Pre-Market Analysis - GS 7/3 (Correction: No Belt Hold)

Pulled up GS' daily chart today and noticed that the candle for Jul 3 is different from that which was initially captured.

This is the updated chart showing a candle with a smaller body and a longer upper shadow (hence effectively disqualifying it as a belt hold):



This is what I see when I look at the daily chart: granted that GS gapped up for 2 consecutive days, the body of the bullish candles were getting smaller and the upper shadows are getting longer (upper shadow represents sellers). The high of Jul 3 has also hit what is by now a 5-month resistance.

Volume has dipped significantly from above average on Jul 2 to way below average on Jul 3 - but given that Jul 3 was the eve of a major holiday, the dip is hardly a surprise. Of course I could choose to look at the unimpressive trading volume as a sign that a reversal of the primary trend (ie. DOWN) is at least NOT around the corner.

Simply put, when I look at GS' daily chart, I just don't see it going up from where it is now in the next few trading days.

Zooming into the intraday (hourly) chart, this is what I see: in an uptrend (more precisely, a 3-day rally in what seems to me to be a general downtrend), GS has gapped up moderately, then dipped gradually and continually to its close. In a full-session trading day, if GS' uptrend has any strength, it ought to have rallied from its first dip back up to at least its open price. Since Jul 3 was a half-day session, it's difficult to tell if its closing without having ever rallied from its dip (after gapping up in an uptrend) actually means anything.

For now, based on the daily chart, it seems that GS' upward move from Jul 1 has lost momentum.

Personally, I like to do a thorough analysis on my weekly and monthly charts for the bigger picture once a week or whenever the prevailing trend seems to be losing strength or when I am totally confused by what I'm looking at on the daily chart.

But that's not going to happen tonight...In any case, charts can tell whatever stories they want to tell, what's fact is real-time price movement.

In a nutshell, before the market opens on Monday, it's rumors, news (on GS, on the other sector leaders, etc), the things that Fed says and does, general market sentiments (movement in the indices) , movement in oil prices (which should be reflected in overall general market sentiments anyways, so I'm going to forget my crude oil chart - I'm going nuts looking at charts!) that will have a more immediate effect on the movement of GS.