ES Trades 2/25

ES 3min

Clumsy day.

Started out pretty alright - took a 1 point profit (Shorted ES when indicators were all screaming oversold. I love doing that coz there's a level I see that it wanted to go, and ES being ES will get there by hook or by crook. Since I'm just scalping for 2 points at most most of the time, I don't actually need the "home run" type of setup).

2nd trade was where I fumbled. Went long at where I thought was the low for the day. Though bottom picking has never been my department, I still do it once in a blue moon with good reasons - for this particular trade, I went long because it was at the base of a channel. I did say that I'll only buy from bases of channels (so that I won't buy a breakout!). In retrospect, that was a really lousy reason. Firstly, that was a downward sloping channel, and ES has been coming down rather steeply. Secondly - and this is classic - I widened my channel to accommodate prices that had fallen beneath the original channel. And then I thought to myself, "There you go, base of channel. Buy!" Whenever I take a shot at being creative, nothing good comes out of it. But I was right about the bottom. It was the bottom, and ES did trade all the way back up to the ceiling of the channel and broke above. I didn't profit from it coz I bolted too fast. So you can be right and still not make money. And that's when you have no basis for taking a stance. Enter a trade without conviction, and half the battle is lost. I scratched the trade - losing 0.25 point.

3rd trade: More stupid than the 2nd. I bought again after getting out of my second, for what, I really don't know. Scratched again for the same reason: I don't trust my own call. I didn't even want to pay to see if I COULD be right. Exited at breakeven.

4th trade: I really don't know if I'm just dumb, or plain stubborn, or just greedy. Maybe I'm all of these. I went long AGAIN! Made 0.5 point this time. I was finally happy, and ended my buying spree (for that move up)

5th and 6th trade: Sold short when ES formed what looked a tad like a double-top right beneath the ceiling of the channel. ES broke above it, and I waited to see if it's a fake breakout. Still didn't want to get out after price actually closed above it. When little dojis started to form - 4 of them - and tape's telling a consistent bullish story, I knew I was going against traffic. Got out of my short position, and went in long at where I covered. Lost 1.25 point covering. But made 2 points on my long.

7th, 8th and 9th trades: Finally felt like I knew what I was doing. Went long on the assumption that ES will test day's high, and sold short when it didn't get anywhere near it. Bought hammers and sold mountains. The tape is still the only thing I use to gauge exactly where and when I enter and exit.

I definitely prefer yesterday's choppiness.

ES looks like it's going to break out of its 762 - 772 range, with a huge mountain sitting above it now. First leg of measured move down is made up of all bearish candles on both 3min and 10min charts. The high of the day is only 3 points from open. So, I'm not optimistic that 762 support will hold.

Am calling it a day. No more trading, just watching.

For today: USD 200