Thursday, March 5, 2009

ES 3/5

ES Daily

ES Hourly
Turns out that what's in the green wedge is wave v in an ending diagonal. What I'm seeing now is the forming of abc corrective wave (wave IV). Looks like a Flat to me.

ES 10min
ES 3min
Support at 681.5. That's the way I see it for now. Will see how chart plays out.

Game Plan
Playing by ear. Experimenting with a setup that allows me to not have to run in and out. Would have worked out perfectly yesterday had I not had a short bias. 2nd entry was a disaster just for the simple reason that I failed to honor my stop.

RULES
- Honor all stops
- Be objective at all times and stay with what chart is doing, NOT what it has done and what I think it will do
- Be attentive to what candles are saying, especially on 10mins.
- DOJIs! DOJIs! DOJIs!

I hate D & W.

I hate D & J more though - Mismatch of the millennium.

ES Trades 3/4 - I Am A Bloody Woman

I am pissed with myself.

I keep holding on to THINGS I shouldn't be holding on to.

When will I ever learn to let go?

For today: -USD 375

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

ES 3/4

SPX Weekly
What I'm seeing: the next real support at 595 - 600

SPX Daily
What I'm seeing: we are in wave 3 of corrective wave Z.

What that means to me is that we still have a long way to go in the current downtrend. ADX could always go up to 50. It's done that before anyway.

ES Hourly
What I'm seeing: we are at wave 4 & 5 of wave v (which seems to be taking the form of an ending diagonal) of wave III (see SPX daily above).

Elliot aside, it simply means that I see ES moving up to 700 resistance and reversing to look for bottom at floor of green broadening wedge. Using wave 1 as seed, Fib ext 261.8 at 655 is my target for now.

That's the smaller picture. Don't quite want to think about the bigger one yet.

ES 3min
I'm going with the scenario that ES will trade up to 700, at most to 709, then move down beyond the low for today (681.85). It could trade within that range (681 - 709) during the pre-US market hours, and if it's trading in the upper region of that range by the time the active trading session begins, it's only going to get smacked down (after all, everyone loves to fade a gap, especially a gap up during a time like this). To where? I don't know. 655 I think. Just something for me to work with. Not entirely impossible. In order for us to move up, we need to go down big time first. This inching down everyday is not going to help.

Game Plan & Rules

Will trade the rally up if ES comes back down to white dotted uptrend line (on 3min chart above). Else, will give it a miss until it hits the high for the day. Then I'll be looking to short. I'll go long only if it trades in diagonal triangles (where wave 4 overlaps wave 1).

As usual, NOT going to hold any loss for more than 1 point. Will exit position once reason for getting in is no longer there.

ES Trades 3/3

Not a fantastic day:

1) Lost internet connection thrice - when I was in trade!
2) My cordless mouse kept asking me for new battery, and I couldn't give it one until D came home!
3) Planned my trades, traded my plan, got the direction right, totally stuck to my rules, and yet made no money.
4) My computer crashed on me, and when I managed to get it back up, I've lost the record of today's trades!!

All in all, I had 7 trades today. 4 winning, 3 losing. In sequence, it would be: win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win. Profit (before paying my broker USD 33.60 for 7 round trades): ZERO

Today's the day I realized that there are simply just days when you can do everything right, and not profit from it.

More importantly, I would like to celebrate today as the day that I finally felt absolutely nothing when I exited with small losses more than twice.

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

ES 3/3

SPX & ES Daily


Not looking so good....Index's really looking like it could trend further down...

ES Hourly
Definitely still holding the view that ES is trading down to the floor of the broadening wedge (blue trendlines) with the completion of wave 5....

ES 10min
I'm really not optimistic that ES will trade above pivot (at around 714).
675 (Fib ext 261.8) is where I think it could be going.

Game Plan & Rules

ES 3min

If wave c were to stop at 713.75, forming a double top with end of wave a, I'll look to scalp a 5-wave downtrend.

Again, NOT going to hold any loss for more than 1 point. Will exit position once reason for getting in is no longer there.

Monday, March 2, 2009

ES Trades 3/2

ES 3min
Before 7am EST, all downward movements were motive waves; all upward, corrective. High for the day for now is a mere 2.5 points higher than open and 6 points away from the high of the day's trading range, pivot's nowhere in sight, and newer lows have been reached with no sustainable bottom in sight.

While I'm usually unwilling to sell at such levels, today, I see no reason to just sit and watch. Counting waves have helped tremendously. Yet to figure out why I didn't do that before in scalping. I was probably too busy keeping a lookout for other things such as candlestick patterns, - which I've found rather unreliable in futures trading (except for maybe the stars and hammers, and, occasionally, the engulfing and haramis; hanging men work alright on the 3min).

Still relying largely on the tape to get in and out of trades during pre-US market hours. During active trading hours, the NYSE tick seems a saner choice.

Today's a relatively calm day for me. With the exception of the very first entry (which I held for too long again - doesn't matter that it didn't turn out to be a losing trade, I hate turning scalps to daytrades), I've kept to my rules about not sitting. Chose entries that were likely to go in my direction immediately. Charts were used to identify key S & R levels, market depth gave me a clue as to who is bailing when these levels are not reached/breached.

ES' looking like it could go up on a double bottom at 711.25 if it were to visit that level again before testing the high of day at 733.75.

Calling it a day.

For today: USD 200

Seabloke, Pilot, Me & Frankenstein

Seabloke dropped by today with Pilot (by the way, Pilot is really a pilot. A very dashing and mysterious man....My lucky future sister-in-law....) and lunch.

I went about setting up the table rather absent-mindedly, as my mind was on my charts, as always.

Finally when we were all seated and ready to dig in, Pilot said this AGAIN (the very first thing he said when I answered the door, but I was too distracted to pay any attention...):

"Thomas Edison did NOT invent the electric light bulb."

Sea: So who did?

Me: Frankenstein

Sea:????????

Pilot: An employee of Edison did. He was not given any credit for it.

Me: Ya, and his name is Frankenstein.

Sea: Seriously guys, so Thomas Edison wasn't the one who invented the electric light bulb?

Me: No, it was Frankenstein. The poor guy was struck by lightning in the process, turned green, and wasn't given any credit.

Pilot: By the way, do you guys know that the 108 Heroes of Liang Shan were actually terrorists?

Sea & Me: ???????

Me: What has that got to do with Frankenstein?

Pilot: I can't believe that people buy the story of 108 GOOD men. There's only 1 man that I'd call good and he's dead: Gandhi.

Sea: And Nelson Mandela

Me: But he's not dead yet.

Sea: ?????!!!!!

Sea: So, Pilot, from where did you find out that Thomas Edison was not the inventor of the light bulb?

Pilot: People talk. His employees have children and grandchildren who started talking.

Me: Well, so the man who was supposed to invent the telephone didn't actually invent the telephone, and now the man who was supposed to invent the light bulb didn't actually invent the light bulb...hmmm....so who was the poor fella who got struck by lightning??

Pilot: Wait, let me finish the story of the 108 terrorists.

Sea:???????????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sea insisted that I put this on my blog. I had no idea why, until she text me a while ago.

Sea: I still cannot stop reeling over Frankenstein.

Me: Why leh? He did invent the lightbulb mah.....No meh??

Sea: Yah Frankenstein did...

Me: Then why you laugh?

Sea: Hahahahahahahaha!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAHHHHHAAAAAHA!!!!!!

Sea again: I don't know why people find their siblings boring and rather go in search of friends. I cannot find anyone more hilarious than my siblings!

Ok, Sea, happy now? You just can't write your own diary can you? You better have this saved and backed up....

Oh, and I love you very,very,very much too!

But I'm not chipping in for your dinning table.

I'm preparing my own gift. Yes, I suffer from low self-esteem and just have to make a mark. LOL!!!!

ES 3/2

SPX Weekly
SPX Daily
ES Hourly

SPX weekly: Next level of support at 600

SPX Daily: We seem to be in wave 3 now...

ES Hourly:
We seem to be in wave 3 of an extended wave 3 of the higher degree (volume trend is NOT contradicting that)....ES could test low at floor of channel (in pink), bounce off from there, reverse back down at 729.5, then make its way to the floor of the broadening wedge (in blue), completing wave 5. By then, we should be at around 600, which is about Fib 261.8 from price peak at 1440.

Game Plan & Rules

ES 3min
ES just broke out of triangle. Looks like a wave 2 to me. I'm not doing anything until a temporary low has been formed ie. completion of wave 3. Will probably trade wave 4 up to the base of the triangle (which will be resistance for now) if wave 3 is substantially longer than what I'm actually seeing now. Definitely not making any attempts to call a bottom again. It's more likely that I'll look to sell short to end of wave 3 from resistance. Will see.

I'm hypothesizing that the low is going to be the completion of the 2nd leg of a measured move down...could be 714 - 716, or a perfect 700....

Anyway, it looks quite unlikely to me that we will get anywhere near pivot at 740 today . But the market has been doing strange things, so I'll be prepared for anything.

Given that we actually traded away from pivot on Friday, if the same scenario were to unfold today, it would be very telling of a market that's gone quite psycho.

What that means to me is that I would totally pass up risky entries. No entering on the assumption that price will make a dash for a particular level. Definitely no holding of any positions for more than 10 mins. No sitting on loss of more than 0.75 point for pre-market entries. If trade is not going in the desired direction, get out and wait for next setup. Sitting is a plain waste of time. Premarket gives plenty of opportunities to bail at breakeven or very minimal damage within mins.

Friday, February 27, 2009

ES Trades 2/27 - What I Really, Really Want


Not a great day. D was home on sick leave, and we watched a really touching movie - while I was scalping.

It was kind of funny, coz at one point, I was so busy watching my charts and tape, D had to help stop my timer (yes, I had to resort to using a timer to make sure I don't overstay, or run too fast).

It was really not professional. I wasn't focused, and when I wanted to go in short after losing nearly 2 points, D interrupted and said I needed a break badly. I was really, really upset, coz I'm a scalper -you don't interrupt a scalper. When the tape's running, and I see the chance to get in, I'll have to get in. No hesitation, no waiting to see what happens next.

Anyway, I got distracted, missed the tempo, and got in just in time to be run over by a stampede of petrified bears. Ended up sitting on my position longer than I planned to, and had to get out at breakeven when it was time to take Alberto to the vet.

When I got out, D gave me a nice long hug. I must look really tensed when I work. D seemed shocked to see how I really don't get out of my chair from 9 in the morning til 7 in the evening unless there's an emergency (e.g when my cats are hungry, and when HE is hungry, etc). I told him that's how I got to feel ES' beat - I just stare at it day after day and unless I have an assigment that takes me out of the house, I'm with it from the moment I get out of bed to the time I get back in.

Something else about how I trade. And that is that I'm convinced that holding's just not my style. Maybe someday I'll hold a 5-point winner. But that's not what I'm in for for now.

I don't like to have to wait for anything - if I want something, I must have it NOW.

It's good that there isn't a whole lot of things that I really want. Most times, all I really, really want, is someone that I can really talk to, someone who really knows me, and yet is able to love me for who I really am.

The other thing that I really, really, really want, is for all the living things I love to be cloned.

ES 2/27

ES Hourly
Price fallen back into Descending Broadening Wedge (blue trendlines) after having broken out. If support at 750 holds, ES should break out of wedge again and aim for 800. What I'm feeling is that it will be a lot more assuring if it goes down to test 739.75 first. That should happen if it's stopped by resistance at 760.
ES 10min
Suport at 750, Resistance at 760. Looks likely to me that a Wash and Rinse pattern could develope from here. Which means ES should test 750 after going up to 760. Confirmation of pattern is the breaking above of 760. Using Fib ext (not shown here), target of 161.8% is around 779. Makes sense. Am definitely looking forward to a miracle that will push ES right through 800.
ES 3min
Price rejecting 750 for now. Looks like 760 will be the highest it's going before the start of the US trading hours. That's also the pivot for now, and less than 1 point below yesterday's low. Which should make it tough to pierce.

Game Plan & Rules
I'm going to take a shot at holding my scalps longer once I'm in profit. WILL give trades 10 mins to work. If it doesn't, I exit, no matter what. If it works out, will give it another 20 - 30 mins to let profits run.

In the absence of an apparently great setup, I'll do my usual: scalp. A 2-point loss is the maximum that I'll take if momentum turns against me once I enter.

Will mainly be shorting at resistance, and buying at support. Entering only when price has closed on the desired side. Whenever the subsequent close is on the wrong side, I'm out.

As usual, I'm not looking to buy an upward breakout. Exception is if I had sold short at resistance, and price broke above it instead. 2 closes above is a must for me to go long in this case. A bullish pattern like a tight flag would give me no reason at all to avoid taking such a trade.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

ES Trades 2/25

ES 3min
Clumsy day.

Started out pretty alright - took a 1 point profit (Shorted ES when indicators were all screaming oversold. I love doing that coz there's a level I see that it wanted to go, and ES being ES will get there by hook or by crook. Since I'm just scalping for 2 points at most most of the time, I don't actually need the "home run" type of setup).

2nd trade was where I fumbled. Went long at where I thought was the low for the day. Though bottom picking has never been my department, I still do it once in a blue moon with good reasons - for this particular trade, I went long because it was at the base of a channel. I did say that I'll only buy from bases of channels (so that I won't buy a breakout!). In retrospect, that was a really lousy reason. Firstly, that was a downward sloping channel, and ES has been coming down rather steeply. Secondly - and this is classic - I widened my channel to accommodate prices that had fallen beneath the original channel. And then I thought to myself, "There you go, base of channel. Buy!" Whenever I take a shot at being creative, nothing good comes out of it. But I was right about the bottom. It was the bottom, and ES did trade all the way back up to the ceiling of the channel and broke above. I didn't profit from it coz I bolted too fast. So you can be right and still not make money. And that's when you have no basis for taking a stance. Enter a trade without conviction, and half the battle is lost. I scratched the trade - losing 0.25 point.

3rd trade: More stupid than the 2nd. I bought again after getting out of my second, for what, I really don't know. Scratched again for the same reason: I don't trust my own call. I didn't even want to pay to see if I COULD be right. Exited at breakeven.

4th trade: I really don't know if I'm just dumb, or plain stubborn, or just greedy. Maybe I'm all of these. I went long AGAIN! Made 0.5 point this time. I was finally happy, and ended my buying spree (for that move up)

5th and 6th trade: Sold short when ES formed what looked a tad like a double-top right beneath the ceiling of the channel. ES broke above it, and I waited to see if it's a fake breakout. Still didn't want to get out after price actually closed above it. When little dojis started to form - 4 of them - and tape's telling a consistent bullish story, I knew I was going against traffic. Got out of my short position, and went in long at where I covered. Lost 1.25 point covering. But made 2 points on my long.

7th, 8th and 9th trades: Finally felt like I knew what I was doing. Went long on the assumption that ES will test day's high, and sold short when it didn't get anywhere near it. Bought hammers and sold mountains. The tape is still the only thing I use to gauge exactly where and when I enter and exit.

I definitely prefer yesterday's choppiness.

ES looks like it's going to break out of its 762 - 772 range, with a huge mountain sitting above it now. First leg of measured move down is made up of all bearish candles on both 3min and 10min charts. The high of the day is only 3 points from open. So, I'm not optimistic that 762 support will hold.

Am calling it a day. No more trading, just watching.

For today: USD 200

ES 2/25

ES Hourly

Still playing a breakout from the broadening wedge (blue trendlines).

Taking the start of the wash and rinse pattern (within the broadening wedge) as the seed, target is Fib ext 161.8% (807). Performance (that is, if ES manages to break out) would of course be affected by 800 resistance.

If ES fails to break above the wedge, and trades back down towards the base of the wedge, I'll watch for support at Fib 38.2% (around 755), and then at around 740.

GAME PLAN
Scalp within the zone of 755 - 775.

Be prepared for ES to trade back towards the floor of the broadening wedge.

Go long from base of channels (preferred). When trading breakouts, be prepared for it to fail and exit immediately when that happens.

(On ES 10min) Sell short only from KC's centreline - price should be forming a lower peak than the first one that enters the KC. Do NOT sell on the first close of price below KC's upper band. Watch stochastics - look for downward hook at 50 after it's come up from oversold; look for lower peak to form at overbought and at 50.

RULES
Scalping:
Get out of any open positions once the tape shows that the reason for getting in is no longer there

Daytrades:
Get out ONCE price closes above or below support & resistance

ES Trades 2/24 - Part 2 & Done For The Day


ES 3min

3min chart's great. I pay attention to my 10min and hourly still, especially the 10min. Not so much the 1min now since my eyes are on the tape all the time. 3min chart's key levels facilitate tape reading. My most preferred timeframe for now.

Table below shows all my trades for today. I couldn't help put in 2 last minute trades. I actually like the choppy trend today. ES's just forming mountains after mountains. You can buy, you can sell. You know when it's going to test the previous high, and it plunges without fail after breaking a neckline. I watched for nearly 3 hours after US market open, fighting the urge to get in.

Finally, I found my courage to ask D (who's now my personal coach and his only job is to kick my ass) if I could do just one quick scalp (when he was busy preparing for his presentation), he nodded his head absent-mindedly. Then I asked again if I could do another, and he nodded (apparently getting a little aggitated at being interrupted).

Hur Hur...Yes, I'm scheming.

Am really working towards consistent daily results. Targeting to increase contract size in Sept. Number of contracts will depend on how crazy market is then. If it's the normal crazy (like now), I'm happy to start with 2 to 3 contracts.

Total for today: USD 287

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

ES Trades 2/24

ES 3min

752.5 - Fri's Low
743.25 - Today's Low

Support for now - 749.75 (doesn't look like it's going to hold for much longer)
Resistance for now - 755.5

I can't decide if I should treat the trades below as winning or scratched trades. If I treat them as scratched (I did scratch them coz setups were just not working out - at least not as quickly as I expected them to), I can continue to trade without feeling like I've broken one of the 1000 rules I have.

I'm finally seeing a very nice HS setup to short all the way to 745, and D just text to say I should just call it a winning day....

This has been a daily battle for me for 3 months now. Some days I think I could tell the difference between overtrading, and the scratching of trades from lousy setups while waiting for the good ones to show; most days I need a very sensible and rational D to point out that the setups good enough for my trading style are virtually extinct now.

Am still working on developing a taste for ES' waltzing up, down and sideways on my chart.

ES 2/24

ES Hourly

If ES doesn't get above 750 as well as yesterday's low at 752.5, it's likely to form the 2nd leg of a Measured Move Down. Floor of the broadening formation (blue downtrend line) will be where I'll look out for support until I see a horizontal support. From where it is now, ES is likely to go up to test 748 first, then 752.5 & 757.5. I'm not going to even make a wild guess as to where it'll go after that.

Fed giving their semiannual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee today (tues) and the House Financial Services Committee tmrw (Wed).


GAME PLAN
Setup that I've been using earlier today:
ES 3min & 10min
Scalp within the zone of 740 - 750.

Be prepared for ES to trade to the floor of the Broadening Formation on ES Hourly (mentioned above).

(On ES 10min) Sell short only from KC's centreline - price should be forming a lower peak than the first one that enters the KC. Do NOT sell on the first close of price below KC's upper band. Watch stochastics - look for downward hook at 50 after it's come up from oversold; look for lower peak to form at overbought and at 50.

RULES
Scalping:
Get out of any open positions once the tape shows that the reason for getting in is no longer there

Daytrades:
Get out ONCE price closes above or below support & resistance


ES Trades 2/23 & Quiz


I'm beat. Haven't the time to plan my trades today. Was multi-tasking, and feeling SLEEPY throughout.

Not particularly thrilled with the PnL, but what I'm working towards is consistency. So, I'll make an effort to feel happy...

My apologies to all who have left comments and written emails - firefox kept crashing on me so I decided to stay offline for a while before I go nuts.

Re quiz:
Flip has the correct answer. I wonder if he has a 5-year-old niece/nephew :-) Do visit his blog (which he started in Jan).

Ed: First person to respond again - thank you so much :-) You're an engineer I remember? Engineers like "diagonals" I notice :-P

Panda: I love your Panda pictures more! Please give some Panda love to Flip too (thanks for checking out Ed's blog - big hug!)

Jane: will most definitely check out your trading blog (the dishes on your other blog look really yummy - your boyfriend's a lucky man!)! It will be the first thing I'll do when I get up a few hours from now :-)
Update: I checked out your blog, Jane. You're the first couple team I've come across! Very sweet! :-) Is the bear with the middle finger you or MVW? ;-) I'll be visiting :-)

Don: Your comments always take a little more time to decipher....exactly like Lonely's and Andrew's LOL! I'll respond tmrw k?

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Eye On The Ball (Part 1) - Eureka & A Simple Quiz


(Scroll right to the end of this post if you want to check out the quiz first)


I usually TRY not to get all philosophical when it comes to trading - coz whenever I do, a certain SOMEONE (yes, D, that's you) makes fun of me. Well, he got his last laugh again yesterday, but that's ok, coz I got my "Ah-Ha" moment!

Background
Seabloke's 5-year-old twins were at mine yesterday, and had nothing much to play with (except my cats - but they took cover way before the girls could get to them- and D, who was beat and had fallen into a deep slumber). At wit's end, I brought out the only "toy" I had - my Wii games - hoping that Twins would be impressed enough to want to visit me again.

I got more than I asked for - AS ALWAYS. Twins beat me hands down in the only game on the list that I've NEVER played: Bowling. These girls are PROS - they kept getting strikes, quite clearly without much effort. Me, I had to be shown how to use the controls! When the simple demo didn't work (I just couldn't time the release of the ball), Twins grabbed my hand to keep my finger on the button, and when I was supposed to release it, they gave me a verbal command to let go. It worked. But once left on my own (without their hands on mine), I couldn't send the ball out. Twins were pretty pitiless after that. They began to laugh hysterically each time I failed to get the ball out, coz they were hitting double, triple, quadriple strikes!

The younger one declared that she was going to tell mummy about it.

"Oh yes you should definitely tell her how well you played! She'll be so proud! But she doesn't have to know that I suck, agreed?"

"I'm telling mummy you suck!! Hahahahahahaha!!!!"

Please, let no one tell me, EVER, that kids are innocuous. Face it, we are all born evil. Kindness is learned - in BABY STEPS.

When Seabloke came to collect twins, I told her what happened, gave her 3 minutes to finish laughing, and asked her where twins learn to bowl like this.

She said they were naturals. She still couldn't figure out how they could get a strike the first time they played the game and go on to consistently hit strikes and spares, when she could barely keep the ball from falling into the gutter.

And then they left. Leaving me feeling somewhat disturbed. Unsolved mysteries always stay with me for a while.

Since D was still in dreamland, I didn't want to do any work on my computer (the typing wakes him up easily). So I went back to explore that annoying bowling game. Took me a while to finally suceed at releasing the ball. I started bowling over 6 to 7 pins in the first shots, and noticed that I kept missing those on the left.

It was a strange intuition that got me to shift my starting position from the centre (which was the default position, and from where twins send their balls) to the EXTREME left. By extreme, I mean like just inches away from the gutter. I started knocking down more pins. But still missing pins on the left, and, of course, still no strike.

Then I remembered how when I was learning to play tennis, that I was taught to first find my pivot, and then after that it's always just about FOCUSING ON THE BALL.

So I forced my eyes and brain to shift their attention from the pins to the ball. It was a challenge. What happened was that the more I didn't want to be distracted, the more readily distracted I became. It got to the point where I was actually distracted by the irritating characters "playing" on the adjacent lanes!!!(???).

Stubborn as hell, I continued to play until I could finally block out everything else except the ball.

I began to be able to keep my eyes on the ball, tracking it as it rolled off my hand onto the lane...And that was when I noticed for the first time its veering off the middle of the lane to the RIGHT just before it hit the pins.

I repeated the drill over and over, and each time, the ball would veer off to the right, hit the middle pin, and I would get my full strike! I was getting 4 strikes in a row consistently after that. Until fatigue set in, that is. And when Alberto started asking for dinner to be served.

So I took a short break, and went back to the game. And I started getting my strikes again. The spares were great too.

I felt so ready to take on Twins next Saturday.

Seabloke, I suggest you start shopping around for a new toy, coz once I beat them, they won't want to bowl again! >:-)

Now, what I had really wanted to talk about, or document rather, was that "Ah-ha" moment that I mentioned right at the beginning of this post....

But, I'm not quite done with bowling and Twins yet.

Yes I'm evil.

It runs in the family.

So, it was when I finally succeeded in replicating Twin's results that it dawned on me that the girls's interest weren't in the pins!

Sure they LOVE getting strikes, but they weren't WORKING for or towards that.

They were just PLAYING (which is about the only thing that kids love anyway, I reckon/remember). Strikes were simply a by-product ie. they were not their GOAL to begin with.

They just wanted to play, and all they care about was THE BALL!

Totally explains why the elder one insisted on a PINK ball (and I remember that only coz I was so afraid that she was going to cry when I simply didn't know how to change the ball from blue to pink!). She cared about the color of the ball coz the ball was the only thing she was looking at, and it wasn't in her favorite color!

And the reason I couldn't understand at first why the color of the ball even matter is this: all I was looking at were the pins, and all I cared about was the number of pins that I was going to knock down! When it comes to playing a serious game, I sure was not as serious as Twins.

There's another thing about the girls that still stumps me, and it's how the older twin was able to miss exactly the same pins that I missed when she played after me - 4 consecutive times!! Seabloke witnessed it - she stayed to watch us play for a while before she took the girls home. When V gave that mischievious grin, Seabloke and I looked at each other for a few seconds, then shrugged our shoulders as if to say "well, it's not like we're not used to being spooked". But seriously, I'm spooked.

The only logical explanation I can come up with is that kids' minds are probably a lot more creative, a lot less cluttered than those of adults. They can visualize bowling over all the pins and make it happen by virtue of the fact that they haven't learned how to doubt themselves. Self-doubt and cynicism are definitely products of socialization. As we grow up, we somehow lose the ability to imagine possibilities (sure explains why visionaries are few and far between).

Life experiences have a way of impeding our progress - unless we are aware of how they're impacting us in terms of how we view life in general, how we make life's decisions - both big and small - and of the angle we take when confronted by problems and challenges.

I've always liked this story I read in a book I picked up many years ago. Extracted from the book "Brain Dancing" by Dilip Mukerjea:

Some years ago, a heavily laden truck became lodged under an overpass. For several hours, police had been endeavouring to get it unstruck. The crowd that had gathered offered all sorts of suggestions. "Saw off the top of the truck," one old man bellowed, only half-joking. "The bridge will have to be dismantled," said another. "That bay in there's too tight."

Naturally, these solutions did not contain a feasible solution. But alternatives were not forthcoming and the situation appeared to be hopeless.

Eventually, having witnessed the circus for some time, a little boy stepped forward with his idea. "Why don't you let the air out of the tyres?" he asked.

Eureka! It was obvious! But it needed a childlike attitude to realize the obvious. By not getting stuck at the top end of the truck, the mind was free to look at the opposite end, where in fact, the solution lay awaiting.

Children - we have so much to learn from them.

The Simple Quiz for 5-6 Year Olds That The Financial Controller Couldn't Solve
A very good friend of D's had dinner with us a couple of years back while he was here for a business conference. I was my usual quiet self, my mind occupied with something else, giving occasional nods just to give the impression that I was actually interested in the conversation that was going on. And then, the friend shared something which REALLY caught my interest. He told us about this quiz that was given to pre-elementary school kids to qualify them for entry into a very prestigious school in HK.

Many of these children were able to solve the "problem" within minutes. One of them went home to challenge his dad on the quiz. The father, a highly educated man I guess, couldn't figure it out. Disturbed, he took the quiz to his office to see if he was the only adult who couldn't solve a kid's problem. All those who were college graduates couldn't solve it. Those with finance and mathematics background were particularly alarmed. They worked on the quiz for DAYS before giving up. They were dumbfounded when given the answer. It was so simple it absolutely takes a child's eyes to SEE the clue.

Just for the fun of it - yes I'm in the mood for fun these days - I'm going to leave the quiz here for anyone who wants to take a shot at solving it. I'm only giving 4 lines for now - but will give more until someone gets it. If anyone's able to give me the line that follows the last one that's provided below, she/he wins (The prize: An automatic ego-booster) :

12
1112
3112
132112

Saturday, February 21, 2009

ES Trades 2/20 - Jules Is A Pig!

Having problem uploading images again.

I had 6 trades today. 5 winning and 1 losing. Profit: USD 87.

Stuck to my RULES for 4 trades, totally ignore them for 2. For both trades that I broke my rules, I had to hold them for more than an hour. For one I lost 2.25 points, for the other I made 0.75 point.

For the 4 "good" trades, I made 0.75, 1.00, 1.00, 0.50 points respectively

I wouldn't call this a good day. But it's definitely one that I need to go through to know that I AM A PIG!

I HATE ME!

Friday, February 20, 2009

ES 2/20 - Daily Trading Plan

ES 10min
ES looking very much like it could land on the base of the broadening formation (blue trendlines). Looking for a bounce there (price touching base for the 3rd time has a high chance of going back up to the ceiling where price will either reverse or break out. Whereever that level is, 800 remains the ultimate resistance for now. I will be watching out for a partial rise at around 785. If it happens, it could very well drive ES out of the formation on the downside to revisit 739.

GAME PLAN
Wait for price to touch base of Broadening Bottom. Look to buy only after a price low (valley) has formed between the lower band and centreline of the Keltner channel (KC). Buy the next valley (should be a HIGHER valley of course). Exit targets to be within the 772 - 800 zone.

Go long only from base of channels; do NOT buy a breakout for now.

Sell short only from KC's centreline - price should be forming a lower peak than the one before. Do NOT sell on the first close of price below KC's upper band. Watch stochastics - look for downward hook at 50 after it's come up from oversold; look for lower peak to form at overbought.
RULES
Scalping:
Get out of any open positions once the tape shows that the reason for getting in is no longer there
Daytrades:
Get out ONCE price closes above or below support & resistance

My plan is based solely on my charts and the tape, and reports like this has little to no bearing on my trading decisions.

Thursday, February 19, 2009

ES Trades 2/19

ES 10min & Hourly
ES barely got out of congestion zone . It probably will break out later today, but I'm staying out.

Am still not use to ES' strange "tango" style moves.

I miss TF's death drops and crazy run-ups.

For today: USD 212