Eur Futures (6E) Trades 4/6 & Pissed With IB

6E 5min

Plan for the day was to short any failed "W" patterns.

1st short entry was at 1.3565 (with a mental stop at 1.3572 should failed "w" fail...). Price pierced 1.3572 resistance just a minute later (totally not what I expected for a failed pattern). Bailed at 1.3573 before candle even closed. Can't sit and watch a "W" take off!

Went in short again at 1.3568 on candle that opened below 1.3572 support and below the close of the inside bar before it. Target was support at 1.3524 or Fib ext 161.8. I took the latter. Simply coz price was springing back up from candle's low, threatening to close above 161.8. A hammer at the low of a short-term downtrend, especially one with its body sitting on a fib target is not what I want to see when I'm selling. Covered at 1.3536, right about where fib ext 161.8 is.

Will either enter short again on a decent pullback on the 5min, or take a break and come back 2 hours later to see what's developed then.

6E 15min

I need the 15min predominantly to monitor candlestick patterns and S & R levels. I don't base my entry or exit on it. I ignore the MACD. But it's good to see it continuing to go down in bearish crossover when I'm in a short position.

I'm pissed with IB (right, just after I sang its praises hours ago). Had entered 2 contracts for the above trades, but was warned that it exceeded my margin (I always keep only 12k in my futures trading account, most of the funds were transferred to D's TOXIC ASSETS swing/investment account (D swing-trades/invests in non-leveraged instruments) - which is finally making money - and the revised margin requirement for pre/post market hours for 6E is now slightly above 6k, while that for the active trading hours remains at 3k). Totally jeopardized my strategy of entering and exiting on 2 contracts at the beginning of a trend, and reducing to entering and exiting on 1 contract when trading a pull/throw back.

What that means is that I can only trade a fresh trend. PISSED!!

I'm not topping up my daytrading account. I'd rather look for a less paranoid broker!

Bad News Has WINGS...And STARS...

EUR (Spot) Monthly

EUR (Futures) Daily

Proprietary Trading Firms

I'm sending out a request.

Those of you who have been reading my blog, if you know of any banks/ trading firms that are hiring, will you drop me a note please?

Yes, full-time trading with a prop trading firm is one of the routes I'm exploring.

Futures Trades 4/3

Calling a day before I start doing something foolish. I will no longer stare at the screen for 5 hours. It's bad for my eyes and REALLY bad for my brain.

ES 4/3

Not selling until ES has tested 830. Not buying until it's done a decent retracement.

Yes, am totally confused. Must be non-farm and all the bad memories.

Euro Futures (6E) Trade 4/3 - Resistance-Turned-Support With Inside Bar Setup

Bought a "W" formation (in the form of an Inverted Head & Shoulder). Trigger was an Inside Bar (see chart above - inside bar's highlighted in yellow). The Outside Bar is highlighted in grey. I went in long at the candle following the Inside Bar, at slightly above its high.

This is also a Resistance-Turned-Support (1.3434 - indicated in chart) with Inside Bar setup. 2 bullish candles closing above support validated the setup.

I've used a Fib ext 138.2 (instead of 161.8) as target given the many resistance above. Seed for drawing the Fib ext levels is highlighted in blue.

This is a very familiar pattern to me, and I've chosen to enter before the confirmation of the Inverted Head & Shoulder (confirmation level is indicated in chart). It's a risk that I have to take. With futures, you don't get rewarded for seeing the obvious. My mental stop was 2 ticks below the low of my entry candle.

I've covered before price hit 138.2 target coz candle was getting exceedingly long. Had it been a series of average body candles, I would have covered on the 5th bullish candle, which would probably be the one that hit 138.2.

This is my first trade of the day, and I started watching my charts only an hour before entry, instead of the usual 8 hours. Sure says a lot about the hazard of sitting in front of your screen for too long.

I might take another trade only after US market opens. That's 4.5 hours from now. It's a busy day for me, but I'm glad I had something to occupy my time and take me away from the charts that I've gotten too addicted to.

Update:

Chart above shows what would have happened had I pushed my luck by chasing. A very long bullish candle that hit a fib target is usually a warning of a change in trend. The mistaking of the non-inside-bar indicated in the chart as a valid inside bar wouldn't have caused any harm though, since price never went anywhere near its high, so there wouldn't have been an entry.

Next step would be to draw a fib retracement from the "head" part of the inverted head & shoulder pattern to the high. A retracement of 38.2%, or to support at 1.3450 (the confirmation level for IHS pattern) are good signs. If price falls below both, I would WAIT to see what happens. If price finds support at the "head", that will be a double bottom pattern.

Anyway, I'm really not going to enter another position until much later today.

Resistance-Turned-Support With Inside Bar

Re my earlier post on the 6E trade, the above shows a much better entry (highlighted in blue).

It's a typical Resistance-Turned-Support plus INSIDE BAR setup. Though the inside bar had closed below resistance, the candle following it had opened above and went up strongly. A stop could have been placed a tick below the low of the inside bar, and the trade can be allowed to run for at least 4 candles. 5 is a magic number - it's a fib number and 5th is often a reversal candle. So even if I were to hold the trade, I'll most probably run by the 4th...or more likely the 3rd candle.

Along an extended wave 5 (that ride up to the start of the "handle") is NOT a place I would add contracts though, if I were scaling in. It's actually where I would scale OUT.

A throwback after a move beyond the the top of the handle, one that finds support at the top of the handle - that's where I would add contracts.

It's all about the handle and what forms after it. A handle that retraces more than 61.8% is a bad sign. 38.2 is good. The move up from the end of the handle - if it doesn't exceed the top of the handle, I'll wait to see if a double top is in the making instead.

6E & ES Trades 4/2 - W4 Inside Bar (ES) & Full Target "W" (6E)

"M" shape (Wave 4) followed by an Inside Bar (Also a Resistance-Turned-Support plus Inside Bar setup - a valid one since the inside bar closed above support and the next bar opened above). Both on ES & TF

I bought the ES. Gave TF a miss coz I was watching 6E as well and 6E seemed ready to break out of downtrend line...anyway, I have only 1 brain, and I'm not greedy.

I didn't hold the trade for a point...holding's just not in my blood...YET. I need a blood transfusion.

Both are forming wave 5 now, and given that both had hit their respective full target (161.8 for ES and 261.8 for TF), and both had pierced yesterday's high, it's better to sit and watch where an ABC correction would bring them. TF seems to be leading ES for now. Anyway, they take turns.

Euro Futures (6E)

Highlighted in yellow was where I entered long. I didn't hold the trade, as usual. And as fate would have it, price hit a full 423.6% target before it did a decent throwback (the "handle" part of the Cup with Handle pattern).

I NEED NEW BLOOD.

For today:

Spending just a total of 1 hour watching charts is indeed much more productive. Thank you, Lord Tedders!!

I'm going to call it a day. Physically tired. I really need to start getting more than 3 hours of sleep per day.

ES 4/2

ES 30min

Appears to me that price is going straight for 840. A retracement to 800-808 after that looks probable. If it doesn't punch through 800 support, there's a good chance it'll take off from there to look for 880 - 900?

I have 1 6E (Euro futures) trade so far. Haven't done a lot of chart watching today. Struggling with form filling. *$%()#$@!

Sending Al and Keish to the vet. Should be trading the after lunch session.

Things I Want To Do With My Money

We finally achieved our monthly savings target in March. For a whole year now, we've gradually cut down our expenses towards 50% of income. For a family of 2 plus 2 cats, we have very high expenses - though almost half of which has nothing to do with us. So if we can't be stingy with others, we will have to give up our wants. It's a lifestyle change for D. Not so much for me, coz the only things I spent on are books and very costly medication. We have no mortgage or credit card debts to service. And that makes adjustment much easier.

Our yearly savings by end of this year should be 120k. 5 years later, that will be 600k. Pensions not included. That will be for investment in properties.

And I'll take the 5 years to unlearn all my bad trading habits and cultivate good ones. Building a good foundation is what I'm aiming for now, and comes before generating a daily profit.

For the first time yesterday, I prayed before I started trading. I had prayed for focus and protection from MYSELF. I prayed for my money to be protected coz the bulk of which is not meant for my own consumption. I told the Lord about what I want to do with the money that I've earned. And by telling Him, I have someone to hold me accountable for the way I use it.

I have no special desires and dreams. Living in a huge mansion and being able to go places will not make me a happy person, and I already knew that. I get up every day wanting to keep everything I love safe and happy. And the only way that D can be happy is if he could offer his parents the same standard of living that they've been used to. I want to be able to contribute to that reserve he is setting aside for that purpose. Next, I want to have enough for my own family - Seabloke, Pilot and my nieces. I want to be able to help in case they need it one day. Families with kids tend to get surprises - and I want to be there for them should that happen.

Then I want to be able to afford to go on missionary trips. I can't do that now coz it would be very selfish. But once I've taken care of that "reserve", I will have the peace of mind to go to places where people are not as fortunate as me, render my service and pay for what they need. I'm not going to give money to organizations coz I really don't believe that the money will be spent on the needy. I believe that the bulk goes to people who have become rich by exploiting kind folks and robbing the poor.

The only material want I have, is a Maserati Gran Turismo!!!

We'll be selling our 5-year old love (It's the safest car - which I need given my love for speed - and it has a TURBO!). New cars are really cheap (going by local standard - cars in Singapore are horrendously expensive) here now and we think it's a good time to buy. I love my tank, but D prefers the more glamorous make. He has been complaining about the handling, and the LOOK. But it's the brand that my family has been driving, and my Dad loved no other brand. I suppose I have an emotional attachment to it. I surely don't think it's pretty compared to the one that D is looking at trading it for.

To sell our car for a new one will not result in additional monetary commitment. In fact, it should help save on maintenance and perhaps even gas (my car is a THIRSTY car).

Now, I'm motivated to start sending out my resume online. Market can wait. I hadn't traded last night, but something interesting happened that called for me to stay with the market til 2am local time (2pm New York time). Lots of learning points for D, which I will document in a separate post later.

"M" & "W" With INSIDE BAR

I absolutely should have taken the trade. Inside Bar stop loss (1 tick below the low) would have totally kept me in trade for the ride up.

The "M" shape with an Inside Bar attached to it is frequently found in "W" formations (which includes double bottom, 3 rising valleys, cup with handle patterns). I've had so many captured and stored in my files it was really unwise to not trade it.

And I totally ignored the bullish crossover of my shifted MA and my EMA. Something I just told D last night that I wouldn't do. A crossover that follows a consolidation is almost always promising.

I so want to kick myself. I'm sure price is going to hit Fib ext 211.8 at least (it's now at 161.8). Common for a "W" shape formation that has done a decent retracement (the "M" part of the formation).

6E (Euro) Trades 4/1 & About Trading For A Living

Am waiting IMPATIENTLY for another setup. Totally abandoning my sniper style trading and giving up my USD100 -300 daily gains to cultivate new trading habits. I feel like a bamboo tree, except that I'll probably take more than 5 years to emerge from underground to see sunlight.

I need to adopt a different style of trading so that I can still continue to trade while working a 9 to 6 job (ok, D, I'm REALLY going to start filling those painful online application...). I need a job to keep me sane, and to keep me in the trading game. I have an emotional and practical need for an income!

After an 18-month trial, I'm as sure as I can get (I'm confused by default) about my verdict that a full-time job is good for me. I'm 101% certain that it will make me a much better trader than I was before - not that I was a good one then, but I did have a positive year...one that could have seen my account wiped out had lady luck not been on my side...

I will definitely consider trading for a living when I retire. For now, I'm just too happy (and too depressed) a person to be trading full time.

If I don't send out at least 3 job applications today, D is allowed to spank and starve me for 2 days (the starving, NOT the spanking).

I really would rather serve burgers than to have to fill in an application for a job in the public sector!!!

I HATE FORM FILLING!!!

My EURO trades for now:

I was a dumb ass for going short on my 1st trade (entry is highlighted in yellow). Realized after 2 minutes that this was the very swing that I had waited for to see if price was going to make a higher low (the floor of the downsloping channel was getting less steep, and I was prepared to see a major retracement up), and I was trading it - DOWN!

I'm a retard.

Got out within the same candle. I don't need the market to tell me that I'm wrong. NOT ANYMORE.

2nd entry (highlighted in blue) was a little better - though I was takinga chance (wasn't expecting price to break on the upside given the bearish sentiment). No hard stop was put in (price hit 1 tick above my mental stop momentarily though, before springing back up, a sign that price is being rejected at that level). The small bodied bearish candles dragged price down to near support didn't intimidate me. This is a pattern I'm familiar with. I said I would trade a 3 Rising Valley one day - today's the day, and I refused to be shaken out.

On the 3rd bullish candle up, I put in a hard stop at HH (see chart above). And, I would have been taken out at a small loss had I not taken profit when price hit resistance. I'm not ready for home-runs yet. That will be phase 2 of the exercise.

ES, TF & 6E 4/1

ES

We should get a bounce off 770. 800 has been breached yesterday, clearing the way for ES - it's likely heading for 830 and beyond.
Volatility Stop: 4 - 5 points

TF

Bouncing off at 405 to test 430, I think.
Volatility Stop: 2.5 - 3.5 points

Euro (6E)

Seems possible for 6E to hit Fib ext 138.2 (1.2930) today.
Game Plan: Trading down mostly
Volatility Stop: 2 points

A Grouchy Singaporean

Little wonder that I'm a depressed Singaporean...

When I first came home, I greeted my colleagues "good morning", and asked how they were whenever I stepped into the office, and would get enough dirty looks to spoil my day.

I hold doors for strangers who either think they are automatic doors or give me strange looks. I give up my seats on the train to those who needed them more, and people would stare so hard that the offers would be turned down almost everytime.

When FAMILIES with children gathered around to watch someone being bashed up, without doing anything to intervene (they actually cleared up enough space for the assault to continue!!), all I needed to do was YELL at the attackers and all scrammed.

I don't know what my people are made of. They can be so inconsiderate, callous, agonizingly selfish and territorial it makes daily living here a dread (that's why I get out of my shell only once a month). And they can't seem to stop the cycle of frustrating one another to death!

Channel NewsAsia - Wednesday, April 1

SINGAPORE: The Singapore Kindness Month is kicking off on April 4 and organisers want to bring their message into homes and offices.

Even though the idea of showing kindness is a simple one, organisers said it takes more than a catchy jingle to change the social habits of people.

A survey was conducted last December to find out how much weight Singaporeans gave to being kind and gracious, and how well they fared in each of these areas. The overall result was a mere 58 out of 100.

The survey also found that six in ten people, out of 500 respondents, were not too impressed with the level of social graces around them.

"As drivers, Singaporeans are rude — they take advantage, break the rules when they can, it’s a me—first attitude," one man said.

But surprisingly, most Singaporeans were not too upset over the behaviours of others in the food court. These include failing to return food trays and leaving tissue paper packets or umbrellas on seats to indicate that they have been taken.

One lady said: "’Choping’ seats with tissue paper is fine, especially in Raffles Place because everybody else is doing it — it’s like the culture here. Of course at times, it can be quite embarrassing to do that, but we really have no choice. We’re only given one hour for lunch!"

The Singapore Kindness Movement wants to get the young started on the courtesy drive.

Koh Poh Tiong, chairman, Singapore Kindness Movement, said: "We’re not perfect, but I’m an optimist. I’ve got full faith in Singaporeans. I think, generally, Singaporeans are a bit shy to be expressive.

"I noticed that when my son opened a door for a lady, some of his friends said, ’Why are you doing this?’. But if we can teach children at a very young age, it’ll become second nature to them."

The organisers hope that through celebrity ambassadors and public outreach initiatives this year, they can encourage more people to show kindness.

A Talented Musician With Rain Man's Disorder

When I was younger, I had taken electric organ lessons at Yamaha. For 10 years, I spent almost 5 hours there every Saturday (I had to wait for Seabloke and Pilot whose classes were in different slots), until I left for Canada at 16.

There was this teenager - probably 17 to 18 years old then - who played at the show room almost every week. Very talented guy who suffered from an illness I didn't understand then - he had this constant muscle spasms and he would yell at anyone and anything that got close. I've never seen him interact with anyone the normal way. He just played the organ, and he played it beautifully, even when he was playing furiously.

Just got word from Seabloke that he's been caught trafficking 1.3kg of heroine. In Singapore, if you're found with that much heroine, you're a dead man. But he was caught in Taiwan.

I actually hope he's going to be ok. Life has dealt him really bad cards. I don't know what happened to him in that 20 years that I haven't seen him - I would like to think that some evil people have been using him, and that they would leave him alone now that he's been caught.

Seabloke just messaged to say that he's going to be extradited back here - our cops had followed him to Taiwan and arrested him there. He's likely to face the death penalty.

Life...can it get any more cruel?

INSIDE BARS Below Resistance Line

On the Euro Futures 5min chart (Mar 31), 2 more inside bars found during US trading hours:

Support-Turned-Resistance Setups

1 hour into US trading session, 6E bounced off the floor of an Ascending Broadening Wedge, hit resistance and turned down, forming a typical Partial Rise. The outside bar is the 2nd candle in a Market Structure High, and the Inside Bar is the Trigger Candle.

An hour later, price did a typical pull back to the uptrendline of the ABW, piercing a resistance on its way up, but closing only once above the resistance. We have a MSH, and the Trigger candle is an Inside bar again.

In both cases, we have more than 2 bearish candles that closed BELOW what used to be a support line before price pulled back to hit that line again. A MINIMUM of 2 closes below is needed if we're looking for high probability trades - it's an indication that that line is no longer good as support, and that price is likely to stay below.

Inside bars should only be used as a trigger when it's found in significant and market structure lows and highs. They are seen everywhere, but only the ones that are at swings and MS highs and lows should be traded.

TF Trade 3/31

Lost 2.5 points in a single TF trade. Just one of those days that I shouldn't trade. Couldn't read my chart.

I'm going to have to make a decision as to when I want to trade. Can't do 16 hours a day. Burnt out. Sat on my hands almost the entire session, while fighting the urge to just leave my screen and turn in. If I don't trade, I feel guilty (about being LAZY). When I force a trade, I feel HORRIBLE. Catch 22 situation.

Leon: Thanks for your note and suggestion. Unfortunately, I'm really bad with the whole scaling in and scaling out thing. I'm a simple single-or-multiple contracts in and out person. I'm also a control freak - I can't let anything run on its own. So I'll end up micro-managing the remaining contracts anyway :-)

Cory: Thanks for the link. My cats are not eating coz they reacting to the antibiotics after surgery. I'm worried about Al's throwing up coz he has other problems and bacteria could get into the major organs. Whenever he's sick, my world becomes a really dark place.

Textbook INSIDE BARS

3 perfect Inside Bars within a short-span of 5 hours that would have yielded very lucrative returns - had I traded them (well, maybe not, coz I would have run after 3 candles at most anyway. But these are high probability setups with relatively lower risk, since you usually use the high or low of the inside bar as stops).

Double Bottom

Resistance-Turned-Support

Draw resistance where price was stopped. Look for resistance to be broken. Look for at least 2 closes (on bullish candles) above resistance. When price makes a throwback to resistance, keep a lookout for inside bars that form above it. If the bar is formed below, but the candle following opens and closes above, good to go.

Fib 38.2 Throwback

Instead, I went for really lousy setups, lost the first 2 trades (stop loss - hard ones - totally to be blamed!!), and took the next 4 (NO hard stops used - only mental ones taking into account S & R and volatility stops) to break even (if I didn't have to pay my broker).


Have had enough of Euro for today. Switching to ES & TF after US market opens.

Al and Keish are not eating or drinking. I'm starting to use syringes to force water into them. If they don't get better, I think I'll go crazy worrying.

I really have to sort out this stop loss issue. Or maybe it's my entry.

Yup, totally my entries. If I know I just went in on a bad entry, I wouldn't hold my trades, and would rather take a loss.

ES, TF & 6E 3/31

ES

Game Plan: Scalp within 760 - 800 range
Volatility Stop: 4 - 5 points

TF

Game Plan: Scalp within 410 - 440 range
Volatility Stop: 2.5 - 3.5 points

6E

Game Plan: Scalping within the 1.3180 to 1.3400 range
Volatility stop: 1.5 - 2 points

6E & TF Trades 3/30

TF 5min

Can't complain about the market. It's one that I'm familiar with. Saw my setup and went in with a TIGHT HARD STOP (D was shocked I wouldn't even give it 1 point). Bad move. I forgot that I wasn't trading Euro futures (which I'm not familiar with YET, and it can get crazier than TF).

With TF, hard stops have always resulted in losing days. Mental stops and sniper style play have resulted in winning days 90% of the time. Days that I don't know where my stop and target is are my blowup days. Used to happen once a month. For the past 3 months, it's happened more frequently. I must have hit the wall.

The thing with TF is that I know it better than I know any other futures. I don't have to trade it the "proper" way to get 1 to 3 points a day.

I have my monthly getaway tomorrow - I'm seeing a human friend! I'm not going to fret over my blunder, and am going to get my beauty sleep. At least I learnt something about balance today. I seem to have to swing from one extreme to the other to find it.

Anyway, it's a good day. I love 6E, and I love TF. But I have to use different strategy with each. And I really have to stay with the market like I did before. These days, it's just difficult to focus with all the other things that need my attending to. I am desperately looking forward to days when I can sit here from market open to market close again.