Blogging, FX Trading, The Wacky Market and Such

D noticed that I've not been updating my blog as frequently as I used to. I happen to have noticed that too.

It's not that I've run out of topics - I have a list that will take me a month to finish if I just blog on 1 of them a day.

The truth is, I don't see any value in what I have to say.

I've wanted to blog about the nasty, uncalled for and malicious comments I've been seeing on others' blogs. I scrap the idea eventually. Many are going through a bad time - perhaps there's really simply nothing else better for these anonymous vipers to do; and if attacking their counterparts offer them some kind of relief and comfort, I'll be a terrible person to attack them.

I've really wanted to post something on the global economy. But others are already doing a far better job. Much better for me to spend my time reading them than writing about what I think.

Then there's this 10-part series on my family saga that I am really tempted to start on, but I want my Granny to rest in peace for now. My memoir can wait.

I must have a dozen drafts on daily market analysis, which I have NOT posted, coz I didn't want a CERTAIN SOMEONE to go into the market with a bias view during a period that calls for a heap of FLEXIBILITY and a lot of experience and traders' INTUITION to ride through the storm. Most importantly, I didn't see the point of writing when the person I wanted to benefit the most wasn't reading. Yes, I see the contradiction in this para. I'm always in one jumble after another. That pretty much sums up who I am.

I've wanted to blog on my FX trades - with charts and all - but decided that they are best left where there are now: in my physical FX scrapbook. Don't want to waste anyone's time reading them coz I haven't come up with a systematic way of trading FX. If I've been losing money, I wouldn't mind posting them as learning lessons for both myself and those who are reading them.The way I trade FX is that I don't exit until I see profits. I trade very small lots (NOT the standard 100,000 units lot), and let my losses run. Some call it contrarian. I don't. Contrarian is something else. Buffet is a contrarian; I'm just NON-MAINSTREAM. I adopted the concept of NOT taking a loss, while focusing on getting on the right side of the trend, from an FX trader who believes that retail FX traders are inherently disadvantaged and therefore must somehow find a way to catch a ride with the big players. Those who are interested might want to check out "Bird Watching in Lion Country". For preview, visit The Lonely Trader's blog, and check out the list on his blogroll. One of them has an extensive write-up on the author and his method. I'm not telling which one it is, only coz going through his blogroll list is a good exercise. You'll find some treasures there.

I might start to post my pre-market analysis again once I'm comfortable that having a view is better than NOT having one (for the past month, I really see the benefit of NOT going into the market with an impression, expectation, and view of any sorts) before the US market opens.

Once D leaves for HK (5 days from now), I might just start a mini-series on "100 Things I Love and Hate About D".

Hur Hur Hur......

I am going back to trading my real money account. Since I trade better in a bad state, I can't see the logics of not using real money now that I'm highly dysfunctional.

If I make any money, I'm going to have to start thinking seriously about writing a book, and give it a title along the line of "an anti-thesis of trading psychology".

Reply III

Todd,
I'm sorry I deleted your following comment (copied from my email notification) by mistake:

How sad life can feel.
Death stalks us throughout our lives.
And yet, the bird I hear singing now in the early morning reminds me that all we truly Have, abides in the moment, so for that I can be thankful and happy for.
I'm sorry for your loss.

Thanks for your note.

I feel sorry about Granny too.

It is a great loss.

She was the only one left of my Dad.

As Seabloke said - there's NO MORE.

Proprietary Trader,
Thanks for your email. I really appreciate it. I'm doing fine. The heart just needs some time.

Secblog,
Thanks for your comment. I didn't start out wanting this to be an informative blog, but am glad you like the content. What I have is really a diary of sorts. Seabloke and D used to be my only target audience. Speaking of which, I realized it had slipped my mind to put in my birthday wishlist :-)
You have a very interesting blog yourself.

NQ Trades 10/17

2 trades going long - the 1st is a scalp; the 2nd is something else (basically, a lousy entry that I decided to sit through, and position was automatically closed when NQ hit my preset profit target).





I'm officially a non-bear - until the double bottom pattern fails that is.


Set my TWS layout to hide pnL when I'm in trade. Works for me. Allows me to focus on price movements and patterns. PnL data distracts me and derails my plan.

Reply II

Thanks, Sage, Harry, Moyo for your emails and comments. I'm ok. My granny went peacefully - she suffered a massive stroke and didn't quite regain consciousness...

I can't complain about the way she was taken: quick and painless.

The only part that I haven't been able to come to terms with is that I've not made good my words - I promised to show her my new home (which I didn't actually want to, coz my flooring's black, and I hack all my walls - I did everything that she hated..) and I didn't get to.

We chatted on the phone just a few days before she fell, and I promised I would call more often (even though I suck big time at small talk, and always hated to have to ask her the same old "have you had your breakfast/lunch/dinner" and "how're your legs" questions), and she was so happy she told Seabloke.

Granny was the reason I got to finish school after my Dad passed away (when his assets were frozen for reasons far out of the scope of this blog entry), and the reason I'm living a normal life today.

Granny had always been overbearing, extremely fiery and extremely doting at the same time. Her presence had been impossible to ignore. At 84, she was far more alert than me, and was way better with people than me. It's been difficult to look at her lifeless body for the past 2 days, and be convinced that that's my granny. I kept going to look at her face, zooming in and zooming out, just wanting to get a firm grip on reality...

I was telling D just hours before she left us that I was going to spend the following week telling her about Christ - I believe she could hear me (she responded by choking everytime I nudged her - I knew she did, and I didn't care that the consultant who attended to her insisted that her entire brain was damaged). Really, I couldn't think of a better opportunity to share with her my faith (I mean, she wouldn't be able to tell me to shut up!).

For some strange reason, I know that she's in a good place. She must have believed in what I believe, since she's never asked me to hold a joss stick...

I trust that she is in the good hands of Christ my Lord.

Thanks, Cory, for your email. I'm sorry about what you went through, and am immensely happy for you that you eventually found yourself a new life. I'll reply soonest I can.

Thanks, Lord Tedders, for your comment on scalping NQ. Will publish and comment as soon as I can.

Thanks, Michelle (INO), for your email. I've given your a brief reply. Yes, will call you. On Friday.

Granny Passed Away Today

Kissed her at 1.

And she's gone 6 hours later.

Life.

How I Trade The NQ - A TOTAL DISASTER

D read what he was supposed to read (It's an irony that I had started blogging seriously on TRADING for D, yet he seems more interested in my non-trading related postings!), so I am resuming my blogging activity.

This has gotta be the most comical of all my trades - paper and real (NOT the YG - that was the trade I closed earlier today):

It was a trade I shouldn't have taken (wrong timeframe), but I went in anyhow.

I was looking for a trade.

I had spent 9:30 - 11am staring at a chart that had obviously made a lower high, fallen back below 1280, and DID NOTHING.

And I can't stand not having done anything. So, I went in at the 12:35 candle (circled in grey on chart below), and set my profit target at 1210.

What happened next was typical of what had been happening for the past few sessions - the trade went against me almost immediately.

Since I've set my profit target, I decided to take a shower.

That was a clear sign of me giving up.

I told D to take over the trade.

He did, and closed my trade at 1225 (I entered at 1226.25 with 2 contracts).

A while later, he came in to apologize, coz NQ had gone below 1210.

I said it was ok. There was really nothing to be sorry about. It was the wrong entry anyway.

I had totally lost the ability to catch a plunge.

I no longer know what I am doing.

With ER2, I used to have a plan.

I either went in pre-market for a swing with a stop loss in place, or I scalped without a stop, and ran whenever I started losing by a few ticks.

With NQ, the first few days were good - I could catch the plunge at the moment it plunged.

Then I started to have to sit through major retracements before I could get my targeted profit (there were occasions where I simply couldn't cut my loss when the loss was up to $3000!).

I always ended up getting my $1000 over profit, coz we're basically in a bear market, and NQ always ended up at a certain fib level (138.2/ 161.8). And since I tend to give a lot of buffer (my profit target is always far away from that level), it was not at all difficult to get the profit I wanted with the contract size I was trading.

But those were paper trades.

Seeing a loss of $3000 was NOT NICE, but it wasn't devastating. So I had always held on, coz what I was focusing on was my destination. I didn't care how I got there, as long as I got there.

Would it have been different if I were using real money?

I would think so.

Now of course I could rationalize that if I could get away with that kind of trading system (if I could call it a system in the first place) 10 times out of 10, then i should just trust that it will work in real-money trades.

But I couldn't convince myself to use such a method. It was a method that works only when there isn't a stop loss.

I just need to be wrong once to have a substantial portion of my account wiped out.

What I am looking at is more than a position sizing problem.

Even when I scaled down to 5 contracts, I sat through the same retracement.

It's extremely frustrating to be able to visualize mountains and flags before they even took shape, yet not knowing where to enter without taking a huge loss on paper first.

Like I said, with real money, I just need to be wrong once to suffer a huge setback.

The problem that I've been having with NQ is that I don't cut loss.

When I'm supposed to scalp, I don't run when I'm supposed to. When I decided to stay for a longer trade, I don't set a stop loss.

All my rules are thrown out of the window.

I kept insisting I know where my destination is, but I hadn't given much thought to how I get there.

If I keep getting hitchhikes like that, I could get murdered before I get to my destination.

I know it has something to do with the target I set.

With ER2, I didn't really have a daily target - I just took whatever I could get from the market.

Was I happy with my results?

Not really.

So I set a higher target.

Without this higher target in mind, I could start trading NQ right away with real money.

But I don't want to.

I am giving it another shot at achieving my target of 1k a day with a reasonable risk to reward ratio.

And I will let time tell me if I am naive, greedy, or just simply nuts.

New Label

Starting from my next posting on pre-market analysis/comments, I'm going to have to add a label "Must Read For D".

I used "SCHIZO" to describe the market in my earlier posting today.

And it did exactly what I said it MIGHT do.

That's why I'm mad.

I will stop blogging until D reads MUST READ.

&%$%*#%&$!!!!!

D is still adorable of course.

Very adorable.

FX (Simulated) Trades 10/8 - Closed All Positions

Came back from the hospital and noticed that unrealized P & L has shrunk from 4700 to around 3300.

Closed all positions.

Regroup.

Anyway, when US market opens, it alway does something to my P & L, and it usually is NOT good.

I would have loved to leave half on the table, but I haven't found that option on Oanda.

Haven't found the trail stop feature either.

I'm glad I'm paper trading.

Current NAV: 110,000

FX - Reasons For Sitting and Holding

Here are the reasons I'm holding my positions:

Technically:
Monthly and weekly charts are all showing BB that's either just beginning to widen or is still widening, MACD and Stoch all supporting a bearish trend.

AUD and NZD


JPY Crosses


Fundamentally:

• Market's jittery, best to play risk aversion ie. LONG JPY.
• Shorting AUD and NZD (NOT longing USD, but really just shorting AUD. And since I'm shorting AUD, might as well short NZD - since NZ's economy depends so much on what happens in Australia. I could short AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY of course, but that will mean too much exposure to JPY. If even rising gold can't help these 2 countries, I'm going to sit on my short entry for now.

P&L for now

YG (Simulated) Trade - Close Position

Closed position. Before it offsets my "profit" in FX. Silly to wait til it goes up to 923. Regroup.

FX (Simulated) Trades 10/8 - Tempted To Take Profit

All in green. Tempted to close positions!!



Proprietary Trader, I'm hopeless at sitting tight!

But I'll hold.

YG (Simulated) Trade and NQ

Yikes!!!


Holding until it goes up to 923 again. Looks like one failed bull flag after another to me.



NQ Oct 10

If NQ doesn't go up to 1280, and stay above that before 12pm EST today, it's going to plunge to fib 161.8.

I'm not betting on it to climb up to that level (1280) pre-market.

Hence, am not going to enter short (yup, I'm still a bear) before market opens - even if it tests 1280 and fails.

Market's a little schizo now, and might just rally after 9:30am EST.

NQ 30min

FX (Simulated) Trades 10/8 - Update

(Click to enlarge)


Holding.

Monthly and weekly charts are encouraging.

For details, see this.

Current net asset value (since 100k game account was opened on Sep 25) : $109,941

Free Falling NQ, YM and ES??

Fib 161.8 & 261.8 levels for:

NQ: 1120 & 923

YM: 8080 & 6380

ES: 839 & 640

NQ


NQ


YM


ES

NQ (Simulated) Trades 10/9

For now...


Charts are all screwed and the only one that's usable (barely) is the 1 day 1-min. Had to rely on my indicators, and noticed that they are not too bad.

Wonderful Life

Didn't trade last night.

Brought Al and Keisha to Dr Nathan's. Al had his daily shots of antibiotic and liquids , and Keisha was there for a blood test.

Seems like Al's getting better.

But Keisha is the problem now. She's not been eating. Bad teeth. Dr Nathan has put her on medication for the time being until she's ready for her dental surgery.

By the time we got home, market has already opened. After we had dinner, it was near 11am EST.

Granny's going to be transferred to another hospital. She's no longer going to be herself. She won't be able to sit up and eat anymore; she probably wouldn't be able to move at all for the rest of her life.

D is going to Hong Kong this month to meet up with his mum who's flying in from LA, and they will spend a week there visiting their friends and relatives.

And I gather that while he's there, D will probably check in on a significant someone.

D had asked me to join him, since my closest friends and my only child are now living in Hong Kong.

I turned down the kind offer.

Too huge an emotional baggage.

Too many bad memories.

And a single person whose throat I'm afraid I'll go for should I run into her.

I'm convinced now, that there are just too many things that I can't prevent from happening.

The best I can do is to let go, and be prepared for the days where all the people that matter to me will leave me - one at a time, one way or the other.

And D is the first person I have to purge from the core of my heart. He is a good person. But I'm not. So we are inherently NOT meant to be. And for as long as I know that, I'll always be prepared for him to leave me for a sweet, decent, NORMAL woman.

So, I'm letting him go, for the 2nd time in 6 months, to a place that I think will haunt me for a very long time.

Anyway, it'll be fun without him around. I can now sit in front of my computer for 20 hours a day, skip my meals, skip all my grooming routines ,and be a bona fide WITCH!!

I'm glad I have a cleaning lady, coz I'm going to have to depend on her to make my shell as sanitized as it can possibly get before D's mum arrives. Something to do with first impressions.

Yes, that's going to be the first time I'm meeting D's mum in the 15 years that I've been with D.

She's a brain surgeon; I'm a smoker.

I think we'll make great pals.

Ha Ha.

One of D's favorite songs (I don't need to be a genius to figure out that the friend he needs isn't me, and I wonder when I'll ever be kind enough to release him):

Wonderful Life

Here I go out to see again
the sunshine fills my hair
and dreams hang in the air
Gulls in the sky and in my blue eyes
you know it feels unfair
there's magic everywhere

Look at me standing
here on my own again
up straight in the sunshine

No need to run and hide
it's a wonderful, wonderful life
No need to laugh and cry
it's a wonderful, wonderful life

Sun in your eyes
the heat is in your hair
they seem to hate you
because you're there
and I need a friend
Oh, I need a friend
to make me happy
not stand here on my own

Look at me standing
here on my own again
up straight in the sunshine

No need to run and hide
it's a wonderful, wonderful life
No need to laugh and cry
it's a wonderful, wonderful life

I need a friend
oh, I need friend
to make me happy
not so alone.......
Look at me here
here on my own again
up straight in the sunshine

No need to run and hide
it's a wonderful, wonderful life
No need to laugh and cry
it's a wonderful, wonderful life

No need to run and hide
it's a wonderful, wonderful life
No need to run and hide
it's a wonderful, wonderful life
wonderful life, wonderful life

FX (Simulated) Trades 10/8

4 positions opened at 6:45am EST:


Not filling me yet....
Fine.

NQ (Simulated) Trades 10/7 - Reduced Contract Size

Reduced my contract size to 5 today. This is the last parameter that I'm tweaking. I leave the best for last.

All those times that I've traded ER2, I've been talking about my lines - my dotted lines, my brown lines, my lilac lines etc. I don't know if anyone out there actually has any inkling what I was talking about, I'll do my best to expound on this....but not today (it's Al time now - he's still very sick).

There's a slight difference in the way I trade NQ. Will transcribe what I have scribbled on my scrapbook...again, not today.

Anyway, I've decided to trade 5 instead of 10 contracts because I really want to be able to use what I've taken quite a bit of effort to figure out - those lines.

With 10 contracts, it's difficult to stick with my profit targets. I want to be able to let my profit run, and I can only do so with a reduced position.

Here's my result for today:




NQ 30min (click on chart to see enlarged version - blue dotted horizontal line and blue trend line are the lines that will make me run if they are breached; green line is from 5min chart, where I decided only during market open that that was as low as NQ would go before 2pm - and I don't intend to trade til 2 today...)

NQ (Simulated) Trade 10/6

Havoc. Dow broke 10,000 support.

NQ's range is obscene (so visually obscene on 1min chart I don't even want to show it here).

Used all 30min, 5min and 1min today - Fib extension for PT on 30min, BB and S&R on 5min, entry on 1min.

NQ 30min


NQ 5min






Still holding on to YG - entered much earlier today, and couldn't monitor it as Al had to be sent to the clinic.

"Profit" for NQ today: $1054

D is a total contrarian: going long when NQ was plunging, and earned $280. Real money!!! D looks at Dow and NDX and caught the divergence. I've given up on divergence long time ago. I love my chart.

How I Trade The ER2

In this posting from yesterday, I mentioned that if ER2 doesn't break above 742, I'll short it to 723.

I was asked how I would deal with the other resistances below 742.

I haven't been able to explain that. I suck at explaining anything.

So, what I'm going to do is to show exactly how I plan for my trade/s on a typical trading day.

The first thing I do before I even look at my ER2 chart is to see how the market has done yesterday and the days before, and if I can, find out WHY the market is behaving the way it's behaving.

Knowing the whys gives me a better sense of whether a trend will last. Knowing the whys these days tells me whether YESTERDAY's trend will last (nowadays, you just can't think beyond 1 day's trend), and who (bulls or bears) will be the jittery one today should price fail to hit a support or resistance.

In a climate where no one knows for sure where the market is heading, and where most players are opportunists taking a ride hopefully on the right side, what we are all playing is just FEAR. What I have learnt so far about an uptrend is that it is motivated by HOPE and GREED and a downtrend is fueled by FEAR. But these days, a decidedly strong upward move could be one that's driven by fear too -frightened bears covering.

As far as ER2 is concerned, you seldom see ranging sessions these days. They are either strong trending days or CHAOTIC sessions that give you fake breakouts and NO PATTERNS. These are all signs of extreme sentiments to me. Everyone's jumping in when they see an opportunity, and fleeing when it looks like the party is going to be over sooner than they thought.

Did I digress again??

Anyway, an example of the things I look at before I study my 30min chart for intraday trade has been documented in my previous post.

Now, my 30-min chart.

This is the zoomed out view of my 30-min chart (click on chart for enlarged view), which I use to find key support and resistance lines:

First, I look for the lines that I think are the ones that the bears and the bulls will be hoping to see breached. And if these lines are not hit, you'll get a trend in the first (sometimes longer, maybe til 11am) hour of the trading session (On some days, I simply can't find a line that I can work with and that's usually when there's nothing much happening in a market that's going nowhere in the first place...).

For today, I do have something to work with: a rally on Monday on ONE SINGLE piece of news that has so far not exactly been well-received (except by those who bought of course), and a Tuesday where almost all the gains on Monday were lost.

So, my question at this point would be this: was that just profit taking, or frantic offloading (afterall, and I'm refering to just ER2, yesterday's session failed to reach the high of Monday's session, and this is not exactly the sign of a healthy uptrend)? If it's the former, will price continue its upward move following Monday's gain?

At this point, I take a look at Monday's price movement. Not at all bullish. The gains were from the gap. After that was DOWN almost all the way, followed by bears taking profit and covering (maybe even some new buying??) in the later part of the day.

So, now, I really have no reason to think that the market is optimistic.

But on a day when everything's so grim, bottom fishers would start coming in, won't they?

So, there you go - my thoughts all in a jumble again.

I go back to my chart to seek some solace.

I look for the first resistance that I think would discourage the bulls if it's not broken. That would be the support from Monday's session. 722.35 (in lilac - my favorite color - dotted line on my chart).

Then I look for the first support that I think would send the bears covering if it's not breached. Yesterday's low. 707 (in brown dotted line on my chart).

As far as I'm concerned, I don't care about all the other support and resistance between them. By a certain time, if either one of them has been tested but not breached, that will give me a rough idea of who's going to be running for cover.

On some days, the lines are not tested at all before market opens. That's when I don't get an entry pre-market. Those are the days I play by ear and SCALP.

Back to today. On my charts there are lines below and above my lilac and brown dotted lines. Those are my DREAM profit-targets. When looking for these lines, I look at where ER2 will likely hit by the end of the trading session. The support and resistance lines that will hold are the ones that have never been tested before or tested just once or twice. I look for those lines. But if they are too near (ER2's range is hardly less than 10 points per day), I look for the next line above when I'm looking for resistance, and the next line below when I'm looking for support.

For today, I'm bearish. So I'll be expecting ER2 to test 722. If it does, and test it several times before 830, I'll enter short and set my stop loss a few ticks above 722. My profit target will be 712 (Sep 4's low, which I think is likely to be where it will pause before making the next move). That's a 10 point move. If I get in with 2 contracts, I'll let my 2nd one run and set my profit target at 707 (yesterday's low).

On scalping days, I look at 5-min chart (I use 1 min chart to make sure I'm not shorting when price is moving up) and use Fib for resistance and support.

So, as far as I'm concern, all the other support and resistance lines on all the other time frames except the 30-min's are invisible to me.

For now, ER2 is trading in a range between 712 and 719. If it goes up and doesn't break above 719, it will mean that it's another scalping day for me (not entering coz 722 will be at the back of my mind. It's a line that remains to be tested).

HOW I SCALP THE ER2

The above is the correct chart for Sep 10.

The one shown in my posting yesterday was the chart for Sep 9's trading.

So, I ended up making 3 scalps yesterday because I didn't want to take a pre-market entry at 718 (a 4-point risk, since I expected 722.35 to be tested SOMETIME in the day and I had no idea when that'll be).

718 became resistance for the day. ER2 did go up to just touch 722 before coming back down again, finding support at around 715 at market close.

On non-trending days, I keep a lookout for patterns like double and triple tops and bottoms (tops mostly of course, since I'm bearish).

On a day that starts choppy, I focus on the 1min-chart, only stealing glances at the 5min now and then.

The 5min chart on such days totally stumps me. At about 10:40am EST yesterday, I was finally able to see a triple top taking shape. In general though, the 5min charts are NOT friendly on a day like yesterday.

Best to use the 1min.

On trending days, I use fib for entry on the 5min chart. I'll wait for the first wave to be formed (on days that I don't get an entry by 8:30am EST). When it retraces (on a down day, the first bullish candle is a sign), I draw a fib retracement. ER2 usually retraces to fib 38.2% - so that is where I draw my resistance (again, I'm referring to a down day).

I do not take a trade at the resistance though. The resistance is simply the price that I think ER2 will retrace to. If the next candle move above that line, I'll expect it to retrace to 50% or even to 61.8%.

ER2 will usually consolidate within the area bound by where it stops going down and the resistance level - with 3 to 4 short body candles. I will go in when it moves out of this range (that is, if ER2 retraces by only 38.2%. If it retraces beyond that to 50% or 61.8%, it usually will go up in channels of ABC corrective waves, and form tops and bottoms and mountains and valleys, on its way down. That will be a topic for another day)

Sometimes it goes back up a little before falling by 3 to 5 points. It's a chance that I have to take.

Sometimes I wait for a bearish candle to close below that range first. Sometimes I don't. It depends on how nervous I feel the market is.

On a lazy down day, I take my time, coz on these days, ER2 could retrace to 50% and I don't want to take that ride UP.

On a nervous sell-off day, everything happens fast and I go in when I see the chance.

I exit when price starts plunging. My target is usually around 1 to 2 points. So far, I've found it hard to hold for 2 points. The ER2 is predictable only IN RETROSPECT. Ironic. But true.

I find it easier to just take profits off the table whenever I can in a market like this. This is simply not a time to go in for a killing, for me personally. I could end up getting killed.

I'm making fewer trades now than before, because I don't have to make up for losing trades (which usually were winning trades that turned into a loss while I waited for my 2-point gain).

And I don't run as quickly as I used to. Now I wait for market to do what it has to do before giving me the plunge that I'm waiting for.

The challenge is in knowing when waiting in confidence becomes HOPING.

Knowing what the general market sentiment is (for the day and the past few days) helps here. In a generally uncertain market like the one we're seeing since the beginning of this week, the likelihood that price will go south is higher than the converse. Which is why I still can't make myself BUY.

But I'm always anticipating a crazy up day, hence I watch up for signs that ER2 is turning up.

The line that I set for the day on my 30-min chart, the line that makes bulls run - that's my POINT OF NO RETURN.

If I decide to hold any trade, and ER2 hits that point, and stays up, I'll exit. It's not happened yet. That day will have to be a day that offers a very attractive potential reward for me to want to take that risk.