SPX Daily
Pipe Bottom on Nov 20 and 21 failed to send index back up to the point from where it dropped (about 1008, indicated by pink dotted line), and has formed what looks like the mirror image of a "J" flipped up (chartists call this the "
Inverted Scallop") instead.
The low of Friday's session is about 50% of the upward move from the pipe bottom to the previous high of around 896. Assuming that SPX were to continue to climb from this point on, an Inverted Scallop COULD send it all the way to around 1060.
Given that the sentiments aren't generally bullish, and taking into account overhead resistance (from downsloping trendline), it pays to play conservative. A reasonable target would be around 970.
A successful Inverted Scallop pattern could retrace to fib 61.8%, so, if I were trading based on this pattern, I would place a stop slightly below fib 61.8%.
DOW Daily
DOW's daily chart is looking just as cheery.
First, we have a Pipe Bottom too; second, that mess we're seeing forming now looks like some sort of a
Diamond Bottom; third, the 2 bottoms when squeezed look like an
Adam & Adam Bottom to me...
In a nutshell, the DOW looks like it wants to go up.
Like the SPX, its pipe bottom has somewhat failed and what has formed is an Inverted Scallop. So, at least in the very short-term, it's likely that DOW could climb up to 10,252, or conservatively, 9500. Overhead resistance after 9500 is around 9650.
DOW Weekly
Not certain if I should make a big hoo-ha over the Oct
marabuzo candle and
bullish engulfing pattern that's formed given that both are not first level reversal patterns.
However if we're not looking for a reversal (just being realistic), these patterns SHOULD give us a decent pullback to around 10,300.
But then again, it's irrational to ask the market for what's reasonable. As long as we're not in a confirmed uptrend (even if it's just a short-term one), it's best to take for granted that the market will continue to go down. Some wise trader once said that
you can only be wrong ONCE when you go with the trend, and that's when the trend REVERSES. So, I would either go with the trend, or be very conservative with positions and targets when going against it.
XLF Daily
If XLF can clear its overhead resistance at 12.87, the formation COULD very likely send it up to 16.65.
My calculation is actually 17, but with that kind of resistance on top, I'm going to say it's not even going to make it to 15 on its first attempt up.
That said, I would keep an eye on DOW and SPX. If I were to go long, my stop's going to be far below at a point that's slightly below fib retracement 61.8% of the move up from 8.67.
GS Daily
GS looks like it could go up to around 96 - 97, but the more probable scenario is that it would be stopped by the downsloping trendline. A conservative target would be around 86.
Again, if I were to go long on GS, I would place my stop below fib retracement level of 61.8%.
TF Hourly
Tripple Bottom and
Ascending Triangle. Looks like TF COULD break above blue resistance, especially if Monday sees a follow through on Friday's mid-day rally.
TF Daily
For a confirmed reversal, TF will have to break above 560. If the outlook for next week's good, TF should get there by next week. That's a big IF of course. As the market goes about searching for a bottom, I'm not going to swing anything for now. Scalping or daytrading is still my preferred play.
