SPX Weekly (1994 -2009)
SPX Weekly (Aug 2008 - Feb 13 2009)
I see:- Price breaking and closing above trendline resistance the week before
- Price subsequently throwing back to yellow downtrend line and closing below it
- An Outside Bar
- A failed breakout above 1st triangle
- A failed pull back after price broke below 2nd triangle
- A partial rise on the 3rd triangle
SPX Daily
I see:- A hammer (thurs) which didn't manage to drive price up to close above it the following day
- An evening star pattern that couldn't push price to close below trendline support
SPX Hourly
I see:- Price closed below 827 support, and looking like it's going for trendline support
- A horizontal EMA200
I see:- A descending broadening formation, and price going for base of formation
- Trendline as well as 818 support right about where price should touch base of formation should it get there
SPX 10min
I see:- An unconfirmed double top
- Trendline supports
Where I am going with this, I have no idea.
I'm stumped by what I'm seeing.
If you would like to share your view on where we MIGHT BE heading - just for the fun of it - please do so via the comment section. You stand a chance to receive a book from me (as far as I know, it's not hit the shelf yet).
I'm serious. Really.
The 300-page book's authored by a hedge fund manager (with 20 over years of experience) and talks about practices and strategies adopted by the industry that maybe some of you will be very curious to know.
I've gone over half the book in under an hour. So, it's an easy read. Author's rather child-like, and tells an interesting story. That's all I can say for now. Maybe the gem is in the remaining 150 pages...
I'm allowed to give out 2 copies of the ebook. So if you're not among those who have already been approached by the publisher, and are interested to take a look at the book, please email me. If no one responds to my dumb contest, I'd be happy to let you have the book. It will be great if you can give me your comments - if any - after you've finished the book. And you are most definitely welcome to post your review in my comment section if you choose to do so.
12 comments:
Hi Jules,
Thanks for the frequent analysis. I have been searching for a website like this for awhile as this is one way to accelerate my learning as a beginner. My background is a total 3.7k loss over past 5 months in stocks which ignited my quest to beat the market. I have been reading, and planning to learn/trade e-minis. With my warning noted, here is my analysis:
Strong monthly downtrend is meeting strong bottom support. Also, the converging triangle makes it hard to decide the direction as well. Based on the recent daily lows not triggerring a bullish take off like in november makes me think the overall trend is still bearish until it hits a low that is worthy of trend reversal.
Ed
Edit: Oil and gold will remain under pressure -- not depressed.
Ok, i'll try my luck. I think the indexes is heading towards the November lows within the next 1- 2 weeks. I believe it will break the lows before any rally attempt.
I posted this earlier but I guess it got lost in internet land...
Doesn't that weekly chart from 1994 to now look like a head and shoulders pattern? And with the fundamentals the economy so bad, I think most markets have a big leg still to go down.
Lonely:
If you're writing a book, I'm buying, even if you're selling only hard-covers! :-)
It's interesting you mentioned that you wrote in Nov that you would be long term bullish when DOW got above 7500, coz in Nov, I said I would be a long term seller if DOW got below 7445 (http://juzjules.blogspot.com/2008/11/where-are-you-going-dow.html). Ha!
Your response's a gem. I'm putting it on my front page - pardon me for not asking for your permission first (what's new? LOL!). I'm with you on each and every point you made - yes, including your Knotty Warhol bit :-) I'm impressed you know so much about my part of the world :-)
Charlie:
Sorry about your comment that got lost...I've already switched off moderation for sometime now, and I'm clueless as to what the problem could be...
Re HS - yup, that was what I saw in Nov last year and I did a very brief write up here: http://juzjules.blogspot.com/2008/11/where-are-you-going-dow.html
And I definitely think that the "really, really bad" scenario would happen some time in the future - at exactly the time when the herd thinks that the worst is over....
Sage,
I change my mind pretty frequently about where market's going. In Nov, I thought we'll go up and then come down. And now that we are back down,I'm thinking we could go back up again, form a triple top, then PLUNGE! :-)
Why do I get the urge to instigate you into side-betting all the time? LOL!
Ed,
Why do you want to beat the market? Market's your friend! LOL!
I never really understand why anyone would want to "beat the market", unless he/she is a mutual fund manager. Even the hedge fund managers don't aspire to beat the market. They aim a lot higher! LOL!
Experience tells me that the first thing you have to beat is actually yourself :-)
Thanks for sharing your view. It's along the line of what most of us are thinking.
So, you're no fun.
I'm kidding :-)
"Experience tells me that the first thing you have to beat is actually yourself :-)"
That's a gem. =D Might sound cliche, or something, but it's the truth!
CP:
Cliched?? Who else said it??? Plagiarism is rampant these days, isn't it? :-P
Ed:
You get the book. A gift for a new blogger :-) Pl let me have your email address (can't find it on your blog) for me to forward to the publisher.
Lonely:
You've written a thesis, and I won't be able to sleep tonight if I don't tell you now that the 2nd copy's yours :-)
I'll announce this on a separate post tomorrow.
And Lonely, I'm posting your thesis along with the result. :-)
Wow thanks for the book, I feel like a winner. :) I've emailed you my email, and also added to my blog profile.
The reason why I want to beat the market is because the market is not my friend yet, since it took my money. But I guess you're right, I need to beat myself. I'm planning to practice a mechanical discipline approach with paper trading. Hope I can find something that wins statistically, and beat my emotions at least during the trade.
I also think the market will go back up again as I feel people were all hitting themselves for not entering during november lows. I'm feeling some whipsaw between DOW 7500 to 7800, then when it hits 7300 a big rally to 8300. For now, I can't decide if there will be a plunge yet, because I believe in Obama.
Thanks again Jules for the book, and thanks lonely for the mini-book.
Yeeeeehaaaaawwww!!!!
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