Before any of the above happens, I'm going to stick to getting in and out on momentum. That was my plan. A flexible enough one for me.
Just one scalp - and just one contract - today. Not chasing. Am a really sick bear. The gotta-call-my-family-doctor kind of sick. Am feeling woozy as I type. I can't believe the resilience of this stupid flu virus. Just really hoping that it's not pneumonia AGAIN. I would hate to have to be admitted for weeks this time. Unless they allow my entire workstation to be brought in with me....
My trade. Just one. Profit: USD 175
Performance Scorecard
9 comments:
Hi Juliana :
When I look at your 1-min chart, I realized I was caught in the whip-saw a few times because I saw the green candle forming in the 3-min chart which eventually turned into a red candle & I let the position deteriorate.
Not sure whether I should try switching to 1-min time-frame on the indicators taught by Michael. Or should I decide my entry after the formation of the 1st 3-min candle.
Tony
Hello Juliana,
What is your entry signal? =)
regards,
KH
Hi KH,
I don't rely on specific signals.
When I want to get in (after getting a confirmation on price actions - sometimes I look at indicators, most times I don't), I'll open IB's booktrader and look at the momentum. Let's say if TF is trading up and down in a tight range, and I want to sell - I'll have to see that price is struggling up tick by tick and tumbling down a lot faster than it's going up within that range.
I'll enter at the price that's near the top of the range. Sometimes I don't get filled, and price just tumbles right out of that range. I rarely chase, and simply wait for the next pull back.
Hope I answered your question?
Tony,
Michael trades on 3min and 10mins, and doesn't use 1min chart, and I'm not sure about the efficacy of his indicators on 1min.
1min is used by scalpers mainly, and scalpers get in and out within ticks (on good days, 1 to 3 points).
You tend to get whipsawed if you chase. Coz if you scalp on 1min, you need momentum in the direction you're entering on. Once the momentum's gone, direction could change.
Lately, you hardly see 2 or 3 consecutive red or green candles. If trend is down, you'd see a long red candle, sometimes 2, followed by a few small green candles.
If you've missed the long red candle, and get filled on the green candles, and then you get out and reverse your trade, you're going to find that you're in the wrong direction again after 1 or 2 mins, coz another long red candle is forming (downtrend resumes).
Hence, if I miss the first red candle, I'll scratch, or if I'm sure that it is only the beginning of a fierce downward move, I'll simply sit out the pullback.
Most of the time, if I miss getting in on that first red candle, I'll wait to get in after the pullback candles (green candles).
I find it better to learn to watch price actions without indicators when you're starting out.
And having another timeframe (I use 1hr, 15mins and 5min with 1min - but for a start, you should at least look at the 5min along with the 1min) is useful. Just make sure you don't use it to justify overstaying :-)
Tony,
I'm assuming you were referring to the period after 10:00am EST?
If it's between 9:30 to 10:00, you shouldn't be whipsawed. That's a scalper/daytrader's money window. You'll usually see quite a few red - if trend is down - followed by 1 or max 2 greens. As price plunges further, pull back will of course be steeper, and you'll see more and longer greens.
Drawing Fib retracement helps. TF usually retraced to fib 38.2 or less on a trending day.
Tony,
just read your question again and realized I wasn't answering your question.
You should be following the 10min if you're trading on 3min. And coz you're using 3min, your stops will be different from those who use 1min. Your stops will be wider of course - but your profits are also better :-)
Were you trading the "first trade of the day"? If you were, you should get confirmation on the 10min RUT first. And you have to see that "hook" on 3min TF - which means that if you were going to sell, price must be seen going up first, then turned down. You sell on the 2nd candle.
Hi Juliana :
Thanks for your reply & additional clarifications.
The question I asked was more of the 1st 3 min. candle formed at 9.30am, market opening hours. I paper-traded mainly ES and have seen a few times where in the midst of forming this 1st 3 min. candle, a long green candle was forming (and I went long) & very quickly it ended as a red candle and the next few candles were red. Vice-versa, formation of the 1st red candle could become successive green candles. Such formation could sometimes take 5 to 6 points within 15 minutes in the 1st half hour of market opening hour.
Actually from your replies I understand roughly what you’re trying to convey. I just need more experiences & I’m someone who’s like referring to past chart patterns (I screen capture the SP500, ES charts almost daily) to see repeated patterns - looking at the price chat and the indicators formed at those moments.
I understand you’ve mentioned a few times about looking at price pattern (without referring to indicators) to determine your entry/exit. Am I right to say this price pattern recognition is based on accumulation of experience? Or is there a book that you could recommend that I can pick up such a skill.
Thanks once again & Gong Xi Fa Cai !!
Tony Chai
Tony,
By price actions/patterns, I mean quite a number of things: chart patterns, candlestick patterns, what prices do at support & resistance, what prices are doing in relation to volume, momentum (esp on tape) steepness of moves, etc. In my blog entries, most of the stuff I talk about are related to price actions. There are certainly books on the topic. Look for books on technical analysis, and books like Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, books on chart patterns and candlestick patterns. When you become familiar with a specific instrument, you'll read price faster and with higher accuracy. So yes, experience is key. Getting the knowledge from books first will help you to understand what you are seeing on charts faster.
Re ES - I'm not familiar with ES, but what you mentioned applies to the others too (YM, TF, etc). What you see is very common on intraday charts. And you see a lot of these during market open.
Hi Juliana :
Thank you for your reply.
Thanks for highlighting too the volatility of the futures when market opens. It takes guts & sharp decision to scalp in this 1st half hour. I would avoid trading in this half hour until I gained more experiences & confidence (yes, Michael, I'm still not that confident yet, if you're reading this :) I've ever lost more than 10 points within this 1/2 hour, enough to give me the shivers.
Would read up the books that you've recommended, Juliana.
Regards,
Tony Chai
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