About Blogging Motives & Depression

I really like Complacent Panda's latest posting on "Motives". Perhaps coz it brought up a number of points that I can really subscribe to.

From time to time, I ask myself why I'm still blogging.

The answer is always this: my blog is a place where I can dump my thoughts - both toxic and benign. It's a place I feel safe enough to speak my mind, be myself, and from where I get a little interaction with fellow human beings. It's primarily a trading blog still of course - where I keep track of my progress and stockpile my trading ideas and plans.

The reason I want to write as little as possible on non-trading related matters is so that those who are here to take a peek at the life of someone who trades fulltime will not find the visit a waste of their time. Somehow, along the way, I started to actually want this blog to benefit others too. I'm still insisting that my writing doesn't educate. But for those who are curious about the struggles of a woman who was raised to embrace non-capitalist values, who knew next to nothing about investing and trading before, and who's now aspiring to someday be able to trade for a living, I hope my blog will at least give them a rough idea...

A warning to those who chance upon this personal space of mine - I'm not a particularly cheery person, and although I totally advocate positive thinking, I'm still very far from being able to do that on a consistent basis. I suffer from chronic depression since I turned 17, and am on long-term medication to keep my blood pressure down and my brain from firing too many signals (to do crazy things). Unprovoked, I'm nice, generally. I was raised the very traditionally Chinese way by an English educated father (who didn't know how to write his name in Chinese) - yes that means I got a fair amount of spankings as a kid, always greet my elders and say my pleases and thank yous, and smile A LOT - and self-control is my 3rd motto. What that means is that you won't see a lot of expletives even when I'm really, really mad. So, just because I'm not swearing and cursing doesn't necessarily mean that I'm not frustrated or pissed. I am an emotional person, and bad trades affect me. When I'm not ecstatically happy, it usually means I'm either pissed or downright depressed.

If you trade, and are somewhat of a moody person, my trading journey and results might offer an insight as to whether there's really any truth in the popular saying that only the emotionally inert should trade. To the best of my knowledge, most traders are consistently depressed.

And I'm a woman. So expect me to have more mood swings than the general trading population.

ES & TF Trades 3/6

Total for today: USD 157

Just when you think that ES is getting choppier by the day, TF is both choppy and crazy. I really have nothing much to say about my trades. It's been difficult to find entries for ES coz the tape's simply not giving much signals. Looking for setups from charts means hours of sitting and watching. TF is totally impossible to trade based on tape. Charts are not looking pretty either. In fact, ES charts are really starting to look prettier.

TF has become a freaky stranger.

SIGH.

I'm calling it a day. My heart can use some rest. Don't wanna die in my sleep (Check out Sage's Matter of The Heart).

ES 3/6

ES Daily

ES Hourly

Once we close below 681.5, I would take it that our odds of reaching 645 (fib ext 132.8) has become higher.

ES 10min

We are now trading within the range of the last bullish candle on the 10min. Within the day, I'm prepared for ES to test 688.75 - 703.5, although my view is primarily bearish.

Game Plan

Using mainly the 3min and 1min for scalping. Will go primarily for shorts at key resistance. Longs will be considered as price makes newer lows.

RULES

- Honor all stops
- No holding of any loss for more than the max pain set for the day - exit position once reason for getting in is no longer there.
- Be objective at all times and stay with what chart is doing, NOT what it has done and what I think it will do
- Be attentive to what candles are saying, especially on 10mins.
- DOJIs! DOJIs! DOJIs!

ES Trades 3/5 - Love Scalping

Took 8 scalps to save half of what was lost in 2 trades that I used a stop loss and a target. Definitely not going to continue to experiment with holding a trade. Sticking to tape and tick indicator from now on until market's less crazy.

It's not a bad day. I decided to give holding a trade a shot, and was prepared to take the loss.

Will We Have Rainbows, Ever?

Lord Tedders' back on his trading blog! His comeback post: Time For Changes

Maybe I did mention to him that one is supposed to be able to write what he/she wants to on his/her own diary. I don't remember anymore, coz for a long time now, I've not been able to vent on mine.

My general motto towards life has always been to "MOVE ON". Shit happens to everyone, no one is spared - some get it more frequently than they think they can bear; the lucky ones get it maybe just once a year (like during Xmas and Chinese New Year). So I don't ask, "WHY ME?" - especially when I"m usually the one that cause bad things to happen in my life and to those around me.

So, unless I think that venting on my blog after crying alone helps get the toxins out of my system, I do not document unhappy moments on this personal journal of mine.

When I read this a few years down the road, I don't want to see an angry, out-of-control monster.

And I don't want a certain someone to have to read about all the things that make me perpetually mad, and sad.

But the fact remains that I am an angry person in a constant state of depression. I don't think it has anything to do with my trading full time. Maybe I'm born depressed, and I happened to have chosen just the job for me.

On Mar 04 2008, something really, really bad came to light. A chain of events took place after that that had me taking a good, hard look at myself. It was then that I realized I never grew beyond 16. I never grew out of being Daddy's girl, even after Dad has passed on for 15 years.

All I can say now is that I'm broken. Maybe I'll never be repaired. Maybe I'll never be able to contribute to society, or make a difference in anyone's life.

But life goes on.

It has to.

ES 3/5

ES Daily

ES Hourly

Turns out that what's in the green wedge is wave v in an ending diagonal. What I'm seeing now is the forming of abc corrective wave (wave IV). Looks like a Flat to me.

ES 10min

ES 3min

Support at 681.5. That's the way I see it for now. Will see how chart plays out.

Game Plan

Playing by ear. Experimenting with a setup that allows me to not have to run in and out. Would have worked out perfectly yesterday had I not had a short bias. 2nd entry was a disaster just for the simple reason that I failed to honor my stop.

RULES

- Honor all stops
- Be objective at all times and stay with what chart is doing, NOT what it has done and what I think it will do
- Be attentive to what candles are saying, especially on 10mins.
- DOJIs! DOJIs! DOJIs!

I hate D & W.

I hate D & J more though - Mismatch of the millennium.

ES Trades 3/4 - I Am A Bloody Woman

I am pissed with myself.

I keep holding on to THINGS I shouldn't be holding on to.

When will I ever learn to let go?

For today: -USD 375

ES 3/4

SPX Weekly

What I'm seeing: the next real support at 595 - 600

SPX Daily

What I'm seeing: we are in wave 3 of corrective wave Z.

What that means to me is that we still have a long way to go in the current downtrend. ADX could always go up to 50. It's done that before anyway.

ES Hourly

What I'm seeing: we are at wave 4 & 5 of wave v (which seems to be taking the form of an ending diagonal) of wave III (see SPX daily above).

Elliot aside, it simply means that I see ES moving up to 700 resistance and reversing to look for bottom at floor of green broadening wedge. Using wave 1 as seed, Fib ext 261.8 at 655 is my target for now.

That's the smaller picture. Don't quite want to think about the bigger one yet.

ES 3min

I'm going with the scenario that ES will trade up to 700, at most to 709, then move down beyond the low for today (681.85). It could trade within that range (681 - 709) during the pre-US market hours, and if it's trading in the upper region of that range by the time the active trading session begins, it's only going to get smacked down (after all, everyone loves to fade a gap, especially a gap up during a time like this). To where? I don't know. 655 I think. Just something for me to work with. Not entirely impossible. In order for us to move up, we need to go down big time first. This inching down everyday is not going to help.

Game Plan & Rules

Will trade the rally up if ES comes back down to white dotted uptrend line (on 3min chart above). Else, will give it a miss until it hits the high for the day. Then I'll be looking to short. I'll go long only if it trades in diagonal triangles (where wave 4 overlaps wave 1).

As usual, NOT going to hold any loss for more than 1 point. Will exit position once reason for getting in is no longer there.

ES Trades 3/3

Not a fantastic day:

1) Lost internet connection thrice - when I was in trade!
2) My cordless mouse kept asking me for new battery, and I couldn't give it one until D came home!
3) Planned my trades, traded my plan, got the direction right, totally stuck to my rules, and yet made no money.
4) My computer crashed on me, and when I managed to get it back up, I've lost the record of today's trades!!

All in all, I had 7 trades today. 4 winning, 3 losing. In sequence, it would be: win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win. Profit (before paying my broker USD 33.60 for 7 round trades): ZERO

Today's the day I realized that there are simply just days when you can do everything right, and not profit from it.

More importantly, I would like to celebrate today as the day that I finally felt absolutely nothing when I exited with small losses more than twice.

ES 3/3

SPX & ES Daily

Not looking so good....Index's really looking like it could trend further down...

ES Hourly

Definitely still holding the view that ES is trading down to the floor of the broadening wedge (blue trendlines) with the completion of wave 5....

ES 10min

I'm really not optimistic that ES will trade above pivot (at around 714).
675 (Fib ext 261.8) is where I think it could be going.

Game Plan & Rules

ES 3min

If wave c were to stop at 713.75, forming a double top with end of wave a, I'll look to scalp a 5-wave downtrend.

Again, NOT going to hold any loss for more than 1 point. Will exit position once reason for getting in is no longer there.

ES Trades 3/2

ES 3min

Before 7am EST, all downward movements were motive waves; all upward, corrective. High for the day for now is a mere 2.5 points higher than open and 6 points away from the high of the day's trading range, pivot's nowhere in sight, and newer lows have been reached with no sustainable bottom in sight.

While I'm usually unwilling to sell at such levels, today, I see no reason to just sit and watch. Counting waves have helped tremendously. Yet to figure out why I didn't do that before in scalping. I was probably too busy keeping a lookout for other things such as candlestick patterns, - which I've found rather unreliable in futures trading (except for maybe the stars and hammers, and, occasionally, the engulfing and haramis; hanging men work alright on the 3min).

Still relying largely on the tape to get in and out of trades during pre-US market hours. During active trading hours, the NYSE tick seems a saner choice.

Today's a relatively calm day for me. With the exception of the very first entry (which I held for too long again - doesn't matter that it didn't turn out to be a losing trade, I hate turning scalps to daytrades), I've kept to my rules about not sitting. Chose entries that were likely to go in my direction immediately. Charts were used to identify key S & R levels, market depth gave me a clue as to who is bailing when these levels are not reached/breached.

ES' looking like it could go up on a double bottom at 711.25 if it were to visit that level again before testing the high of day at 733.75.

Calling it a day.

For today: USD 200

Seabloke, Pilot, Me & Frankenstein

Seabloke dropped by today with Pilot (by the way, Pilot is really a pilot. A very dashing and mysterious man....My lucky future sister-in-law....) and lunch.

I went about setting up the table rather absent-mindedly, as my mind was on my charts, as always.

Finally when we were all seated and ready to dig in, Pilot said this AGAIN (the very first thing he said when I answered the door, but I was too distracted to pay any attention...):

"Thomas Edison did NOT invent the electric light bulb."

Sea: So who did?

Me: Frankenstein

Sea:????????

Pilot: An employee of Edison did. He was not given any credit for it.

Me: Ya, and his name is Frankenstein.

Sea: Seriously guys, so Thomas Edison wasn't the one who invented the electric light bulb?

Me: No, it was Frankenstein. The poor guy was struck by lightning in the process, turned green, and wasn't given any credit.

Pilot: By the way, do you guys know that the 108 Heroes of Liang Shan were actually terrorists?

Sea & Me: ???????

Me: What has that got to do with Frankenstein?

Pilot: I can't believe that people buy the story of 108 GOOD men. There's only 1 man that I'd call good and he's dead: Gandhi.

Sea: And Nelson Mandela

Me: But he's not dead yet.

Sea: ?????!!!!!

Sea: So, Pilot, from where did you find out that Thomas Edison was not the inventor of the light bulb?

Pilot: People talk. His employees have children and grandchildren who started talking.

Me: Well, so the man who was supposed to invent the telephone didn't actually invent the telephone, and now the man who was supposed to invent the light bulb didn't actually invent the light bulb...hmmm....so who was the poor fella who got struck by lightning??

Pilot: Wait, let me finish the story of the 108 terrorists.

Sea:???????????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sea insisted that I put this on my blog. I had no idea why, until she text me a while ago.

Sea: I still cannot stop reeling over Frankenstein.

Me: Why leh? He did invent the lightbulb mah.....No meh??

Sea: Yah Frankenstein did...

Me: Then why you laugh?

Sea: Hahahahahahahaha!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAHHHHHAAAAAHA!!!!!!

Sea again: I don't know why people find their siblings boring and rather go in search of friends. I cannot find anyone more hilarious than my siblings!

Ok, Sea, happy now? You just can't write your own diary can you? You better have this saved and backed up....

Oh, and I love you very,very,very much too!

But I'm not chipping in for your dinning table.

I'm preparing my own gift. Yes, I suffer from low self-esteem and just have to make a mark. LOL!!!!

ES 3/2

SPX Weekly

SPX Daily

ES Hourly

SPX weekly: Next level of support at 600

SPX Daily: We seem to be in wave 3 now...

ES Hourly:
We seem to be in wave 3 of an extended wave 3 of the higher degree (volume trend is NOT contradicting that)....ES could test low at floor of channel (in pink), bounce off from there, reverse back down at 729.5, then make its way to the floor of the broadening wedge (in blue), completing wave 5. By then, we should be at around 600, which is about Fib 261.8 from price peak at 1440.

Game Plan & Rules

ES 3min

ES just broke out of triangle. Looks like a wave 2 to me. I'm not doing anything until a temporary low has been formed ie. completion of wave 3. Will probably trade wave 4 up to the base of the triangle (which will be resistance for now) if wave 3 is substantially longer than what I'm actually seeing now. Definitely not making any attempts to call a bottom again. It's more likely that I'll look to sell short to end of wave 3 from resistance. Will see.

I'm hypothesizing that the low is going to be the completion of the 2nd leg of a measured move down...could be 714 - 716, or a perfect 700....

Anyway, it looks quite unlikely to me that we will get anywhere near pivot at 740 today . But the market has been doing strange things, so I'll be prepared for anything.

Given that we actually traded away from pivot on Friday, if the same scenario were to unfold today, it would be very telling of a market that's gone quite psycho.

What that means to me is that I would totally pass up risky entries. No entering on the assumption that price will make a dash for a particular level. Definitely no holding of any positions for more than 10 mins. No sitting on loss of more than 0.75 point for pre-market entries. If trade is not going in the desired direction, get out and wait for next setup. Sitting is a plain waste of time. Premarket gives plenty of opportunities to bail at breakeven or very minimal damage within mins.

ES Trades 2/27 - What I Really, Really Want

Not a great day. D was home on sick leave, and we watched a really touching movie - while I was scalping.

It was kind of funny, coz at one point, I was so busy watching my charts and tape, D had to help stop my timer (yes, I had to resort to using a timer to make sure I don't overstay, or run too fast).

It was really not professional. I wasn't focused, and when I wanted to go in short after losing nearly 2 points, D interrupted and said I needed a break badly. I was really, really upset, coz I'm a scalper -you don't interrupt a scalper. When the tape's running, and I see the chance to get in, I'll have to get in. No hesitation, no waiting to see what happens next.

Anyway, I got distracted, missed the tempo, and got in just in time to be run over by a stampede of petrified bears. Ended up sitting on my position longer than I planned to, and had to get out at breakeven when it was time to take Alberto to the vet.

When I got out, D gave me a nice long hug. I must look really tensed when I work. D seemed shocked to see how I really don't get out of my chair from 9 in the morning til 7 in the evening unless there's an emergency (e.g when my cats are hungry, and when HE is hungry, etc). I told him that's how I got to feel ES' beat - I just stare at it day after day and unless I have an assigment that takes me out of the house, I'm with it from the moment I get out of bed to the time I get back in.

Something else about how I trade. And that is that I'm convinced that holding's just not my style. Maybe someday I'll hold a 5-point winner. But that's not what I'm in for for now.

I don't like to have to wait for anything - if I want something, I must have it NOW.

It's good that there isn't a whole lot of things that I really want. Most times, all I really, really want, is someone that I can really talk to, someone who really knows me, and yet is able to love me for who I really am.

The other thing that I really, really, really want, is for all the living things I love to be cloned.

ES 2/27

ES Hourly

Price fallen back into Descending Broadening Wedge (blue trendlines) after having broken out. If support at 750 holds, ES should break out of wedge again and aim for 800. What I'm feeling is that it will be a lot more assuring if it goes down to test 739.75 first. That should happen if it's stopped by resistance at 760.

ES 10min

Suport at 750, Resistance at 760. Looks likely to me that a Wash and Rinse pattern could develope from here. Which means ES should test 750 after going up to 760. Confirmation of pattern is the breaking above of 760. Using Fib ext (not shown here), target of 161.8% is around 779. Makes sense. Am definitely looking forward to a miracle that will push ES right through 800.

ES 3min

Price rejecting 750 for now. Looks like 760 will be the highest it's going before the start of the US trading hours. That's also the pivot for now, and less than 1 point below yesterday's low. Which should make it tough to pierce.

Game Plan & Rules

I'm going to take a shot at holding my scalps longer once I'm in profit. WILL give trades 10 mins to work. If it doesn't, I exit, no matter what. If it works out, will give it another 20 - 30 mins to let profits run.

In the absence of an apparently great setup, I'll do my usual: scalp. A 2-point loss is the maximum that I'll take if momentum turns against me once I enter.

Will mainly be shorting at resistance, and buying at support. Entering only when price has closed on the desired side. Whenever the subsequent close is on the wrong side, I'm out.

As usual, I'm not looking to buy an upward breakout. Exception is if I had sold short at resistance, and price broke above it instead. 2 closes above is a must for me to go long in this case. A bullish pattern like a tight flag would give me no reason at all to avoid taking such a trade.

ES Trades 2/25

ES 3min

Clumsy day.

Started out pretty alright - took a 1 point profit (Shorted ES when indicators were all screaming oversold. I love doing that coz there's a level I see that it wanted to go, and ES being ES will get there by hook or by crook. Since I'm just scalping for 2 points at most most of the time, I don't actually need the "home run" type of setup).

2nd trade was where I fumbled. Went long at where I thought was the low for the day. Though bottom picking has never been my department, I still do it once in a blue moon with good reasons - for this particular trade, I went long because it was at the base of a channel. I did say that I'll only buy from bases of channels (so that I won't buy a breakout!). In retrospect, that was a really lousy reason. Firstly, that was a downward sloping channel, and ES has been coming down rather steeply. Secondly - and this is classic - I widened my channel to accommodate prices that had fallen beneath the original channel. And then I thought to myself, "There you go, base of channel. Buy!" Whenever I take a shot at being creative, nothing good comes out of it. But I was right about the bottom. It was the bottom, and ES did trade all the way back up to the ceiling of the channel and broke above. I didn't profit from it coz I bolted too fast. So you can be right and still not make money. And that's when you have no basis for taking a stance. Enter a trade without conviction, and half the battle is lost. I scratched the trade - losing 0.25 point.

3rd trade: More stupid than the 2nd. I bought again after getting out of my second, for what, I really don't know. Scratched again for the same reason: I don't trust my own call. I didn't even want to pay to see if I COULD be right. Exited at breakeven.

4th trade: I really don't know if I'm just dumb, or plain stubborn, or just greedy. Maybe I'm all of these. I went long AGAIN! Made 0.5 point this time. I was finally happy, and ended my buying spree (for that move up)

5th and 6th trade: Sold short when ES formed what looked a tad like a double-top right beneath the ceiling of the channel. ES broke above it, and I waited to see if it's a fake breakout. Still didn't want to get out after price actually closed above it. When little dojis started to form - 4 of them - and tape's telling a consistent bullish story, I knew I was going against traffic. Got out of my short position, and went in long at where I covered. Lost 1.25 point covering. But made 2 points on my long.

7th, 8th and 9th trades: Finally felt like I knew what I was doing. Went long on the assumption that ES will test day's high, and sold short when it didn't get anywhere near it. Bought hammers and sold mountains. The tape is still the only thing I use to gauge exactly where and when I enter and exit.

I definitely prefer yesterday's choppiness.

ES looks like it's going to break out of its 762 - 772 range, with a huge mountain sitting above it now. First leg of measured move down is made up of all bearish candles on both 3min and 10min charts. The high of the day is only 3 points from open. So, I'm not optimistic that 762 support will hold.

Am calling it a day. No more trading, just watching.

For today: USD 200

ES 2/25

ES Hourly

Still playing a breakout from the broadening wedge (blue trendlines).

Taking the start of the wash and rinse pattern (within the broadening wedge) as the seed, target is Fib ext 161.8% (807). Performance (that is, if ES manages to break out) would of course be affected by 800 resistance.

If ES fails to break above the wedge, and trades back down towards the base of the wedge, I'll watch for support at Fib 38.2% (around 755), and then at around 740.

GAME PLAN

Scalp within the zone of 755 - 775.

Be prepared for ES to trade back towards the floor of the broadening wedge.

Go long from base of channels (preferred). When trading breakouts, be prepared for it to fail and exit immediately when that happens.

(On ES 10min) Sell short only from KC's centreline - price should be forming a lower peak than the first one that enters the KC. Do NOT sell on the first close of price below KC's upper band. Watch stochastics - look for downward hook at 50 after it's come up from oversold; look for lower peak to form at overbought and at 50.

RULES

Scalping:
Get out of any open positions once the tape shows that the reason for getting in is no longer there

Daytrades:
Get out ONCE price closes above or below support & resistance

ES Trades 2/24 - Part 2 & Done For The Day

ES 3min

3min chart's great. I pay attention to my 10min and hourly still, especially the 10min. Not so much the 1min now since my eyes are on the tape all the time. 3min chart's key levels facilitate tape reading. My most preferred timeframe for now.

Table below shows all my trades for today. I couldn't help put in 2 last minute trades. I actually like the choppy trend today. ES's just forming mountains after mountains. You can buy, you can sell. You know when it's going to test the previous high, and it plunges without fail after breaking a neckline. I watched for nearly 3 hours after US market open, fighting the urge to get in.

Finally, I found my courage to ask D (who's now my personal coach and his only job is to kick my ass) if I could do just one quick scalp (when he was busy preparing for his presentation), he nodded his head absent-mindedly. Then I asked again if I could do another, and he nodded (apparently getting a little aggitated at being interrupted).

Hur Hur...Yes, I'm scheming.

Am really working towards consistent daily results. Targeting to increase contract size in Sept. Number of contracts will depend on how crazy market is then. If it's the normal crazy (like now), I'm happy to start with 2 to 3 contracts.

Total for today: USD 287

ES Trades 2/24

ES 3min

752.5 - Fri's Low
743.25 - Today's Low

Support for now - 749.75 (doesn't look like it's going to hold for much longer)
Resistance for now - 755.5

I can't decide if I should treat the trades below as winning or scratched trades. If I treat them as scratched (I did scratch them coz setups were just not working out - at least not as quickly as I expected them to), I can continue to trade without feeling like I've broken one of the 1000 rules I have.

I'm finally seeing a very nice HS setup to short all the way to 745, and D just text to say I should just call it a winning day....

This has been a daily battle for me for 3 months now. Some days I think I could tell the difference between overtrading, and the scratching of trades from lousy setups while waiting for the good ones to show; most days I need a very sensible and rational D to point out that the setups good enough for my trading style are virtually extinct now.

Am still working on developing a taste for ES' waltzing up, down and sideways on my chart.

ES 2/24

ES Hourly

If ES doesn't get above 750 as well as yesterday's low at 752.5, it's likely to form the 2nd leg of a Measured Move Down. Floor of the broadening formation (blue downtrend line) will be where I'll look out for support until I see a horizontal support. From where it is now, ES is likely to go up to test 748 first, then 752.5 & 757.5. I'm not going to even make a wild guess as to where it'll go after that.

Fed giving their semiannual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee today (tues) and the House Financial Services Committee tmrw (Wed).

GAME PLAN

Setup that I've been using earlier today:

ES 3min & 10min

Scalp within the zone of 740 - 750.

Be prepared for ES to trade to the floor of the Broadening Formation on ES Hourly (mentioned above).

(On ES 10min) Sell short only from KC's centreline - price should be forming a lower peak than the first one that enters the KC. Do NOT sell on the first close of price below KC's upper band. Watch stochastics - look for downward hook at 50 after it's come up from oversold; look for lower peak to form at overbought and at 50.

RULES

Scalping:
Get out of any open positions once the tape shows that the reason for getting in is no longer there

Daytrades:
Get out ONCE price closes above or below support & resistance