Monday, January 26, 2009

TF Trades 1/26

Am in syn with market today.

So much so that I was tempted to SELL at various points, especially when 5min chart was forming what was possibly a head and shoulder, and 1min had formed a partial rise within a broadening top (see chart below) - all very bearish patterns that are needed to push TF down to around 448 -449 (Fib 38.2 retracement - typical retracement level for TF on a TRENDING day).

But I've made some sort of a promise (to D) that I will NOT fade a trend FOR NOW.

I'm starting to monitor the movement of ES closer, and have switched to BAR charts since the last session. I find bar charts a lot cleaner, and this really helps when I'm watching 5 charts (4 for TF and 1 for ES). I can still see my stars and hammers and engulfing and haramis, so I'm really NOT missing my candles.

TICK has been extremely helpful in the past 2 weeks that I started to really use it to 1) gauge if a move is sustainable and 2) to time my entries.

Volume pattern has been reliable for patterns like head and shoulder and flags.

It's a Monday and I really want to start my week in the green. And that's held me back from letting profits run, and might even hold me back from entering another long above 458 later today.

But maybe that's not such a bad thing. If TF has any real strength, it wouldn't have stopped at 458. The fact that 458 indeed provided resistance shows that it's still not the time to get aggressive.

Am calling it a day. This is about my only strength/edge - I don't chase - and I intend to continue to use it to stay alive.

And I'm starting to notice that I might just have learnt a thing or 2 about patience. I no longer feel ashamed about having to start from scratch: targeting for just 1 point a day. Getting consistent is my focus for now. I'm giving it another month, or whenever the market's less chaotic (albeit in a rather organized manner). After that, I'm not going to restrict myself to my current trading "quota" anymore.

That said, if TF does what I think it might do ie. starts forming a second leg up after retracing to around 448-449, I will definitely get in again - provided it happens before 3pm EST. It's a crime to not trade a bull flag.

My trades today. Profit: USD 130
TF Hourly & 15min

No comments: