Friday, December 12, 2008

TF Trades 12/12



+ 3.1 points

DOW was at negative 200 over, and the other major indices were hovering slightly above fib 61.8 retracement level just prior to open. This is what DOW, and the other indices are doing at 10am EST:


On its 5min chart, TF broke out of consolidation at around 9:50am EST and rallied (for 3 candles) up to around 454, which is the peak from 3:50pm EST yesterday. Clearly a resistance now. About time for a correction anyway. That was almost a vertical run up.

TF 5min


1 min chart is showing a HS. So I'm really doubting that this is just going to be a pullback. Looks like 5min is going to form an inverted 'V' bringing TF all the way back to base (consolidation at 9:30 - 9:50 am EST) by the time the HS formation is completed on the 1min chart.

TF 1min


Even if I don't have a class tomorrow morning (which I do), I'm not staying to play. The second part of the market has gotten too challenging for me lately.

Update (10:40 am EST)



1min is forming what looks like a bull wedge to me, and on 5 min, TF seems to be making an attempt to test its previous peak after having retraced by about 50%.

If TF fails to break above pink and red trendlines, it could turn back down to base. If I were going to go short, I'll wait for a reversal pattern to appear on 1min (shooting stars, bearish engulfing, HS), and a double top or another bearish engulfing pattern to appear on 5min. Confirmation for entry would be a close below the valley (at around 444) between the 2 peaks on 5min.

I'm still not playing. But D is. This is the worst time to trade the TF (for me) coz it's too painfully slow, and can get really psycho.

As I'm typing, 1min is already showing a completed DOUBLE BOTTOM. Bullish! on 5min, this simply means that there's a chance for a 2 second measured move up.

2 comments:

andrewunknown said...

Hi Jules,
I happened upon your blog through one or several others (probably TLT and TraderGav) a little while ago and with some idle time on a Sunday afternoon thought I might as well introduce myself. Yours is among those few trading blogs where wit and humor are pretty seamlessly and effectively meshed with analysis; something that keeps me reading, anyway. Nice to make your acquaintance, and thanks for the insightful and entertaining read.

Andrewunknown

Jules said...

Thank YOU, Andrew!

You just made my YEAR. :-)

Seriously, coming from you, that's really heartening.

It was a pleasure meeting you in cyberspace (at TLT's) :-)