Pre-market Analysis 7/30

The market rallied yesterday on:

1) Declining oil (questionable now, really, since I was lost yesterday as to who was leading who...)

2) A soaring financial sector

3) Better than expected consumer confidence data (which we know has little correlation with real consumer spending, but do daytraders really care? Any data that has bearing on immediate sentiments MATTERS)

4) Good earning reports from companies

5) The fact that it's Tues (??)

So, DOW gained 266.48 points. Nasdaq, S&P and Russell all closed in positive territory.

This is how my daily chart looks now:



As mentioned in my pre-market analysis for July 28, my take was that we were going to trade in a box-range til today.

So what's special about today?

Well, traditionally, the last 2 days of the trading month are good trading days. For the bulls at least.

I still see my bear flag.

I don't know what else to say about my chart.

Let's see if support holds today.

Unless price gets higher than the high of Jul 23's session, I'm not going to turn bullish this week or even next.

And even if I have reasons to be bullish, I will tread very carefully for each session coz any bad news intraday will send the market plunging. By the same token, on a very bearish day, a single piece of good news can send the market soaring for the day, depending on how desperate people are in looking for signs of a reversal.

All said, I'm bearish for now. Treasury Secretary Paulson is not letting the free market do its thing, and I'm anticipating repercussions over time. It could happen in the days or weeks to come, maybe months. In any case, if the current generation is not paying the price, the next generation or the one after, will. And thanks to globalization, we're all going to have to pay (in fact, with my investment account in USD, I am already officially paying... $#*(@$*%)...

But, as a daytrader, for today, I care more about what's going to happen from now to 4pm EST.

By the way, oil has found support at around $122 and holding steady for now.

ADP Employment data for July will be out at 815pm EST. Current consensus is -60K, revised from -79K.