Beautiful plunge!!
NQ behaves exactly like ER2!
Total for the day:
Friday, September 26, 2008
NQ (Simulated) Trades (Part 2) 9/25
Beautiful plunge!!
NQ behaves exactly like ER2!
Total for the day:
NQ (Simulated) Trades 9/25
Pre-Market Trades:
Trades after 9:30am EST:
Total: $1218
Trades after 9:30am EST:
Total: $1218
I'm happy.
I'll be happier if it's real money of course.
NQ makes me feel normal again.
Sure beats trading against systems programmed to capture difference between cash and futures market every tick!!
I'll be happier if it's real money of course.
NQ makes me feel normal again.
Sure beats trading against systems programmed to capture difference between cash and futures market every tick!!
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Adios, ES!!
Latest simulated trades and result:
This posting is to convince ME that ES is simply NOT my department, and I should stay away from it!
It's either that there's something seriously wrong with me, or there's something queer about ES that others have had the patience to figure out (D broke the code I think!) but not me.
Although it would be really nice to know, I'm going to quit searching for answers. Life is short, I'm moving on to trade other instruments.
Thanks, Don, Cory, LT, Solfest, FX, HPT for your advice and suggestions. I'm checking out those alternatives.
It's either that there's something seriously wrong with me, or there's something queer about ES that others have had the patience to figure out (D broke the code I think!) but not me.
Although it would be really nice to know, I'm going to quit searching for answers. Life is short, I'm moving on to trade other instruments.
Thanks, Don, Cory, LT, Solfest, FX, HPT for your advice and suggestions. I'm checking out those alternatives.
FX, NQ,YG, ES Trades (Simulated) 9/25
Position closed for:
All 4 FX pairs : $879.97
NQ: $966
YG: $61.02
ES: - $102.40
Total: $1804.59
D commented that it seems the only instrument I can't trade is ES.
How true. Even in simulated trading, I lose money.
All 4 FX pairs : $879.97
NQ: $966
YG: $61.02
ES: - $102.40
Total: $1804.59
D commented that it seems the only instrument I can't trade is ES.
How true. Even in simulated trading, I lose money.
FX and YG (Simulated) Trades 9/25
FX
(Click to enlarge)
Positions are still open.
Charts used: Daily
USDJPY (Short)
EURUSD (Long)
EURJPY (Long)
GBPJPY (Long)
YG (Long)
Position's still opened
Charts used: Daily and 30-min
Not sure yet if I have the nerve to hold YG:
- 30-min chart shows a bull flag that has taken too long to form ie. YG could slide after hitting resistance
- Daily chart is also showing an YG that's hovering just slightly below resistance.
YG Daily
YG 30-min
ES Trades 9/24
Today's one of the most frustrating sessions for D and me.
I started making my first move - solo - at 10:25am EST. I wasn't comfortable getting in - simply because I knew that had I been confident enough, I would have gotten in sometime between 9:30 to 10:00. The fact that I couldn't find an entry within that window told me that I had lost half the battle - the psychology part.
I went in, anyhow, and shorted ES just slightly above its support:
Chart showing the point where D was about to make a move:
Then D saw an opportunity to go in (see chart above), which I wasn't aware of coz I was kind of taking a back seat by then. As D was about to make his move (and I had no idea that he was actually all set to go), I blurted out that ES looked like it was getting ready to break UP, NOT down. A few seconds later, I commented that it's going to go sideways for a while.
D was REALLY PISSED by then. He got up from my workstation, and went back to his. I realized what was happening, and shut down IB, passing him the token so he could trade from his workstation.
But D was just too mad to trade. I didn't know what to say (I knew I should have just apologized, as D would have, had he been the one that had messed with my mind, but something caught my tongue and I just couldn't say I was sorry). So I left the token with him and went out for a rather long walk.
When I returned, D was in a better mood. We talked about what happened and concluded that it was a bad idea for both of us to trade together. We are both stubborn and hot-tempered, yet we always take into consideration each other's opinions and views and feelings.
It's just a big mess when the 2 of us come together to do anything coz as a woman, I'm not exactly subservient, and as a man, D is not chauvinistic enough to ask me to shut up. So the outcome is a very frustrated D, and a very screwed up me.
Anyway, D ended up reaping some profits when I decided to go in for a shower. He really does perform a lot better without my being around to influence him.
And I continue to detest ES more than I detest Bush and Cinderella's 2 evil step-sisters.
I started making my first move - solo - at 10:25am EST. I wasn't comfortable getting in - simply because I knew that had I been confident enough, I would have gotten in sometime between 9:30 to 10:00. The fact that I couldn't find an entry within that window told me that I had lost half the battle - the psychology part.
I went in, anyhow, and shorted ES just slightly above its support:
And like I've said many times before, ES always does the opposite of what I thought it would do (in future, I'm going to write down my intention ie. to short or go long, then DO THE EXACT OPPOSITE when executing the trade!!). Without exception this time, it rallied right at the point that I entered short (see chart above).
I stubbornly sat through the rally, coz I've seen ES does this too many times (ie. it goes up, hits its resistance, comes back down, and basically trades within a specific range for at least the first half of the trading session), and I expected it to come back down to exactly where I shorted.
True enough, ES went up, then came down, and as I was all set to close my position, a hammer formed so quickly I didn't get a good exit and I got out without breaking-even (refer to chart above to see my exit point).
At this point, D was already seated by my side, and had witnessed the final phase of my fun ride up and down. I wasn't exactly in good spirit, but D was nice about it. He took over right away, and went long:
I made a remark about wash-and-rinse, meaning to warn D that if he meant to scalp (to me, scalping means you don't intend to stay for more than 1 or 2 candles on a 1-min chart), then be prepared for ES to do a slight correction before it goes up (And I figured it should go up coz it had reached it's low - if it tends to range, then the probable scenario would be it going back up, especially when it's supported by a HAMMER).
In retrospect, I was really messing with D's mind. He was totally confused and pissed and got out after making barely half a point.
When ES started to rally after he exited, that was just too much for D and he went out for a smoke, totally enraged.
I stayed with my chart and started to see what it was doing.
When D returned after about 5 minutes, we talked as if nothing had happened and continued to monitor ES' move.
At a certain point, all we saw was that ES was ready to slide.
I stubbornly sat through the rally, coz I've seen ES does this too many times (ie. it goes up, hits its resistance, comes back down, and basically trades within a specific range for at least the first half of the trading session), and I expected it to come back down to exactly where I shorted.
True enough, ES went up, then came down, and as I was all set to close my position, a hammer formed so quickly I didn't get a good exit and I got out without breaking-even (refer to chart above to see my exit point).
At this point, D was already seated by my side, and had witnessed the final phase of my fun ride up and down. I wasn't exactly in good spirit, but D was nice about it. He took over right away, and went long:
I made a remark about wash-and-rinse, meaning to warn D that if he meant to scalp (to me, scalping means you don't intend to stay for more than 1 or 2 candles on a 1-min chart), then be prepared for ES to do a slight correction before it goes up (And I figured it should go up coz it had reached it's low - if it tends to range, then the probable scenario would be it going back up, especially when it's supported by a HAMMER).
In retrospect, I was really messing with D's mind. He was totally confused and pissed and got out after making barely half a point.
When ES started to rally after he exited, that was just too much for D and he went out for a smoke, totally enraged.
I stayed with my chart and started to see what it was doing.
When D returned after about 5 minutes, we talked as if nothing had happened and continued to monitor ES' move.
At a certain point, all we saw was that ES was ready to slide.
Chart showing the point where D was about to make a move:
Then D saw an opportunity to go in (see chart above), which I wasn't aware of coz I was kind of taking a back seat by then. As D was about to make his move (and I had no idea that he was actually all set to go), I blurted out that ES looked like it was getting ready to break UP, NOT down. A few seconds later, I commented that it's going to go sideways for a while.
D was REALLY PISSED by then. He got up from my workstation, and went back to his. I realized what was happening, and shut down IB, passing him the token so he could trade from his workstation.
But D was just too mad to trade. I didn't know what to say (I knew I should have just apologized, as D would have, had he been the one that had messed with my mind, but something caught my tongue and I just couldn't say I was sorry). So I left the token with him and went out for a rather long walk.
When I returned, D was in a better mood. We talked about what happened and concluded that it was a bad idea for both of us to trade together. We are both stubborn and hot-tempered, yet we always take into consideration each other's opinions and views and feelings.
It's just a big mess when the 2 of us come together to do anything coz as a woman, I'm not exactly subservient, and as a man, D is not chauvinistic enough to ask me to shut up. So the outcome is a very frustrated D, and a very screwed up me.
Anyway, D ended up reaping some profits when I decided to go in for a shower. He really does perform a lot better without my being around to influence him.
And I continue to detest ES more than I detest Bush and Cinderella's 2 evil step-sisters.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Killer Resume
Was doing some serious research on instruments with properties similar to ER2 when I received a hilarious mail from a very cute friend of mine. Couldn't go back to work anymore coz I JUST COULDN'T STOP LAUGHING over the content of the email.
Since I can't work, I'm just going to have to distract everyone else.
Here's what's in the email attachment (Subject: Resume - Secretary from Ipoh, Malaysia), courtesy from M:
Since I can't work, I'm just going to have to distract everyone else.
Here's what's in the email attachment (Subject: Resume - Secretary from Ipoh, Malaysia), courtesy from M:
SECRETARY 'S RESUME
Deer Sir,
Employer's reply:......
Dear Peggy,
It's OK honey, we've got spell check.....
Welcome onboard!!!
ES Trades 9/23
Today's session's simply pure fun:
- Trades #1 and 2 were combined efforts with D: he entered (for ES, entry's NOT my department - I either get in too early or too late), I closed (NOT D's department- he tends to get out too soon).
- Trades #3 and 4 were D's trades.
- Trade #5 (final trade) was mine.
We sat together looking at the same screens the whole time.
D couldn't stop talking about the moves, pausing only to ask why I couldn't stop drawing lines on the chart.
When ES was going nowhere, we played a brief game of soccer in the spacious area between our workstations and the book cabinet :-D
Realizing that our P&L was in positive region, D suggested at 12pm EST that we call it a day so that I'll start tomorrow with more confidence and brighter spirit.
D is the strangest man I know. Strangely cool and detached, yet strangely compassionate and gentle.
I wonder if it was coz he found me sleeping on the living room settee (my comfort corner of our home) this morning that he felt compelled to give me some moral support.
D's warmth can be awfully touching; his love and friendship priceless.
For someone who's sent away at 16 to live totally alone (yes, sans friends and relatives) in a country so far away from home it takes more than 20 hours to fly there, I'm hopelessly attached to D. On that fateful 26th April 08, the day I saw him off at the airport and figured he wasn't going to come home ever, my world stopped. Time stopped, and I could feel my life slipping away. D was gone for 48 hours and I lost 2 kgs and aged 5 years.
D is a curse. Without him, I'm a living dead.
D couldn't stop talking about the moves, pausing only to ask why I couldn't stop drawing lines on the chart.
When ES was going nowhere, we played a brief game of soccer in the spacious area between our workstations and the book cabinet :-D
Realizing that our P&L was in positive region, D suggested at 12pm EST that we call it a day so that I'll start tomorrow with more confidence and brighter spirit.
D is the strangest man I know. Strangely cool and detached, yet strangely compassionate and gentle.
I wonder if it was coz he found me sleeping on the living room settee (my comfort corner of our home) this morning that he felt compelled to give me some moral support.
D's warmth can be awfully touching; his love and friendship priceless.
For someone who's sent away at 16 to live totally alone (yes, sans friends and relatives) in a country so far away from home it takes more than 20 hours to fly there, I'm hopelessly attached to D. On that fateful 26th April 08, the day I saw him off at the airport and figured he wasn't going to come home ever, my world stopped. Time stopped, and I could feel my life slipping away. D was gone for 48 hours and I lost 2 kgs and aged 5 years.
D is a curse. Without him, I'm a living dead.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
What Happens When We Die - An Article That Caught My Heart
Took some time off to clear my mind, and started reading things that have nothing to do with the market and politics.
Chanced upon an article that talks about what happens when a person dies.
A topic that has always fascinated me.
Yes, I'm obsessed with "Death" and generally with the notion of "Existence".
I'm constantly imagining what it feels like to NOT exist.
Since I was 4, I've been afraid that my father would die, as if I really understood what "death" meant. Every night before I slept, I would lament having lived another day, coz that would mean that my father was 1 day older and 1 day nearer to dying. I was constantly torn between wanting to grow up so that I could start buying whatever I wanted (back then it was just chips, fries and coke - which were banned in my home), and wanting time to stop so my father won't ever grow old. I never felt happy on his birthdays, for obvious reason.
In fact, I'm starting to think that maybe my fixation on what's to become of him when he vanishes from the face of earth was what invited the bad karma....he died young.
2 weeks before he took his own life, I had a dream about him jumping off a building. I was in Edmonton, 20 hours' flight away from him. I couldn't stop thinking about the nightmare, and I couldn't tell anyone about it. I have a history of predicting events in my dreams and whenever I told people, including my doctor, I would get a look that I wouldn't find very flattering.
Years after my father died, I began to explore "soul travelling".
Since I was 17, I've had countless episodes of finding myself consciously aware of everything happening around me when I was supposed to be deep in slumber. It was years later that I learnt about "out of body experience".
In the first few years of such occurrences (which was as frequent as a few times a week and sometimes twice a day), with my body lying still on my bed (yes I could see myself), I would wonder around the house and check out my roommate (not that I intentionally wanted to, I just drifted there).
When I woke up (which is always a terrible struggle - I would be all ready to get up but my body would just refuse to respond according to my will), I would tell my roommate what she was doing, writing and talking about while I was fast asleep on my bed.
She got used to it eventually (and she's still my best friend today, after almost 12 years that we graduated).
But what happened was always involuntary and I always felt helpless and totally lost as to where I was going to be transported to (I've been among stars and in tunnels which doesn't stop winding).
So I decided that rather than being yanked out of my body against my will, I shall control when I want to leave my body, and where I would go.
And the ONLY place I ever wanted to go was wherever my father was, and I always thought he had taken residence among the stars in the sky.
It took me half a year of practising daily the method taught in books. I always failed whenever I became aware that I was actually out of my body. On one occasion, I actually told myself not to think about it, and, voila, I was wide awake. My last attempt was the furthest I ever got to - I actually floated a few inches above my body and saw myself and D. Then the awareness factor kicked in, as usual - I realized I was out, and I woke up immediately.
That was 5 years ago. I learnt later that it wasn't exactly the kind of thing that normal people do, and that it's not what God wants us to do. I got rid of all the books and material on soul travel, and started going to church.
For 13 years, I - or more precisely, my soul - have been to places that I couldn't even identify til today. I've heard sounds so loud I cannot find anything on earth to compare it with, and stillness so quiet I've never heard it anywhere in this world we live in (even in Edmonton, where it could get so quiet in the house my father bought in the suburb - where I lived alone at 16 - that I could hear my own heartbeat every night). Sadly, I could hardly call it an adventure, coz I sure didn't enjoy any part of it, and was in perpetual fear of being "taken" forever.
This is the 5th year that I've been left alone. But I'll never stop wanting to know where exactly were those places I've been to, with colors I've never seen before, and structures and sounds I doubt I will ever find the words to describe.
And I still want to know where my father is now. What happened to him after he died?
Chanced upon an article that talks about what happens when a person dies.
A topic that has always fascinated me.
Yes, I'm obsessed with "Death" and generally with the notion of "Existence".
I'm constantly imagining what it feels like to NOT exist.
Since I was 4, I've been afraid that my father would die, as if I really understood what "death" meant. Every night before I slept, I would lament having lived another day, coz that would mean that my father was 1 day older and 1 day nearer to dying. I was constantly torn between wanting to grow up so that I could start buying whatever I wanted (back then it was just chips, fries and coke - which were banned in my home), and wanting time to stop so my father won't ever grow old. I never felt happy on his birthdays, for obvious reason.
In fact, I'm starting to think that maybe my fixation on what's to become of him when he vanishes from the face of earth was what invited the bad karma....he died young.
2 weeks before he took his own life, I had a dream about him jumping off a building. I was in Edmonton, 20 hours' flight away from him. I couldn't stop thinking about the nightmare, and I couldn't tell anyone about it. I have a history of predicting events in my dreams and whenever I told people, including my doctor, I would get a look that I wouldn't find very flattering.
Years after my father died, I began to explore "soul travelling".
Since I was 17, I've had countless episodes of finding myself consciously aware of everything happening around me when I was supposed to be deep in slumber. It was years later that I learnt about "out of body experience".
In the first few years of such occurrences (which was as frequent as a few times a week and sometimes twice a day), with my body lying still on my bed (yes I could see myself), I would wonder around the house and check out my roommate (not that I intentionally wanted to, I just drifted there).
When I woke up (which is always a terrible struggle - I would be all ready to get up but my body would just refuse to respond according to my will), I would tell my roommate what she was doing, writing and talking about while I was fast asleep on my bed.
She got used to it eventually (and she's still my best friend today, after almost 12 years that we graduated).
But what happened was always involuntary and I always felt helpless and totally lost as to where I was going to be transported to (I've been among stars and in tunnels which doesn't stop winding).
So I decided that rather than being yanked out of my body against my will, I shall control when I want to leave my body, and where I would go.
And the ONLY place I ever wanted to go was wherever my father was, and I always thought he had taken residence among the stars in the sky.
It took me half a year of practising daily the method taught in books. I always failed whenever I became aware that I was actually out of my body. On one occasion, I actually told myself not to think about it, and, voila, I was wide awake. My last attempt was the furthest I ever got to - I actually floated a few inches above my body and saw myself and D. Then the awareness factor kicked in, as usual - I realized I was out, and I woke up immediately.
That was 5 years ago. I learnt later that it wasn't exactly the kind of thing that normal people do, and that it's not what God wants us to do. I got rid of all the books and material on soul travel, and started going to church.
For 13 years, I - or more precisely, my soul - have been to places that I couldn't even identify til today. I've heard sounds so loud I cannot find anything on earth to compare it with, and stillness so quiet I've never heard it anywhere in this world we live in (even in Edmonton, where it could get so quiet in the house my father bought in the suburb - where I lived alone at 16 - that I could hear my own heartbeat every night). Sadly, I could hardly call it an adventure, coz I sure didn't enjoy any part of it, and was in perpetual fear of being "taken" forever.
This is the 5th year that I've been left alone. But I'll never stop wanting to know where exactly were those places I've been to, with colors I've never seen before, and structures and sounds I doubt I will ever find the words to describe.
And I still want to know where my father is now. What happened to him after he died?
ES Trades 9/22
WAY BEHIND MY DAILY TARGET!! By $1276.80!
I'm so exhausted after spending 10 hours with SUPER COOL ES I haven't the energy to curse.
It's either that I'm totally out of syn with it, or with the market in general.
Given a choice, I'd like to blame ES for its ultra stability, which clashes head-on with my total lack of equanimity.
But the better part of me knows that I have a prejudice against ES, and had traded it without a plan, coz I was just simply not interested.
I really have to let ER2 go and give ES a chance.
Well, at least I sat through the entire trading session with it today. A good start. Postmortem tomorrow, and will see if a total paradigm shift is in order.
How an equally impatient D can love ES' slow but fitful moves is simply beyond me.
In any case, when I can no longer put up with ES, I'm just going to have to go look for my beloved ER2. And I don't care that it's ICED!!
It's either that I'm totally out of syn with it, or with the market in general.
Given a choice, I'd like to blame ES for its ultra stability, which clashes head-on with my total lack of equanimity.
But the better part of me knows that I have a prejudice against ES, and had traded it without a plan, coz I was just simply not interested.
I really have to let ER2 go and give ES a chance.
Well, at least I sat through the entire trading session with it today. A good start. Postmortem tomorrow, and will see if a total paradigm shift is in order.
How an equally impatient D can love ES' slow but fitful moves is simply beyond me.
In any case, when I can no longer put up with ES, I'm just going to have to go look for my beloved ER2. And I don't care that it's ICED!!
Monday, September 22, 2008
DOW & SPX: Up, Up and Away?
DOW Daily
SPX Daily
SPX is clearly on a downtrend too. But with the ban on short selling, price can only go up. Provided there are still willing buyers.
The market's just totally screwed.
I don't know how to interpret this monstrous looking thing.
I see a bear flag that has apparently failed. DOW went under a key support but came back up and closed above it 2 sessions in a row.
However, the last session has closed below MA 50 resistance in what is primarily still a bear market.
So, what are we to expect in the sessions to come??
I see a surge in volume over the last 5 sessions, and the last 2 session's volume is telling of bears' frantic covering (not surprising, given the ban in short selling).
Or are people actually buying? But who's buying??
Me, perhaps, today.
If Big Brother wants the market to go up, why go against him??
MACD's looking really grotesque, and tells me nothing.
I see a bear flag that has apparently failed. DOW went under a key support but came back up and closed above it 2 sessions in a row.
However, the last session has closed below MA 50 resistance in what is primarily still a bear market.
So, what are we to expect in the sessions to come??
I see a surge in volume over the last 5 sessions, and the last 2 session's volume is telling of bears' frantic covering (not surprising, given the ban in short selling).
Or are people actually buying? But who's buying??
Me, perhaps, today.
If Big Brother wants the market to go up, why go against him??
MACD's looking really grotesque, and tells me nothing.
SPX Daily
SPX is clearly on a downtrend too. But with the ban on short selling, price can only go up. Provided there are still willing buyers.
The market's just totally screwed.
Are You Free, Americans?
Now, I wonder if the idea put forth in this article is what inspired the making of the film The Matrix....
An abstract from the article:
"The United States is bankrupt and has been since 1933. The government has no gold or silver as required by the Constitution. The only asset left is the people. So how does the U.S. finance its daily operations?
Solution, collateralize the people for credit. How? By registering them in international commerce, and selling bonds on them. The people become the surety on the bonds, or the "pledge". The asset bonded (surety) is the labor of the people which is payable as some undetermined future date. Thus, the people become the "utility" for the "transmission" of energy."
Read the full article if you're in the mood to be spooked.
An abstract from the article:
"The United States is bankrupt and has been since 1933. The government has no gold or silver as required by the Constitution. The only asset left is the people. So how does the U.S. finance its daily operations?
Solution, collateralize the people for credit. How? By registering them in international commerce, and selling bonds on them. The people become the surety on the bonds, or the "pledge". The asset bonded (surety) is the labor of the people which is payable as some undetermined future date. Thus, the people become the "utility" for the "transmission" of energy."
Read the full article if you're in the mood to be spooked.
Big Brother Theory & The US Economy
Those of us who are still perplexed by, if not simply appalled at, the current market situation might want to revisit such movies as The Matrix (or even something light-hearted like Wall-E), 1984, or series like Prison Break, 24, and all other conspiracy-related documentaries and movies to get a sense of what is really driving wall street, main street, and your very livelihood.
My personal favorite is the Bible.
If you're big on reading long reports, check this out: http://centre.telemanage.ca/links.nsf/articles/E565B5C857585F8385256DF1001A8A77
My personal favorite is the Bible.
My Trading Plan: My Roadmap To Trading A Specific Instrument
Apparently, my posting on my 10-year plan has left some wondering if I know exactly what a trading plan is.
I would like to clarify that the 10-year plan is more a target than a plan. I wouldn't even call it a financial goal (it definitely is not), it's simply putting into exact dollar amount how much I want to achieve in a year of daytrading a specific instrument. It's for me to gauge how much time I'll need to accumulate a specific amount just by daytrading that instrument.
My trading plan is more complicated, and varies depending on what instrument I'm trading.
The one that I used to use for trading the ER2 was described in my previous post here, here, and here .
I would like to clarify that the 10-year plan is more a target than a plan. I wouldn't even call it a financial goal (it definitely is not), it's simply putting into exact dollar amount how much I want to achieve in a year of daytrading a specific instrument. It's for me to gauge how much time I'll need to accumulate a specific amount just by daytrading that instrument.
My trading plan is more complicated, and varies depending on what instrument I'm trading.
The one that I used to use for trading the ER2 was described in my previous post here, here, and here .
Futurecafe's author, Moyo, has done a MUCH better job than me describing and explaining the technicalities of my own trading plan though:
To be a successful trader, one needs to have a plan. “Have a plan” -a lingo that’s thrown out in a lot of trading books and traders education manual. All it really means is to know all that will be done before entering a trade and exiting a trade, as well as analyzing the various scenarios. You need to know what direction you’ll be trading in, what the resistance and supports are, entry and exit points, stop loss, profit target, what do I do if I’m right? What do I do if I’m wrong? What do I do if I made more money than I expect or lose more than expected? All these should be well laid out in your trading plan.
So here’s a model trading plan, based on an actual trade that was placed by a full time trader Jules.
The first thing to do is look at the previous day’s market performance, and the market behavior a couple of days before. This helps you understand a little on the trader psychology. It is important to understand this because theoretically price action in the market is a reflection of what the overall consensus on what buyers and sellers agree the price should be in a particular time frame. Our trader Jules states
“Knowing the whys gives me a better sense of whether a trend will last. Knowing the whys these days tells me whether YESTERDAY's trend will last (nowadays, you just can't think beyond 1 day's trend), and who (bulls or bears) will be the jittery one today should price fail to hit a support or resistance.
In a climate where no one knows for sure where the market is heading, and where most players are opportunists taking a ride hopefully on the right side, what we are all playing is just FEAR. What I have learnt so far about an uptrend is that it is motivated by HOPE and GREED and a downtrend is fueled by FEAR. But these days, a decidedly strong upward move could be one that's driven by fear too -frightened bears covering.
As far as ER2 is concerned, you seldom see ranging sessions these days. They are either strong trending days or CHAOTIC sessions that give you fake breakouts and NO PATTERNS. These are all signs of extreme sentiments to me. Everyone's jumping in when they see an opportunity, and fleeing when it looks like the party is going to be over sooner than they thought.”
She has pointed the two major emotional states that produce price action in the market i.e. fear and greed. Human emotions tend to move us to take certain decisions, both emotions cause people to either buy or sell. Take for example a situation where an economic report suggests a weakening economy, fear drives people to buy into the “safe havens” i.e. metals, and treasuries, and may also cause them to sell equities and currency. Fear causes people to exit a trade at the wrong time, an example is a situation where one enters a trade and the price begins to fall, fear may cause a person to sell out of that trade at a resistance point, which if they had waited, the trend may have reversed and the loss would be much less. The same and reverse is true for greed, people hold on to trades much longer that they should because of greed and they end up loosing most of their gains.
The 30 min chart is a good time frame to seek out major supports and resistance points for a day trade, this is because most day trades don’t last more than 4 min, so with a 30 min trade you have a “birds eye view” of the price action prior to the time you’ll be making your trade.
Jules states “first, I look for the lines that I think are the ones that the bears and the bulls will be hoping to see breached. And if these lines are not hit, you'll get a trend in the first (sometimes longer, maybe till 11am) hour of the trading session (On some days, I simply can't find a line that I can work with and that's usually when there's nothing much happening in a market that's going nowhere in the first place).”
It is important to know that the market comprises buyers and sellers - and back to our understanding of price action: buyers and sellers all watch for the same support and resistance points in order to have a slight understanding of the overall market psychology.
Resistance points is a psychological price point at which buyers in the market will refuse to bid the price higher and a support point is a psychological price point at which sellers in the market will refuse to sell lower. If a price breaks any of these psychological points for a considerable amount of time (this varies on your trading time frame), it signals that the consensus in the market has shifted and there’s either a trend reversal of a trend continuation. Take for example on the chart above we see the 707 price point has proven to be a pretty strong support, if the ER traded below 707 for 5 mins, one can go ahead and enter a short position in the ER because it suggests that the price will be heading lower
*It is not this simple, but it suggests the idea behind supports and resistances.
In the above chart we see a huge spike in price on the 8th of Sept and a huge fall the very next day. In a bid to understand the market psychology, Jules ask “was that just profit taking, or frantic offloading (after all, and I'm referring to just ER2, yesterday's session failed to reach the high of Monday's session, and this is not exactly the sign of a healthy uptrend)? If it's the former, will price continue its upward move following Monday's gain?”
She has pointed out an important sign of an uptrend, higher highs, this tells one that the market feels the price will continue to go up and people feel comfortable with paying more.
In further analysis:
“At this point, I take a look at Monday's price movement: Not at all bullish. The gains were from the gap; After that was DOWN almost all the way, followed by bears taking profit and covering (maybe even some new buying??) in the later part of the day. So, now, I really have no reason to think that the market is optimistic.”
I look for the first resistance that I think would discourage the bulls if it's not broken. That would be the support from Monday's session 722.35.
Then I look for the first support that I think would send the bears covering if it's not breached; Yesterday's low 707.
As far as I'm concerned, I don't care about all the other support and resistance between them. By a certain time, if either one of them has been tested but not breached, that will give me a rough idea of who's going to be running for cover.
On some days, the lines are not tested at all before market opens. That's when I don't get an entry pre-market. Those are the days I play by ear and SCALP.
Back to today. On my charts there are lines below and above my lilac and brown dotted lines. Those are my DREAM profit-targets. When looking for these lines, I look at where ER2 will likely hit by the end of the trading session. The support and resistance lines that will hold are the ones that have never been tested before or tested just once or twice. I look for those lines. But if they are too near (ER2's range is hardly less than 10 points per day), I look for the next line above when I'm looking for resistance, and the next line below when I'm looking for support.
After all the analysis has been done, here’s her conclusive thoughts before going into a trade “For today, I'm bearish. So I'll be expecting ER2 to test 722. If it does, and test it several times before 830, I'll enter short and set my stop loss a few ticks above 722. My profit target will be 712 (Sep 4's low, which I think is likely to be where it will pause before making the next move). That's a 10 point move. If I get in with 2 contracts, I'll let my 2nd one run and set my profit target at 707 (yesterday's low).”
This highlights a good trading plan that can be followed and modified to suit your style and your personality. The advantages of having a plan are numerous. We have acknowledged the fact that emotions come into play when a trade is in progress, but with a plan one has thought through the process, and would be following the plan as opposed to having emotions rule the trade. See more analysis on http://juzjules.blogspot.com
Thank You, Virus & Nightmares!
Still can't believe I slept for almost 72 hours, getting up for 15 minutes to half hour maybe twice or three times just to type, get a sip of water and hot chocolate, and a warm bath.
Virus is good for me!! LOL!!!
And for the first time, no doctors are involved.
Only one nightmare after another.
Let me count: I
1. Was trapped in a casket screaming my lungs out for help,
2. Fell over a ferry (ultimate nightmare!!),
3. Got jilted (more like a prophesy),
4. Plunged from a skyscraper,
5. (this one's bizarre) Was Houdini all chained up and trapped in a carton that's dropped into the sea and I had no idea how to get out!! (I've gotta stopped watching the History channel and all documentaries on disasters)
I woke up in cold sweat each time, and am beginning to suspect that it's the sweating that purged all the toxin....
Which got me thinking - had the first nightmare been about my entire account being wiped out, I would have had sprung back to life immediately to trade Friday's session!
Virus is good for me!! LOL!!!
And for the first time, no doctors are involved.
Only one nightmare after another.
Let me count: I
1. Was trapped in a casket screaming my lungs out for help,
2. Fell over a ferry (ultimate nightmare!!),
3. Got jilted (more like a prophesy),
4. Plunged from a skyscraper,
5. (this one's bizarre) Was Houdini all chained up and trapped in a carton that's dropped into the sea and I had no idea how to get out!! (I've gotta stopped watching the History channel and all documentaries on disasters)
I woke up in cold sweat each time, and am beginning to suspect that it's the sweating that purged all the toxin....
Which got me thinking - had the first nightmare been about my entire account being wiped out, I would have had sprung back to life immediately to trade Friday's session!
Sunday, September 21, 2008
My 10-Year Plan
Year 1
2 contracts ES or 1 contract ER2
10 Points a day
Trading Window: 7am EST - 9am EST, 10am EST - 12pm EST, 2pm EST - 4pm EST
$1000/day
$5000/week
$20,000/month
$200,000/ year
$100,000 for D
$100,000 for me
Swing trade other e mini futures that are trending
Year 2
4 contracts ES or 2 contracts ER2
20 Points a day
Trading Window: 7am EST - 9am EST, 10am EST - 12pm EST, 2pm EST - 4pm EST
$2000/day
$10,000/week
$40,000/ month
$400,000/year
$200,000 for D
$200,000 for me
Swing trade other e mini futures that are trending
Year 3
4 contracts ES or 2 contracts ER2
20 Points a day
Trading Window: 7am EST - 9am EST, 10am EST - 12pm EST, 2pm EST - 4pm EST
$2000/day
$10,000/week
$40,000/ month
$400,000/year
$200,000 for D
$200,000 for me
Swing trade other e mini futures that are trending
Year 4
4 contracts ES or 2 contracts ER2
40 Points a day
Trading Window: 7am EST - 9am EST, 10am EST - 12pm EST, 2pm EST - 4pm EST
$4000/day
$20,000/week
$80,000/ month
$800,000/year
$400,000 for D
$400,000 for me
Swing trade other e mini futures that are trending
Year 5
Find a job in Hong Kong, find a place to live.
Continue trading 10am EST - 12pm EST window
Swing trade e-mini futures that are trending
Start writing books on 1)my trading journey and on 2) empowering women to find happiness in being alone
Year 6
Visit Spain, Italy, Greece and Israel
Find a career in Hong Kong
Continue trading - focusing on swing trading
Continue to write
Year 7
Continue working in Hong Kong
Continue trading
Continue to write
Year 8
Continue working in Hong Kong
Continue trading
Continue to write
Year 9
Continue working in Hong Kong
Continue trading
Continue to write
Year 10
Continue working in Hong Kong
Continue trading
Continue to write
Year 11 - 47 years old
Retire from work
Continue trading
Look for a quiet city to live permanently
Focus on writing
RULES
NEVER trade more than 4 contracts of ES, or 2 contracts of ER2 per trade
NEVER trade against the trend in swing trading
NEVER set up a business
NEVER love
NEVER teach
2 contracts ES or 1 contract ER2
10 Points a day
Trading Window: 7am EST - 9am EST, 10am EST - 12pm EST, 2pm EST - 4pm EST
$1000/day
$5000/week
$20,000/month
$200,000/ year
$100,000 for D
$100,000 for me
Swing trade other e mini futures that are trending
Year 2
4 contracts ES or 2 contracts ER2
20 Points a day
Trading Window: 7am EST - 9am EST, 10am EST - 12pm EST, 2pm EST - 4pm EST
$2000/day
$10,000/week
$40,000/ month
$400,000/year
$200,000 for D
$200,000 for me
Swing trade other e mini futures that are trending
Year 3
4 contracts ES or 2 contracts ER2
20 Points a day
Trading Window: 7am EST - 9am EST, 10am EST - 12pm EST, 2pm EST - 4pm EST
$2000/day
$10,000/week
$40,000/ month
$400,000/year
$200,000 for D
$200,000 for me
Swing trade other e mini futures that are trending
Year 4
4 contracts ES or 2 contracts ER2
40 Points a day
Trading Window: 7am EST - 9am EST, 10am EST - 12pm EST, 2pm EST - 4pm EST
$4000/day
$20,000/week
$80,000/ month
$800,000/year
$400,000 for D
$400,000 for me
Swing trade other e mini futures that are trending
Year 5
Find a job in Hong Kong, find a place to live.
Continue trading 10am EST - 12pm EST window
Swing trade e-mini futures that are trending
Start writing books on 1)my trading journey and on 2) empowering women to find happiness in being alone
Year 6
Visit Spain, Italy, Greece and Israel
Find a career in Hong Kong
Continue trading - focusing on swing trading
Continue to write
Year 7
Continue working in Hong Kong
Continue trading
Continue to write
Year 8
Continue working in Hong Kong
Continue trading
Continue to write
Year 9
Continue working in Hong Kong
Continue trading
Continue to write
Year 10
Continue working in Hong Kong
Continue trading
Continue to write
Year 11 - 47 years old
Retire from work
Continue trading
Look for a quiet city to live permanently
Focus on writing
RULES
NEVER trade more than 4 contracts of ES, or 2 contracts of ER2 per trade
NEVER trade against the trend in swing trading
NEVER set up a business
NEVER love
NEVER teach
Saturday, September 20, 2008
15 years
15 years of friendship
15 years of mistrust
15 years of fights
15 years of spite
15 years of lies
15 years of false hope that all will ultimately be alright
15 years of dream of happily ever after
15 years of one traumatic realization after another
15 years of twisted love
15 years of turning each other's world upside down
15 years of putting up with each other's cruel criticism
15 years of tears
15 years of wounds unhealed
1 life taken
3 lives forever ruined
15 years of snarls
And 1 divorce to make everything alright again
15 years of mistrust
15 years of fights
15 years of spite
15 years of lies
15 years of false hope that all will ultimately be alright
15 years of dream of happily ever after
15 years of one traumatic realization after another
15 years of twisted love
15 years of turning each other's world upside down
15 years of putting up with each other's cruel criticism
15 years of tears
15 years of wounds unhealed
1 life taken
3 lives forever ruined
15 years of snarls
And 1 divorce to make everything alright again
Friday, September 19, 2008
Lovesick
It's been more than a week now that I've stopped doing any kind of premarket analysis. The market sickens me - literally. People say it's not uncommon to feel a little out of sorts when you fall in love. Could it be that I'm in love with the crazy market???
I have been fighting aching muscles and bones, increasingly bad eyesight, and a crazily small appetite. Seabloke's 5-year old twins eat more than me! To make things worse, I'm throwing up whatever scraps I'm consuming. I have to lie down to not feel nauseous - which means I'll probably have to trade in bed if I want to trade tonight.
And I DO want to trade tonight. I'm missing out on all the actions in a market that has gone totally berserk!
I must have slept for more than 16 hours yesterday...and the only dream I had - a really really long one - was a chart with a head and shoulder and a darn brilliant strategy that I just can't remember now! %@#&*$!!!!!!!!!
Ok, this is as far as I can go on sitting...time to hit the bed again (this is not making any sense..I've been awake for barely 2 hours??).
I won't be surprise if DOW is up by 500 by the time I get up for market open (if I DO get up...I'm starting to feel a little nervous about shutting my eyes now...HOW COULD I GET A VIRAL ATTACK IF I DON'T SEE ANYONE EXCEPT D WHO'S TOTALLY HEALTHY??). Aferall, we have the FEDs out there saving the world, haven't we?
Did I ever mention that I sleep very little coz I think sleeping is a total waste of time, and mostly coz I'm afraid to sleep? Sleeping is like being temporarily DEAD. And depending on my mood, the first thing I say to myself every morning when I wake up is either "thank God, I'm alive", or "WHY AM I STILL ALIVE???!!" .
...........
I have been fighting aching muscles and bones, increasingly bad eyesight, and a crazily small appetite. Seabloke's 5-year old twins eat more than me! To make things worse, I'm throwing up whatever scraps I'm consuming. I have to lie down to not feel nauseous - which means I'll probably have to trade in bed if I want to trade tonight.
And I DO want to trade tonight. I'm missing out on all the actions in a market that has gone totally berserk!
I must have slept for more than 16 hours yesterday...and the only dream I had - a really really long one - was a chart with a head and shoulder and a darn brilliant strategy that I just can't remember now! %@#&*$!!!!!!!!!
Ok, this is as far as I can go on sitting...time to hit the bed again (this is not making any sense..I've been awake for barely 2 hours??).
I won't be surprise if DOW is up by 500 by the time I get up for market open (if I DO get up...I'm starting to feel a little nervous about shutting my eyes now...HOW COULD I GET A VIRAL ATTACK IF I DON'T SEE ANYONE EXCEPT D WHO'S TOTALLY HEALTHY??). Aferall, we have the FEDs out there saving the world, haven't we?
Did I ever mention that I sleep very little coz I think sleeping is a total waste of time, and mostly coz I'm afraid to sleep? Sleeping is like being temporarily DEAD. And depending on my mood, the first thing I say to myself every morning when I wake up is either "thank God, I'm alive", or "WHY AM I STILL ALIVE???!!" .
...........
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Down
Not the market, just me.
Been fighting the stupid virus for a whole week.
It won.
I can barely type.
No trading today.
Been fighting the stupid virus for a whole week.
It won.
I can barely type.
No trading today.
ES Trades 9/17 (Part 2)
+1.75 + 3.5
Profit: 5.25 Points
I'm not cut out to be a machine.
In fact, I'm starting to wonder if I'm cut out to be a trader.
Each time after I hit "transmit" in a real trade, my heart would start pumping so fast I'd feel like I could pass out anytime.
I suppose that's what makes trading addictive. For me.
Explains why I hit "bid", when I meant to cover, in simulated trading earlier - paper trading has a way of removing the most important element in trading...
Ok, no more philosophical mumbo jumbo - in a nutshell, I figure that I'm not going to get any better or any worse if i don't start putting money back on the line.
After all, it's psychology that makes or breaks a trader.
Now I'm really starting to screw my own mind.
If my heart can't stop racing and my hands won't stop shaking long after I close a winning position, what does that make me??
Me being me, I'm going to have to just ignore what experts have to say about trading: that it's supposed to be BORING.
I'm human!
For now.
I still much prefer to be a machine!
Lunch time.
Time for a nice, warm bath for me.
Will switch to 5-min chart after 2pm EST if I can stay awake til then (it's now 12:15 am here).
And definitely switching to limit order if I can (just couldn't do it during sessions before lunch...D's a been telling me how easy it is to put in limit orders...maybe I'm slow on the keyboard, or maybe I just couldn't focus on 2 things at one time...given a choice, I'd rather focus on that big move that ES is going to make...).
In fact, I'm starting to wonder if I'm cut out to be a trader.
Each time after I hit "transmit" in a real trade, my heart would start pumping so fast I'd feel like I could pass out anytime.
I suppose that's what makes trading addictive. For me.
Explains why I hit "bid", when I meant to cover, in simulated trading earlier - paper trading has a way of removing the most important element in trading...
Ok, no more philosophical mumbo jumbo - in a nutshell, I figure that I'm not going to get any better or any worse if i don't start putting money back on the line.
After all, it's psychology that makes or breaks a trader.
Now I'm really starting to screw my own mind.
If my heart can't stop racing and my hands won't stop shaking long after I close a winning position, what does that make me??
Me being me, I'm going to have to just ignore what experts have to say about trading: that it's supposed to be BORING.
I'm human!
For now.
I still much prefer to be a machine!
Lunch time.
Time for a nice, warm bath for me.
Will switch to 5-min chart after 2pm EST if I can stay awake til then (it's now 12:15 am here).
And definitely switching to limit order if I can (just couldn't do it during sessions before lunch...D's a been telling me how easy it is to put in limit orders...maybe I'm slow on the keyboard, or maybe I just couldn't focus on 2 things at one time...given a choice, I'd rather focus on that big move that ES is going to make...).
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
ES Trade (Real) 9/17
Simulated:
"Profit": 3.25 Points
2nd short entry was a mistake - hit the wrong button....
Real Deal:
Profit: 1.75 Points
I'm done paper trading. Patience has never really been one of my virtues.
Crude oil inventory out in a minute.
Smoke break!!
"Profit": 3.25 Points
2nd short entry was a mistake - hit the wrong button....
Real Deal:
Profit: 1.75 Points
I'm done paper trading. Patience has never really been one of my virtues.
Crude oil inventory out in a minute.
Smoke break!!
YM (Simulated) Trades 9/16
Total: +24 Points
Definitely some chemistry here, but the 5-figure numbers are making me see stars.
YM's moves are less forgiving than ES, but not as crazy as ER2.
I miss the crazy ER2. It's still the best instrument I've traded.
This is like finding a mate all over again.
3 more days to go and I have to settle on something that I feel comfortable trading.
Not intending to continue paper trading next week.
Will see what comes up tomorrow.
YM's moves are less forgiving than ES, but not as crazy as ER2.
I miss the crazy ER2. It's still the best instrument I've traded.
This is like finding a mate all over again.
3 more days to go and I have to settle on something that I feel comfortable trading.
Not intending to continue paper trading next week.
Will see what comes up tomorrow.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Seabloke
Seabloke is bothered that she's no longer mentioned on my blog, which makes me realize that I've not seen my little sister for a while now.
Since I quit my job in Sep last year (has it been a year already? Jeez...), Seabloke and I had had numerous breakfast sessions together. After I picked up smoking again 6 months ago after having been a non-smoker for 5.5 years, I've enjoyed breakfast with her tremendously (no more second-hand smoke! :-D ).
But ever since she went back to work, and ever since gas shot through the roof, we've hardly met up.
Having been a tad anti-social all my life, Seabloke has been the one and only person who knows the darkest of my secrets, which includes how much I weighed when I was a fat teenager.
She's the only one who truly knows how much I hate family gatherings and gatherings of any sort, and how much I love being left totally alone when I'm deep in thoughts.
Having been a victim of so many of my pranks, I'm surprise she didn't grow up hating me LOL
Seabloke is the kind of woman you don't want to offend. She scares road bullies shitless (the story that I enjoyed the most was when she strolled to the trunk to get her baseball bat after a rogue driver crossed her path and hurled profanities at her...the coward sprint back into his car after apologizing profusely), and doesn't hesitate to speak her mind in any situation. Knowing martial arts helps :-D
But Seabloke as a sister is the best thing that ever happened to me. She was the guinea pig in many of my stupid experiments which landed her in hospital once, and unnecessary trouble on numerous occasions, and she's never been mad with me. We had fun most times though. The silliest of all the things I've made her do is to tickle a guard that was supposed to stand absolutely still in front of our president's residence. And she did it. The guard didn't even sneeze. Kudos to them.
Seabloke grew up learning how to defend herself (I shan't take credit for that), and although she's really tiny, she's made many boys and men tear (Seabloke somehow always managed to get herself into fights...). And whenever we were out shopping, she'd be the one carrying everything, and would give me a dirty look whenever I volunteered to give her a hand. She makes me feel like I'm the little sister, a very lucky one :-)
Seabloke just text to ask a strange question (typical of Seabloke): It suddenly occured to me - we cannot die as free-thinkers can we?? Whether you're buried or cremated, you're put somewhere in a church or a temple. I cannot die a free-thinker??
I replied that we can put her on a boat all covered with flowers and row her out into the ocean, or have her ashes sprinkled all over the sea that she loves so much.
Her reply to my reply: So we free-thinkers have to go feed the fish? We cannot be placed somewhere with headstone? Not fair!!
Meet my baby sister - mother of a pair of twins so delicious looking you want to bite them, an ex national coach for our netball team, a professional diver, an ex trainer for a famous country club (Seabloke taught ladies how to behave like ladies, and men to behave like men), and...if I remember correctly, a former commercial investigator!
Does Seabloke ever suffer from identity crisis???
So, how do you like the exposé, Sea?
LOL
Muak!!
Since I quit my job in Sep last year (has it been a year already? Jeez...), Seabloke and I had had numerous breakfast sessions together. After I picked up smoking again 6 months ago after having been a non-smoker for 5.5 years, I've enjoyed breakfast with her tremendously (no more second-hand smoke! :-D ).
But ever since she went back to work, and ever since gas shot through the roof, we've hardly met up.
Having been a tad anti-social all my life, Seabloke has been the one and only person who knows the darkest of my secrets, which includes how much I weighed when I was a fat teenager.
She's the only one who truly knows how much I hate family gatherings and gatherings of any sort, and how much I love being left totally alone when I'm deep in thoughts.
Having been a victim of so many of my pranks, I'm surprise she didn't grow up hating me LOL
Seabloke is the kind of woman you don't want to offend. She scares road bullies shitless (the story that I enjoyed the most was when she strolled to the trunk to get her baseball bat after a rogue driver crossed her path and hurled profanities at her...the coward sprint back into his car after apologizing profusely), and doesn't hesitate to speak her mind in any situation. Knowing martial arts helps :-D
But Seabloke as a sister is the best thing that ever happened to me. She was the guinea pig in many of my stupid experiments which landed her in hospital once, and unnecessary trouble on numerous occasions, and she's never been mad with me. We had fun most times though. The silliest of all the things I've made her do is to tickle a guard that was supposed to stand absolutely still in front of our president's residence. And she did it. The guard didn't even sneeze. Kudos to them.
Seabloke grew up learning how to defend herself (I shan't take credit for that), and although she's really tiny, she's made many boys and men tear (Seabloke somehow always managed to get herself into fights...). And whenever we were out shopping, she'd be the one carrying everything, and would give me a dirty look whenever I volunteered to give her a hand. She makes me feel like I'm the little sister, a very lucky one :-)
Seabloke just text to ask a strange question (typical of Seabloke): It suddenly occured to me - we cannot die as free-thinkers can we?? Whether you're buried or cremated, you're put somewhere in a church or a temple. I cannot die a free-thinker??
I replied that we can put her on a boat all covered with flowers and row her out into the ocean, or have her ashes sprinkled all over the sea that she loves so much.
Her reply to my reply: So we free-thinkers have to go feed the fish? We cannot be placed somewhere with headstone? Not fair!!
Meet my baby sister - mother of a pair of twins so delicious looking you want to bite them, an ex national coach for our netball team, a professional diver, an ex trainer for a famous country club (Seabloke taught ladies how to behave like ladies, and men to behave like men), and...if I remember correctly, a former commercial investigator!
Does Seabloke ever suffer from identity crisis???
So, how do you like the exposé, Sea?
LOL
Muak!!
DOW on Mar 16 07, Jan 22 08 & Sep 5 08
I was looking at Dow's daily chart earlier today- and took an interest in those candles with really really tiny bodies and ultra long lower shadows.
I actually started by just staring at Sep 5th 08's hammer, and the huge bullish candle that followed -reaction to the 2 FMs' bailout.
Other similar looking candles are found on Mar 16 2007 and Jan 22 2008.
These are what the 3 have in common: 1) they were breaching or very near a key support; and 2) they became hammers after the Fed did something after market closed for the week - and for 22 Jan 08, for a public holiday on Monday as well. For both Mar 16 07 and Jan 22 2008, the NYSE had put in trading curbs to prevent the market from plunging.
Below are articles containing details on the intervention in Mar 07 and Jan 08:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/16/markets/markets_1200/index.htm
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/23/business/23stox.html?scp=126&sq=&st=nyt
I actually started by just staring at Sep 5th 08's hammer, and the huge bullish candle that followed -reaction to the 2 FMs' bailout.
Other similar looking candles are found on Mar 16 2007 and Jan 22 2008.
These are what the 3 have in common: 1) they were breaching or very near a key support; and 2) they became hammers after the Fed did something after market closed for the week - and for 22 Jan 08, for a public holiday on Monday as well. For both Mar 16 07 and Jan 22 2008, the NYSE had put in trading curbs to prevent the market from plunging.
Below are articles containing details on the intervention in Mar 07 and Jan 08:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/16/markets/markets_1200/index.htm
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/23/business/23stox.html?scp=126&sq=&st=nyt
Makes me wonder: why the repeated attempts at giving the market a soft-landing when each before had resulted in a plunge after the market failed to sustain a rally? Why wasn't the market given a chance to correct itself so it can grow healthily?
Agenda got in the way perhaps.
In any case, I don't want to be bothered about what's good and what's bad for the economy and the market. My focus is on doing what's right to preserve my capital.
So, whenever the market approaches a support that's not been tested, I'm going to wait for 2 closes on 2 bearish candles below the support before I put in a short entry. That's if I intend to hold a trade overnight.
But since I scalp most of the time, I'll definitely make an effort to stop reading too much into what the market and the Feds wants or plans to do. They can do whatever they want inter-day or inter-week, I'll just trade the movements within the day.
Talking about intervention, one wonders if anything's going to be done this time to prevent the market from plunging after yesterday's session (since it's now put a hole through Sep 5th's support)...or if the market's going to just bounce off support - without the Fed having to take drastic measures to rescue it - like it did on Mar 11 08 and July 15 08 (in red shaded boxes on chart above - where the lows are not hammers).
If market's unsure, we are likely to trade within a narrow range after market opens today.
Since I'm paper trading this week, I'm going to take the chance to explore something else.
ES has been a real pain so far. Whenever I meant to BUY, I'll have to SELL, and vice-versa, and then I'll find myself on the right side of the market.
It's utterly unnatural, and I would hate to have to do this on a long-term basis.
Will be checking out YM today and see if we click.
ES (Simulated) Trade 9/15 (Part 2)
1 short entry after 12pmEST : +3 Points
Total for the day: +9.5 Points
For a long time now, I've not traded the after-lunch session. Went in after seeing a familiar pattern (3 Buddha tops) on the 5-min chart. Sat through a retracement of 2 points, and had to resist the urge to run (which I'm used to doing when trading the ER2). With ES, you just have to give it a little more time to work....
ES is definitely more testing than ER2. For most of my entries, I had to force myself to sit tight until I see a reason to quit.
Perhaps 1min isn't the best time-frame to use for scalping ES, even in the very first part of the trading session. Too much noise. Difficult to let profits run (even when it's simulated, I can't help but take profits too early).
1 min chart is definitely a pain to look at now, but because all its resistance and support lines still hold, it's difficult to discard it.
It's starting from scratch: finding the right time-frames, tunning in to its rhythm, profiling the players, etc, finding the average daily range (unlike ER2's 20 - 30 points, ES ranges from 10 to 50 - as in, you see quite a number of 10s, a number of 20s and 30s, and now and then, a 50).
Anyway, I'm calling it a day. I have my "profits" and I'm not going to give it back to the market. Netting a daily profit is my goal, and if I don't do in simulation exactly what I would do in a real trade, then this whole exercise would have been a total waste of time.
I hate ICE for taking ER2!!
ES is definitely more testing than ER2. For most of my entries, I had to force myself to sit tight until I see a reason to quit.
Perhaps 1min isn't the best time-frame to use for scalping ES, even in the very first part of the trading session. Too much noise. Difficult to let profits run (even when it's simulated, I can't help but take profits too early).
1 min chart is definitely a pain to look at now, but because all its resistance and support lines still hold, it's difficult to discard it.
It's starting from scratch: finding the right time-frames, tunning in to its rhythm, profiling the players, etc, finding the average daily range (unlike ER2's 20 - 30 points, ES ranges from 10 to 50 - as in, you see quite a number of 10s, a number of 20s and 30s, and now and then, a 50).
Anyway, I'm calling it a day. I have my "profits" and I'm not going to give it back to the market. Netting a daily profit is my goal, and if I don't do in simulation exactly what I would do in a real trade, then this whole exercise would have been a total waste of time.
I hate ICE for taking ER2!!
ES (Simulated) Trades 9/15
-1 +2 -1 -3.5 +3.5 -3.25 +1.25 +5 +0.75 +2.5
Total: +6.5 Points
10 trades and +6.5 later, and I'm still not any wiser.
How do I even begin to describe ES?
If ER2 is a maniac, ES is just unpredictable.
I much prefer a maniac!
How do I even begin to describe ES?
If ER2 is a maniac, ES is just unpredictable.
I much prefer a maniac!
Monday, September 15, 2008
ES (Simulated) Trade 9/15
D just called to say that BOA has bought MER (which is supposed to be good news), but LEH is rumored to be folding up (very bad news), and that something bad is happening to AIG, and then asked if I've read any of these on the news.
I replied that I haven't, because I was busy trading and making money (simulated trading).
I actually longed ES. It's so difficult for me to long anything that cutting losses on long entries is something I do with great ease. Hence, the risk I take on long trades is usually extremely small.
What happened was that when I pulled up my ES 30min chart hours ago, I saw a gap so wide I didn't bother counting the points or finding out why it gapped. I stared at it as it continued to go even further south after retracing almost to the point where it opened, while listening to Bones & Skulls stories on You-tube the whole time.
Then at 11pm EST, a hammer appeared, followed by an inside bar.
I replied that I haven't, because I was busy trading and making money (simulated trading).
I actually longed ES. It's so difficult for me to long anything that cutting losses on long entries is something I do with great ease. Hence, the risk I take on long trades is usually extremely small.
What happened was that when I pulled up my ES 30min chart hours ago, I saw a gap so wide I didn't bother counting the points or finding out why it gapped. I stared at it as it continued to go even further south after retracing almost to the point where it opened, while listening to Bones & Skulls stories on You-tube the whole time.
Then at 11pm EST, a hammer appeared, followed by an inside bar.
ES 30min
I entered long on the candle after the inside bar, when ES went above the high of the inside bar:
Entry @ 1215
Stop Loss @ 1210 (a level that's 0.7 points below the low of the hammer)
Profit Target @ 1248
Entry @ 1215
Stop Loss @ 1210 (a level that's 0.7 points below the low of the hammer)
Profit Target @ 1248
Trade's set up and I'm earning 4 points now. I asked myself if I would have taken the trade if it were a real-money trade. I would, but my profit target will not be 1248. There's resistance at 1221, and given that ES went down further after gapping down, there's a likelihood that the gap will not be faded. What's going to happen instead is that 1221 resistance will hold, and ES will trade below that level. If that's the case, we'll be looking at a range of 20 points for the day, since 1200 is THE support for 2 months now?
So I have 3 scenarios to work with:
1. ES breaks above 1221, then 1234, then 1248.6 to hit 1262 (about the highest ES will go today, in my view)
2. ES breaks below support of 1200 (I'll have champagne ready when that happens)
3. ES trades within a narrow range between 1200 and 1221 (possible, if the market's as confused as I am now...)
ES hit 1221 a few seconds ago....
Shall see what happens next.
So I have 3 scenarios to work with:
1. ES breaks above 1221, then 1234, then 1248.6 to hit 1262 (about the highest ES will go today, in my view)
2. ES breaks below support of 1200 (I'll have champagne ready when that happens)
3. ES trades within a narrow range between 1200 and 1221 (possible, if the market's as confused as I am now...)
ES hit 1221 a few seconds ago....
Shall see what happens next.
Do We Need The Truth To Trade?
I spent my entire weekend buried in everything US: conspiracies, debts, boom and bust cycles, GDP, budget deficit, where the bulk of the money is spent, her grand infrastructures, her rise to power, who her creditors are, the price of oil since 1940s (yearly average, adjusted for inflation) and how DOW reacted to each episode of rise and fall in oil etc.
I must have watched at least a dozen documentaries on the conspiracy theory in the past, and over the weekend, I watched 2 more.
The rest of the time I spent watching movies on US gangsters, heroes, and ROBOTS.
So, what led me back on the "conspiracy" track?
Moyo's post.
But after 2 days of digging, I found myself right back at where I started: completely LOST.
Which got me thinking: why should I be bothered about the economy bit anyway? So what if the US govt owes over 9 trillion (53 trillion if you take into account the amount they probably will not be able to pay to the baby boomers....), and nobody wants to buy their notes and bills anymore?
In the absence of better alternatives than US equities, and for as long as US is able to negotiate and engineer her way out of all her mess, the market will continue its 200-year upward trend.
Don't ask me where the money comes from when the number of unemployed kept rising, and when people's homes kept getting seized coz they haven't the money to service their mortgage.
What I know is this: people are STILL BUYING, and COUNTRIES are buying!
To make my life easier, I'm just going to trade according to what I see. I don't want to be bothered by what's going on beneath the surface anymore, coz there's just too much going on down there, and I can never know everything. But just suppose that in the impossible scenario that I DO find out everything that I need to know, what's the point if no one else does?? I will still have to wait til I'm NOT swimming against the current, won't I?
I must have watched at least a dozen documentaries on the conspiracy theory in the past, and over the weekend, I watched 2 more.
The rest of the time I spent watching movies on US gangsters, heroes, and ROBOTS.
So, what led me back on the "conspiracy" track?
Moyo's post.
But after 2 days of digging, I found myself right back at where I started: completely LOST.
Which got me thinking: why should I be bothered about the economy bit anyway? So what if the US govt owes over 9 trillion (53 trillion if you take into account the amount they probably will not be able to pay to the baby boomers....), and nobody wants to buy their notes and bills anymore?
In the absence of better alternatives than US equities, and for as long as US is able to negotiate and engineer her way out of all her mess, the market will continue its 200-year upward trend.
Don't ask me where the money comes from when the number of unemployed kept rising, and when people's homes kept getting seized coz they haven't the money to service their mortgage.
What I know is this: people are STILL BUYING, and COUNTRIES are buying!
To make my life easier, I'm just going to trade according to what I see. I don't want to be bothered by what's going on beneath the surface anymore, coz there's just too much going on down there, and I can never know everything. But just suppose that in the impossible scenario that I DO find out everything that I need to know, what's the point if no one else does?? I will still have to wait til I'm NOT swimming against the current, won't I?
Saturday, September 13, 2008
ES (Simulated) Trades 9/12
-0.75 + 1.25 +1.5 +2.5 -1 + 0.75
Total: 4.25 Points
Still not quite getting the rhythm of ES on the 1 min chart. Didn't get a chance to study its pattern before market opened. The number of points in overbought and oversold moves (except for consolidation) seems to be about 8. ES moves really slow. And I tend to enter too early.
Well, the fun part about not trading with money is that you can actually let "profits" run!
I still don't exactly know what I'm doing. Still don't know what lines to draw. But ES stays within channels and that allows me to short even when it's on an uptrend. Buying still doesn't come naturally - I had to force myself to go with the trend.
Well, the fun part about not trading with money is that you can actually let "profits" run!
I still don't exactly know what I'm doing. Still don't know what lines to draw. But ES stays within channels and that allows me to short even when it's on an uptrend. Buying still doesn't come naturally - I had to force myself to go with the trend.
Friday, September 12, 2008
ES, ER2 & Mob Psychology
Solfest once commented that whatever we are trading, we are just trading mob psychology.
I can't agree with him more.
When I compared the 5min chart of ES and that of ER2, I can't really tell one from the other. But when I pulled out their 1min charts, I saw immediately why I sucked at trading the ES.
On the ER2, if it's on an upward move in what is primarily a downtrend and in a market that's not entirely bullish, a correction downwards is either a fierce one, or an extremely shallow one made up of small bodies that consolidate within a tight range. The latter tells me that neither the bulls nor the bears are very sure of their moves. Whenever that happens, you'll see a long bullish candle that breaks out of that range after that series of 3 to 4 tiny candles. The bears are covering in hysteria (coz ER2 is not behaving as expected in a primary downtrend), and the bulls have jumped in to take control, knowing they've won for now. The retracement is hardly 38.2% on such days. On the other hand, if the bulls are not making higher highs, or a high of previous days, ER2 will plunge after stalling. It's a nervous market. You can't draw a channel and expect ER2 to be confined in that channel; you can't draw a support and expect it to bounce off it, or fall through and never come back up. You need to know the lines that will prompt the bulls and the bears to flee, and these lines can be from days before.
The ES is a different mob.
On a 1min chart, ES trades within the boundary of a channel, purposefully and unhurriedly, and lands nicely on a support and bounce back up from there. It makes 50 to 61.8% corrections then resume its trend. It won't turn back down if it's on an uptrend, determined to complete its 5 waves.
D said that I'm like a Formula One driver who wants to drive a Ferrari at 196 mph in normal traffic and expect not to be hindered. I most certainly would wham into something by the time I got onto the road.
Yah, crash and burn.
I can't agree with him more.
When I compared the 5min chart of ES and that of ER2, I can't really tell one from the other. But when I pulled out their 1min charts, I saw immediately why I sucked at trading the ES.
On the ER2, if it's on an upward move in what is primarily a downtrend and in a market that's not entirely bullish, a correction downwards is either a fierce one, or an extremely shallow one made up of small bodies that consolidate within a tight range. The latter tells me that neither the bulls nor the bears are very sure of their moves. Whenever that happens, you'll see a long bullish candle that breaks out of that range after that series of 3 to 4 tiny candles. The bears are covering in hysteria (coz ER2 is not behaving as expected in a primary downtrend), and the bulls have jumped in to take control, knowing they've won for now. The retracement is hardly 38.2% on such days. On the other hand, if the bulls are not making higher highs, or a high of previous days, ER2 will plunge after stalling. It's a nervous market. You can't draw a channel and expect ER2 to be confined in that channel; you can't draw a support and expect it to bounce off it, or fall through and never come back up. You need to know the lines that will prompt the bulls and the bears to flee, and these lines can be from days before.
The ES is a different mob.
On a 1min chart, ES trades within the boundary of a channel, purposefully and unhurriedly, and lands nicely on a support and bounce back up from there. It makes 50 to 61.8% corrections then resume its trend. It won't turn back down if it's on an uptrend, determined to complete its 5 waves.
D said that I'm like a Formula One driver who wants to drive a Ferrari at 196 mph in normal traffic and expect not to be hindered. I most certainly would wham into something by the time I got onto the road.
Yah, crash and burn.
It
Last night, I made up my mind not to dump all my thoughts here, and to focus on getting back on track with my trading.
For the first time in months, I find myself unable to concentrate. There's so much going on in my head that if I don't unload them, there wouldn't be any space for constructive thoughts.
I struggle each and everyday to act, think, and speak like a person with a sound mind. Fighting my dark thoughts is something I have to do almost the instant I take my eyes off my charts.
I have no one I want to share my thoughts and feelings with because I don't want to freak anyone out, and I don't want to put them on the spot. If anyone were to ask me on any given day how I'm doing, I'll say I'm good.
Nobody really wants to know how the others are doing. They just pray that their lives are rosy. No one wants to see their friends in pain. And no one really wants to be told of a problem he/she can't help to resolve.
If someone were to tell me that she is heartbroken, feels hopeless, and that there's no joy in her heart, but lacks nothing that she needs to survive and lives a life of material abundance, I wouldn't know what to say to make her feel better.
For a person like that, is there anything that you can do to help?
No.
If she is in real trouble - hasn't a roof over her head, is constantly battered by her husband, or got mugged and calls me for help - I'll know exactly what to do and will do something immediately.
But if she were to tell me that she feels alone, and that her world is so cold and dark and hopeless that she wants out everyday, I'll be stumped. I'll not know what to say. I can't tell her that there are real sufferings in the world, and that she needs to just compare her life with that of those living in poverty, in fear, and in captivity, to know how blessed she is.
I mean, can anyone define and describe a truly blessed life?
I used to follow a blog written by a girl - a teenager - who lived in Baghdad, Iraq. Her strength and will to live and live with hope and joy everyday captivated me.
She'll blog about how while her mother and aunts were preparing dinner for a family get together one day, that a suicide bomber blew up a car on the street where she lived, and their kitchen windows were hit by shrapnels from the explosion, and yet the family had a totally bracing evening filled with love, joy and care for one another, albeit in total darkness.
Members of this extended family have such a strong bond they walk to one another's home everyday, facing the risk of being blown up by one of the many suicide bombing attempts made daily.
And she'll write about the things she talks about with her good friend, her mother, her aunts and uncles and cousins. Small talks that are so delightfully heartwarming, cheery, full of hope yet so trivial, it would never have occurred to you that the ones sharing them might not even get to see each other again once they parted.
So, I began thinking, when you feel that your days are numbered, when your external world is in chaos and your life in threat daily, when there's a chance that you might not see those who matter to you ever again, do you tend to cherish every single moment you're breathing, all your hopes and dreams, and all the people you care about; and would you tend to be more understanding, more accommodating, more appreciative and more tender in your dealing with those around you?
Would you complain less and laugh more?
Would you wake up every morning thanking God that He's kept the family safe to see another day?
Would you think you're blessed?
I had stumbled upon her blog when I was doing some research for my previous job. It was a job I love, but it calls for a dissociation with life.
7 years on the job and I was sane.
Once out, I find myself losing balance, and yearning for something that I've given up a long time ago. I had reasons for giving it up, and what I need to do now is to believe that I gave it up for good reason.
One can never ask to be loved by a specific someone.
You can't make him, you can't force him, and you definitely can't beg him to.
What you can do is find happiness elsewhere.
But if he happens to be your world, your peace, your only joy - then you're just doomed.
Do I feel better now?
Most definitely.
I should kick myself for not writing earlier.
Now I can go out for a minty, refreshing smoke, and purge all remnants of my weakness and useless longings, and come back and start looking into S&P mid cap (Thank you, again, Solfest, for telling me about EMD) and conquer ES!
I don't care that I have to say it a thousand times to make it come true - I'll say it over and over until I become IT - some thing with no guilt, conscience, shame, longing, hope and fear.
Yes, a war machine.
A brilliant one.
For the first time in months, I find myself unable to concentrate. There's so much going on in my head that if I don't unload them, there wouldn't be any space for constructive thoughts.
I struggle each and everyday to act, think, and speak like a person with a sound mind. Fighting my dark thoughts is something I have to do almost the instant I take my eyes off my charts.
I have no one I want to share my thoughts and feelings with because I don't want to freak anyone out, and I don't want to put them on the spot. If anyone were to ask me on any given day how I'm doing, I'll say I'm good.
Nobody really wants to know how the others are doing. They just pray that their lives are rosy. No one wants to see their friends in pain. And no one really wants to be told of a problem he/she can't help to resolve.
If someone were to tell me that she is heartbroken, feels hopeless, and that there's no joy in her heart, but lacks nothing that she needs to survive and lives a life of material abundance, I wouldn't know what to say to make her feel better.
For a person like that, is there anything that you can do to help?
No.
If she is in real trouble - hasn't a roof over her head, is constantly battered by her husband, or got mugged and calls me for help - I'll know exactly what to do and will do something immediately.
But if she were to tell me that she feels alone, and that her world is so cold and dark and hopeless that she wants out everyday, I'll be stumped. I'll not know what to say. I can't tell her that there are real sufferings in the world, and that she needs to just compare her life with that of those living in poverty, in fear, and in captivity, to know how blessed she is.
I mean, can anyone define and describe a truly blessed life?
I used to follow a blog written by a girl - a teenager - who lived in Baghdad, Iraq. Her strength and will to live and live with hope and joy everyday captivated me.
She'll blog about how while her mother and aunts were preparing dinner for a family get together one day, that a suicide bomber blew up a car on the street where she lived, and their kitchen windows were hit by shrapnels from the explosion, and yet the family had a totally bracing evening filled with love, joy and care for one another, albeit in total darkness.
Members of this extended family have such a strong bond they walk to one another's home everyday, facing the risk of being blown up by one of the many suicide bombing attempts made daily.
And she'll write about the things she talks about with her good friend, her mother, her aunts and uncles and cousins. Small talks that are so delightfully heartwarming, cheery, full of hope yet so trivial, it would never have occurred to you that the ones sharing them might not even get to see each other again once they parted.
So, I began thinking, when you feel that your days are numbered, when your external world is in chaos and your life in threat daily, when there's a chance that you might not see those who matter to you ever again, do you tend to cherish every single moment you're breathing, all your hopes and dreams, and all the people you care about; and would you tend to be more understanding, more accommodating, more appreciative and more tender in your dealing with those around you?
Would you complain less and laugh more?
Would you wake up every morning thanking God that He's kept the family safe to see another day?
Would you think you're blessed?
I had stumbled upon her blog when I was doing some research for my previous job. It was a job I love, but it calls for a dissociation with life.
7 years on the job and I was sane.
Once out, I find myself losing balance, and yearning for something that I've given up a long time ago. I had reasons for giving it up, and what I need to do now is to believe that I gave it up for good reason.
One can never ask to be loved by a specific someone.
You can't make him, you can't force him, and you definitely can't beg him to.
What you can do is find happiness elsewhere.
But if he happens to be your world, your peace, your only joy - then you're just doomed.
Do I feel better now?
Most definitely.
I should kick myself for not writing earlier.
Now I can go out for a minty, refreshing smoke, and purge all remnants of my weakness and useless longings, and come back and start looking into S&P mid cap (Thank you, again, Solfest, for telling me about EMD) and conquer ES!
I don't care that I have to say it a thousand times to make it come true - I'll say it over and over until I become IT - some thing with no guilt, conscience, shame, longing, hope and fear.
Yes, a war machine.
A brilliant one.
ES Virgin Trades 9/11 - Ugly!
Total: -10.5 Points
First day trading the ES, and paid a fee of 10.5 points.
I said I was bullish, and I kept SELLING!
What the hell was I thinking??
ES is a totally different animal. There's no rush, and no fear. Takes its own time going up and down. It's SO TAME!
I gather the players are not as nervous as the players of ER2, and I'm using the wrong strategy for the instrument.
I've not studied its range, and simply couldn't hold on to a correction when I finally decided to long it. My fault for not treating it seriously, thinking that it's tame. PRIDE has no place in trading!
I had no idea what I was doing and I went right in. And I got out when I shouldn't have coz I had zero confidence left by the time I gave 8 points to the market.
My only consolation?
I had no beginner's luck.
That's gotta be good.
Am switching to paper trading from tmrw onwards.
And am going back to my cave to study the darn thing!
Just like I did when I switched to ER2 from GS option.
Will be back, hopefully, by next Friday.
Solfest, see? I DO lose money :-)
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Premarket Analysis 9/11
I'm going to start trading the ES today...I think...
8 more days to trade the ER2 and then it's moving to ICE. Might as well start getting used to something else.
Like I said before, I'm stumped by the S & P chart. The only thing I can visualize on the monthly chart is a really tall mountain (I don't actually see a whole mountain...juz the left side...the other side one can only imagine...). On the daily chart, I see a downtrend. S & P looks like it's going to go down sooner or later, depending on how long the mighty power wants and is able to defer the inevitable.
On the ES 30min, what caught my eyes is the rejection of 1200. After a day that ES fell through a key support and was supposed to plunge, the Fed decided to make history, and all the major indices gapped up! This really spooks me coz they actually succeeded in getting the market to do exactly what they had hoped to see. When you seize 2 financial giants, you would think that that's gotta send the market plunging (or am I the only one who thinks that that's really the worst thing that could happen to a bank?...). But no, the market rallied, just as the government wanted. Ok, the confusion's intentional. It's good to exercise the brain.
So there you go, the market is always right and always does the opposite of what we are programmed to believe.
The indices and futures are all in the red now.
But i'm expecting a bullish trending day for ES. An upward move of one ABC corrective wave after another on the 5min chart.
But before that, as it is happening now, ES (refer to chart below) is likely to continue to drop. Probably to 1221 or even 1219, before bouncing off these supports. This could happen before or after 9:30am EST.
ES 30min
I'm NOT going to be bothered about any news and econ data (initial claims, trade balance, import and export prices - all to be released at 8:30am EST) anymore. If they happen to be REALLY bad, it will probably just send ES into a slightly deeper correction before going up again.
This is my take based on what I see on my chart and what I'm feeling about the market. On any particular day, you can never truly identify the reasons that send the market up or down. What one can know at best about the market is a very general feeling of grim or hope, and trade accordingly.
So why was I bearish yesterday and bullish today? Can market sentiment change overnight? Most certainly. Just look at what happened during the early part of Monday's trading session and what happened the day that followed.
But the fact is, I DON'T know what today's market sentiment is. I said that AT BEST we'll know - I'm just not at my best today.
I'm bullish because the chart tells me that the market didn't want to fall to 1200, and will find every reason now to avoid getting anywhere near there. If ES doesn't fall below 1219 anytime today, THAT's a reason to be bullish.
If ES drops below 1219, I'll be lost.
No, I won't be.
I'll just scalp the 1-min chart. Play by ear. Besides, SELLING is my favorite play still.
8 more days to trade the ER2 and then it's moving to ICE. Might as well start getting used to something else.
Like I said before, I'm stumped by the S & P chart. The only thing I can visualize on the monthly chart is a really tall mountain (I don't actually see a whole mountain...juz the left side...the other side one can only imagine...). On the daily chart, I see a downtrend. S & P looks like it's going to go down sooner or later, depending on how long the mighty power wants and is able to defer the inevitable.
On the ES 30min, what caught my eyes is the rejection of 1200. After a day that ES fell through a key support and was supposed to plunge, the Fed decided to make history, and all the major indices gapped up! This really spooks me coz they actually succeeded in getting the market to do exactly what they had hoped to see. When you seize 2 financial giants, you would think that that's gotta send the market plunging (or am I the only one who thinks that that's really the worst thing that could happen to a bank?...). But no, the market rallied, just as the government wanted. Ok, the confusion's intentional. It's good to exercise the brain.
So there you go, the market is always right and always does the opposite of what we are programmed to believe.
The indices and futures are all in the red now.
But i'm expecting a bullish trending day for ES. An upward move of one ABC corrective wave after another on the 5min chart.
But before that, as it is happening now, ES (refer to chart below) is likely to continue to drop. Probably to 1221 or even 1219, before bouncing off these supports. This could happen before or after 9:30am EST.
ES 30min
I'm NOT going to be bothered about any news and econ data (initial claims, trade balance, import and export prices - all to be released at 8:30am EST) anymore. If they happen to be REALLY bad, it will probably just send ES into a slightly deeper correction before going up again.
This is my take based on what I see on my chart and what I'm feeling about the market. On any particular day, you can never truly identify the reasons that send the market up or down. What one can know at best about the market is a very general feeling of grim or hope, and trade accordingly.
So why was I bearish yesterday and bullish today? Can market sentiment change overnight? Most certainly. Just look at what happened during the early part of Monday's trading session and what happened the day that followed.
But the fact is, I DON'T know what today's market sentiment is. I said that AT BEST we'll know - I'm just not at my best today.
I'm bullish because the chart tells me that the market didn't want to fall to 1200, and will find every reason now to avoid getting anywhere near there. If ES doesn't fall below 1219 anytime today, THAT's a reason to be bullish.
If ES drops below 1219, I'll be lost.
No, I won't be.
I'll just scalp the 1-min chart. Play by ear. Besides, SELLING is my favorite play still.
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