Natural Gas Trades 12/29 (Tues) & Austin P

PnL for 12/28 & 12/29

NG 2min

Both short entries.

Still really clumsy on execution (actually, always the entry). And a little generous on initial stops. Guess they go hand in hand. I can be less generous when I'm more precise. Not exactly great money management in the long run, but am working on improving execution.

2nd attempt after the first was stopped out was a little easier as far as setting stop is concerned. It was a USD 160 stop (less than half of what I set for the first trade). And I was able to move it to + USD100, then + USD 150 just prior to that plunge that hit my target.

It was a real struggle to see 300 disappear right before my eyes TWICE though.

Had I been trading like before, I would have taken the 300, and call it a breakeven day, effectively letting the vicious cycle continue forever.

I decided that since I had the conviction to get in again, I'm holding to target.

Besides, I wasn't going to be taking a loss if I get stopped out at the new stop.

Best case scenario: I get my net USD 400 profit; worst case scenario: -USD 200. I can live with the latter.

Was listening to Austin's videos the whole day, and totally tickled by him, even when I was in trade. A really, really lovely guy. Unorthodox, but definitely VERY wise. He most definitely was the reason that I stuck with what was a reasonable bet. Something about the voice I guess.

Poetic Energy Analyst

Cute Phil Flynn wrote this on FuturesMag:

T’was the last Energy Report before Christmas, while all through the pits
the oil had rallied before taking a hit.

The traders put on their positions with care,
yet a stronger dollar and stock-market gave the buyers a scare.

In the upcoming year the buyers will start fearing the FED,
while visions of rate increases will dance in their heads.
And with Obama as Chief, and trade that will be capped,
demand growth for oil might be in for a long winter’s nap.

Still Nigeria and Iran are starting to make a big clatter,
yet with a glut of oil and spare capacity it does not seem to matter.
Any production void will be filled in flash,
as oil producers are real hungry for cash.

You see OPECS production continues to grow. Even as Demand for oil is relatively slow.

When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
the cartel thinks theses high prices can stay high next year...

But the little old cartel might be missing the trick,
if production exceeds demand growth oil could fall like a brick, as the dollar raises oil prices will quickly be tamed.

As the cartel will be cheating and I will call them by name! Now Iran! Now Iraq! Now Kuwait and Algeria, on Venezuela, on UAE, on Qatar and Nigeria. Libya and Ecuador have their backs to a wall, and Saudi and Angola may cheat for them all.

As the year ends the stock market continues to fly,
because when the Fed met with an obstacle, new rules did apply.
So up to the house-top the money supply grew,
with the sleigh full of dollars, and low interest rates too.

When rates will rise Fed is aloof.

But if inflation pressures rise stimulus could be gone in a poof.
The biggest threat to oil as things start turning around,
is that the battered US dollar may start to rebound.

Our soldiers are fighting in lands far away, and we should remember to pray for them each passing day.

It is for freedom that they are putting up this incredible fight

So to them and all of you Merry Christmas and good Night!

Trades (Live) & Merry Xmas

Entire week's trading in 2 days.

The rest of the time I sim traded, practising scaling in.

I'm not sure if this is the format I'll be using to blog about my results going forward.

I'm not showing charts and details of each trade for now until I can find a way to explain my trades without letting my explanation affect the way I trade the next day.

I keep a daily trading log and another journal for observation of how each of the instruments I trade behaves on a daily, weekly and monthly basis. So this blog is really just to document my results and my trading journey. It is of course also really my personal diary. I keep no private diaries coz I'm not big on writing to myself.

But I like to write. So, I'll just keep writing as and when I feel like it.

Oil & Beans

The potential of ZS and CL.

Corn's a little slow, so is yen (and 6E and 6B) after US market opened.

All shorts.

I'm following a specific schedule in terms of the instruments I trade. I trade on days with events & data releases, and I trade divergences & spreads. Without any of these, I don't trade. I've wasted enough resources trading uneventful days and on days that no one's puking.

ok, I really just wanted to show that TF sucks. But that's what TF does at this time of the year.

I'm going live on ZS on 26 Dec. Will be trading on both AT and IB.

This is my last trading post for 2009. As mentioned, I will post live trading results in Feb.

I'm not going to wish anyone a Merry Christmas, coz, personally, I don't like Christmas. I dislike Chinese New year even more though.

I just hate holidays.

Update on AUD/USD Long - still holding. I'm prepared for USD to keep going up til March, maybe even to May. I just bought really expensive USD to top up my Infinity Futures account, so I'm really not loving USD. To make things worse, I bought EUR as well. I think I might just have to keep shorting 6E til March...I'm holding both AUD and EUR. They are not leveraged so unless both goes to zero, my account is safe. I won't be able to trade FX in the meantime though.

Soybean (SIM) Trade 12/17 (Thurs)

ZS 2min

Solfest, no wonder you trade oil and beans.

Soybean Trades

The ZS (Soybean) is a very nice instrument to trade. I've sim traded it for a while (as I did with CL before trading live), paying close attention to its movement compared with CL. Still watching and learning.

IB's Booktrader showing my ZS sim trade (Highlighted in blue is the HOD and that's my targeted exit for an opened position. 1 tick or 0.0025 cent = USD 12.50):

Chart below shows my 2 ZS entries. With the first, I haven't done anything too different except that I held it overnight (I really doubt that I'll do the same for live trades. As a matter of fact, I don't think I will ever hold a futures trade overnight. I won't be able to sleep. That's the difference between sim and real money trading.). Just prior to the start of the trading session yesterday, I was already in the 300 - 400 profit zone. Holding contract to target added another 700. Nice daily range.

ZS 200-Tick

Not trading live at all for the rest of Dec. Will take the time to study grains and energy futures, possibly gold too.

Update
2nd ZS trade closed:

Ok, Fine, It's Christmas

For those who are interested: I found this market report on energy futures on CFTC (I like to know everything).

Here's a monthly report on all commodity futures. Again, for those who like to complicate their life.

I am officially VERY sick of the market (nothing to do with the market, it's just me and my eyes). So I'm going to take the rest of the month off to study my oil, soybean, wheat, corn, 6B, 6J, 6E and TF charts.

About my comment section (I know, I know, I'm a broken record) - I am the only one that can comment on my post (if I wish to, that is, but I don't know why I would want to do that YET), so please do not think/feel that you have been excluded from my circle. I love all that I regard as friends. If only I have the time to write to each and every one of you...