I'm not publishing the details of my one and only trade from yesterday (after US market open), coz I don't want anyone who is really new to trading to see a very bad example.
Briefly, I used my entire gains from last week (USD 1250) to find out a few things I HAVE TO know FOR SURE so that I can stop whinning about not being able to trade my plan. It's the way I learn, and the way I stretch myself. I don't like my fear, coz it hinders my trading. Forcing myself to stare at what I fear the most about trading in the eye is the only way I could rid myself of it. I survived it, and am a little taken aback that my heart beat NORMALLY in that 3 agonizing hours. I slept well too after getting stopped out. I'm a stronger person today, and I'm still liking the way I plan my trades.
Briefly, I used my entire gains from last week (USD 1250) to find out a few things I HAVE TO know FOR SURE so that I can stop whinning about not being able to trade my plan. It's the way I learn, and the way I stretch myself. I don't like my fear, coz it hinders my trading. Forcing myself to stare at what I fear the most about trading in the eye is the only way I could rid myself of it. I survived it, and am a little taken aback that my heart beat NORMALLY in that 3 agonizing hours. I slept well too after getting stopped out. I'm a stronger person today, and I'm still liking the way I plan my trades.
As a matter of fact, I have been executing my plans. That's why I really want to kick myself for having complained that I haven't traded my plan.
What I've not been doing is to take the profit that I ESTIMATED I could reasonably expect from that particular trade. After yesterday, I finally appreciated my very initial reason for not wanting to wait for that projected profit to fall on my lap.
It takes a lot of confidence to just put in your target and let it get hit. It's a luxury that belongs to only those that have spent years and years learning from the market, observing the probabilities of scenarios actually playing out as projected. One day I will get there, and although I would kill to make that day come this week, I know for a fact that that day is sometime in the hopefully not so distant future.
In the mean time, I will stick to my plan, but adopt a flexible approach to profit taking. I need consistent, or more aptly - routined - profits to build my confidence and accumulate my capital to the point where I can afford more aggressive play, and grow from there.
Moving on, below's my idea for today's trading.
What I've not been doing is to take the profit that I ESTIMATED I could reasonably expect from that particular trade. After yesterday, I finally appreciated my very initial reason for not wanting to wait for that projected profit to fall on my lap.
It takes a lot of confidence to just put in your target and let it get hit. It's a luxury that belongs to only those that have spent years and years learning from the market, observing the probabilities of scenarios actually playing out as projected. One day I will get there, and although I would kill to make that day come this week, I know for a fact that that day is sometime in the hopefully not so distant future.
In the mean time, I will stick to my plan, but adopt a flexible approach to profit taking. I need consistent, or more aptly - routined - profits to build my confidence and accumulate my capital to the point where I can afford more aggressive play, and grow from there.
Moving on, below's my idea for today's trading.
ES Hourly
This is still my primary view / hypothesis of how the market is playing out. What's slightly different now is that the head has expanded and the right shoulder has shifted to...er...more right.
In my chart above, the "head" is highlighted in grey.
That's a longer term play (ie. the Inverted Head & Shoulder), and one that requires ES to trade above 876.
For now, I'm seeing a Head & Shoulder in the making (both left shoulder and head are highlighted in blue). The right shoulder does not necessarily have to reach 850 (where the left shoulder is), it's possible that ES could turn back down to support after hitting 842 (fib retracement 50%) or 837 (fib retracement 38.2%).
There's support at the red uptrend line, which should affect the performance of the Measured Move Down (not if ES pulls back to fib 50% though - in which case, the 2nd leg of the MMD should reach the trendline at around the time that it's completed - around 45 points). I'm inclined to think that ES would resume its downward move after hitting 837. If that happens, I'll take either 815 or the trendline support as target.
I'll be using the 5 or 10min chart for basis of my trading plan for today.
In my chart above, the "head" is highlighted in grey.
That's a longer term play (ie. the Inverted Head & Shoulder), and one that requires ES to trade above 876.
For now, I'm seeing a Head & Shoulder in the making (both left shoulder and head are highlighted in blue). The right shoulder does not necessarily have to reach 850 (where the left shoulder is), it's possible that ES could turn back down to support after hitting 842 (fib retracement 50%) or 837 (fib retracement 38.2%).
There's support at the red uptrend line, which should affect the performance of the Measured Move Down (not if ES pulls back to fib 50% though - in which case, the 2nd leg of the MMD should reach the trendline at around the time that it's completed - around 45 points). I'm inclined to think that ES would resume its downward move after hitting 837. If that happens, I'll take either 815 or the trendline support as target.
I'll be using the 5 or 10min chart for basis of my trading plan for today.
4 comments:
Hi Jules, I'm having trouble with the dynamic of Do my rules work? or Are they not working because I'm not following them?
I hope eventually from reading your blog, I can figure out how to understand ES charts as it looks like Dr. Brett really uses the futures market to determine the trend for the day.
Oh, thanks so much for putting me on your blog roll. I'm subscribed to you by google reader and don't actually come to your blog that often but will try to come by more often.
My the way, I usually learn more from trader's LOSING transactions than I do from their winners. The bloggers tend to post 95% winning trades, me included!
Thanks, Charlie, for dropping by. I'm not familiar with the subscription bit. I just know how to put up my posts! LOL!
Re rules: I think rules won't work (ie. you won't follow them) if you don't know - or simply are not convinced by - the reason that you make them in first place. Most times, I find myself wanting to discard all my rules (except averaging my losses, and holding my trades overnight - and they are there coz I don't want to lose an amount that I can't project)
Oh, I post all my losing days. I actually find it immensely therapeutic to do that. LOL! Besides, this is meant to be a journal after all. I need it for future reference, reflections and reviews. So everything has to be in - the good, the bad, the VULGAR :-)
From what I see, you write fairly detailed posts on losing trades yourself :-)
Jules, I assumed the trade that you were not going to talk about because you didn't want to be a bad influence to novices, was a losing one. I should of said this instead: "No need to censor yourself, as I learn from even what you may think as your craziest ideas!".
Subscribing to a blog is easy. In Firefox for example, you can go under Bookmarks, click on Subscribe to this page and then it gives you options to use a RSS Reader to gather the posts into one interface rather than having to go to each individual blog. I do this to read posts on my phone, hopefully to save time.
Yes, Charlie, it was a losing trade. I don't know if you've seen the posts where I kept talking about not having traded my full plan (as in not having stayed in trade til my profit target was hit) - well, I chose yesterday to refuse a 4-point profit and let my trade go auto-pilot. I stayed in a long trade despite mentioning on my posting that I see danger signs. In fact, my blog title was "No more longs". Talking about being rebellious and self-destructive. When ES kept plunging, I was simply calculating if I was losing more than what I earned last week. My heart wasn't racing , there was no cold sweat, and my hands weren't shaking. I passively watched as ES nose-dived more than 12 points away and then I calmly put in a stop and watched my trade got stopped out. I still can't explain what had gotten into me. The only reason I can think of is that I need to experience extreme pain to get over being so afraid of the market. I guess I got really pissed that it has intimidated me for 2 months now. What's really unfortunate is that after paying 1250 bucks for pain, I actually felt nothing. Never felt calmer in fact. The episode has taught me nothing other than the fact that I am more twisted than I imagined. Now you see why I think the post has no value to anyone? :-)
Thanks for telling me about the feature on Firefox. You read stuff on your phone?? Doesn't it kill your eyes?
Post a Comment