Jules Is A Mule (Part 3??!)

6E 15min

Yesterday was an interesting day - not just because I gave away 1k in a single trade again - so thought I'll talk about it.

I Shorted the 6E rather early in the morning (my morning and around 8pm NY time) coz, well, I was convinced 6E was going back down to test the spike low (see chart above). As with other days that I refused to think straight, I held on to the trade until I realized I couldn't be sure if price was going to stop going against me before the day ended. And as with all those other days that I was convinced that price would go to a certain place, price eventually did start going in my direction, or totally hit my target, either a few hours after my exit or 24 hours later.

All these days had been Wednesdays.

After I cut my loss, I had gone into my personal library to dig out some material I came across before, and to take a closer look at something that I never really took into account when I trade the futures: market participants (who they are - farmers/merchants/banks, speculators, hedge fund managers etc, and WHEN they operate).

My hypothesis about why the chart did what it did and why I kept hanging on to my biased view was confirmed when I traded the TF later in the evening (US morning of course) - when a wolfe pattern failed during lunch hour (learning very quickly from my 6E experience just hours before, I told D to refrain from buying a breakout - which is needed for price to get to wolfe target).

In any case, a hard stop would have saved me from myself. I had a lot of conviction, which was why I didn't want a stop to get in the way (what an irony). Extremely stupid, looking back. But then of course everything always appears obvious with the benefit of hindsight. It takes a hell lot of discipline and UNCOMMON SENSE to immediately recognize and stop a stupid act that's about to happen. I have neither discipline nor uncommon sense.

But I have an endless supply of energy. Maybe that's exactly what makes things worse. Instead of taking a hiatus after that 1k loss (6J took it!) from 2 weeks ago, I went right back to work after a 2-day break....

And after yesterday's 1k blunder, I went right back in to intervene in D's trading.

I had started off by telling D I would stop trading altogether for a while, and share with him about Wolfe Waves instead. After US market opened, D traded the account, taking his usual 1 to 3 ticks (since I said I wouldn't trade) before I spotted the wolfe pattern.

When I told him to go long at 595, he hesitated but went with it anyway. BUT he got out after 3 ticks instead of holding and moving his stops til we see the 3rd target (see chart below). When TF hit 600 in a parabolic move up, he blamed himself for not having persuaded me to take the trade myself.

As if things hadn't been bad enough up to that point, D had to sell at a place that I would buy, after TF pulled back from 600.

I hit the bid column on booktrader, covering his short.

D yelled "WHAT ARE YOU DOING??!!!" (I know, someone who has lost 1k just moments ago really shouldn't be meddling in the trade of another who has a record of zero to one losing day out of 20 on average) .

I was stunned, but only for seconds. Then I hit bid once more to get in on a long trade, at 3 ticks higher than where I had covered D's short (where I covered his short was exactly where I had wanted to go long - in other words, I had wanted to flip his trade - but D shocked me, and I was late hitting bid a second time as a result).

After I covered my long at +9 ticks, D thanked me for stopping his short at minimal damage, and for the rest of the day, we were in consultative mode (until I went in for my shower when D quietly took some "lunch time" trades).

It was fun - trading with D. And we might just do it again. I'm tempted to let D execute all the trades I identify. D doesn't lift stops - which means I can say goodbye to 2.5% drawdowns in a single trade forever.

On TWS - Red arrow shows where D entered on wolfe pattern, Blue arrow shows D's short that that I covered, Green arrow shows where I went long after covering D's short

TF 1min (my apologies for the blur - program was going to shut down, and I hadn't saved the chart, so needed to do a capture immediately - click to get a better view)