly sad, so sad that it will get me questioning the purpose that we're here - all we living things. Are we here just to make earth a happening place, and we have to die so the next generation can give it a brand new look?

About me being tough - yes I am. Quite a bitch in fact.

Totally explains why I'm confused....

Seriously, I think I know I have to be tough coz I understand that we are fundamentally lonely beings. We are on our own, whether we like it or not. We came alone, and will leave alone. That's about the only 2 facts that can never ever be refuted. I've learned from young to not depend, and along the way, I've also learned to not expect.

Thank you for thinking that I'm a sweet girl. I usually don't take that as a compliment. But for you, I'll make an exception. :-)

I'll make an effort to banish negative thoughts.But if sometimes I can't help but have to dump my frustrations on my blog, I don't want you to be affected.

Thanks for having been a great friend.

Knot

I am on the brink of a nervous breakdown.

My relationship is complicated, and my life feels pretty screwed.

Maybe it's all my fault. Maybe it's all his. It doesn't matter anymore.

Staying away from the market. Trading is about my only drive in life now, and I don't want to make a mess out of it too.

Sunday, March 8, 2009

My Trading Setups (I)


Breakout Of Wave 4 Triangle


One of my favorite plays - when wave 4 (or B) is a triangle. Here, I'm trading against buyers who had jumped on the bandwagon of running bears earlier and are now looking to bail.

I'd wait for a second close after price breaks out of triangle. I like to see a doji or a spinning top after that, which would be my trigger candle (ie. I'll start looking out to buy or sell after price has gone 1 tick above/below the high/low of that candle - price can do its usual pull back and all, my focus will only be on that price).

In the above example, the low of the trigger candle (highlighted in yellow oval) is 708. I'll watch what the tape does once market goes offer at 707.75 and if offers continue to increase despite being hit in sizable quantities, and if bids start to dwindle as comparable sizes are being hit, I'll place a limit order at 707.75 first. Once bids start to disappear, I'd cancel my limit order and hit a tick below market.

Knowing that support is at 705.5, I'll not expect price to fall more than 2 points. I'm usually out by 1.5 to 1.75 points in this case. And this is considered a good run if it happens in less than 3 minutes.

Wave B (or 4) Range Play

Here I'm trading a Wave B 3-3-3-3-3 wedge. The premise is my assumption that ES is trading towards the high of the day at 724.25. I usually trade a 3rd touch of the floor of the wedge (subwave D here).

Trigger is high of highlighted candle (the 3rd candle of a market structure low). I'll start paying attention to how tape behaves as price (bid) moves 1 tick above the high of that candle (ie. at 717.5). Again, I don't set a specific exit target. With major resistance at 724, and channel resistance at at least 2 points away, I have a trade. I get out once bids gets hit big time and offers are not being snapped up.

Breakout of 9-Wave B (or 4) Wedge

This is a 9-wave broadening wedge that I'll play for shorts. Doesn't matter if this is a wave 4 or wave B, it is simply a corrective wave. What that means is that I'm assuming there's going to be a 2nd leg to a measured move down (1st leg highlighted in blue rectangle). What I like about this setup is that subwave I is exactly where it should be ie. at key resistance (high of the day). When price is stopped there, it validates the pattern that I've identified.

I would have taken a trade at the break of the red dotted trendline within the wedge had it not been for the long pull back candle and the subsequent long bearish candle. What I would do in this case, instead, is that I would wait for price to break out of the wedge and wait for a pull back so I get a market structure high (MSH) to trade.

Trigger candle is again the 3rd candle of the MSH. As usual, I would watch how price behaves at 716.5. With support at 711.75, I usually will take the trade even if tape is not moving as fast as I like it to. But because I expect ES to trade in a downward CHANNEL, I'd be prepared to exit after 1 to 1.25 points.

Notice how you can also trade wave H on the long side. It's the 3rd touch of the floor of the broadening wedge. My kind of long play. I don't trade upward breakouts, as always. At least for now.

About Blogging Motives & Depression

I really like Complacent Panda's latest posting on "Motives". Perhaps coz it brought up a number of points that I can really subscribe to.

From time to time, I ask myself why I'm still blogging.

The answer is always this: my blog is a place where I can dump my thoughts - both toxic and benign. It's a place I feel safe enough to speak my mind, be myself, and from where I get a little interaction with fellow human beings. It's primarily a trading blog still of course - where I keep track of my progress and stockpile my trading ideas and plans.

The reason I want to write as little as possible on non-trading related matters is so that those who are here to take a peek at the life of someone who trades fulltime will not find the visit a waste of their time. Somehow, along the way, I started to actually want this blog to benefit others too. I'm still insisting that my writing doesn't educate. But for those who are curious about the struggles of a woman who was raised to embrace non-capitalist values, who knew next to nothing about investing and trading before, and who's now aspiring to someday be able to trade for a living, I hope my blog will at least give them a rough idea...

A warning to those who chance upon this personal space of mine - I'm not a particularly cheery person, and although I totally advocate positive thinking, I'm still very far from being able to do that on a consistent basis. I suffer from chronic depression since I turned 17, and am on long-term medication to keep my blood pressure down and my brain from firing too many signals (to do crazy things). Unprovoked, I'm nice, generally. I was raised the very traditionally Chinese way by an English educated father (who didn't know how to write his name in Chinese) - yes that means I got a fair amount of spankings as a kid, always greet my elders and say my pleases and thank yous, and smile A LOT - and self-control is my 3rd motto. What that means is that you won't see a lot of expletives even when I'm really, really mad. So, just because I'm not swearing and cursing doesn't necessarily mean that I'm not frustrated or pissed. I am an emotional person, and bad trades affect me. When I'm not ecstatically happy, it usually means I'm either pissed or downright depressed.

If you trade, and are somewhat of a moody person, my trading journey and results might offer an insight as to whether there's really any truth in the popular saying that only the emotionally inert should trade. To the best of my knowledge, most traders are consistently depressed.

And I'm a woman. So expect me to have more mood swings than the general trading population.

Friday, March 6, 2009

ES & TF Trades 3/6

Total for today: USD 157

Just when you think that ES is getting choppier by the day, TF is both choppy and crazy. I really have nothing much to say about my trades. It's been difficult to find entries for ES coz the tape's simply not giving much signals. Looking for setups from charts means hours of sitting and watching. TF is totally impossible to trade based on tape. Charts are not looking pretty either. In fact, ES charts are really starting to look prettier.

TF has become a freaky stranger.

SIGH.

I'm calling it a day. My heart can use some rest. Don't wanna die in my sleep (Check out Sage's Matter of The Heart).

ES 3/6

ES Daily
ES Hourly

Once we close below 681.5, I would take it that our odds of reaching 645 (fib ext 132.8) has become higher.
ES 10min
We are now trading within the range of the last bullish candle on the 10min. Within the day, I'm prepared for ES to test 688.75 - 703.5, although my view is primarily bearish.

Game Plan
Using mainly the 3min and 1min for scalping. Will go primarily for shorts at key resistance. Longs will be considered as price makes newer lows.

RULES
- Honor all stops
- No holding of any loss for more than the max pain set for the day - exit position once reason for getting in is no longer there.
- Be objective at all times and stay with what chart is doing, NOT what it has done and what I think it will do
- Be attentive to what candles are saying, especially on 10mins.
- DOJIs! DOJIs! DOJIs!

ES Trades 3/5 - Love Scalping


Took 8 scalps to save half of what was lost in 2 trades that I used a stop loss and a target. Definitely not going to continue to experiment with holding a trade. Sticking to tape and tick indicator from now on until market's less crazy.

It's not a bad day. I decided to give holding a trade a shot, and was prepared to take the loss.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Will We Have Rainbows, Ever?

Lord Tedders' back on his trading blog! His comeback post: Time For Changes

Maybe I did mention to him that one is supposed to be able to write what he/she wants to on his/her own diary. I don't remember anymore, coz for a long time now, I've not been able to vent on mine.

My general motto towards life has always been to "MOVE ON". Shit happens to everyone, no one is spared - some get it more frequently than they think they can bear; the lucky ones get it maybe just once a year (like during Xmas and Chinese New Year). So I don't ask, "WHY ME?" - especially when I"m usually the one that cause bad things to happen in my life and to those around me.

So, unless I think that venting on my blog after crying alone helps get the toxins out of my system, I do not document unhappy moments on this personal journal of mine.

When I read this a few years down the road, I don't want to see an angry, out-of-control monster.

And I don't want a certain someone to have to read about all the things that make me perpetually mad, and sad.

But the fact remains that I am an angry person in a constant state of depression. I don't think it has anything to do with my trading full time. Maybe I'm born depressed, and I happened to have chosen just the job for me.

On Mar 04 2008, something really, really bad came to light. A chain of events took place after that that had me taking a good, hard look at myself. It was then that I realized I never grew beyond 16. I never grew out of being Daddy's girl, even after Dad has passed on for 15 years.

All I can say now is that I'm broken. Maybe I'll never be repaired. Maybe I'll never be able to contribute to society, or make a difference in anyone's life.

But life goes on.

It has to.

ES 3/5

ES Daily

ES Hourly
Turns out that what's in the green wedge is wave v in an ending diagonal. What I'm seeing now is the forming of abc corrective wave (wave IV). Looks like a Flat to me.

ES 10min
ES 3min
Support at 681.5. That's the way I see it for now. Will see how chart plays out.

Game Plan
Playing by ear. Experimenting with a setup that allows me to not have to run in and out. Would have worked out perfectly yesterday had I not had a short bias. 2nd entry was a disaster just for the simple reason that I failed to honor my stop.

RULES
- Honor all stops
- Be objective at all times and stay with what chart is doing, NOT what it has done and what I think it will do
- Be attentive to what candles are saying, especially on 10mins.
- DOJIs! DOJIs! DOJIs!

I hate D & W.

I hate D & J more though - Mismatch of the millennium.

ES Trades 3/4 - I Am A Bloody Woman

I am pissed with myself.

I keep holding on to THINGS I shouldn't be holding on to.

When will I ever learn to let go?

For today: -USD 375

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

ES 3/4

SPX Weekly
What I'm seeing: the next real support at 595 - 600

SPX Daily
What I'm seeing: we are in wave 3 of corrective wave Z.

What that means to me is that we still have a long way to go in the current downtrend. ADX could always go up to 50. It's done that before anyway.

ES Hourly
What I'm seeing: we are at wave 4 & 5 of wave v (which seems to be taking the form of an ending diagonal) of wave III (see SPX daily above).

Elliot aside, it simply means that I see ES moving up to 700 resistance and reversing to look for bottom at floor of green broadening wedge. Using wave 1 as seed, Fib ext 261.8 at 655 is my target for now.

That's the smaller picture. Don't quite want to think about the bigger one yet.

ES 3min
I'm going with the scenario that ES will trade up to 700, at most to 709, then move down beyond the low for today (681.85). It could trade within that range (681 - 709) during the pre-US market hours, and if it's trading in the upper region of that range by the time the active trading session begins, it's only going to get smacked down (after all, everyone loves to fade a gap, especially a gap up during a time like this). To where? I don't know. 655 I think. Just something for me to work with. Not entirely impossible. In order for us to move up, we need to go down big time first. This inching down everyday is not going to help.

Game Plan & Rules

Will trade the rally up if ES comes back down to white dotted uptrend line (on 3min chart above). Else, will give it a miss until it hits the high for the day. Then I'll be looking to short. I'll go long only if it trades in diagonal triangles (where wave 4 overlaps wave 1).

As usual, NOT going to hold any loss for more than 1 point. Will exit position once reason for getting in is no longer there.

ES Trades 3/3

Not a fantastic day:

1) Lost internet connection thrice - when I was in trade!
2) My cordless mouse kept asking me for new battery, and I couldn't give it one until D came home!
3) Planned my trades, traded my plan, got the direction right, totally stuck to my rules, and yet made no money.
4) My computer crashed on me, and when I managed to get it back up, I've lost the record of today's trades!!

All in all, I had 7 trades today. 4 winning, 3 losing. In sequence, it would be: win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win. Profit (before paying my broker USD 33.60 for 7 round trades): ZERO

Today's the day I realized that there are simply just days when you can do everything right, and not profit from it.

More importantly, I would like to celebrate today as the day that I finally felt absolutely nothing when I exited with small losses more than twice.

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

ES 3/3

SPX & ES Daily


Not looking so good....Index's really looking like it could trend further down...

ES Hourly
Definitely still holding the view that ES is trading down to the floor of the broadening wedge (blue trendlines) with the completion of wave 5....

ES 10min
I'm really not optimistic that ES will trade above pivot (at around 714).
675 (Fib ext 261.8) is where I think it could be going.

Game Plan & Rules

ES 3min

If wave c were to stop at 713.75, forming a double top with end of wave a, I'll look to scalp a 5-wave downtrend.

Again, NOT going to hold any loss for more than 1 point. Will exit position once reason for getting in is no longer there.

Monday, March 2, 2009

ES Trades 3/2

ES 3min
Before 7am EST, all downward movements were motive waves; all upward, corrective. High for the day for now is a mere 2.5 points higher than open and 6 points away from the high of the day's trading range, pivot's nowhere in sight, and newer lows have been reached with no sustainable bottom in sight.

While I'm usually unwilling to sell at such levels, today, I see no reason to just sit and watch. Counting waves have helped tremendously. Yet to figure out why I didn't do that before in scalping. I was probably too busy keeping a lookout for other things such as candlestick patterns, - which I've found rather unreliable in futures trading (except for maybe the stars and hammers, and, occasionally, the engulfing and haramis; hanging men work alright on the 3min).

Still relying largely on the tape to get in and out of trades during pre-US market hours. During active trading hours, the NYSE tick seems a saner choice.

Today's a relatively calm day for me. With the exception of the very first entry (which I held for too long again - doesn't matter that it didn't turn out to be a losing trade, I hate turning scalps to daytrades), I've kept to my rules about not sitting. Chose entries that were likely to go in my direction immediately. Charts were used to identify key S & R levels, market depth gave me a clue as to who is bailing when these levels are not reached/breached.

ES' looking like it could go up on a double bottom at 711.25 if it were to visit that level again before testing the high of day at 733.75.

Calling it a day.

For today: USD 200

Seabloke, Pilot, Me & Frankenstein

Seabloke dropped by today with Pilot (by the way, Pilot is really a pilot. A very dashing and mysterious man....My lucky future sister-in-law....) and lunch.

I went about setting up the table rather absent-mindedly, as my mind was on my charts, as always.

Finally when we were all seated and ready to dig in, Pilot said this AGAIN (the very first thing he said when I answered the door, but I was too distracted to pay any attention...):

"Thomas Edison did NOT invent the electric light bulb."

Sea: So who did?

Me: Frankenstein

Sea:????????

Pilot: An employee of Edison did. He was not given any credit for it.

Me: Ya, and his name is Frankenstein.

Sea: Seriously guys, so Thomas Edison wasn't the one who invented the electric light bulb?

Me: No, it was Frankenstein. The poor guy was struck by lightning in the process, turned green, and wasn't given any credit.

Pilot: By the way, do you guys know that the 108 Heroes of Liang Shan were actually terrorists?

Sea & Me: ???????

Me: What has that got to do with Frankenstein?

Pilot: I can't believe that people buy the story of 108 GOOD men. There's only 1 man that I'd call good and he's dead: Gandhi.

Sea: And Nelson Mandela

Me: But he's not dead yet.

Sea: ?????!!!!!

Sea: So, Pilot, from where did you find out that Thomas Edison was not the inventor of the light bulb?

Pilot: People talk. His employees have children and grandchildren who started talking.

Me: Well, so the man who was supposed to invent the telephone didn't actually invent the telephone, and now the man who was supposed to invent the light bulb didn't actually invent the light bulb...hmmm....so who was the poor fella who got struck by lightning??

Pilot: Wait, let me finish the story of the 108 terrorists.

Sea:???????????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sea insisted that I put this on my blog. I had no idea why, until she text me a while ago.

Sea: I still cannot stop reeling over Frankenstein.

Me: Why leh? He did invent the lightbulb mah.....No meh??

Sea: Yah Frankenstein did...

Me: Then why you laugh?

Sea: Hahahahahahahaha!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAHHHHHAAAAAHA!!!!!!

Sea again: I don't know why people find their siblings boring and rather go in search of friends. I cannot find anyone more hilarious than my siblings!

Ok, Sea, happy now? You just can't write your own diary can you? You better have this saved and backed up....

Oh, and I love you very,very,very much too!

But I'm not chipping in for your dinning table.

I'm preparing my own gift. Yes, I suffer from low self-esteem and just have to make a mark. LOL!!!!

ES 3/2

SPX Weekly
SPX Daily
ES Hourly

SPX weekly: Next level of support at 600

SPX Daily: We seem to be in wave 3 now...

ES Hourly:
We seem to be in wave 3 of an extended wave 3 of the higher degree (volume trend is NOT contradicting that)....ES could test low at floor of channel (in pink), bounce off from there, reverse back down at 729.5, then make its way to the floor of the broadening wedge (in blue), completing wave 5. By then, we should be at around 600, which is about Fib 261.8 from price peak at 1440.

Game Plan & Rules

ES 3min
ES just broke out of triangle. Looks like a wave 2 to me. I'm not doing anything until a temporary low has been formed ie. completion of wave 3. Will probably trade wave 4 up to the base of the triangle (which will be resistance for now) if wave 3 is substantially longer than what I'm actually seeing now. Definitely not making any attempts to call a bottom again. It's more likely that I'll look to sell short to end of wave 3 from resistance. Will see.

I'm hypothesizing that the low is going to be the completion of the 2nd leg of a measured move down...could be 714 - 716, or a perfect 700....

Anyway, it looks quite unlikely to me that we will get anywhere near pivot at 740 today . But the market has been doing strange things, so I'll be prepared for anything.

Given that we actually traded away from pivot on Friday, if the same scenario were to unfold today, it would be very telling of a market that's gone quite psycho.

What that means to me is that I would totally pass up risky entries. No entering on the assumption that price will make a dash for a particular level. Definitely no holding of any positions for more than 10 mins. No sitting on loss of more than 0.75 point for pre-market entries. If trade is not going in the desired direction, get out and wait for next setup. Sitting is a plain waste of time. Premarket gives plenty of opportunities to bail at breakeven or very minimal damage within mins.