FX Trades 10/24 (Closed All Positions) And USD/JPY

Closed all positions from 2 hours ago.
Reasons:

1. SS turning up in bullish crossover
2. 60 min candles look like they are forming hammers
3. Distance of prices from their respective necklines is 3 times that of necklines from top of their HS. Don't want to stretch my luck for today
4. Going out with D (on leave today to prepare for his trip to HK tmrw), and really don't want to have to worry about my open positions

Hourly Charts: CHF/JPY, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY


Profit: $328

Trading Log for 10/24:


Account Summary:


I'm REALLY tempted to short this - The USD/JPY

I'm wondering: is the US beginning to sell their own currency after seeing its value being driven up (by those who snapped up their debt instruments??) steadily over the past months?

As far as I know, they DON'T actually like their currency strong (despite what they claim).

Well, they do owe a lot of people/countries A LOT of greenbacks...if only they can somehow find a way to pay back A LOT less....

But wait, do they still have anything in their reserve to sell?

If they don't, they can always print some, I guess.

Ok, I should stop analyzing the USD and anything else US. They totally confuse me.

Anyway, fundamentals aside, the USD's rally is a correction of 50% (on USD/JPY monthly chart) in a downtrend that began in mid July - about time it resumes its downward trend.

"Control" Basket of FX Pairs And New FX Trades 10/24

Simulated trading platform has now been used as "control" for me to keep track of a basket of selected fx pairs.


All positions were opened together with the real money trades yesterday at 12am EST.

From the time that I entered, all the pairs were showing me a loss.

By 3am EST, the loss for this "control" group was up to $1200 in total, with GBP/USD and EUR/JPY incurring the bulk of the loss.

Strangely, by the time US market opened, GBP/USD was the one that's making me the most money. It was a pity that this had to be the pair that I closed the earliest in my real money trade (at around 3am EST, 3 hours after I entered). GBP has been volatile.

The next pair I closed was EUR/USD.

I broke even eventually (well, not exactly, I made $1.07. Ha ha).

All the yen crosses were closed with a profit.

On FXGame, the basket's showing $2400 profit at 2:30am EST today (about half hour ago).

24 hours ago, it was $1200 in the red (that's the worst it did - lasted for a few minutes, then went back down to a range of -600 to -800, then basket started to show profit - albeit not impressive (300 - 600) - about an hour prior to US market open).

All 9 pairs in the simulated basket are 10,000 mini contracts.

In total, my position was less than a standard lot size.

90,000 units lot for a profit of $2400 in 26 hours; worst retracement came at a cost of $1200.

Gives me an idea of what my stop loss should be in future.

That said, it's premature at this point to determine what an ideal stop loss is for now.

A month (at least) of data collection is in order.

Update (12/17):

- Closed EUR/USD at loss of $1200 (EUR/USD has rallied up from bottom and is now above 20-year resistance at around 1.37).
- Closed AUD/USD at loss of $700

New real money positions opened at around 2:45am EST today:



Entered at limit and waited for order to be filled at "Ask" price.

Hur Hur Hur....

NQ Trades 10/23

Another one of those crazy days where the candles of the 5 min chart are threaded onto the MAs like kebabs ready to be grilled:


Was paying more attention to the 30min chart to keep track of how much NQ had moved up / down (on a mildly crazy day, a near 40-50 point move is followed by an approximate 20-30 point retracement on the 30min chart).

Entry and exit totally based on what I was seeing on the tape (was using IB's BookTrader).

My eyes are seeing double now, so am calling it a day.

FX Trades 10/23

New positions:


Slipped my mind to sell at "ask" price (I ALWAYS do that, and wait patiently to be filled).

Spread's terrible!

FX Trades - Close Positions

Close Positions. Prices are stalling. Waiting to see if trends are continuing or reversing.

NQ and FX Trades 10/22

Realized I can't win scalping NQ. None of the contract sizes I've explored seemed right. Was at wit's end....until I took a good look at my 30min chart and saw this: clear consistent patterns.

In a market full of intraday noise, I figured my best play is to go for swings - 1 contract at a time on my favorite 30min chart.

Trade #1:
Went short pre-market (at 4:50am) when NQ was coming down after hitting resistance at 1303. No profit target was set. Hammer prompted exit at 6am.


Trade #2:
Entered long on the 10am candle after NQ bounced off support and when DOW was rising from -500 to -300. Profit target was set at fib retracement of 38.2%, but slowing momentum prompted my intervention before NQ hit that level. Meant to sell at market, but hit "ASK" instead and ended up with 2 long contracts! Sold both immediately and was relieved that NQ was still going up, and I got out at my initial target!


For now:



Exiting EMD at 543...I think...

FX: $717 (Positions are still open)


GBP/USD (on 60min chart) looking really good for shorting now:

NDX And NQ 10/22

NDX Monthly

Chart shows an NDX that has retraced more than 61.8% since its tenacious climb to 2240 (from its 2002 low of around 800).

Where NDX is now is also 2 times the neckline of the HS seen in the monthly chart, and also where fib ext 161.8% is.

Should support at around 1164 fail to hold, NDX could easily nosedive to its 2002 low, or even lower - to 700 ie. fib ext 261.8%

_________________________________________

NDX Weekly

I'm seeing a bear flag.

Where NDX is pausing now seems like wave 4 in the making in the downtrend that began in late 2007.

Weekly chart's not looking good for the bulls.

_________________________________________

NDX Daily

Not looking so good for anyone.

I see:
1) a wedge
2) what looks like either an incomplete or truncated wave 5
3) a double bottom
4) faded gaps (which gives me the feeling that NDX is all set to go down some more)

_________________________________________________

My stand?

NDX will probably make an attempt to hit 1368.

If the resistance holds, NDX could easily plunge back down to around 1190, for starters.

_________________________________________________

NQ 30min


3 resistances:
1318, 1336, 1354

I'm expecting NQ to dive right back down to around 1190 before the end of this week.

FX Trades 10/22

Unrealized Profit: $600 (from yesterday's $400)

On Scalping The NQ

Lord Tedders said this:

Here's my thoughts. Going for 10 points a day with 2-3 trades isn't scalping IMHO. On the NQ a scalp by my sights is about 1-2 points. So you either need 5-10 scalps to reach this target or recognize that you are actually going for larger swings that will require larger stops and significant retracements.

Either of these methods can work but a scalp requires getting in and out fast - you either make it or lose it - no holding on. If you are position daytrading you only have 1-2 trades per day and much larger stops. Also IMHO it is hard to win 10/10 days. 8 or 9 out of 10 ain't bad.

Thanks, LT, for your advice. I noticed too that it's difficult to get beyond 2 points per scalp when scalping the NQ. I've also noticed that it's difficult to run when the trade's going against me by 2 points. I tend to stay too long in a loss, yet not long enough for it to come back to the point where I entered.

Take yesterday for instance - had I sat through the retracement, I would've had made a rather handsome profit.

It's all about not losing your vision.

I lost mine.

I'm not going to blame my state, coz I had chosen to trade despite my not having prepared adequately for the session.

I have to get out of my current mode fast, and get back on track.

Guilt's a totally unproductive state, and I have to get rid of it.

If insane focus on what I'm doing is what it takes to get me to where I want to be, then so be it.

NQ and FX Trades 10/21

NQ's not talking to me anymore:




FX's slightly better:

Blogging, FX Trading, The Wacky Market and Such

D noticed that I've not been updating my blog as frequently as I used to. I happen to have noticed that too.

It's not that I've run out of topics - I have a list that will take me a month to finish if I just blog on 1 of them a day.

The truth is, I don't see any value in what I have to say.

I've wanted to blog about the nasty, uncalled for and malicious comments I've been seeing on others' blogs. I scrap the idea eventually. Many are going through a bad time - perhaps there's really simply nothing else better for these anonymous vipers to do; and if attacking their counterparts offer them some kind of relief and comfort, I'll be a terrible person to attack them.

I've really wanted to post something on the global economy. But others are already doing a far better job. Much better for me to spend my time reading them than writing about what I think.

Then there's this 10-part series on my family saga that I am really tempted to start on, but I want my Granny to rest in peace for now. My memoir can wait.

I must have a dozen drafts on daily market analysis, which I have NOT posted, coz I didn't want a CERTAIN SOMEONE to go into the market with a bias view during a period that calls for a heap of FLEXIBILITY and a lot of experience and traders' INTUITION to ride through the storm. Most importantly, I didn't see the point of writing when the person I wanted to benefit the most wasn't reading. Yes, I see the contradiction in this para. I'm always in one jumble after another. That pretty much sums up who I am.

I've wanted to blog on my FX trades - with charts and all - but decided that they are best left where there are now: in my physical FX scrapbook. Don't want to waste anyone's time reading them coz I haven't come up with a systematic way of trading FX. If I've been losing money, I wouldn't mind posting them as learning lessons for both myself and those who are reading them.The way I trade FX is that I don't exit until I see profits. I trade very small lots (NOT the standard 100,000 units lot), and let my losses run. Some call it contrarian. I don't. Contrarian is something else. Buffet is a contrarian; I'm just NON-MAINSTREAM. I adopted the concept of NOT taking a loss, while focusing on getting on the right side of the trend, from an FX trader who believes that retail FX traders are inherently disadvantaged and therefore must somehow find a way to catch a ride with the big players. Those who are interested might want to check out "Bird Watching in Lion Country". For preview, visit The Lonely Trader's blog, and check out the list on his blogroll. One of them has an extensive write-up on the author and his method. I'm not telling which one it is, only coz going through his blogroll list is a good exercise. You'll find some treasures there.

I might start to post my pre-market analysis again once I'm comfortable that having a view is better than NOT having one (for the past month, I really see the benefit of NOT going into the market with an impression, expectation, and view of any sorts) before the US market opens.

Once D leaves for HK (5 days from now), I might just start a mini-series on "100 Things I Love and Hate About D".

Hur Hur Hur......

I am going back to trading my real money account. Since I trade better in a bad state, I can't see the logics of not using real money now that I'm highly dysfunctional.

If I make any money, I'm going to have to start thinking seriously about writing a book, and give it a title along the line of "an anti-thesis of trading psychology".

Reply III

Todd,
I'm sorry I deleted your following comment (copied from my email notification) by mistake:

How sad life can feel.
Death stalks us throughout our lives.
And yet, the bird I hear singing now in the early morning reminds me that all we truly Have, abides in the moment, so for that I can be thankful and happy for.
I'm sorry for your loss.

Thanks for your note.

I feel sorry about Granny too.

It is a great loss.

She was the only one left of my Dad.

As Seabloke said - there's NO MORE.

Proprietary Trader,
Thanks for your email. I really appreciate it. I'm doing fine. The heart just needs some time.

Secblog,
Thanks for your comment. I didn't start out wanting this to be an informative blog, but am glad you like the content. What I have is really a diary of sorts. Seabloke and D used to be my only target audience. Speaking of which, I realized it had slipped my mind to put in my birthday wishlist :-)
You have a very interesting blog yourself.

NQ Trades 10/17

2 trades going long - the 1st is a scalp; the 2nd is something else (basically, a lousy entry that I decided to sit through, and position was automatically closed when NQ hit my preset profit target).





I'm officially a non-bear - until the double bottom pattern fails that is.


Set my TWS layout to hide pnL when I'm in trade. Works for me. Allows me to focus on price movements and patterns. PnL data distracts me and derails my plan.

Reply II

Thanks, Sage, Harry, Moyo for your emails and comments. I'm ok. My granny went peacefully - she suffered a massive stroke and didn't quite regain consciousness...

I can't complain about the way she was taken: quick and painless.

The only part that I haven't been able to come to terms with is that I've not made good my words - I promised to show her my new home (which I didn't actually want to, coz my flooring's black, and I hack all my walls - I did everything that she hated..) and I didn't get to.

We chatted on the phone just a few days before she fell, and I promised I would call more often (even though I suck big time at small talk, and always hated to have to ask her the same old "have you had your breakfast/lunch/dinner" and "how're your legs" questions), and she was so happy she told Seabloke.

Granny was the reason I got to finish school after my Dad passed away (when his assets were frozen for reasons far out of the scope of this blog entry), and the reason I'm living a normal life today.

Granny had always been overbearing, extremely fiery and extremely doting at the same time. Her presence had been impossible to ignore. At 84, she was far more alert than me, and was way better with people than me. It's been difficult to look at her lifeless body for the past 2 days, and be convinced that that's my granny. I kept going to look at her face, zooming in and zooming out, just wanting to get a firm grip on reality...

I was telling D just hours before she left us that I was going to spend the following week telling her about Christ - I believe she could hear me (she responded by choking everytime I nudged her - I knew she did, and I didn't care that the consultant who attended to her insisted that her entire brain was damaged). Really, I couldn't think of a better opportunity to share with her my faith (I mean, she wouldn't be able to tell me to shut up!).

For some strange reason, I know that she's in a good place. She must have believed in what I believe, since she's never asked me to hold a joss stick...

I trust that she is in the good hands of Christ my Lord.

Thanks, Cory, for your email. I'm sorry about what you went through, and am immensely happy for you that you eventually found yourself a new life. I'll reply soonest I can.

Thanks, Lord Tedders, for your comment on scalping NQ. Will publish and comment as soon as I can.

Thanks, Michelle (INO), for your email. I've given your a brief reply. Yes, will call you. On Friday.

Granny Passed Away Today

Kissed her at 1.

And she's gone 6 hours later.

Life.

How I Trade The NQ - A TOTAL DISASTER

D read what he was supposed to read (It's an irony that I had started blogging seriously on TRADING for D, yet he seems more interested in my non-trading related postings!), so I am resuming my blogging activity.

This has gotta be the most comical of all my trades - paper and real (NOT the YG - that was the trade I closed earlier today):

It was a trade I shouldn't have taken (wrong timeframe), but I went in anyhow.

I was looking for a trade.

I had spent 9:30 - 11am staring at a chart that had obviously made a lower high, fallen back below 1280, and DID NOTHING.

And I can't stand not having done anything. So, I went in at the 12:35 candle (circled in grey on chart below), and set my profit target at 1210.

What happened next was typical of what had been happening for the past few sessions - the trade went against me almost immediately.

Since I've set my profit target, I decided to take a shower.

That was a clear sign of me giving up.

I told D to take over the trade.

He did, and closed my trade at 1225 (I entered at 1226.25 with 2 contracts).

A while later, he came in to apologize, coz NQ had gone below 1210.

I said it was ok. There was really nothing to be sorry about. It was the wrong entry anyway.

I had totally lost the ability to catch a plunge.

I no longer know what I am doing.

With ER2, I used to have a plan.

I either went in pre-market for a swing with a stop loss in place, or I scalped without a stop, and ran whenever I started losing by a few ticks.

With NQ, the first few days were good - I could catch the plunge at the moment it plunged.

Then I started to have to sit through major retracements before I could get my targeted profit (there were occasions where I simply couldn't cut my loss when the loss was up to $3000!).

I always ended up getting my $1000 over profit, coz we're basically in a bear market, and NQ always ended up at a certain fib level (138.2/ 161.8). And since I tend to give a lot of buffer (my profit target is always far away from that level), it was not at all difficult to get the profit I wanted with the contract size I was trading.

But those were paper trades.

Seeing a loss of $3000 was NOT NICE, but it wasn't devastating. So I had always held on, coz what I was focusing on was my destination. I didn't care how I got there, as long as I got there.

Would it have been different if I were using real money?

I would think so.

Now of course I could rationalize that if I could get away with that kind of trading system (if I could call it a system in the first place) 10 times out of 10, then i should just trust that it will work in real-money trades.

But I couldn't convince myself to use such a method. It was a method that works only when there isn't a stop loss.

I just need to be wrong once to have a substantial portion of my account wiped out.

What I am looking at is more than a position sizing problem.

Even when I scaled down to 5 contracts, I sat through the same retracement.

It's extremely frustrating to be able to visualize mountains and flags before they even took shape, yet not knowing where to enter without taking a huge loss on paper first.

Like I said, with real money, I just need to be wrong once to suffer a huge setback.

The problem that I've been having with NQ is that I don't cut loss.

When I'm supposed to scalp, I don't run when I'm supposed to. When I decided to stay for a longer trade, I don't set a stop loss.

All my rules are thrown out of the window.

I kept insisting I know where my destination is, but I hadn't given much thought to how I get there.

If I keep getting hitchhikes like that, I could get murdered before I get to my destination.

I know it has something to do with the target I set.

With ER2, I didn't really have a daily target - I just took whatever I could get from the market.

Was I happy with my results?

Not really.

So I set a higher target.

Without this higher target in mind, I could start trading NQ right away with real money.

But I don't want to.

I am giving it another shot at achieving my target of 1k a day with a reasonable risk to reward ratio.

And I will let time tell me if I am naive, greedy, or just simply nuts.

New Label

Starting from my next posting on pre-market analysis/comments, I'm going to have to add a label "Must Read For D".

I used "SCHIZO" to describe the market in my earlier posting today.

And it did exactly what I said it MIGHT do.

That's why I'm mad.

I will stop blogging until D reads MUST READ.

&%$%*#%&$!!!!!

D is still adorable of course.

Very adorable.

FX (Simulated) Trades 10/8 - Closed All Positions

Came back from the hospital and noticed that unrealized P & L has shrunk from 4700 to around 3300.

Closed all positions.

Regroup.

Anyway, when US market opens, it alway does something to my P & L, and it usually is NOT good.

I would have loved to leave half on the table, but I haven't found that option on Oanda.

Haven't found the trail stop feature either.

I'm glad I'm paper trading.

Current NAV: 110,000

FX - Reasons For Sitting and Holding

Here are the reasons I'm holding my positions:

Technically:
Monthly and weekly charts are all showing BB that's either just beginning to widen or is still widening, MACD and Stoch all supporting a bearish trend.

AUD and NZD


JPY Crosses


Fundamentally:

• Market's jittery, best to play risk aversion ie. LONG JPY.
• Shorting AUD and NZD (NOT longing USD, but really just shorting AUD. And since I'm shorting AUD, might as well short NZD - since NZ's economy depends so much on what happens in Australia. I could short AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY of course, but that will mean too much exposure to JPY. If even rising gold can't help these 2 countries, I'm going to sit on my short entry for now.

P&L for now

YG (Simulated) Trade - Close Position

Closed position. Before it offsets my "profit" in FX. Silly to wait til it goes up to 923. Regroup.

FX (Simulated) Trades 10/8 - Tempted To Take Profit

All in green. Tempted to close positions!!



Proprietary Trader, I'm hopeless at sitting tight!

But I'll hold.

YG (Simulated) Trade and NQ

Yikes!!!


Holding until it goes up to 923 again. Looks like one failed bull flag after another to me.



NQ Oct 10

If NQ doesn't go up to 1280, and stay above that before 12pm EST today, it's going to plunge to fib 161.8.

I'm not betting on it to climb up to that level (1280) pre-market.

Hence, am not going to enter short (yup, I'm still a bear) before market opens - even if it tests 1280 and fails.

Market's a little schizo now, and might just rally after 9:30am EST.

NQ 30min

FX (Simulated) Trades 10/8 - Update

(Click to enlarge)


Holding.

Monthly and weekly charts are encouraging.

For details, see this.

Current net asset value (since 100k game account was opened on Sep 25) : $109,941

Free Falling NQ, YM and ES??

Fib 161.8 & 261.8 levels for:

NQ: 1120 & 923

YM: 8080 & 6380

ES: 839 & 640

NQ


NQ


YM


ES

NQ (Simulated) Trades 10/9

For now...


Charts are all screwed and the only one that's usable (barely) is the 1 day 1-min. Had to rely on my indicators, and noticed that they are not too bad.

Wonderful Life

Didn't trade last night.

Brought Al and Keisha to Dr Nathan's. Al had his daily shots of antibiotic and liquids , and Keisha was there for a blood test.

Seems like Al's getting better.

But Keisha is the problem now. She's not been eating. Bad teeth. Dr Nathan has put her on medication for the time being until she's ready for her dental surgery.

By the time we got home, market has already opened. After we had dinner, it was near 11am EST.

Granny's going to be transferred to another hospital. She's no longer going to be herself. She won't be able to sit up and eat anymore; she probably wouldn't be able to move at all for the rest of her life.

D is going to Hong Kong this month to meet up with his mum who's flying in from LA, and they will spend a week there visiting their friends and relatives.

And I gather that while he's there, D will probably check in on a significant someone.

D had asked me to join him, since my closest friends and my only child are now living in Hong Kong.

I turned down the kind offer.

Too huge an emotional baggage.

Too many bad memories.

And a single person whose throat I'm afraid I'll go for should I run into her.

I'm convinced now, that there are just too many things that I can't prevent from happening.

The best I can do is to let go, and be prepared for the days where all the people that matter to me will leave me - one at a time, one way or the other.

And D is the first person I have to purge from the core of my heart. He is a good person. But I'm not. So we are inherently NOT meant to be. And for as long as I know that, I'll always be prepared for him to leave me for a sweet, decent, NORMAL woman.

So, I'm letting him go, for the 2nd time in 6 months, to a place that I think will haunt me for a very long time.

Anyway, it'll be fun without him around. I can now sit in front of my computer for 20 hours a day, skip my meals, skip all my grooming routines ,and be a bona fide WITCH!!

I'm glad I have a cleaning lady, coz I'm going to have to depend on her to make my shell as sanitized as it can possibly get before D's mum arrives. Something to do with first impressions.

Yes, that's going to be the first time I'm meeting D's mum in the 15 years that I've been with D.

She's a brain surgeon; I'm a smoker.

I think we'll make great pals.

Ha Ha.

One of D's favorite songs (I don't need to be a genius to figure out that the friend he needs isn't me, and I wonder when I'll ever be kind enough to release him):

Wonderful Life

Here I go out to see again
the sunshine fills my hair
and dreams hang in the air
Gulls in the sky and in my blue eyes
you know it feels unfair
there's magic everywhere

Look at me standing
here on my own again
up straight in the sunshine

No need to run and hide
it's a wonderful, wonderful life
No need to laugh and cry
it's a wonderful, wonderful life

Sun in your eyes
the heat is in your hair
they seem to hate you
because you're there
and I need a friend
Oh, I need a friend
to make me happy
not stand here on my own

Look at me standing
here on my own again
up straight in the sunshine

No need to run and hide
it's a wonderful, wonderful life
No need to laugh and cry
it's a wonderful, wonderful life

I need a friend
oh, I need friend
to make me happy
not so alone.......
Look at me here
here on my own again
up straight in the sunshine

No need to run and hide
it's a wonderful, wonderful life
No need to laugh and cry
it's a wonderful, wonderful life

No need to run and hide
it's a wonderful, wonderful life
No need to run and hide
it's a wonderful, wonderful life
wonderful life, wonderful life

FX (Simulated) Trades 10/8

4 positions opened at 6:45am EST:


Not filling me yet....
Fine.