TF 1/26

DOW Daily

• Fri's session formed a hammer - if price moves up from there, it's not too difficult to imagine the development of a round bottom

SPX Daily

• Ditto for SPX daily
• And, Inverted Scallop is still intact - price found support at Fib retracement 61.8

TF 5min

• Partial Decline within Broadening Formation
• Inverted Scallop

TF Hourly

• Inverted Head & Shoulder
• No follow-through after breakout below triangle, twice

TF Daily

• Increased volume on previous 2 sessions - Thurs & Fri - barely pushed price below the low of Wed's session
• Fri's session is a hammer - not a very strong one, but a hammer nonetheless
  

There's not a single reason for me to believe that TF is going down to test its previous low. As far as today goes, I'm bullish. On the hourly, there's visibly a resistance at around 458. However, I'm inclined to think that TF could go up to 462-465.

Stock Contest - Complacent Panda's Team

Complacent Panda is looking for traders to join his team in a stock contest. For details, check out his post here.

The contest sounds like fun... It's a pity that though I have the time, I haven't the experience trading stocks...

I think CP would love to have more than 10 people, so if you're interested, do drop him a note.

My Not-So-Sophisticated Trading Methodology

Extracted from an email from Sam:

The reason I am writing is that I am a beginner trader and still papertrading US equities with losses most of the time. I would like to learn your techniques and methodology as they seems very sophisticated. Could you please give me a background on how you got started on trading, your reading material, and how you developed your skills.

Sam, my response is going to disappoint you.

First, I don't have a sophisticated trading technique or method. In fact, I don't have any technique, let alone a sophisticated one.

Whatever that I do to prepare for each trading session, I've documented them on this blog. You can look for the entries under the label "How I Trade The ER2" and "Premarket Analysis". Whatever that I do after market open, I've also documented them, and you can find the entries under the labels "Trades (wins)", "Trades (losses)", "AAR", "Emini Futures".

After you've gone through what I've written, you'll notice that I don't really have a system or method on which I depend to make my trading decisions.

Perhaps my interpretation of "technique" and "methodology" differs from yours. But having been asked on numerous occasions similar questions, I assume your definition of these words is what I think it is.

If you're looking for trading systems, you'll find a lot being offered on trading forums. You'll be given a set of indicators with specific parameters, and step-by-step instructions that you'll be told that you have to follow EXACTLY if you wish to replicate the success of the person who's shared the system. And most are very sophisticated.

I'm a chart reader, and that's all I am. Day in day out, I feel like I'm trading not just the market but my own psychology as well.

I read the news daily, but individual events that are reported do not have any bearing on the preparation of my trading day. I've written a fair bit on that on my postings that you'll find under "How I Trade The ER2".

I check the market internals prior to market open, and during the trading session, but I don't care about statistics like the following (because I have yet to appreciate their relevance):

"......During the month of December and January, Nikkei hit a closing high of 8760 never going above the 9000 level while the S&P had 4 days in December and 5 days in January (the first 5) above 900. The correlation between the daily changes in the S&P and the change in the dollar versus yen, over the last year has been about 70%, with hardly a contemporaneous day with the dollar down big and the S&P up, or the dollar up big with the S&P down...."

HOW I GOT STARTED

You asked how I got started on trading. I don't really know where you want me to begin, and I'm going to assume that what you really want to know is a) if it's a push or pull factor, and b) the journey I took to make a switch from working for someone to trading for a living.

Re a)
I was never interested in investment and trading related matters when I was with the public sector. Before that I was with a local bank selling investment-related products, and I hated my job (which makes me wonder why I chose to go back to banking after I quit the public sector....)

To cut a long story short:
I was to sit for several exams for this new banking job. I was a relationship manager and my customers were those that got to wait in nice lounges sipping lattes while waiting for their transactions to go through. The part I loved in my very short stint there was the studying for the exams bit. I really thought that whatever that I was supposed to know before I stepped into my new role, I was going to get a lot of hands-on experience through serving my customers. Little did I know that what I had liked about my job was actually handled by the bank's Investment Analysts, and what I was hired to do was simply to sell. I quit after a couple of months, coz I didn't want to spend the rest of my life doing something I hated.

Re b)
My trading journey began when I took a 4-session trading course after I left the bank, and I paid USD2500 for the course. The one thing I'm still benefitting from that class til today is a friend I got to know there. Ken and I spent many afternoons sharing information and ideas about trading, and it was Ken that introduced me to the concept of price actions. It was through him that I came to know about Elliot Waves, chart patterns, trading the futures and forex market, and the importance of staying the course and managing my emotions. I was paper-trading on and off, and Ken was always the one that gently nudge me to start getting serious with trading. In a nutshell, when I think "trading", Ken will always be the first person to come to mind. He was both my trading buddy and my mentor, coz he had started trading years before and was always ready to share his experiences. Most of the books that I read were recommended by Ken. And I read A LOT of books (not cover-to-cover for every one of them of course).

9 months after I first knew anything about trading, I started trading real money. A few months ago, I attended a course that Michael was conducting, and through his course, I learnt things that I was never taught before - coz I had totally skipped the "beginner"'s phase when I first started out. To know more about Michael's course, please go to the label "Trading Coaches and Courses" and check out my entries there.

To be fair to Michael, my lack of a disciplined approach and system is not the result of his teachings. I learnt what I had to know about trading from him, but I made a choice to seek my own path, coz I knew from the bottom of my heart that THAT's the only way that I would make it to where Michael is today. There is no short cut for me. I can't simply take his system, trade it, and expect to get his result, coz I'm not him. There might be many who are more like him, who can trade his way, and those are the really fortunate ones.

All in all, I've paid $3700 for the 2 courses (Michael's was a 5-month course that cost about USD1200), read too many books (which I will be posting on a separate blog entry), spent nothing on hardwares (the PCs, monitors, and laptops that I'm using have been around for the longest time coz D is a systems network fanatic and we always have TOO MANY of these stuff - my studies occupies the biggest space in my home), spent nothing on softwares (I use a free charting service - Think or Swim; my only trading expense is commision to my broker - IB - which is USD 4.80 per TF contract per round trade), going to be spending nothing for subscription to vendors (I've cancelled my briefing.com subscription coz I don't use the service at all) and I don't pay for others to give me advice on what to trade and when to push the buttons.

It's a very long-winded response to your question, and not the least bit direct. My apologies. I don't know how else to describe how I ventured into this strange arena called daytrading.

And after making you read such a lengthy note, I'm actually not sure that I am the right person to answer your question. Because I really don't think I have developed the skills that I need to be successful in trading. I am still very much a student of the market. The learning could take years, maybe decades. And really, how does one even go about defining "success" when it comes to trading? How much do I have to be making per week/month/year for me to feel "successful"? What are the other factors, other than those measured in monetary terms, do I have to consider when deciding what constitutes "success"? And the list goes on. Very basic questions that typical novices ask. And I'm just another novice in the field of trading.

If you're still reading this, I have this to say to you: don't go looking for a sophisticated methodology. You might want to enrol in a reasonably priced course that teaches you the basics of trading. Better still, first read books like "Come into my trading room" by Alexander Elder, and "Stock Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager. Dr Brett's blog (on my blogroll) has a lot of valuable advice on money management, and you should really check them out. Being able to keep and grow their trading capital is what separates the successful traders from those who are not. Then read a lot of good blogs to get a sense of what to expect when you're trading with real money.

After you've done the above, and if you think you still want to attend classes, look for credible trainers like Michael.

Again, I'm sorry if I made you feel like you've wasted your time reading this. Fact is, if you're like the majority of those who think that trading is like learning how to ride a bicycle ie. once you can balance on 2 instead of 4 wheels, you can look forward to many hours of joyous rides in the woods forever (you'll never FORGET how to cycle and how to balance), you're going to be sorely disappointed when you go into the market. The market is ever-changing, and no systems or methods will work forever in it. But as a living breathing entity, YOU can make the necessary adjustments to stay in the game, PROVIDED that you have a solid foundation: sound knowledge of the market and yourself, and of what trading is about.

Based on the questions that you asked me, I figure you've not read beyond the last few entries I posted. My answers are actually all over my blog. :-)

D Took Off With Our Door

Market's looking healthier...

And that's it for today - no more trading talk. It's a 5-day weekend. For D. Chinese New Year holiday. He's looking forward to lots of shopping....

Had a bizarre dream this morning - whenever I get more than 4 hours of sleep, I start getting funny dreams.

I dreamt that D took off, and took our main door with him.

And this was the conversation that took place while I was still half in dreamland and half awake, and D was 75% in dreamland:

Me: You left!! And you took our door!!
D: .................
Me: Why take the door??!!!
D:....maybe I just wanted to keep the address??
Me:..............$#*$@*!!
D: ....shouldn't you be concerned that I could have been abducted???!!
Me:........ Just don't take the door!!! The house looks weird without it!!! &$#&*#$!!!!

I like D. :-)

TF Trades 1/23

Forget HS and double tops, I went long on the 3rd trade. TF's breakout from the symmetrical triangle on the downside on my 5min chart is clearly busted. And that has been the only pattern that I traded today.

For the first 2 entries, I was buying on TF testing resistance at 436.6. That was the only NEAR certainty to me then: that TF was going UP to test that level. My risk was 1.5 points - I went long after TF has broken above a resistance on 5min, and my entry was about 1.5 points away from that resistance.

For the 3rd entry, I went long again, and my basis for entry was TF's testing of the ceiling of the symmetrical triangle. I didn't care if it would turn out to be a fake breakout. It was precisely because I didn't want to be caught in a fake breakout that I bought on the basis that market wanted to at least hit that point (443.3), and not on the hope that price will really take off from there. A more likely scenario will be a smack down by players waiting to catch bulls at those critical levels.

In a market like today's (a POSSIBLE bullish reversal), there's no way I'm letting profits run. They could very well really run away and not come back. My objective for this month and possibly the next, is to maintain a net positive day every day. I need it for my morale. Dec 08 has done a lot of damage to my spirit. I'm nursing it back to health. That's my focus for now.

Not feeling rapturous over a USD 95 profit, but am happy that I'm starting to feel a lot more in syn with the market, and most importantly, in touch with my heart. I know what I want, and I can tell now if it's realistic to want those things.

A good day, in general. And it's good to wrap it up now.

3 scalps. All winning. Profit: USD 95

TF hourly & TF 15min

Performance Scorecard

TF 1/23 - Scared Bears?

TF 5min

Volume pattern's looking very much like TF's going to form a head & shoulder/double top. There's a clear lack of fresh buying, just lots of bear covering. And one would think that THAT would encourage the bulls. But no, no one's buying.

Went in for 2 scalps - both long - and was looking to buy again on pull back. But now I'm not so sure I still want to buy. I'm not even going to buy that test up to the previous peak. Granted TF's traded from below pivot support 1 to above it, it's still trading below pivot.

Looking to sell double tops/HS (on 1min and 5min). Entry signal: TF closing below 434. Won't be going in before that - don't want to be caught in one of those nasty bear traps. Market just seems a tad oversold to me.

TF 1/23 & DOW's Diamond And Pipe Bottoms

TF Hourly

This is what I'm thinking (and it's all conjecture of course):

1) TF is going to break out below the symmetrical triangle, finding support however, at 429 to 431, and move back up into the triangle, busting the breakout.

2) What follows would be a breakout above the top downtrend line (in blue), and then TF would be aiming for 475.

I'll be looking to buy during a pull back in the event that price breaks out of the blue top downtrend line. If that's too near 458 resistance, I'll wait for price to close above 458 before going long.

While waiting, I'll be scalping. Again, if market gets choppy, even if TF were to hit those numbers, I'm still not going to hold any positions for more than a few ticks.

DOW Daily

Busted diamond bottom. Or is it? Diamond bottoms don't usually fail. Besides, the pipe bottoms are providing support still. I'm speculating that market could very well close in the positive territory today.

TF Trades 1/22

3 TF trades, all winning.

1st trade was more like a scratch. 2nd trade was a disaster - got carried away and ignored 400 support. Sat on a near 7 point loss at one point. Had initially wanted to get out after trade went against me by 5 ticks but didn't get filled and price shot up by 2 points the next moment.

I decided to just sit coz all my charts were telling me a bearish story, and TF was trading below pivot throughout. Besides price was trading in a range, and that gave me some assurance that it will come back to near where I entered.

So, no sweat for me, but D was sitting on the edge of his chair. When I got out with a 4 tick gain, he was so relieved he asked for tylenol (somehow the release of tension brings on migraine in his case).

I had not held on to the position for more profit coz 400 was precisely the place where TF could go up on a double bottom formation (and it did go up). My plan was that if indeed it were to continue to go down instead, I would get in after TF has closed BELOW 400, that is of course after it's pulled back to that level to test it as a valid resistance.

Missed the trade coz I was busy with something else, and it wasn't the timeframe that I would trade. Anyway, when I returned at 1pm EST, TF as gone back up to trade above 440. My plan was to short it at fib retracement level 38.2 or 50. Fortunately I didn't, coz 1min chart failed to give me a sign when TF reached that 2 fib levels, and TF indeed continued to trade up.

However I managed to get in for a quick scalp at around 1:30pm est.

TF ended up testing the high at 448 and went beyond it in fact. And on 5min, it closed above my slowest EMA and traded above it for a while.

It's clear that this is no longer my game, and momentum's lacking both going up and coming down.

Time to call it a day. Profit: USD 115

TF 1min & 5min & IB trade view

TF hourly & 15min
Performance Scorecard

TF 1/22 & An Anniversary

TF Hourly

For the life of me, I cannot imagine TF continuing to go up. There's going to be a throwback to the channel, or to pivot at 448.3. If it stays above that, then good for it. If it reaches 470 and stays above that, that's going to be a clear victory for the bulls.

I feel like I'm writing a fairy tale. It's crap.

I envision TF to be stopped by 458 resistance, and plunge below pivot at 448 in search of its burial spot.

Today's a special day. It is special to me. Am going to ditch trading to explore the world from which I have run away for so long. Probably catch a few movies by myself - I love the pitch black darkness of a cinema hall - and then loot a nearby bookstore.

TF Trades 1/21

2 scalps. Calling it a day. Got home 30mins after opening bell, and watched price drift around aimlessly.

TF's still hovering just beneath pivot. Buying was not an attractive option even though all 4 indices were blue. on all 4 timeframes, prices were just choppy.

Went for shorts anyhow, but couldn't stay at all coz there was hardly any real momentum down.

Turning in early. Throat and nose are killing me. Damn those virus!

Profit: USD 70

Performance Scorecard

DOW,RUT & TF 1/21

DOW Daily

I'm inclined to take the view that the market is going to continue to go down in the next 2 to 3 sessions. Fundamentals (advances/decliners, sector performance, the general economic outlook within and beyond the US border, political atmosphere etc, etc) aside, these are the technical reasons on which I have based my view:

1) Hammer failed on substantial volume (highest within the month)

2) Price closed below the lowest valley (8360 - which would be my confirmation entry if I were to trade this pattern) of the triple top formation , pulled back, but was stopped by the confirmation line (8360). Yesterday saw price resuming downward, confirming triple top formation

3) The 7 candles before the hammer look like the 1st leg of a measured move down, and yesterday looked like the beginning of the 2nd leg down, with target pointing dangerously at the 7300 - 7400 region (ie. lower than the previous low)

4) ADX turning up from under 20 (downtrend picking up strength)

RUT Daily

RUT broke out of an ascending broadening formation, and just like DOW, yesterday looked like the beginning of the 2nd leg of its measured move down.

It seems we are revisiting wave 3, and probably on our way to wave 5 straight, if market doesn't find support at its previous low.

TF Hourly

TF is clearly not done going down. 2nd leg of measured move down should reach about 400 on completion. Support at around 415 from daily chart might stop price temporarily, or could be from where TF bounces back up.

TF Trade 1/20

Today's gotta be a trader's dream come true. It's mine at least. No more uncertainty. If the market doesn't find support at 446, it's plunging. Even if it were to find support there, it's going to have to stay above 470. Else, it's plunging too. That's my view. And I'm trading it.

Before any of the above happens, I'm going to stick to getting in and out on momentum. That was my plan. A flexible enough one for me.

Just one scalp - and just one contract - today. Not chasing. Am a really sick bear. The gotta-call-my-family-doctor kind of sick. Am feeling woozy as I type. I can't believe the resilience of this stupid flu virus. Just really hoping that it's not pneumonia AGAIN. I would hate to have to be admitted for weeks this time. Unless they allow my entire workstation to be brought in with me....

My trade. Just one. Profit: USD 175

Performance Scorecard

Sick of Single-Contract Trades

Was going through my past posts again (something I've kept doing since Dec 08 - not coz I like my own writing, but really coz I need desperately to know what lessons I'm missing...), and couldn't help but notice AGAIN that I did do a lot better trading multiple contracts.

It's a fact I can't run away from. Trading multiple contracts is perfect for me coz it's perfect for my appetite. Trading single contract is a drag. And I can't emphasize this enough: I HATE SLOW!

FAST rouses my senses and makes my brain work doubly fast. I was better at bolting at the right time, and I was much, much more willling to quit trading after the morning momentum is over, and much, much more willing to wait til after lunch to resume trading.

I'm sure all these have something to do with my having set a target that has become so ingrained that even if I were to remove the P&L column from my trading platform, I'm mentally keeping scores in absolute dollar amount after having them mentally converted from ticks and points...

The reason that I started trading single contract was so that I could give the market a bit more room to move...but I've not been able to do that, and the only thing I'm giving up is good profits.

I'm a control freak, and I've resigned to the fact that I'll never change. I'm never going to be able to consistently put in a stop and a profit target and then just let my trade run. And if that's the case, why bother with trading 1 contract???

As a matter of fact, the only thing that was bad about trading multiple contracts - for me - was that it was stressful. But not having this stress is detrimental to my trading. I either got complacent (about cutting losses), or greedy (overstaying and seeing profit turn to loss) , or both...I have no idea what kind of freak I am, but I just do better when I'm really stretched. Depression is what hurts my trading. Not stress.

D's eyes are going to roll when he sees this....

TF 1/20

TF (Hourly)

D is optimistic about the market, and I thought I was too. But I've been staring at the TF 1hr chart, and the only thing I'm seeing is that any upward move from where it is right now is going to be stopped by the uptrend line - if not the uptrendline, then 470 resistance - then it's going to tumble down pass 454.5 support to test 436.

Anyway, am going to stick to scalping unless TF gets up to 470 - then I will buy on pull back and target for exit at Fib ext. 161.8 (490).

Should TF drop below 448, I'll just continue to scalp while waiting for it to test 436.

That's the plan for now. Inverted Scallop and all the Triangles in the world are not helping to make me feel more optimistic. The Scallop might, if it gets wider...It's another 10hours to go before market opens... that should give it enough time to complete...

Triangle looks busted. TF has broken out on downside, and if it were to climb back up, that would officially bust it. If that happens, I'll definitely be looking out to buy above 470.

DOW: Weekly & Daily Chart Analysis & Inverted Scallops

DOW WEEKLY

It appears to me that we are now in wave 4 - put another way, it simply means we have yet to see the bottom.

The bottom could be at 6975, which is DOW's previous low (formed in Oct 97), or at around 6000, which is the completion of the 2nd leg of a measured move down in the daily chart (refer to weekly chart above). Details under "DOW DAILY" below.

DOW DAILY

I see an Inverted Scallop developing (the arc in the above chart is the best arc that I can draw...do give it your best shot to visualize a smooth arc that joins the price peaks - that's the shape of a typical Inverted Scallop - although sometimes you will have to use the low, rather than the peak, of the candles to see the arc...you get the drift...)

I personally had found the Inverted Scallops comforting to see in a downtrend during those times that I had entered a LONG position prematurely. It's about the only other pattern that will successfully reverse price (the other pattern is the double/triple bottom that has either hammers or morning stars, or piercing patterns at the bottom - I personally don't trust the harami - but that's just me), especially on intraday basis. Again, that's my personal experience - if I want to see a scallop, I will see a scallop, and I set my stops and targets based on this particular pattern that I have identified.

And since according to Bulkowski (author of Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns), when Inverted Scallops form in a downtrend, it is usually found in the corrective phase of a measured move down (which is what we are seeing on the daily chart now), I know that my odds are getting better that the pattern forming is indeed an inverted scallop.

So, assuming that we are now indeed in wave 4, and assuming that wave 4 ends at 10,700 to 10,800 (refer to daily chart above - 10700 is derived from fib extension; 10800 is visually a resistance), the way it's going up could be via successive Inverted Scallops. A sign of exhaustion of this corrective wave up would be the narrowing of the width of each successive scallops (ie. it takes increasingly shorter time for scallop patterns to complete)

Assuming that price indeed turned back down from there, completing wave 5, which is also the 2nd leg of the measured move down, my target, if I was shorting, would be around 6975 (previous low in Oct 97), or 6000 (performance target for measured move down).

Random Thoughts: picking tops and bottoms & daytrading and swing trading

Having said all of the above, and truth be told, no one can say for sure where the bottom is going to be.

As far as I'm concerned, I'm going to go with the assumption that DOW's going to go as low as 6975, or 6000, or even lower, before it will make a solid bounce to reverse the downtrend that began in 07 (I'm just going to ignore - for now - the arguement that the downtrend actually began way before that and that the rally that we saw prior to Oct 07 was merely a bear rally).

That's the easier scenario - ie. DOW to confirm a bottom, and the market simply looks to trade up from that point until it touches its previous peak at 14200.

Should DOW punch through 6000, or 5000, I'll be prepared for a very difficult trading environment, not unlike the one I've experienced for the past few weeks. The reason is straightforward: prices would be too low to make selling comfortable or even natural for that matter, and the risk involved in going long without having seen an established bottom first is too high to buy - most are going to think like that, and that kind of collective sentiment could create some really freaky looking charts like the ones we've seen on the awfully choppy days lately.

All in all, as a daytrader, my concern is NOT so much about market's trends as it is about the SENTIMENTS surrounding surprises along these trends. Using the above as an illustration, should the majority expect DOW to plunge beneath 5000, then a rally -if it happened -could be a difficult one comprising choppy days and steep downward moves. In this case, taking the side of the bear, and getting aggressive on days plagued by bad news and econ data would be the way that I would go about trading the TF in particular (to use the analogy of poker, this will be the round where I'll go "ALL IN").

For now, it's clear that the market wants to go up. For how long, I don't quite care. I just know that no one knows for sure, everyone's guessing, and constantly looking for the more enlightened to provide some solid answers, and the smallest surprise will send the market drifting in all kinds of directions. Here I am, just scalping away daily - taking my few ticks per scalp - while watching for price to be stopped, turn around, and go back down to find its real bottom this time.

Again, the bottom could be 6000, or 5000, or maybe even 2500 - according to some seriously grisly bears (yup, that included me at one point) - and precisely because I don't have the SLIGHTEST inkling where price will stop nosediving, I'm going to continue to daytrade and scalp only, until I see that it makes sense for me to hold my trades longer. (It wouldn't make sense for me to take trades I'm not comfortable with. But it could make perfect sense for someone less risk averse/more aggressive/better capitalized to actually buy-and-hold, or sell-and-hold RIGHT NOW. There's really no one way to go about trading this market.)

For me to really believe that the market has bottomed, I would have to see successive bullish patterns developing above the 6000 to 6975 support. That's the only way I can be assured that the odds of DOW breaking above its high at 14200 have indeeed increased.

Since market's closed for holiday today, I'm going to take the chance to do something really terrible later - skate with a flu. If I keep believing that I'm sick, I will continue to be sick. That's the way my body works.

Reflections of 2008

With Chinese New Year just days away (Sea, when is it exactly?), I feel it's timely to reflect on the year that's come and gone...For what, I don't know; and really, I don't care. I just feel like doing it.

Well, ok, it's probably coz everyone's doing it, and I just want to see if I'll be a better person next year, after having done a year-end review of how I've lived my life this year.

As with all the years that came before it, 2008 was the best year of my life.

Why shouldn't it be? I mean, I've learnt more about myself, people, and, life in general - more than I ever did before - and I wasn't killed in the process! I'm living and breathing, and feel better about myself than I did the year before - which, like all the years before it, happened to have felt absolutely like the best year of my life!

I'm not being funny here. I couldn't have been more serious when I say that I always prefer the current to the past. Why anyone would prefer the past is simply beyond me. The past, to me, was a period when:

1) I most certainly was more ignorant (and I can most definitely understand that the same doesn't apply to someone who's stopped seeing, hearing, smelling, tasting, touching, or do any sort of sensing - well, yes, essentially, I'm refering to anyone that's NOT living, in the way that we've come to understand what living means);

2) The world was definitely more backward (Sea, don't ask me to elaborate on that, I'll knock your head);

3) ALL THE GOOD THINGS THAT CAME WITH IT ARE NOW GONE, FOREVER - I've experienced them much like the way I've enjoyed that piece of chocolate pistachio cake I had for desert tonight: it was scrumptious on my tongue, but once it's worked its way down my esophagous, the only place it's going to end up is my intestines...and the rest is just...well, I've had a sinful piece of rich, moist, nutty chocolate cake, which is probably going to add a fraction of a pound to my weight;

4) I was always uglier

Each year, I have 2 boxes that I would bring along to the following year:

A) People, Experiences and Lessons that I will remember or would want to remember for the rest of my life

B) AGENTS of life's lessons that don't matter

Contents in my box (A) for 2008

People

- Family;

- Friends I'm in contact with on both regular and occasional basis; all my old friends in Singapore, HK and Canada; all my ex colleagues, staff and superiors;

- Friends I've made via this space - all who have left comments here, and all those that I have been exchanging emails with

- Those who are reading this and who haven't at one point or another felt like slapping/sucker punching/kicking/killing me (please drop a note so I can put you in my box (A) for 2009!)

Experiences

- Trading, Trading, Trading!
-D, D, D!!

Lesson

- I'm NOT always right

Contents in my box (B)

-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

Ok, it's empty.

For an obvious reason: the contents don't matter.

In due time, they'll be forgotten anyway, and excreted from my system like desert I've had for dinner that's gone through the final phase of digestion...


And that pretty much sums up how I've been moving on to the next year every year, knowing for a fact that the new year ahead will be the best year of my life.

TF Trades 1/16

3 trades, and that's it for today. Very comfortable trades. Exactly like this day.

What happened that day and today was that I had gone in without scrutinizing all my charts hours before market open. For today, I took a look at the 4 timeframes (1, 5, 15, 60 minutes) half an hour before the ringing bell, and went in during the "forbidden" time zone: first half hour of the session.

On the previous day, I had gone in after quickly taking a look at the 5 and 1 min.

I was mildly detached on both days, and was doing a fair bit of self-talk, asking if I am making up patterns and scenarios and guessing where price is going instead of focusing on what price is doing right at this moment.

At least for now, I do better going in WITHOUT an opinion of the market. I am aware that my weakness is that once I have a view, nothing will make me change it. And that has often caused me to sit on a losing trade, or missed all the good trades coz price was not doing what I thought it should be doing.

Without an opinion, I depend totally on momentum and the current price actions.

Am too tired to go into details of my trades. Briefly, I went short on the first trade and was ready to hold it for a ride down when I noticed that a hammer seemed to be forming at support on 5min chart. Got out with a few ticks and reversed the trade. Scratched it breakeven when I didn't feel comfortable with the jerky movement. Went long again upon confirmation of hammer on 5 mins. Got out after price starts pulling back after going up for around 8 ticks without stopping.

Totally took the path of least resistance for the first time in many, many days. Again justifying my NOT having any view. Coz whenever I have one, it's AGAINST the path of least resistance. I'm a born rebel, and love trouble too much for my own good.

So, 3 trades: 2 winning, 1 breakeven.

I'm really tired.

Andrew, now I can sleep :-)

Profit: USD 125

Sick, In Every Possible Sense

I am taking a break from trading.

That is, if I can stay away from the market.

Had only 3 shuteyes lasting a total of 7 hours in the past 72 hours. Yes, I'm keeping track. That's my beauty sleep I'm losing!!! I most absolutely need to SLEEP!!!!

Am down with flu AGAIN - I suspect it's the air I'm breathing. Migraine won't stop attacking me, and I've been coughing and wheezing for weeks now (I DO have something I can blame for my terrible trading results... WOOHOO!).

I absolutely want to have at least 4 hours of sleep a day. And I absolutely want to be able to wear my bikinis at home again without feeling like I'm going to freeze to death.

But I like my new husky voice.... And I'm going to lose it once I lose the sore throat...

I will absolutely treat myself to sinful helpings of triple chocolate cookies, cakes and ice-cream if I can stay away from my workstation today.

We'll see....

"IF"

Found this on A Canadian On Wall Street's blog, and love it:

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you
But make allowance for their doubting too,
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream — and not make dreams your master,
If you can think — and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ‘em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it all on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: “Hold on!”

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings — nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much,
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And — which is more — you’ll be a Man, my son!

Re: GS Options, A Whited Sepulcher, And Adios to 2008

DeTrader,

Thanks for your comment from moments ago. I am not going to publish it.

It isn't about pain, so you haven't done anything you need to apologize for.

I wish you success in your endeavors - both blogging and trading.

WT*!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

DeTrader's Questions

DeTrader asked in the comment section these 2 questions:

1) Would you kindly tell how to setup your chart with TICK below it.
2) Why do you hate scalping options?

To answer your 2nd question first, DeTrader : the reason I hate GS options (To use the word "HATE" on all other options is a tad strong; I hate GS, and GS ONLY) is a really personal one (besides having lost money trading it...I mean, I've lost more on the emini futures...but there's really another reason - which is the KEY reason, and a rather illogical one...), and I don't know enough about options to say that it's necessarily bad for scalping, so I'm going to keep the answer to myself for now :-)

Re your question 1): D was the one who wrote the script and I simply had it imported to TOS. What you can do, DeTrader, is to go to "Studies" on TOS, click on "New Study", and then simply paste the script below (in blue) in the space provided for scripts. Then give it a name, and you'll find the study where you see it on my chart :-)

Here's the script:

declare lower;

plot TICK = close("$TICK");

plot SMA = Average(close("$TICK"), 10);

plot ZeroLine = 0;
plot Pos500Line = 500;
plot Pos350Line = 350;
plot Pos150Line = 150;
plot Neg500Line = -500;
plot Neg350Line = -350;
plot Neg150Line = -150;


TICK.SetDefaultColor(Color.YELLOW);
# TICK.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.POINTS);

SMA.SetDefaultColor(Color.BLACK);
SMA.SetLineWeight(3);

ZeroLine.SetDefaultColor(Color.GRAY);
ZeroLine.SetLineWeight(3);


Pos500Line.SetDefaultColor(Color.RED);
Pos500Line.SetLineWeight(2);
Pos500Line.SetStyle(Curve.LONG_DASH);

Pos350Line.SetDefaultColor(Color.RED);
Pos350Line.SetLineWeight(2);
Pos350Line.SetStyle(Curve.SHORT_DASH);

Pos150Line.SetDefaultColor(Color.RED);
Pos150Line.SetLineWeight(2);

Neg500Line.SetDefaultColor(Color.BLUE);
Neg500Line.SetLineWeight(2);
Neg500Line.SetStyle(Curve.LONG_DASH);

Neg350Line.SetDefaultColor(Color.BLUE);
Neg350Line.SetLineWeight(2);
Neg350Line.SetStyle(Curve.SHORT_DASH);

Neg150Line.SetDefaultColor(Color.BLUE);
Neg150Line.SetLineWeight(2);

TF Trade 1/14

1 trade. Am calling it a day. I need sleep. Had only 3 hours of sleep in 48 hours. I don't want to start making stupid mistakes again (ya, like the one I made yesterday....).

Was pleasantly surprised to see the market behaving like it used to (ie. before end of 2008) when I returned home from a class reunion. Missed the opening bell, and hadn't the time to prepare for the market at all today. Thought I was going to have to give this session a miss.

TF continued trading down for an hour or so after market open. As usual, I didn't chase, and was looking to BUY. I had so many misses with picking bottom that I'm starting to recognize all the traps. It's not enough to see a higher low and higher peak. I need a strong bullish pattern to get in. And I definitely consider a busted bearish setup a very strong indication that the only way the market is going is UP.

It's not very common for me to get into a trade with a normal heartbeat. Today's a rare occurrence. I knew where exactly I was going to get out. In fact, my entry and exit reason is a common one - that everyone's eyeing on that resistance to be broken, where price is very often seen rushing towards, only to plunge back down when it gets smacked down by sellers who have already positioned themselves there to take out the weak bulls. Didn't happen today, but I'm not going to change my rule. For now, I just want to take profit when there's profit to be taken. Letting profit run is not a practical approach for me right now. Not when the market's so fickle about where it wants to go on intraday basis.

Today's report card:

Profit: USD 95

TF Trades 1/13 & Someone That Caught My Heart

Not going into the details of my trades. Am mentally drained.

A very close family friend called 2 hours before market open. She had lost a fortune in the stock market (so much for buy-and-hold approach!!!) , and had recently taken a loan to buy back the stocks. The stocks continued to drop, and it is time for the money to be repaid. And it has to be tonight. When she called, she had only 1 hour left to get the money.

I still don't have the facts, but I've known this lady since I was just a little girl, and she was more of a mother to me than my biological mother. I know she wouldn't have asked for help if it wasn't a life and death matter. I am not even sure that she was the one who needed the money. It's so NOT her. D commented that people do change. And I haven't really seen her since I returned home a decade ago. And of course when I was away the decade before, I wasn't in contact with her too. That makes up 20 years of us not having really interacted.

I told D that people don't change. Besides, when I was 12, I told her that when she grew old, I would look after her. She was unattached then, and had no desire to be attached. She spent most of her free time with me and my siblings. She was the only person my Dad trusted to take me out. For years, she was my only human companion. The other companion I had was my dog.

So I rushed out to pass her the cash. Couldn't find the place at first and was delayed by stupid drivers all over town. It was just crazy. My thoughts were crazy. I was afraid that I would be too late and it would be another big regret in my life.

But I made it to her in time.

Rushed home in time for opening bell.

D turned in really late, and I asked if he had stayed up to keep me company. He said he did. Really warmed my heart. The company he works for is once again in the limelight, and again for a very very bad reason, and I really hated to have to give him additional troubles and worries.

My Trades

The first entry was the most stupid mistake a trader could ever make. I messed up on Booktrader. Since it wasn't a trade that was entered as planned, I had no strategy for exit.

I sat on it until I could see that I would be taking on too much risk if I didn't get out with a small loss - 1.6 points.

Recovered 1.7 points in 2 subsequent trades.

Paid my broker for the 3 trades, and end up with a net loss of USD 4.

Even the losses are no longer spectacular.

Today's report card:

Net Loss: USD 4

An Illuminating Note from The Lonely Trader

Received an email from The Lonely Trader on my posting Dilemma, and am truly grateful for the insights he's offered. His questions are tough - typical of TLT LOL! My brain muscles are due for some serious workouts anyway....

I can't think of a better place to keep this treasure other than in my personal journal :

Jules, this doesn't seem like a dilemma at all. I don’t think this is a problem of the "commit murder or matrimony" variety. You've been at this for how long, now?...

Were you ever in a tactical situation where you were afraid, but you went ahead with the assignment anyway? And you performed well enough despite those feelings of uncertainty and doubt. You made decisions based on training and practice, right? Sometimes the decisions were sequential and based on conditional situations, and sometimes they were of a higher functional order. But they were part of a cohesive structure. You didn’t understand the nuances until you had enough time to work through them in different contexts. Then as you began to master the nuances, you gained insight into the contexts, and the higher functional analysis became second nature to you…although not every decision was the right one, most were functionally adequate.

In my own experience with this process, the intensity of feelings subsided but the feelings themselves -- uncertainty, doubt, and maybe a little fear -- never disappeared entirely. The more I practice, the easier it is to cope with emotions when making decisions required by the plan and the context.

Can you state clearly what the premises are in the plan and are they valid from an empirical standpoint? And have you defined what the criteria are for determining whether the plan has failed? And have you broken down your plan into component skills that you can practice and evaluate?

Perhaps these bits might help with the feelings of doubt. Perhaps not. In any case, they will help you decide what to *do* as you roll through your trading process, which is really all that matters, right?

Or maybe I'm missing something...?

But I’m not a trading coach, nor am I a professional trader. So there it is.

Cheers

Indicators: NYSE TICK + Keltner Channel

The following describes how I would personally use the NYSE TICK and the Keltner Channel as indicators when I'm daytrading the TF FOR NOW.
_________________________________________________________________

On a generally BULLISH day

Signal: BUY

(When Tick is turning up from 0 or +150)

Conditions:

A) At Price Top

1) When all candles of the previous peak have moved back into the KC from outside the upper channel, and prices are confined within the lower channel, AND

2) When Tick's previous peak was above +500, then it came down to +150, and is now turning back up

B) At Price Bottom

1)When ALL candles of the valley have moved back into the KC from outside the lower channel, AND

2) When Tick's previous valley was below 0, and has turned up, and has now reached +150

(When Tick is turning up from +350)

Conditions:

1) When candles are seen bouncing off the KC centreline, or upper band of the the KC - after an impulse move up where prices had moved out of upper channel of KC, AND

2) When tick's previous peak was at +500 or above, came back down to +350, and turning back up towards +500 again

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Signal: Sell

(When Tick is turning down after having gone beyond +500)

Conditions:

1) When All the candles of the previous peaks are confined within the KC channel, and prices have been bouncing back and forth from KC ceiling to its centreline, AND

2) When Tick has gone above +500, then came back down to +350 - once price closed below KC centreline, and if it happens to be the breakout point of a trendline, that's a signal to SELL

_______________________________________________________________

On a generally BEARISH day

Signal: SELL

(When Tick is turning down at + 150)

Conditions:

1) When candles have gone back into the KC after having moved out of its upper channel, and when all the candles of the current peak are completely contained within the channel, AND

2) When Tick's previous peak was at +150, then it moved down, and then turned back up to +150, and is now turning back down

(When Tick is turning down at - 150)

Conditions:

1) When candles are bouncing between floor of KC and its centreline, and no bullish candles close above the centreline, AND

2) When Tick's previous peak was at -150, then it went down to -350, and then turned back up to -150

(NOTE: Do NOT sell after tick dropped beyond -350 and turned back from its valley - that's an oversold situation and the likelihood is that price will reverse from there)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Signal: BUY

(When Tick is turning up at -350 or -500)

Conditions:

A)
1) When candles are seen bouncing off the floor of the KC channel and the MA (KC centreline), and when candles land again on the floor of the channel, AND

2) When Tick's previous peak was at 0 or -150, then it came all the way down to hit -350 or -500, and is now turning back up

B)
1) When candles are seen moving from the upper KC all the way down to the floor of the KC (NOTE: Candles must NEVER have gone out of the lower channel of the KC - that is an indication of a continuation of a downtrend), AND

2) When Tick's previous peaks are either in the positive region (0 to +150), or hovering between 0 and -150, from where it went down to -350 or -500, and is now turning back up

TF Trades 1/12

2 Entries on TF 1min

Profit: USD 40

It's another small profit day, but I'm happy. For the first time in weeks, I didn't lose money on a Monday.

Market today's not exactly conducive for trading. Range was tight and this was obvious right after the first leg from 930 to 10am was formed. After that, market simply appeared undecided, and understandably so given that everyone's probably waiting for Alcoa's earnings release at the end of the day. Being the first among the industry to release its quarterly earnings, Alcoa's result is going to set the tone for the broader market in the days and possibly weeks to come.

Looking at the 2 trades that I've made, I realize the wisdom of being consistent in my exit decisions. In retrospect, I would have made a point more had I held on to the first trade despite the lack of momentum in the direction of my trade. But had I done the same (ie. holding on) for the 2nd trade, it would have severely affected my morale coz TF had gone against my trade a fair bit. In my default (undisciplined) mode, I would have ended up in the red for today. By sticking to my exit rule, I have instead made a tiny profit.

Daily Performance Scorecard

Dilemma!

I'm definitely going through something that's feeling a tad like "buyer's regret". I'm regretting buying into the idea that I can actually follow any rules!

So now that I've set myself up to think like a disciplined trader, I haven't the slightest inkling how I'm going to go about pushing the buttons! Was watching some forex charts the whole day, and noticed that I couldn't trade at all once I put on the "disciplined trader" hat!

That got me thinking about how I made money consistently in the months preceding Dec 08. I noticed that although I did go into the market with a general plan, I hadn't a plan for individual trades. And for the most part of those months, trading was STRESSFUL. Then came Dec when I decided that I wanted to go for stress-LESS trading, and that was when things started getting messy. I started looking for confirmation (while previously I traded on the assumption that a pattern was going to develop) of patterns, and had become less willing to sit on a losing trade even though the pattern I went in on was not busted yet.

I'm really starting to believe that trading profit is very hard earned money! Granted that trading is definitely not a laborious activity, it is by no means an easy job! Once I want my life to get a little cushier, I get punished!!

I'm caught in a very difficult situation now. I've not even really begun to follow my new trading plan, and I'm already doubting that it'll work for me.

Will see how it goes today.

Trading The Emini Russell 2000 (Part 2) - Correction, & About "Monitoring of Daily Performance"

Below shows the correct chart for my previous post (shows the trades I would have made had I stuck to my plan about entering on grade A patterns and setups that give me maximum edge).

I have also added a few more - ok, many more - paragraphs to the section "monitoring of daily performance" on that posting.

On second thought, I'm just going to transfer those ramblings to this post. So, here goes:

Monitoring of Daily Performance

I've always been the kind of person that hates to keep scores. I like details only when I'm looking for clues and finding answers to questions. I hate details linked to post-events. I'm a lousy book-keeper (little wonder that D's the one managing our finances and diligently keeping track of daily expenses and monthly and yearly budget...so it's baffled me for a long time why I was tasked to look after the department's budget for over 2 years when I was at my previous job)

But, after series of losing days (something I'm definitely not accustomed to), I'm adamant about doing just about anything to get back on the right track. As I've said many times before, I don't like to lose. That's a gross understatement of course. I am fully aware that the only certainty in the market is that it will open and close. I am also fully prepared for a seemingly perfect trade to turn bad due to factors that are beyond my control - which makes cutting loss as soon as the trade is no longer going as I've planned so critical. But I utterly hate multiple losing days. It tells me that something's very wrong with my psychology, or the market. But I can't do anything about the market, even if it's to be blamed. But I can do something about myself.

My best month has been the one where I traded more contracts than I should. For someone who started out with merely 28k, and who's never traded the futures market, that was more than rash. At that point, it didn't occur to me that it was an atrocious thing to do, coz I had been trading 10 GS options contracts and was used to the big swings. What's worth mentioning again here is that I was very good at running back then, and the market was not as uncertain and haphazard as today, so I managed to escape a blowup.

On the months that follow, my monthly average profit was around 2 to 3 k. Not impressive for a full-time trader. I couldn't get any better, coz my daily gains have been pretty consistent - they were capped at 1 to 2 points, sometimes 3 (which was enough to make trading 5 contracts very lucrative though). Because I scalped, I was paying a lot to my broker, and on days that I started out losing, I have to make many more trades to make up my loses, and in the process, paying more towards commission. It's like you take a loan from a loan shark, and each time you pay him back, you're just paying interest.

I'm done getting in and out of the market like a maniac. Unless the day is perfect for discarding charts for the tape, I am going to be disciplined about only entering on the setups that give me the best edge.

As I've mentioned before, I have never entered and exited (especially the exit!) a trade based on any systems or after having walked through a checklist to qualify that trade. What I did, on the days that I was more "disciplined", was to wait for my favorite setups, then get in at "market" (very stupid thing to do) when I see that price is going to break, and I get out usually before the completion of a single 5 min candle. On the days that I get a 4 to 5 point gain, I had simply gone to bed after putting on the trade. Which actually didn't happen more than 3 times, I think. And those were the days I had to be dragged away from my computer. Sometimes, D will just turn it off and literally force me to go to bed, after making sure that I've put in my stop loss and profit target of course.

Since Dec 08, I have gotten so lost that I started to wonder if I actually knew how to trade properly. What I know for a fact is that I don't have a penchant for gambling. If that's the case, I must be working towards something. And I can't know what it is if I don't document my thoughts that lead to the specific decisions I made for each of my entries and exits. What patterns have been giving me windfalls, and what are the ones that have been screwing me. What behaviorial and thinking patterns have been guiding my losing and winning days - if I make it a point to keep tabs, I could find out things about ME that I didn't know before. If I continue to be blind to who I am, I'm going to continue to let the part of me that sabotages my trading continue to sabotage my trading.

So, I'm keeping scores. I've developed a very primitive scorecard to get things started. Overtime, and with more data generated from trading, I will refine it to capture even more data.

It's time that I find out what is it about me that's hampering my progress in trading. I don't care what the market does - if it sucks, and I choose to trade, then I suck even more than the market.

The template for my scorecard can be found in the post from where the above paras were hijacked.