ES Trades 4/17 - Scratch, Salvage, Scalp

3 trades - all Longs.

Scratched the 1st, held the 2nd, and scalped the 3rd.

Reason for entering long:
Gathered ES could bounce at 857.5 after coming down from peak of 867.
The main reason is a tad difficult to explain. I watch the hourly chart, keep track of patterns, use Fib on upward and downward moves for the month to gauge how stretched the current move is, go over the past few days' charts to give me some clues as to who will be wanting out of their position today.

Protective stop:
852 - Peak is a bearish engulfing pattern with one of the candles' long upper shadow sticking out prominently. I trust S/R formed by bullish/bearish candlestick patterns to hold. As usual, I had removed it as price started coming down gradually in a downsloping channel. My stop is there to protect me from bull traps, not to be run by floor traders.

D's been asking me to keep him updated on Citi but I was too busy watching my charts. Ok, that's not true. I simply didn't take him seriously. I couldn't. He's just too hilarious.

Taking a break and will likely trade the US session.

ES Trades 4/16 - Still A Scalper

This really tickles me: I took a scalp and earned in 6 minutes exactly what took me 12 hours to earn/scratch earlier.

Traded the most primitive way - no indicators, no ticks, don't know what DOW's doing, don't know what companies have released or are releasing earnings (just know that a bunch of them are). I had my eyes on my 5min and 1hour. That's all.

Went in LONG after signal candle broke out of a consolidation of dojis. Signal candle had closed below resistance, but that break out of those doji's range would give it enough momentum to break resistance, I gathered, and the breaking of that resistance would give it even more momentum to go for the next resistance. On the hourly, price was so near to 848 resistance - candle was less than a point away from it, more than half way into it's previous candle (bearish candle)'s body, and 25 minutes away from closing. ES would at least attempt to close back above 848 resistance on the hourly. Stars were all aligned, and I waited for my signal candle to move just 1 tick above the high of the 3 dojis.

I can't help but prefer scalping to any other mode during US trading hours.

Lord Tedders:
To answer your question, what I mean by the "saner" way to trade is this: If I'm looking to buy, I find a place where I think price is low enough to get in, then find a place where I think price won't fall below and call that a "protective stop", and finally look for a major resistance (hopefully far enough to satisfy my appetite) and then I enter my trade, and then I get out of my chair and go play with my cats.

Well, that's just in theory of course. In practice, I watch my chart like a hawk for as long as I'm in position so that I can save it when market does something crazy. Today I stared at my chart for a straight 12 hours. I think it's something that only cavemen can understand. LOL!

ES Trades 4/16 - Narrow Escape

I have a vision that ES's breaking out of that no good range. It hadn't plunged on a triple top pattern, surely that must mean something. The market's just crazy noisy these days. We have those calling the bulls stupid and we have the bears calling the bulls naive. Whatever. I listen only to charts and candles.

So this was what I did with my vision:

I know, they look like really dumb trades. But they are not. The first one I've simply bet on a follow through on the bullish move. Didn't happen. Gave me a bearish engulfing at the peak! Scratched trade. Price nose-dived - 10 points in 10 mins. Was so proud of myself. Then came a piercing pattern that closed above support. No reason not to act on a piercing pattern (totally forgot that we are still at price peak, piercing pattern means NOTHING!), so I BOUGHT. Pattern failed, but my stop was at 840. Bad idea. I really have to stop condoning a choppy market. I was going to give it 10 points just to prove I was right. When will I learn, I wonder.

Although I finally bailed (too tired fighting frightened bulls!!!), I'm still optimistic that ES will test high of 870. Piercing pattern on the hourly after price came down had kept me in the game (still wondering if that was actually a good thing), and I still think it's going to help propel price to 870.

I am SO going to scalp ES UP later.

Yup, I never learn.

DON'T BUY AT THE TOP!!! And RESPECT EVENING STARS, especially when they appear on your HOURLY chart!!!!

But I'm still a brave bull. D agreed. LOL!

ES Trades 4/15 Part 3 - Scalping With IB Sucks

Tricky session (Asia & Europe sessions are so much tamer!). Relied mainly on candlesticks and chart patterns and heaps of INTUITION.

When scalping, I've always used IB's booktrader. Today's the first day in weeks perhaps that I've opened it.

It SUCKS.

It's slow, and freezes at times when I click on it.

Regarding the USD 17 bad trade - I had wanted to SELL, and my order was not filled (not supposed to happen coz I always sell BELOW market when I'm catching a momentum). Didn't notice that (my fault), and covered seconds later, only to realize I had just BOUGHT. Nice, just when ES was plunging. Bailed at once, taking a 1 tick loss. I have no problem with a 1 tick loss. What I hate is not being able to scalp in peace!

This is the last time I'm using IB's Booktrader. In fact, from next month on, I won't be using IB.

Just downloaded Infinity Futures' software, and will get in touch with a rep that Emini Player has introduced (Thanks EP!).

I am truly sick of IB.

Charlie, look, I do that too - blame my platform, my broker, etc etc! LOL!

ES Trades 4/15 Part 2 - Scalping With Hard Stop

Took a quick scalp (BUY) and used a tight hard stop. The moment I hit "transmit", I knew I was going to get stopped out. Talk about being intuitive and utterly imbecilic at the same time.

Simply unbelievable how quickly I unlearn old skills!

Went in again, this time focusing on momentum instead of thinking about stops. Got out when candle was a tick away from the previous high. Waited for a retracement. Retracement became reversal, so no play.

Am looking for a long setup. Relying on hourly chart for a bullish pattern. No more scalping for now.

ES Trade 4/15

Trade #1:

Work up at 7am local time (7pm N.Y. time), and saw the gap down on ES 5min, and a long legged doji that clearly rejected 833. Also noticed a higher support at 833.5.

On the hourly, clusters of hammer and spinning top like candles have all closed above support at 834, the previous peak on the hourly. A support I trust enough to take a trade on the long side. The consolidation of prices after a series of strong bearish candles is telling of waning bearish momentum, at least for the time being.

Entered long after price has made a low higher than 833.5. Hadn't thought too much about entry price; focus was on where to put a protective stop.

My only rule for the trade was to get out on any unexpected movements on the 5min and 1hour. I expected price to test 833 support and to chop around until it breaks above 836.75. I also wanted to see very subtle higher lows. Was paying attention to candlestick patterns, and expected to see failure of bearish patterns (e.g. hanging men - which usually work only at extreme highs; the hammer on the other hand, is expected to work after any price decline).

ES indeed probed 833, went beneath it to touch 832.75 briefly and bounced back up, forming another long legged hammer that reinforced the 832-833 support. Didn't move my stop at 832. I figured if price were to get there, most sellers will see no reason to run.

Took profit at 840. It's a nice number.

What we have now is a very round bottom and the potential of it turning into a cup with handle is certainly high. But I'm no longer looking to buy. Will see how price react to 844.25. Should ES be stopped there, it could end up back at around 835.

ES 4/14

There were really quite a number of warnings before the sell-off:
1) Partial Rise on the hourly chart
2) A consolidation of candles and engulfing patterns that reinforce the 854 resistance before the death drop from 857
3) Uptrend has hit fib 211.8 - a little stretched
4) On daily chart, ES was rounding at the top

The irony is that despite seeing a triple top, and waiting the whole day for ES to break below hourly support, I had missed the setup. Didn't chase. Will see what develops tmrw.

D got home half an hour before market open, and after we've had dinner and done all the talking about our day, I was too distracted and tired to trade.

Am going to start a new routine: 2 trades in the morning (local time), and 2 trades in the evening (US trading session) and SLEEP in between.

My 2 trades today:

ES Trade 4/14 (Part 2)

2nd trade:

On hourly, price went below a previous resistance and came up again in what appeared to be a bullish engulfing (but not quite) pattern. A second bullish candle closed above resistance and I wondered if I was looking at a 3 white soldier pattern in the making.

On 5 min, A Cup with Handle formation (I simply call that a "W") has become quite apparent and price has gone above the rim of the cup.

Went in long at the "handle" - a familiar "Resistance-Turn-Support" setup for me. This was a limit entry ie. not a precise entry as my decision to enter was really based on several reasons - none of which has anything to do with the 5 min except that it had conveniently given me a "W" pattern.

I actually had 2 targets in mind - 854 (a tad above fib 138.2) and 861.25 (a tad above Fib 211.8). Since I had entered on 1 contract, I had to take profit at 854. Besides, candle was getting too long too fast ie. my exit signal.

Will see what develops above 854. Right now, I'm looking at 2 hanging men and a candle with a long upper shadow right beneath 854. A throwback to around 852 (the top of the cup handle) will have me considering another long entry.

Hourly is forming what looks like a triple top to me. So my going long really has nothing to do with bullishness. I'm just buying to where I think ES will be stopped.

ES Trade 4/14

This is the earliest I've entered a trade - at about 9am local time. It was a setup (short below a previous support, after price has formed 3 lower peaks) I waited for til 3pm N.Y time - it didn't happen, so I turned in.

As usual, I didn't want to sit through a retracement, took profit when candle got relatively long, and when price was very near to a minor support on the hourly chart.

The plan is to find another short entry if price were to pullback to the 849 to 854 area. Otherwise, I'll look for long entry near 840.

I'm neither bullish nor bearish. Anything can happen given all the earnings that are coming out this week.

Relying mainly on S & R and candlestick patterns for entry.

Exit is always based on momentum. When a move gets too fierce, I'll bail. So, yes, I'm always leaving some profits behind. Easier to get out when people are still wanting to get in.

Stop Loss (Hard stop - it's there as a safety net, I still scratch when I see price doing things I don't expect) :
When shorting, at previous peak on hourly chart; when buying, previous low.

Am giving this way of trading a last chance. If it doesn't improve my confidence, I'm switching back to scalping. Trial period: 1 month (if I don't get so depressed that I kill myself first).

Changing Broker

Am officially looking for a different broker. Tired of being restricted by IB's margin requirement during the pre-market hours.

I'm getting increasingly frustrated with the non-scalping style of trading. It isn't that I'm not giving time to test out the new method. It's just that it feels all wrong for me.

Scalping is intense and tiring - but it suits my personality.

To make scalping worthwhile for me, I need to put on bigger positions. I don't add to winning positions - if I'm trading 5 contracts, I'll put all 5 on at the same time, and get out with 5. It's worked for me.

Started screwing up only after I started scalping on single contract. It's always to do with overstaying - I don't scratch a trade that doesn't work immediately fast enough, and I don't take profit (too small!) fast enough before it becomes a loss.

So, no more IB for me. Its margin structure is ultra complicated, and gives me no peace when I trade.

Am exploring Global Futures. In the process of applying for a demo account.

ES Trades 4/13

Nothing much to talk about with regards to today's trades. Went in 4 times just to get a feel of market sentiment.

Total loss: USD 150.

Still working on focusing on weekly result.

Reply To Samson

Thank you, Samson, for the comment you left on the post that I've deleted. I don't think I'm better than most (but thanks for saying I am) but I know I'm not worse than some self-righteous AH.

I've been going over the reasons that I wrote that post, and I conclude that they are valid.

So, I've put my Queen Merla rant back on, and I'm never removing it again.

I have almost 50 friends that I've removed from my life - and I won't have them guessing what they've done to warrant the treatment.

I never want to feel bad about being a bitch again. And I'm definitely not going to entertain any further emails concerning my bitchy posts.

I'm purging the episode from my system for good.

ES 4/13

ES Daily:
Looks pretty straightforward to me. The expectation is that price should go up to 870, then 930. Along the way there would be some profit taking - in the absence of surprises (keeping my fingers crossed), we should see price hit 930, then retrace to form a higher significant low at 800, maybe even 740. In the event of a surprise, we're likely to see a reversal back to 662 low.

ES 15min:
Looks like ES is attempting to close gap and test 854.5. If it succeeds in doing so, more buyers are likely to get on board.

Should the opposite happen - we'll have fib 161.8, fib 132.8 and fib 100 as support from where ES could bounce back up to test 854. Scenario 2 is likely to freak some buyers out. Lots of bear traps too.

Game plan:
Play by ear. Where ES is now is tricky for me.

H*** Cow!!

Talk about bear traps!!

What I've learnt about an Ascending broading wedge is that price doesn't stay below it even after breaking out. It will want to test the ceiling for at least the 3rd time first. If it's a broadening top, price will come down from the top only after the previous high has been tested (840 -850 in this case).

This is the reason that I only scalp a counter trend. When I trade (holding for more than a candle) against trend, it's usually coz I've jumped into the trade without first determining the general trend - or more aptly, the general sentiment - for the day.

Now is about the time that our friends in US would have gotten out of bed. Those who held their shorts from yesterday would see the uptrend (fresh eyes, unlike mine after having stared at the chart for 12 hours) and would want to cover before the holiday. I'm just guessing. Or maybe people are not so pessimistic about the many data that are going to be reported in less than half an hour after all. Who knows.

Hard stops - to use or not to use? Always a dilemma.

Was just telling D that on second thoughts, I'm staying away when US market opens. Charts get crazy pre-events - like a holiday!

ES Trades 4/9 - Resistance-Turned-Support With Inside Bar Setup

Above shows the 2 trades I've taken today on one of my favorite setups.

Am not pleased with the entry for the 1st trade. The best longs are the ones taken when price has taken an "M" shape (personally, when I want to sell, I like to see "M"s) right at support, with a bearish candle closing below the support, followed immediately by a bullish one that closes above it (if I were selling, I'd know I'm busted - which I was, just yesterday. I learn.). The bullish candle here happened to be an inside bar - great for low risk entry.

I'm not so convinced that we're going to break 840 anymore, although we seem to be on an uptrend for now.

ES punched through floor of Ascending Broadening Wedge in a Partial Rise pattern but quickly went back up in a typical "w" formation, catching some bears by surprise I guess. Bulls should be next. Resistance at 832.25 formed by a Hanging Man is probably going to hold. A break above that level will have me looking out for a SHORTING opportunity.

I don't read volume, so I'm just going to rely on candle stick patterns and how and where candles open and close.

Then, I lay my bet.

It's a game of probability - I get it, D.

P&L for my trades for now (am posting it since today's the last trading day of the week):

ES Trades 4/8 & 4/9

Chart above shows my last 2 trades. Closed the last just 30 minutes ago.

If ES is able to stay above 830, I'll be officially bullish for the day. I'm neutral for now. Given that ES has hit 423.6% with a 5-point seed, I usually would expect it to start coming back down. That said, it's done a fairly decent retracement to 812 near to market close yesterday - that, plus the bear trap, are reasons I am leaning more to the bull's side for now.

Plan for today is still to trade familiar setup, and will use indicators to identify main trend. My indicators are giving extremely bullish read. But I'm going to be sticking with price actions - simple S & R, Fib and such. I'm watching 828.75 very closely. It could turn out to be the level that stops ES. We have a breakout that's not quite confirmed yet. Could become a bull trap.

ME, ME, ME, AGAIN

I've not stopped trading. Traded the ES and Euro using a more systematic approach. The system was ok. But I suck at following it, and ended up losing a couple of hundred instead of winning a thousand had I stuck with the entry and exit signals.

I'm going to use some time to test out both - my usual discretionary way, and the one that relies mainly on signals given by my system. I have 10k left in my TF trading account. D asked if I want him to top it up to 20. I turned it down. I'll make my money back. I much prefer the 40k he's going to transfer to my account after I've figured out how I'm going to trade. 40 is not an arbitrary number. It's for me to trade TF without leverage. This is the only time I like being a woman! Muahahahaha!

Still looking for a job though. At my level, I'm not going to find it via the conventional way. I've approached an old friend, and will see how it goes. Worst case scenario: I give up my rank and settle for anything that's available.

The modelling job is a disaster. It all started sometime before Xmas - I was approached by an agent when I was out to grab a book. I didn't stop for him, so he followed me to the mall. When he was done talking, he asked for my age. I asked him what he was looking at. He said mid twenties. I said,"Close. Add 10 to it and that's mine." What followed was complete silence. Deafening. I had to help the poor chap end the conversation in a way that wasn't awkward for the both of us. Anyway, he gave me his namecard, and got my contact number. 2 weeks later, they had my portfolio done up. Sea couldn't recognize me in the ultra heavy makeup, power suits and glittering evening dresses. She particularly hated the way they bunned my hair. I suppose they had to make me look my age.

Then I started getting called up for castings -for all the wrong commercials. A couple of them involved babies and mother-in-laws. Whenever I appeared for casting, I would get funny looks and asked really strange questions to verify my age. I'm glad they didn't have to verify my gender. My nieces said I'm a boy. D said I'm a boy. Wherever I go, folks call me "kiddo". The agency finally started turning down "working mum" assignments for me.

Then I started getting called up for lingerie ads, which I had to turn down. There's only 1 place that I'll wear my lingerie, and that's my cave. The funniest were the anti smoking ads. For ethical reason, I had to turn them down. TWICE. Really classic.

The last one was a beauty commercial. I didn't make it for casting coz I got cold feet. I can't pose. I remember vividly still a casting from a couple of weeks back where I was told to pose like a "SUPER model". I burst out laughing. Reflex. It was too darn FUNNY. I didn't get the job of course. Really pissed those professionals off.

For unknown reasons, the client postponed the beauty commercial casting to accomodate me. I couldn't make it a second time, coz I was stuck in my 2.5k losing trades! And they postponed it again for me. Really odd. Anyway, I'm convinced that I'm not model material. The posing issue aside, my age is always going to be a problem. If a company's looking for twenty-year-olds, they have many authentic twenty-year olds to choose from. If they're looking for a woman in her mid-thirties, they'll expect her to at least NOT look like a kid. The mum ads were just too funny.

So, I'm officially free as a bird again. Until I REALLY start job hunting, that is. D says that whenever I wanted something bad enough, I had always found a way to get it.

True.

Perhaps I'm simply afraid of being turned down should I really start looking.

I'll continue to post trading setups that I like. I'll post analysis whenever I find anything that catches my eyes. I'll post charts on trades that I take whenever I find a tradable setup. But I'll be posting the P&L for each trade only at the end of each week. That's just to get my brain to focus on weekly results instead of daily ones.

Silence & Solitude

Am taking time off from the market. Since mid 2007, I've been lost, and in search of interesting things/human beings to keep my mind occupied. I'm an all-or-none person, and life doesn't treat someone like me well.

But I can't change me.

So, I'm still going to go ahead and quit trading for a while.

I'm not even going to look for a job. And I've been rejecting castings. I have no idea what I want to do. But I definitely know what I don't want to BE - an OBJECT.

I need to clean up my messy life and start doing my quiet time again. The last time I had my daily quiet time was in 2007. No wonder I was lost after that.

When I'm back writing again, I hope I've at least found myself...and, preferably, a full-time job too.

Eur Futures (6E) Trades 4/7 - Clobbered But Still Alive & Kicking

Trading is the hardest thing I've ever done.

Was trading the Euro futures today.

1st trade was a scratch. Broke even. Well, made 6 bucks actually. Ha Ha.

2nd trade went ok - I was making a little more than 20 bucks, so I held it. Without warning, price went south (I had gone in long). I followed my rule, and covered when it fell through support. I usually would have taken a smoke break after closing a position. But that was a strong support that price went through, so, I sold right away. In less than 1 second, price shot back up and closed above support and the next candle opened above its close. Again, I followed my rule, and went out at a loss that was bigger than the first one.

I was then in the red by 467 bucks.

Thought I saw a signal to go in long again, so I went in. At one point, I was up 300 bucks. I'm so used to seeing big numbers that I have become numb to them. I held on, and believed in the pattern that I was seeing.

As fate would have it, price went plummeting after forming mountains after mountains that had higher peaks and higher valleys giving you the illusion that we were on an uptrend. Had I stepped away from my screen, and looked at my charts from a distance, I would have seen we were trading in range and it's only a matter of time that price would break out of range to start a trend.

I lost 1200 in that single trade.

All in all, I was about 1700 in the red.

When price fell to one of the major supports and started forming hammers after hammers, I went in long again.

I kept watching price plunge through one support after another, but it had its way of making me believe that indeed had wanted to go up. All the hammers and dojis failed miserably.

My morning star never came. I wouldn't blame it. I realized then that price can continue to fall through supports as long as bears don't see the need to run. What is 2 days of sell-off, compared to days of rallies before that? Absolutely nothing.

None of today's trades was about revenge trading. I wasn't angry with anything, I just didn't feel defeated enough to call it quits.

What I learnt about myself today:

• I can let profits run ONLY when trading FAMILIAR patterns
  
• I over-analyze
• I should have kept running - if I choose to continue to trade, I'll have to be prepared to run whenever price is not doing what I expect it to do. The only time I can put running behind me is when I have NIL position.
• There's only so much that knowledge can do for me

Am staying with the eur today. Once I see the pattern I had wanted to see all day today, I'll still take a trade. But this time, I'll run when I have to.

I'm down USD2400 for the day.

ES 4/6

I'm actually bullish (short-term) on the ES (when price is so low, all you can see on the charts tend to be hammers and morning stars and such...the hanging men and evening stars are all far, far away on top...given that you can't really trust a bearish pattern at price low, the choice is rather obvious..) ...provided 800 support holds. If it does, I can see it going up to 950.

I'm not selling the ES. And I'm not buying before a decent correction (something between 825 and 800). If I'm better off staying on the sideline during the US session, I will. After all, I've done my job today, and I'm not going to let market take away my money trading signals I can't trust.

Update: ES stopped at 848 and coming down. A Fib retracment of 38.2 will bring it to around 823. If price were to move back up from there, I'll probably buy.