Oil, Long & Wrong & Skating Incident

I'm turning on comments for my heartthrob (HUGH DILLON) lookalike, Long & Wrong

Am not going to be trading for the rest of the week (ok, maybe just 100 - 200 shares of ETFs) anyway...

Comments on skating incident most welcome!

I had a scare today. Lost time and was trapped in a CL trade for what seemed like a century when oil inventory data was released. It was much easier to follow US time during their daylight saving period. For now, 10:30am ET is 11:30pm my time, and I keep losing track of data release time.

To cut a long story short, I was long CL and everything was good, I was making about 200 when all of a sudden, price disappeared from IB's booktrader. I hit "re-centre" and was astounded/appalled/petrified and felt totally screwed when my PnL column showed -500, then straight to -1000, all before I could blink my eyes ONCE. D was in the shower. When he got out, he was quiet. I was quiet. Got out at a place that's 15 cents (1.5 points) lower than my previous target. Price continued to soar a couple of points above my initial target (I was targeting for a 3-point target - where pivot was). But I was just glad I got out unscathed. The point plus profit's a bonus.

D put his ear on my chest, and was beyond amazed to hear NORMAL heartbeat.

Somehow, I'm the calmest when under severe stress. D asked why I hadn't gotten out when price plunged to -500. I replied that so far, I've never been killed by spikes. I die slow deaths.

Anyway, that's why I need my break. I think I've had a scare. My brain just didn't register I guess.

WOLFE

TF 1min

Was just talking with Todd. He pointed out a bearish wolfe on Wed's chart, and I thought it'd be interesting to show just how common wolfe patterns are.

There's another bearish one from yesterday that hasn't touched the pink wolfe target line. I'm now really starting to worry about my long position.

6J Trade 11/4 (Wed) - After Action Review & Paul

6J 15min

While I tend to look left, and right, and left again before I cross the road, I had neglected to check for all overhead resistances before I placed a trade that was seemingly valid at first glance.

That's mistake number 1.

Mistake number 2: removing what was there to protect me in the event that I make mistake number 1.

It's like insisting on driving myself to the hospital after being run over by a truck.

The bigger picture that says no go (unless it's a scalp):

6J 240min

What I had yesterday was a 2% drawdown - in a single trade - on what was set aside for scalping/daytrading.

My comfort level is 0.5% per trade for futures.

On most days, it's actually 0.25%!

So, I'm really not too happy with ME now.

I shall have no ice-cream for the rest of the year.

A very sweet Paul has written some thinkscripts for me, and I'm going to be spending the day playing around with the alerts (if I manage to insert the scripts properly). My hormones are still crazy so I'll likely stay on the sideline, or experiment with more ETFs during the US session.

ES Trades 7/21 - After Action Review

A bad trade through and through :

- The distance of 3rd touch from 2nd touch was much larger than that of 2nd touch from 1st touch, and that was completely ignored (this type of scenario generally invalidates my "3rd Touch" setup, since price, more often than not, will punch right through trendline on 4th touch, after having formed a partial rise on 3rd touch)

- Stop loss was excessively and unnecessarily generous. While a max of 3-point stop would have sufficed to tell me if my setup has been invalidated, I had set it at major support at 940 (that was the original stop, before I moved it up to 942). Reason that I was generous: 1) I was trading JUST 1 contract 2) I was too tired to execute my typical sniper style plan and decided to "swing" (which brings me to mistake number 3 below) my trade for a 4-point profit instead. And since I didn't want to be shaken out before price hit my target, I decided to give the trade LOTS of room to work.

- I had set a profit target of 4 points, and a stop loss (orginal) of 10 points. That's without a doubt a rotten risk-to-reward ratio, even for me. The fact that I took the trade showed just how desperate and stubborn I was.

- I hadn't been generous enough. I should have set my stop at 935 and avoided all the "NOISE". 942 and 940 are absolutely the worst levels to place a stop for a mini-swing trade. Ok, I'm not serious (though I'm dead serious about 942 being a TERRIBLE choice of stop). There is no way I'm taking a trade where I have to risk 14 points to get 4 points.

The heart of the issue: I was unwilling to take a 2.5 to 3-point loss on a day that I had already been stopped out once. I had missed out a good many 6E trades (my "imaginary" trades always hit my targets...one wonders why....), and that frustrates me to the point where I simply REFUSED to shift my focus away from my PROFIT target to managing risk (which should ALWAYS be a trader's primary consideration) instead.

Market-Chasing Week

While last week gave me some hints that my performance is somewhat correlated with the number of hours I spend in front of my screen, this week is proof that staring at charts for more than 16 hours a day is a serious impediment to my trading .

Week in Review:

Monday
A downtrending day where I kept buying in 2 fairly huge bear wedges. Had I taken some time off my screen, I would have had the opportunity to think about my thinking process while trading. Decisions I made would have been much better, especially those related to profit-taking.
Loss: USD 425

Tuesday
Ranging day with upward momentum where I had waited for my setup even though I was at my desk the entire day. I guess non-down days just make me a more patient person.
Profit: USD 225

Wednesday
Ranging day with upward momentum during the Asia & Europe hours. The most notable trade was the one that I chased during the US session, when the momentum has shifted from bullish to bearish, and after I had missed my favorite setup (D's fault! He's a major distraction!)
Profit: USD 262

Thursday
Asia and Europe Session:
PERFECT ranging day - channel was perfectly horizontal. It was supposed to be the best day of the week. I felt so in sync with the market I got cocky and thought I could aim for the sky. On a day that I could apply my scalping skills beautifully, I started it swing trading a position for a 8-point profit instead of taking my usual 1 to 2 point profit in the 6E. Realized my folly after being stopped out for nearly the amount that would have required me to close shop for the day, I went back to scalping. I was in 2 point profit immediately before taking the 2.7 point loss in the first trade. The remaining 4 6E trades were perfect. I have to say they felt EASY. Shows how trading only on my type of day can significantly improve my bottom line. In fact, going forward, I'm going to put size back on on days like this.

US Session:
Uptrending market. Missed the opening bell and my MOST MOST favorite setup. D's fault again!! He got home late, and instead of focusing on the market, I started telling him about my day, and listening to him tell me about his. I missed my signals by mere seconds. Once I miss a signal, I don't chase. So I thought. I ended up not chasing that particular setup, and merely chase any upmove instead. BAD decision. Because I was in trades that I wasn't comfortable with, my execution was CLUMSY and for that I lost POINTS.
Profit: USD 87

Friday
Asia & Europe Session
Ranging day with DOWNWARD momentum. Sat in front of my screen since 7am local time and started CHASING market in wave 4. Terribly stressful session where I saw profits disappeared and became losses. Recovered some at the end of the session.

US Session
DOWN, DOWN , DOWN session. I traded my setup, but simply refused to take profit that was realistic for a down day (I was buying, as usual). Then I refused to give the trade the room it needed to move (I hadn't used the appropriate stop for my signal - it was a day with huge candles and if I choose to trade, I'll simply have to use a wider stop).
Loss: USD 400

6E & ES Trades 6/18 (Thurs) - Crazy Day

Cutting a long story short:

D got home at 930am N.Y. time SHARP. We exchanged stories about our day, and coz of that I missed my favorite setup. I don't know why I did it, but I chased (one of those things I don't normally do), right at the point where ES hit major resistance. Covered at 6 ticks loss. And then I did the unthinkable: clicking more than once on "sell". Realized that immediately and bailed at breakeven. Then I entered long right when ES was moving back up to the same resistance level!! Then I double-click on "sell" AGAIN!!! This time I wasn't so lucky. I simply couldn't hold a short at a place where I won't SELL (it's where both bulls and bears can get trapped). So I covered at 6 ticks loss.

Total disaster.

Recovered 200 of the 300 I lost in the next 2 trades.

Total for the day: + USD 87

What a day.

6E Trades 6/18 (Thurs) - STILL A Scalper

Am just too adventurous for my own good...

Ok, rephrase: GREED DOESN'T PAY!

Was targeting 1.4026 exit, and wasn't willing to place a stop that's wider than my daily loss limit. And, totally ignoring the fact that it's just plain stupid to put a stop just 5 ticks below support (and I thought 5 ticks was generous!!).

Penalty for being stingy & GREEDY (I had at least 2 chances to take USD 200 within 10 mins after entry, and I refused to take it) : USD 340

I most absolutely was NOT happy to be stopped out just 7 ticks before price turned around. Activated my scalping mode and recovered all but USD 75 of my money in 2 scalps.

See, that's the reason why I'll always be an extremely short-term trader. Anything longer than 15 minutes in the market is just WAY TOO LONG for me!!!

Had I insisted on holding for my 8 point profit at all cost, I would have had to risk USD 420, and by now price is not even half way to my 8 point profit - in fact, I would have just earned barely USD 200 (which I would have pocketed in my 10 min scalp...IF i had taken the profit of course).

So, why wouldn't I choose scalping where I would have earned USD 200 +180 +85 = USD 465 today??

No more holding. For the umpteenth time - UH- UH to holding !!!!

Ok, to be fair, had I taken the 200, I'd probably have taken a nap and come back hours later...

I'm not complaining. Today is one of the best trading days I've had. It shows me that I can most definitely manage up to 3 scalps at one go. No more smoke break after each trade. It's not like trading is so stressful.

Is that me brain-washing myself??

After 7 hours of being in the market without a break, I deserve a nicotine fix now.

I'm too thrilled that my day has just begun (according to my PnL)!!

6E Trades 6/17 (Wed)

Blue arrow shows my losing trade; green shows winning

Initial plan was to trade off the Hourly:

Since it's probably going to take hours before I can make a move, I took trades off the 5 min (which is really NOT my favorite timeframe for FX trading) in the meantime.

Nothing much to say for the losing trade except that not very many people wanted to buy at the price I went in at so it was just too bad for me. In time, after many small (ouch, ouch, ouch!!!) losses, I'm sure I'll learn to NOT buy in the middle of a channel just as price's moving down!

Not touching the 5min anymore for the day. Will either take a trade on the hourly or wait for a setup in the ES.

ES 6/15 - After Action Review

On a day that's trending down, I scalp "wave 4"s, which can be either up or down sloping channels. I'll buy towards a MSH (usually the 2nd - can be a lower or higher swing high - the 3rd, if it's a lower swing high than the 2nd, would be a nice H&S for bears).

The mistakes I made yesterday are found in the following list (by no means an exhaustive one) :

1) Scalping during the globex session - price forms miniature legs during the quieter hours, and because of that, I tend to be unwilling to enter at 1 tick above signal, reason being that I don't want to be caught in buying the 2nd MSH (where bears sell, and I become the trapped bull). I tend to buy 1 tick above an outside bar (instead of the inside), which can be 3 or 4 ticks above my signal candle. In scalping, every tick counts. I enter at a lousy price, and that's fine as long as I'm realistic about my exit. Sometimes I get carried away and overstay.

2) Assuming that market's reversing after a significant move down - which causes me to overstay when I buy the 2nd MSH of a wave 4. I get into trouble when I target my exit at a point that's higher than the previous MSH (I don't do that if I assume that what I'm seeing is NOT a truncated wave 5 - but the risk-taker in me tend to see truncated wave 5s....and I had no basis to assume a truncated wave 5 yesterday since it really wasn't a day that bears were desperate to cover).

3) Stop loss was too LOOSE. Even a 6 tick stop is a loose one on a day that I fade a strong trend, let alone a 9 to 10 tick stop.

All in all, I should have stayed away on a down trending day. I could still scalp what I mentioned above, but if I choose to do that, I would do well to heed my inner voice that's always telling me to get out before the bears are done taking profit.

Interestingly, D had sold yesterday (well, he always sells anyway), but always got out too soon, taking barely 3 ticks each time.

When I asked about his setup, he said he would sell when price had touched the upper channel. I told him that's technically not a setup. A setup is one that gives him an edge. If he's selling, his best shots are those where price has broken out of a downward sloping channel - that's because on a day with strong downward momentum, the first 2 or even 3 breakouts are mostly fake breakouts, and bears would take over once bulls stop buying. That means that his best shorts are the ones where price has overshot a trendline (it's where lots of scalpers that buy a breakout find themselves in a market without a follow-through, which will send them covering immediately).

D's best entry yesterday was a few candles after I exited my long. It was the textbook "2nd-Entry" short that I've shown him before (and told him to just trade that setup until he can hold his trades for at least 6 to 8 ticks). The signal candle was beautifully small, so selling 1 tick below would still give him a nice scalp profit of at least 6 ticks.

D used to wonder why I don't sell when I recognize sell signals better than buy signals. I think he finally figured out that I'm playing defence here. Since I know the onset of a PLUNGE, I'm better off buying. I'm not good at reading WHEN selling stops - and since I have a tendency to get carried away, I get caught in selling at a point where market's stop plunging. I find buying better suited to my personality, coz the market's always making an effort to go up. My only problem with buying is that of overstaying, but I rarely get caught in a situation where I get in and the market immediately turns against me.

On the chart above, I have shown only my last 2 entries. The first 2 entries were based on similar premise, except that they were globex-hour trades. After those 2 trades, I had stopped buying once the time was up for a wave 5 down (I was buying a failed wave 5, yes, but wave 5 didn't fail, so I gladly took my loss). In hindsight, I should have just totally stayed away ie. give up all down trending days. But I have a more enterprising spirit than that ie. it will take me a LONG time to learn to be conservative. Only time will tell if insisting on being who I am will pay off.

ES Trades 6/15 (Mon) - Nothing New

Definitely should have waited til at least after 2pm to buy. Impatience got the better of me AGAIN.

Nothing to cry over. Just need to stop being myself.

I'm still NOT going to sell. Not selling is a huge part of my strategy, and I'm not going to change it just because I'm pigheaded enough to keeping buying on a fierce down day.

No chart - there isn't any notes on it (yes, I had forced all my trades).

To all who have asked about my comment section, it's been inactivated. Will turn it back on when I feel less glum. Just don't want to be rude (I don't do anything other than sleep and stare at my charts now, and overlook everything else. Yes I still read emails, just haven't gotten down to responding).

ES 6/12 (Fri) - Notes

Good setups that were passed (daily loss limit hit before start of US session).

Lesson:
Save chips for good setups, especially at end of week, especially after consecutive winning days

No Time For Bad Trades

It's apparent that my best days this week were those where I hadn't the time to sit in front of my screen (staring at my charts) for 12 - 16 hours a day.

When pressed for time, I trade the best setup coz I have no time to nurse bad trades. I take a look at my charts for a few minutes and if within that time I don't see my favorites, I simply walk away. It was "Carrie Week". My friend was my priority.

Actually, I was prepared to take a trading break for the week to spend time with Carrie. However, it turned out that I had a few hours to kill each day while Carrie went out to meet her other friends here. I had used those spare time to go over my charts, and if I didn't see anything I could trade, I simply get dressed earlier and played with Al (didn't want to get stuck in bad trades that I had to nurse - coudn't let my friend wait for me). We usually got home way after the US market had opened, and I would scan the ES 5 min for my favorite setups. I was able to quickly make out what the trend was and where it was likely going. My eyes and mind were simply way, way sharper after being away from the screen for the entire day.

A more detailed review of the week:

Monday - Carrie had arrived in the morning and we were out the whole day. When I sat down in front of my charts for the first time that day, it was slightly before US lunch session. I took 2 trades while Carrie was in the shower. Stopped out on both. After Carrie and D turned in - which was 2 hours later - I recouped all my losses. Breakeven day : + USD 25

Tuesday - Carrie was out in the afternoon, and I took a few 6E trades. Then in the evening, when she was having a chat with D, I took a quick ES trade. Good day. Best day. + USD 487

Wednesday - Carrie went to an island nearby with a friend. I took a few 6E trades, then spent a lot of time sleeping (and didn't feel guilty, coz, hey, I wasn't supposed to be trading anyway). Took just 1 ES trade in the evening coz I had to be up early the following morning. Good day (albeit filled with blunders) +USD 375

Thursday - Spent the whole day with Carrie and saw her off at the airport. Got home shortly before the US session started. D was having a headache and I didn't want to keep him up. So my plan was to go for just 1 good trade and then call it a day. I had to be selective about my only trade for the day. Great day. 1 trade + USD 300

Friday - The first day of the week that I had the ENTIRE DAY to trade. D-day: -USD 575

Nuff said.

Lord Tedders once told me that his best days were those where he spent only a couple of hours in front of his screen. I always remember what he said, but it hasn't stopped me from doing stupid things now and then.

Once in a while, I must sabotage myself.

Maybe I don't love me so much after all.

6E Trades 6/12 (Fri) - Painful Wrap Up

This is me at my most stubborn. Broke all the rules that I could possibly break:

1) Ignored the very pathetic volume, and went in 4 times

2) Blatantly ignored the inner voice that was telling me that I wasn't trading according to my plan (which is to enter only when price has come down to the area highlighted on my chart)

3) Moved my stop for the 2nd trade, and totally removing it for the 3rd and 4th trade (didn't want my stops to be taken out by spikes on a low volume day)

4) Refusing to take a step back to re-evaluate and re-group after 2 consecutive stop-outs

5) Ignored rule number regarding trading the 6E: that I was NOT to expect to have a trade everyday (since I'm only taking LONG position) - especially not on a Friday!!

6) Blowing my daily loss limit (this I have no control over - I simply couldn't get out fast enough for the last losing trade - had I had a choice, I would have bailed at 100 plus loss!)

I am officially calling it a day. Even if I have a setup in the ES, I am going to have to pass.

My only consolation is that I'm still up for the week, and my gains for these 2 weeks is still within the target that D has set for me (mine is 4 times that figure!!! But now's a good time to go with his, else I'll really feel like killing myself).

From now on, I will NOT enter a trade that does not allow me to put in a HARD STOP. That means no trading unless there's VOLUME!

I'll be a better trader next week.

Sea,
I'm not getting out of my cave until July. So, bring me my birthday cake. :-p

6E & ES Trades 6/10 (Wed) - Wrap Up

Total: USD 375

Not a fun day in general. First the morning scare, then the extremely distressing counter-trend longs during the US session.

Not staying up for market reversal (if any!). Visiting Aunt early in the morning before she leaves for JKT.

Thanks to friends & family for having left comments - my apologies to all for not having responded. I will do that tmrw.

Emini-Player: 3-tick is enough to tell me if my setup has been invalidated. I skip anything that takes more than 3-tick, unless the upside is worth my throwing in more chips :-)

6E Trades 6/10 (Wed) - Jumbling Blundering Mishmash Of Longs

Blunder: Traded the ES when I meant to trade the 6E.

Blunder: Hit "buy market" 4 times on the 1st 6E trade. My brain wasn't registering anything my fingers were doing, I gather. When I saw +4 on the DOM, I freaked. I utterly hate the number "4". So I got 1 contract out of the way almost immediately, at 1-tick loss. Kept 3 contracts and removed my hard stop. Price was NOT going up, of course, and the only thing I could do was to focus on keeping calm. Went over the reason that I had entered the trade, and was convinced that the reason was valid. Any signs that market was no longer doing what I thought it would do would have sent me bailing at any cost. 6E is a monster, and loves to plunge. (Still fresh in my mind is the day it took USD 2500 from me in a single trade on a SINGLE contract, coz it just wouldn't stop going down - never seen anything like this ever before - and I froze!)

I eventually got out where I wanted to get out - at trendline resistance. The gain of USD165 felt PRECIOUS....until a setup appeared a few candles later. I decided that since I've had the ultimate fright of the year, nothing else was going to give me a heart attack today. I went long on 2 contracts. Had a hard time getting out. Slippage was terrible. I had to time my exit at market and there was no good time to cover except when market was soaring 5 to 6 ticks in seconds. I had to give up my targeted 1.4090 exit as a result. I wanna cry.

Am taking a break - I need food and sleep, and NICOTINE!!!

Sea,
You're probably the only one that knows my frustration. I do the most unthinkable, impossible things on a REGULAR BASIS (you've lost count, I know) - it's like my brain just decides to take breaks as and when it fancies without giving me any heads-up!! I'm hazardous to all living and non-living things around me! My cave is not adequate in containing me; I need a bunker.

ES Trades 6/4 (Thurs) - Some Discipline, At Long Last

Black arrows indicate the 2 trades I took.

Reason for entering 1st trade was straightforward. I came out from the shower, D said he just sold the ES and got out with 2 ticks. I recalled that ES was supposed to have bottomed temporarily, and asked why he sold. He said there were 2 huge candles up and price looked a little stretched so he faded it. I took a look at his chart, and went right to my workstation. D was nosy, and came over to see if I was going to SELL for a change. My cursor was on "buy market". Then he noticed: it's a bull flag. For me, the reason to take the trade was not just that it was a bull flag. Even if it was, if I don't have a signal candle, I'm not going in. I scalp. Precision matters. I would have bought at close of my signal candle, but I took a few seconds to scan around for anything that I've overlooked (since I've been away from the screen), and immediately gave up 1 point for late entry. Got out at market, took 3 ticks even though market was 5 ticks from my entry price when I hit sell. I'm not surprised - it's crazy pre-market.

Context for 2nd trade:
1) Completion of 3 PushDowns
2) Price pierced 930 support and came back up - that's market's 2nd attempt to reverse to test OR high
3) 2 candles before my entry was a strong bearish candle and following it was what was supposed to be a flag of sort, but the next candle's low didn't even touch the flag's low when it closed. Volume was high on that last strong bearish candle - enough reason for me to trade a bear trap setup.
4) Fib: On all SPY, SPX & ES charts, my setup and signal candles were all sitting on Fib 50 of yesterday's low to today's OR high. I'm putting fib back coz I've found SPY, SPX & ES to be fib friendly (or the other way round, doesn't matter). A hammer on fib 50 after a gap fill is a good enough reason for me to take the trade.

My plan going forward is to drastically reduce the number of trades I make in a day. I'm going to be trading just up to 2 setups. Will increase my contract size to meet my profit target for the WEEK instead. 10 contracts per trade by end this year remains my goal.

Today's actually a day that I should have stayed away. I've always had heart problems and today's been bad. I'm not sure if it's the onset of a panic attack - the palpitations' making me feel really nervous throughout the day, and I was afraid to take a nap. It's silly of course - coz really, that's probably the best way to die : in my sleep.

Been wanting to trade the after 2pm session but my health's been getting in the way and I can no longer stay with my charts for 16 hours. Will be giving up the globex session altogether and focusing on the 930am - 4pm session instead. I've found the after 3:30pm session extremely tradable for my strategy.

ES Trades 6/2 - Wrap UP

A day where too many mistakes were made:

1) The 2 globex- hour trades had given me a 5-tick and 8-tick profits before my stops were hit, which I should have taken, since my stop was not set to take a swing

2) The 1st trade after US market opened was a mess - it wasn't supposed to be taken in the first place. I chased coz I was trapped out. I was trapped out coz I hesitated when I had my signal to enter (in triple pink arrow was where I should have entered).

3) The trade that followed was another chase - and even more unforgiveable coz I hadn't a signal at all!

4) The last trade was the only one today that I can feel happy about : I had both setup and a valid signal, and I exited as planned (which was NOT to hold beyond 2 trend bars, and cover as and when trendline is hit)

Before taking the last trade, I was down USD 325. I have a daily loss limit of USD 400, and what that meant was that I had 3 choices:
i) take the next signal and risk blowing my daily loss limit
ii) enter only on hammers / very small trend bars
iii) call it a day

I learn today that if I don't make good decisions throughout the day, I'll end up having to make extremely difficult ones before the day's over.

ES (Live) Trade 6/1 (Monday) - Wrap Up

Failure to act on good setups (by good I mean FAMILIAR SCALP setup) - that's the worst kind of "fear" as far as I'm concerned.

Was adamant about keeping my USD 250 gain on the day of the week that has historically been REALLY BAD for me - and I got what I asked for. I'm not happy, but I'll live with it - only for today.

I've taken care of the "discipline" part by limiting myself to trading just 2 signals once I see my setups - if I don't pull the trigger on these signals, something's wrong with me.

Am calling it a day.

1 trade and 2 missed opportunities....

%*#*^&*#!!!!!

I'll forgive myself.

I shall sleep well tonight.

A Trading Session Filled With "I Don't Know"s

Me Vs Wallstreet's latest post caught my attention, coz it talked about something D and I can definitely relate to.

During yesterday's trading session, D and I started off trading in opposite directions. I kept buying where he was selling. Soon it became clear that he was going counter-trend at the wrong time.

After 2 consecutive losing trades, he started taking cues from me

At one point, when I entered long on the ES, he went in long on TF.

After his order was filled, he asked if price was really going to go up.

I told him I had no idea.

He got a little flabbergasted. So I had to explain that it all depended on whether enough people were jumping in - if there weren't, we'd just gotta run.

I then asked where his "run point" was.

He had no idea.

I suggested that he scratched his position coz I had entered at a place where it would take him just a few ticks to know if he was right - and he wasn't.

He didn't want to bail. So I said fine, then he'd just have to see if price would come back up to a level where he can cover at a smaller loss, or at breakeven, or even with a little profit.

He asked if price would find support at the level I marked "support".

Again, I said I had no idea.

He gave up.

I pointed out another place that he should cover at a loss of 200, or risk 500 to see if price will bounce.

He asked if the long legged doji after the long bearish candle would halt price (I had told him to run after the completion of the long legged doji).

I said I had no idea.

Most of the time, these dojis don't reverse price on a downtrend, and the best answer I could give him was "I had no idea" coz really, I hadn't the slightest clue if that particular doji would be an exception.

He eventually bailed at loss of 400, right after the close of another long bearish candle that came after the doji.

I waited for the bounce, and got out with 300 gain.

D was disheartened, but I didn't console him (yes, I was mean). I asked on what setup had he entered. He gave me a blank look. Then he said it just looked like price was going up. I asked if he recognized that the small bullish candle he was looking at could very likely turn out to be part of a falling 3 method (completion of the method was right before the doji appeared). Yes, yes, I was nasty.

He asked what gave me the confidence to hold on to my position. I replied that I had entered on a very familiar setup, and knew where I would run. Before price got anywhere close to my stop, I was starting to see bear traps being setup, so I had no reason to run. Had it been the other way round ie. bull traps seen instead, I would be ready to bail before my stop was hit.

With me, it was all about seeing what's unfolding at every step and I just act accordingly.

Go with the flow; keep in mind that the only certainty about the market is that certainty doesn't exist.

The best we can do is to be very selective and trade only setups we recognize (coz we've seen them enough times and had backstudied them), accept that this very particular trade that we're putting on could just turn out to be among the 10, 20 or 30% that don't work out, and bail after the pattern we had entered on has clearly failed.

Right now, I'm printing out all the charts with my favorite setup highlighted, and I'm sticking them up on hard cardboards (I bought a dozen really huge ones) so D can stare at the setup day and night. When he starts to see them in his dreams, he can then start trading real money again. LOL!! Yes, he's volunteered to start paper trading (which he's never done!!).

And he's switching to ES!

And opening an account with Inifinity just to daytrade futures.

GIRL POWER!!!!!

ES Trades 4/29 - FOMC Curse

I want to blame FOMC. I really do. But that won't do me any good. So I'm just going to curse it and turn in.

Generally too slow a market for me. Took 187 in the 1st trade, and returned double of that to the market in the 2nd trade. Then made a little back on my 3rd entry. I had good reasons for all entries (I made sure I had more than 2). The problem was with stops AGAIN. I tightened my stop for the 2nd entry (inside bar or no inside bar, in future, I will keep to my usual stops), and because of that, I started paying attention to my stops instead of using my brain to THINK. I need room to strategize. I would rather scratch my trades while having a safety net to prevent from losing what I want to lose in a day. I had many chances to scratch, but I kept staring at my stop. Stupid.

3rd trade (Long, again) was today's best actually. I scaled down to 2 contracts and put in a 3 point target. D suggested I get out and go for a break. I did, but only after making him stay to look at price soaring in my direction. I'm evil. He feels really bad now coz price went up by more than 3 points. I told him that it wasn't his fault (i'm also a good liar), and that had I been sure (ok, i really wasn't, coz the market's not moving. A stalling market kills me), I would have had turned a deaf ear on him.

D made decent profit on TF (after he told me to get out, and after I said it's ok, nothing will happen before 2pm - and he was kind enough to tell me he shouldn't have doubted me), and thanked me for my commentary throughout the session (I tape my trading sessions).

So now we're both happy that I lost only USD 167, and D made 2 points on a FED day.

I'm not changing my strategy anymore. No more tight stops.

Details of trades (all LONG) are all on chart above.