Friday, October 9, 2009

TF Trades 10/9 (Fri) - OK Day Crappy Trades

It's one of those classic rotten days.

I stayed in bed almost the entire day. Terrible migraine. And Alberto wouldn't let me sleep (he does that whenever I'm sick....amazing little thing).

Was up at 5 - 6 pm local time (5-6 am N.Y. time). Watched the 6E and 6J. 6E showed a decent setup but something happened and I didn't manage to trade.

Switched to watch the TF chart after US session started, and traded some crap moves.

Checked out the grains charts and saw nothing that I wanted to trade.

Strangely though, I wasn't too bothered/frustrated/mad.

Maybe coz D was working from home today, and I got lots of hugs and kisses (even when he was on calls).

I definitely should fall sick more often.

And I have J (the trader who makes his own blackberry syrup to go with his favorite vanilla ICE CREAM) to chat with. J keeps me cheery. J says that the world revolves around his country and his people - which is why they're called the "US". He's hilarious.

Not a rotten day after all.

Total: USD 60

Grain Futures

Soybeans and Wheat. Very pure (ie. clean, directional, non-ES like) price movements. USD 287.50 (SIM) in less than 30 mins. And it was lunch time. Tempting.

UF, don't you already know by now? I LOVE CANADA. I might just move there for wheat, oil, bean, HUGH DILLON, and of course, SOLFEST!!! LOL!

Beautiful Grains




Anything that moves gets my attention....

Not my money yet though.

Thursday, October 8, 2009

6E & TF Trades 10/8 (Thurs)

Nothing much happened today as far as trading's concerned.

I traded in a 2-point chop zone for hours and decided to call it a day after my 8th trade and before my PnL got ugly (9 ticks in the red then). Then just when I was having dinner, 6E MOVED. 8:30 news.

6E 10min
I was not happy, and decided I want my money back. Switched to a tick chart and faded that move. Got my 9 ticks back.
6E 200-tick

I didn't even bother with 1-min chart for TF. Used a tick chart instead and took a scalp. Entered at market. Not the perfect way to enter, but stop entry is just as bad. Took my 5 ticks. Now I'm happy. That's more than enough to pay Anthony. Ha ha.

TF 233-tick

The other time-frames I was watching along with 233-tick:

TF 10 & 3min


Total: USD 50

Today's a bad day to trade. It's not the market. There are just too many distractions. Not even going to talk about my chronic migraine.

A very good friend of mine from Hong Kong (I met him in Canada. I was 16 and he was 21. I used to climb up his 2nd story apartment and enter through his WINDOW - never used the lift, regardless of season. I nearly killed him on one occasion when I drove off before he got into HIS car. He was the one who taught me to play mahjong and speak proper Cantonese, and kept me company when I was pregnant - NO, NOT his child - and strandled at home - it was winter in Edmonton) is finally getting married! He called and asked if I would attend his wedding in late Nov.

Nov's autumn in Hong Kong. Of course I'm going!

So, I'm officially taking a real break next month.

Coincidentally, my neighbour's holding his wedding ceremony too, and asked if he could engage my cleaning lady for a day. Then we began chatting about other things. He noticed I sleep late. I told him I sleep early - usually at 3 to 4 am, after I finish work. He had question marks all over his face. I said I trade the US market. He looked relieved.

WHAT WAS HE THINKING???

Anyway, that was a long interruption. And I just couldn't trade anymore. Yes, I'm still having my migraine. And just terribly relieved that my aunt actually remembered my Tylenol! I had my last pill in the bottle and was really distraught. And she called to tell me she's back from Vegas and flying out again tomorrow but she's left the pills at home with her housekeepers. I'M HAPPY!!!!

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

6E & TF Trades 10/7 (Wed)

6E 10min

TF 1min

Total: USD 212.50

3 Trades: Long 6E, Short TF, Long TF

I'm too tired to write. Woke up early this morning - too early, but I had no choice coz 6E charts were haunting me in my dreams!

Continued to study more charts (and hoping they'll stop visiting me in my sleep) and read more e-books and then 8 hours later, I began watching 6E. Stayed with it from 3am EDT all the way to 9:30am EDT when I switched over to TF.

I don't know how many hours I've been looking at my screen but my eyes are telling me to stop.

So I'm just going to spend the rest of the night listening to D boss everyone around on his 4-hour conference call (which really feels like nothing now after his 40-hour marathon call just 5 days ago on Sat & Sun - I'm not kidding, D had to charge his phone twice, and after he was finally done, he had wanted to clean the air-con unit. I gently told him he's hyper and out of his mind and suggested a massage session from me instead. D's crazy. Really crazy).

Where's The Elegance? Where's The Grace?

There's not a single day that I can read yahoo news in peace. This saga keeps getting my attention (I'm human!):

(Note our dethroned Ms Singapore's post-graduation plan. ENJOY LIFE FOR 2 YEARS, then be a shining star. We must have run out of DECENT WOMEN WITH NORMAL IQ to represent our country)

Miss Singapore-World first runner-up says 'no' to finals
By Teo Xuanwei, TODAY | Posted: 06 October 2009 0704 hrs




Miss Claire Lee, 23, first runner-up of Miss Singapore World 2009, will only take part if ERM sues her.




SINGAPORE: She may be the prime candidate to replace dethroned beauty queen Ris Low, but unless she is threatened with a lawsuit by the contest organisers, Ms Claire Lee, the first runner-up in this year's beleaguered Miss Singapore-World contest, will not represent Singapore at the Miss World finals.

This, after the pageant-pals-turned-foes had a public spat over how the media had sniffed out 19-year-old Miss Low's conviction for credit card fraud in May this year.

The latter had claimed that Ms Lee, 23, had told on her, and had faked a back injury to "save face" in case she was not selected as the replacement.

Choking back sobs as she revealed her decision to MediaCorp over the phone yesterday, Ms Lee said: "I'm being accused of things I didn't do. People now think I did it to take the title, but that's not true ... I don't want to be involved anymore."

Asked about her contractual obligations, Ms Lee said: "I don't intend to represent Singapore unless ERM threatens to sue me."

The Nanyang Technological University aerospace engineering graduate said she has not informed pageant organisers ERM World Marketing about her decision.

When contacted yesterday, ERM events director Tracy Lee declined to comment on the status of the selection for Ms Low's replacement or on Ms Lee's decision, and only said that an announcement would be made when the company is "ready".

ERM had earlier said in a press statement that it will hold interviews to determine the new representative - although other pageant organisers say it is industry practice for the first runner-up to assume the title in an event where the winner is unable to represent the country.

MediaCorp understands the finalist has to leave Nov 15 for the finals in South Africa.

With the pageant's top two out of the running, whether Singapore will have a representative this year is anybody's guess given that one month may be too short a period for a contestant to prepare adequately.

As for second runner-up, Ms Pilar Arlando, 19, she did not respond to phone calls yesterday, while the other two women in the Top Five, Ms Sonia Sawlani, 23, and Ms Oxy Ong, 20, confirmed they have not been called up for interviews yet.

When told of Ms Lee's pulling out yesterday, her erstwhile friend Ms Low said: "I don't care and I have nothing to say."

"I'll be graduating in January, then I'll take some time to enjoy life ... Two years later, hopefully Singapore will forget all this and I can step on the stage again. I like to be a shining star, the centre of attraction."

6E & TF Trades 10/6 (Tues)

6E 10min
TF 1min

D couldn't understand why I wouldn't take my 1.6 point profit on my first 6E trade (which got stopped out eventually). After all, my risk was just 8 ticks. I said I was aiming for 4759 (purple lines were drawn before europe session opened). I know, that's really stretching it given my stop loss. Anyway, 6E got there, 6 hours later.

That's about the only thing worth mentioning today.

Oh, I kind of dozed off watching 6E's 10 min chart. Actually, I zoned out for a good 30 min. Am sure it will get better...

D fixed my snipping tool (realized it didn't work this morning when I wanted to do my captures for yesterday's trades, and D my IT guru was at work.) But right after he went in for his shower, it failed on me again. So no capture of the fib ext 132.8 target at 4742 that I was supposed to have gotten out at (which I didn't of course, coz I was aiming for a prior support at 4759).

Snipping tool fixed, here's the chart:



Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Jules Is A Mule (Part 2?)

Oct 5, Monday

I sat and watch the 6E trade within a 2-point range from 3am - 8am EDT. Didn't get an entry.

Switched to TF at 9:40am EDT, and sat and watch it print 5-points up in 5 minutes. Something told me that it wasn't the typical trending day where price hardly retraces 30% before resuming its way up/down. I kept chasing price up nonetheless. Got used to buying high I guess. Anyway, I was right for a while in the beginning, and very wrong after that.

For the life of me, I couldn't understand at first why a day without news (except for that one miserable release at 10am EDT) could get so erratic. Then I realized that a day without news means no edge for the big guys who like to fade crowd sentiments these days, and without them taking the lead, price's just all over the place. To put it simply, don't expect a chart to be normal when the day's not normal (after almost 2 news-packed weeks with different gods talking almost everyday, a quiet day is definitely ABNORMAL).

Took a look at 6E this morning (9pm EDT), and saw that had I waited til 11:30am EDT yesterday, I would have gotten the entry I was waiting for (a fake breakout on the downside, strong reversal up, finishing high at Fib Ext 161.8). Plenty of news from Europe's side yesterday from 4am EDT on, and the 6E chart was anything but erratic. But I had to trade the TF instead and give away 3.9 points.

Am extremely out of sync with market rhythm and spending every minute of my waking hours and using every ounce of whatever remaining energy I have looking for ways to get back in sync.

Don't tell me to step away, take a break, or read Dr Brett.

I'm moving heaven and earth, breaking my neck, and reading Secrets of Professional Turf Betting.

I am aware that I'll probably not stop losing money, and am totally prepared for a losing streak.

Doesn't mean that I'm going to let that happen.

But it's really not up to me, is it?

I'm not going to stop this time coz breaks are simply not constructive.

Really, how does one learn by staying out?

@ LORD TEDDERS (YOU'RE ALIVE!!!), TST, Scalpwiz, Albert C and UF:

Thanks for the notes you dropped. I've run out of things to say in response. Or maybe it's just coz that it's starting to dawn on me that as far as trading is concerned, there's really not that much to talk about. It's all in the "doing". And we can be doing all the wrong things at one point or another and it's so tiring and meaningless to justify each "wrong" move we make. I'm probably going to be doing a thousand things wrong , a thousand times each - and I'm probably going to be jumping from 1 min to 1 hour timeframe within the same day - imagine the explanation I have to do...Just thinking about it makes me feel like I want to puke.

That said, I'm going to continue recording everything that I do. What I won't do is EXPLAIN & JUSTIFY. I'm NOT going to turn comments off. If anyone tells me I'm a moron (why can't I get that out of my mind???), I'm ready with a standard boring "you're an ass-hole" response.

@Sean:


I'm not using TOS. D is the one using it. I use Sierra charts and trade on AT platform. If you're looking for good rates and superb service, send an email to Anthony (Infinity Futures) .
His email address: a.giacomin@infinityfutures.com

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Stops

During the period that I stopped posting, I had made a number of trades that had wiped out all that I've made since Aug 1st.

My losing trades were entered based on more or less the same premises as those of the profitable trades that I had made in the first 2 weeks of Aug. The only thing that I had done differently was the way I managed my trades. I had cut my losses early and let my profits run, which wasn't exactly ideal in what was primarily a choppy/ranging market. I had also taken more trades per day - but had I not done that, I wouldn't have found out about my limitation.

What I learned about me after that exercise was that I am not as good as I thought I was. That short winning streak was not sustainable simply because I am not yet a proficient trader. Many of my winnings from the past were a result of my having sat on substantial paper loss. Because I was rewarded for not cutting my losses, I was hardly motivated to do a proper assessment of my trades. I was aware of this the whole time of course, which was the reason why I simply couldn't feel good about my results.

It was when I was doing what was right for me that I started to accumulate losses. It was when I went on a trading spree that I learned that I can only enter a specific number of trades a day beyond which I start having difficulty managing my emotions.

So my MO for winning has always been to stay convicted to my view of where price is going. On most days, it works beautifully. But it was extremely stressful trading, and on the days that I was wrong, I would take a loss that would affect me for days and weeks.

I personally do not believe that trading is easy. But it shouldn't have to feel like I'm walking on thin ice everytime I put on a trade. The discomfort of trading starts the moment you execute a trade, simply coz there's a likelihood you'll lose money on that trade. This type of discomfort is not the same as the mental strain that's caused by an unplanned event (trade going awry and you don't have an idea how far price is going to move against you, coz you have been profit-focused and have not prepared adequately for contingencies). The latter should happen as infrequently as you can help it.

I am now starting to use hard stops. It is not to eliminate discomfort. As a matter of fact, stop-losses make me feel so uncomfortable I'm now reluctant to trade. But I know for a fact that I need the protection of a stop-loss while I'm still learning the ropes. Stop losses are there to make the lessons I can't avoid less expensive. More importantly, losing trades make me review them over and over to find out what I have overlooked before I execute them.

Since my trades are based on very precise setups and signals, a stop-loss is necessary to get me out of a trade that's no longer valid as soon as it's invalidated. If I keep getting stopped out, it simply means that more work is needed to improve my reading of the market. If skill has nothing to do with my being stopped out, and it's the market that's doing something I've never seen before or have had very little experience with, then being stopped out would give me a chance to pause to do an objective assessment, which is something that's difficult to do when I'm still in trade.

There are many conventional wisdoms about trading that I dismiss as pure lies and myths, and there are just as many unorthodox concepts and philosophies on trading that I turn a deaf ear to (Just coz something is unorthodox doesn't give it more credit).

I have always stuck with whatever makes sense to me.

At this stage, tight hard stops make perfect sense to me.

Starting over.

Friday, October 2, 2009

TF Trades 10/2 (Fri) - Spooked

TF 1 Min
Red arrow: Loser
Black arrow: Winner

Total: USD 100

It's NFP day, yes.

It's Friday, yes.

My Sim trading platform has not been doing what I wanted it to do for the past few days, yes.

But I'm not in a position to be picky (though with data feed, Anthony did imply that I can - well, he said if there's discrepancy between chart and DOM, it's not acceptable. Sweet Anthony).

I can't wait for the perfect day and perfect feeds to start working again.

And I can't stand it that D went in right after NFP report and got out with a profit!

So, I went live, and to celebrate my first day back at work, I gave away 1 point to the market.

I curled up like a ball in my chair after that, helpless and demoralized. I haven't even the chance to blink my eye before my trade was stopped out. I thought about all those times that I was trading crazier instruments like the 6E and 6J with either a wide or no stop and was almost too relaxed for my own good - those were the days....

Almost in the same instant, I blamed my stop. I was about to widen it to 7 points, when the better part of me told me to CUT IT OUT.

Then I saw a setup. But I had no entry. Great.

Then I saw my entry, but I hesitated.

Then for some strange reason (highly likely Solfest's prophesy about my having 13 kids and being stuck in the kitchen!), I uncurled myself, reached out for my mouse and hit "buy".

Enough is enough. I can't keep chickening out coz of a stupid stop.

I got my 1 point. My heart was racing so fast I felt like I was going to pass out. Yes, I've had that before, but that was a year ago!

Saw my 2nd entry, went in and came out with another point.

By then, my mild headache had become a full blown migraine.

D had no idea the ordeal I went through until he came over and placed his ear on my chest.

He was shocked that my heart could actually beat so fast.

He dragged me out for a smoke, and I missed my 4th signal coz of that (all signals highlighted in white on chart above). But I figured out I should stop before I get a seizure or something.

I'm sure I'm under some kind of curse. J told me about this friend of his whose house is supposedly under an Indian curse. I think I'm under a Chinese curse. In Singapore, they have a term for it: "Kiasu". A direct translation would be "fear of losing", or "scared to death of losing", etc.

Good news is, my platform works perfect today! In fact, it's now faster than my charts. LOL!!

I'm sure Anthony did something. The last time I couldn't access TransAct for 12 hours, I wrote him and by the time he got to the office, I was able to log in immediately. I had thought that maybe I was cursed and D was blessed (coz D got home, logged on, and was in!), until I found out from Anthony that he had made some calls (to TransAct and had them re-sync my account!).

Anthony, again, WHAT WOULD I DO WITHOUT YOU? :-)

I'm going to be using the weekend to think about what the hell is wrong with me. And definitely staying away from anything that causes my heart to palpitate (that means no staring at Hugh Dillon's pictures!!!)

Here's D's chart (the one he hasn't changed since AGES ago - I have dropped TRIX a few times and he still has it!) and his result:

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Data Feed Issue

Not posting my trades today. Was testing my platform and did 99 round turns in under an hour. Had they been real trades, Anthony (my darling broker) would be a happy man today.

I'm having problems with my trading platform. No, it isn't the quake. It's just that once I start scalping, I become picky and what didn't use to bother me bothers me big time now.

The issue I'm facing is that the AT DOM is lagging. I rely both on my chart and my tape for entry and exit. They are both equally important to me. I can't trade without either one. Once the DOM is out of sync with my chart, I'm seriously handicapped. Yesterday wasn't too much of a problem coz price was just plunging and you can click anywhere and - if you're not greedy - you'll get out with something. Today's the real test.

I have written to Anthony and know that I'll hear from him like... about... NOW. He's the solution man. There hasn't been a time that I had asked a question and he wasn't able to answer.

But I did pose a difficult question. So we'll see.

Won't go live until I'm able to get extremely reliable data feed.

Update:
I'm not sure if it's just a problem with the demo account. D's DOM wasn't as bad although it still lags a little. But then again we trade differently. Yes, he got his 1.2 points again.

Apathy

I learned about Sumatra's powerful earthquake when D came home last night telling me about it. His office building had shaken quite badly.

I checked out the news this morning and saw the report (in italic below) that had me shaking my head in disbelief. Singaporeans "screaming and shouting"??? I hardly felt a thing! And I live right in the heart of the business district.

Ok, actually, I did sense something - when I was taking a break from my screen to transport my dry laundry from the machine to my walk-in wardrobe. As I was about to step back out into my bedroom, I heard strange sounds coming from the upper shelf of the wardrobe (my home is so quiet I can hear a pin drop).

I looked up and saw the wooden clothes hangers on both D's and my side knocking into one another, as if someone was playing with them. At first I thought it was Keish that was playing and shaking the structure (which is highly unlikely coz it's a really sturdy structure!).

But Keish was out in the living room, and Alberto was standing right next to me, staring at exactly the same thing/ phenomenon that I was staring at.

The next thought that crossed my mind: " Is 7th month over (it's what the chinese call the "hungry ghost month" where your ancestors come back to visit you for a month...well, something along that line)? Well it's gotta be since the burning (of incense, paper money, paper houses, paper handphones, paper limousines, paper DOMESTIC HELPERS, etc etc) has stopped..."

And then I thought maybe it was the strong wind.

But my home is sealed 24 hours a day (internal ventilation system) and there's never wind.

I stood there thinking for about 5, maybe 10 mins (I really don't know, it seems like a pretty long time, coz I was just standing there, doing nothing).

I looked at Al, Al looked at me curiously (Al's always interested in whatever I'm doing - PERFECT LOVER)...

And then I decided.

What the heck, if I can't explain it, it's not worth my time.

I went back to my charts, and got so fixated I never felt the building move (I live on the 27th floor - according to D, I should have at least felt a little nauseous, which I didn't. But that was when I figured out what had moved my heavy wooden hangers!).

Anyway, D got home and told me about the tremors they felt in the office. D always downplays things, so I suppose there must have been some kind of commotion.

Then, we got down to talking about how terrible life has been for the people of Sumatra.

That evolved into a discussion on the hundreds of millions of landmines that are buried across the world - Vietnam, Cambodia, Angola, Afghanistan, and I asked why people choose to live in areas with landmines beneath them.

"Honey, they didn't choose to live there. They have no choice coz they are poor."

Such a heavy after-dinner topic.

10 minutes later, I was back at my workstation waiting for market to open in 5 minutes. In a matter of minutes, I was back in my sheltered world.

Ok, as I'm writing, I can feel the building I live in moving from side to side. I'm hearing sirens from fire engines. My breakfast's hardly touched and my blueberry juice's placed right next to my laptop and I was concerned it was going to spill....

Yes, that's the only thought that crossed my mind. Then I realize that I've become "singaporeanized" without my knowing.

HORRORS.

Sumatra's just been hit really badly again (if I can feel it, it's bad) and all I could think about was blueberry juice spilling over at my workstation.

News article on the quake, which I extracted from yahoo news this morning:

SINGAPORE: Singaporeans island—wide literally felt the earth move under their feet as tremors shook the island in areas as diverse as Redhill in central Singapore to the northeast of the country like Pasir Ris.

This, after a powerful earthquake of magnitude 7.6 hit Indonesia.

Singapore’s Meteorological Services confirmed that the earthquake hit at about 6.15 pm this evening in the waters off Southern Sumatra about 530 kilometres from Singapore.

Minutes later, MediaCorp’s news hotlines started ringing as Singaporeans reported feeling tremors that lasted anywhere between 30 seconds and a few minutes.

Police and SCDF said they received more than 150 calls about the quake.

Videos sent in by viewers showed chandeliers swaying, as were other objects.

The calls came from across the island — Ang Mo Kio in the central , Marine Parade in the east, Punggol in the northeast and Raffles Place, in the central business district.

Callers said that some workers in the Suntec area and Changi Business Park were evacuated.

One man said: "There were a lot of office people on the roadside. We felt it for about five to ten minutes."

Others said their neighbours were screaming and shouting.

Rajakumar Choppa who works at Expo Changi Business Park, said: “Around 6 pm, we felt some kind of a building shake. I felt it three times actually and then we all stood up and rushed downstairs because there was some fire alarm in the building.

“When we got downstairs, there was a crowd. We were all watching and not knowing what was happening. I was able to see the building literally shaking.”

Callers also reported jams in the Causeway area as the bridge was shaking.

Experts MediaCorp spoke to said the situation was bad.

Professor Kerry Sieh, professor of Geology, Earth Observatory of Singapore, NTU, said: "It’s definitely getting worse. The earthquake sequence began in 2000 with a 7.9 about 800 km away from the south of Singapore. You haven’t felt this big of a sequence of earthquakes that is many large earthquakes for at least 175 years."

A tsunami warning was initially issued after the quake but later withdrawn. — CNA/vm

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

For The Umpteenth Time: I'm A Scalper

Total: 3.5 Points

I entered the 1st trade at 9:33am, and wrapped up at 9:54am.

25 trades: 4 losing (highlighted above)

I realized that I've been using all the wrong time frames to trade the TF (maybe even the ES too.... On NQ, I used the tape and 1min last year and it was pretty darn good).

I used to be good at running, and that was because I wasn't using 3, 5, or 10min charts (actually, NEVER 10 min, as I recall)!

I'm doing this for maybe another day on sim.

Then I'm going live.

Afterall, this was exactly how I traded when I first started ie. it's nothing new.

Why I switched to 10min yesterday, I really haven't the slightest idea.

My most educated guess is that I woke up yesterday morning feeling OLD.

I forgot that D said that I'm a 16-year-old trapped in the body of a 37-year-old.

Really, 10min charts kill my brain cells.

So do 3 and 5 min charts.

I can understand using 5min for forex futures, but for TF during active hours, opting out of 1min chart last year was the single biggest mistake I made.

D has always thought that I'm an extremely extreme person.

I guess I'm just wired that way.

Can't learn any other way.

Definitely no baby steps.

Update:
I was chatting with J and told him I was in and out of the market 25 times in less than 30 mins (20, to be precise, and I totally forgot the Chicago PMI data release!). J said that's a lot of work. I said it's the easiest day for me in the longest time. Really, I'd rather focus intensely on my chart for half an hour than to stare at it for 8, 12 or 16 hours. Looking at my charts for too long makes me see things that are not there, and overlook things that are there!

TF Trades 9/29 (Tues) - Hitting A Stone Wall

D's result:

Mine:
Humbling...

What happened:

TF 10min

TF 5min
Clearly, had I used the 5mins, I would have not entered my first trade. I would be expecting a falling 3 method (bearish), and wouldn't have bought. And I would have gotten in at a better price for the 2nd trade had I entered on a 5min.

That there were screw ups on the AT platform hadn't helped. I couldn't get out of my losing trade at 1.2 point loss when I knew it was going awry, and I couldn't get out of my winning trade when I was getting 1.9 points. D asked why I wouldn't use the "Flatten" feature. I don't know. I guess I was just too busy feeling pissed to look for alternatives.

D had a talk with me before we turned in. He commented that I am bruised and yet on the surface I am fighting ferociously and a tad too aggressively - to the point that I would not hesitate to revamp my entire trading method in a bid to improve my results - when what I need to do is really to just go back to doing what I'm good at doing.

And I have to agree. It's just that I'm really not sure now what is it that I have been good at doing.

Pressing on nonetheless.

D said I'm more of an engineer than him. How ironic that we were in the same engineering lectures in our first year, and I was the one that opted out to pursue another degree - despite my very good result in the subjects that bore me the most (ENGINEERING, PHYSICS) - while he stayed and got his masters!

Definitely seeing a pattern here.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

TF Trades 9/28 - Done With Scalping

Above is a 10min chart of TF. This is the way that I'll be trading from now on. There are fewer entries, but that's a good thing for me. My target is more or less set after the first 30min ie. all entries will have the same profit target. Stop loss is set a tick or 2 below/above signal candle for all entries.

Missed my first entry when I switched to the lower time-frame charts to take a look (feeling insecure). When I came back to my 10-min chart, price has moved almost a point above where I would have had wanted to enter. Had I taken the trade, I would have to risk more than what I was comfortable with. So I gave it up and waited for another signal.

I got my signals. D asked why I was buying high. I said coz it was going higher. It's a 15 - 17 point day. D asked how I knew. I said coz price had come up from an almost round bottom low, and then broke out of OR and closed strongly, and that OR was near to 10 points. Basically, I was trading based on what I know about TF.

I'm not an expert trading the 10min timeframe yet (which explains why I tightened my stop unnecessarily on my first and second entry) , so I'm going to stop blabbing. Will share more as I go along.

Monday, September 28, 2009

Logics Of Trading

D has a BSc in Computer Engineering and a Masters degree in Electrical Engineering and has another major in Accounting.

He's the kind that should totally stay away from trading.

But today, D nets a 1 to 2 point profit on a daily basis trading the TF. His losses are so small it makes me mad. His stop-loss is 7 TICKS. On choppy days, if he chooses to trade, he will lift his stops and use a mental stop instead but he's never lost more than 1 point per trade.

Which makes me wonder, how does a person so logical and controlling manage to win consistently in trading?

When D started trading the eminis, he knew next to nothing about them. Everything he knew about trading the ES and TF, he had learned it from me. D doesn't like to read (again, makes me really mad that he aced all his examinations in university). He doesn't even bother listening to tapes that teach one how to trade. He can put up with a 2-hour session with me once in 3 months where I share with him some of my trading methods, and a 15-min session every evening before the US market opens where I tell him what to watch out for. And that's about it. He paper traded for a few days and has gone live since.

In the first 9 months that he began trading the eminis, he would constantly ask me where market's heading. And I would tell him I think price should be aiming for this and that level. And D will watch. After a few minutes, he would ask again if price was really getting there, and I would tell him that it should unless it doesn't.

Sometimes he would enter a trade based on what I said, and in the middle of a trade he would ask if price's going to hit his target. I would tell him there's a possibility it would, but I really don't know for sure. That's my standard reply to his questions. And he would be totally flabbergasted. "I thought you've done all your analysis??"

Blaming. Hmmm...

And I would ask him instead what his exit plan is.

"What exit plan???!"

I would then stare at him in disbelief and then give him a "you're so DEAD" look that would make him so mad he would exit his trade immediately and storm out for a smoke to cool down.

Once I asked him how much he's willing to give away for the bet he's taking. He looked at me as if I was crazy. He's trading to make money, not to lose money, so I could understand his reaction. I told him that he should take trades based on how much he wants to lose, and not based on how much he wants to win. How much he loses is entirely his choice. How much he wins is not, assuming that he's gone in on a high probability setup (validating his decision to enter).

It took him months to digest what I said. The controlling and logical part of him just couldn't grasp a concept that focuses on "losing" rather than "winning". Every time I hit my 2 to 3 point profit in one trade or via a few scalps, he would ask why I hadn't sounded him out that there were opportunities. And I would tell him that the risk is more than what he would be willing to take.

"But you were sure that price is going there right???"

"Absolutely not. Which is why I had entered on a relatively tiny candle that allows me to use a smaller stop. But that tiny candle is still too huge for you (D can't stand giving away more than 1 point on any trade, while I WAS comfortable with a 2 to 7 point stop in ER2/TF)."

"But you were fairly confident about the trade right, after all your research and studies???"

"I'm never sure of anything, honey, and I don't want you to blame me when the trade goes awry, so, no, I'm not giving you any tips. Go take a cold shower."

And D would storm out to get a smoke.

There were occasions where I have taken over trades he simply couldn't manage (it's hard for me to see D nervous, coz D's almost always COOL) and helped him make profits that he would never let run had he traded on his own. But as much as I can help it, I encourage/force him to make his own trading decisions.

After 1 year of lousy coaching from me, D's now as independent as my cats. On that few occasions that I had wanted to interfere, he had told me nicely to leave him alone and that he's on top of things. I'm impressed.

D's losing days are few, and his losses are in ticks. He takes an average of 1.5 points from the market each day, and he trades EVERY DAY. I took a look at his chart that day out of curiosity, and was shocked to see that nothing on them had changed. Absolutely NOTHING. He has been using the very same charts with the same indicators that I gave him on them (which he doesn't use at all coz I never taught him how to use them), the same methods that I taught him before (he hasn't learned anything else on his own - coz, well, D DOESN'T LIKE TO READ) - mainly bull and bear TRAP setups, failed breakouts, failed flags, failed everything - checks with me about the trend for the day everyday before the session begins, watches for traps, and goes for TINY signal candles (the fact that candles on the eminis have been tiny these days has been a blessing for him).

What makes D an outstanding engineering student (D's NOT an engineer today. He's a slave-driving banker) had made him a consistent trader. He has used logics in a way that helps him in his trading. Yes, it's logical to listen to me coz I'm usually, if not always, RIGHT. Muahahahaha!!!!

Ok, seriously, I think the reason that D is a much better trader than me today (I'm not even trading, and he's been trading daily) is coz D is ok with being BORED. He's not interested in trying out new things as long as what he's doing is making him money. He has been determined in the right way. Despite the many times that I had played pranks on him, and my not answering his questions directly, he had pressed on, believing that he would get consistent one day. Now, he doesn't even recall the silly questions he asked me before (eg. why price hadn't gone where I said it would go). He looks at how much he stands to lose if he's wrong, before he considers anything else.

And yes, I nearly fell out of my chair when I noticed his standard 7-tick stop-loss for the TF. "You mean you can make money with that kind of stop???"

"Yes, honey, you can"

And then he went about doing his own thing, never offering any tips on how he did it.

UNGRATEFUL CREATURE.

D trades on IB mainly, and sometimes on AT platform. IB's DOM is acceptable to him. He looks at just one chart, while I look at too many charts now. I have 3 screens, he has 1. I read too many books, he reads none. I spend too much time watching charts, he spends 2 hours per day - 15 mins before market open and then for about 2 hours when he's trading. I have almost halted all trading, and he is trading daily and has had no losing weeks for 3 MONTHS now.

Something's very wrong with the picture.

Either that, or something's very wrong with me.

JIMMY,
See? Engineers can be very good traders :-)

I've turned comments back on. The community's getting too quiet...

Saturday, September 26, 2009

TF - Messy

It's:
post-trend day
post-FOMC day
2 consecutive days with home sales data release
FRIDAY

Experience told me to stay away. And I'm glad I did.

Sim traded instead. Was all over the place:

Thursday, September 24, 2009

TF - Posting Of PnL

TF Sim Trading

TF 3min

Giving up 6J and all the other forex futures for now. I like to trade something that I can trade almost everyday and forex futures are just not in that category.

So I'm back trading TF, and have finally settled on a method of trading it. The method is still highly discretionary, but I'm comfortable coz I know TF and am working within a familiar structure. There are certain rules that I observe now and setups that I stick to. I'll trade a few of my preferred setups once the context allows me to trade them, and am giving up the ones that call for wider stops.

It's been a long break for me. Much of it I spent doing some meaningless soul-searching (biggest achievement: buying USD 100k of URE at 4.80 for my aunt, and selling it 2 weeks later ie. last Thurs right at market open, at 6.66 helping her earn more than USD 32k - URE follows TF's trend and is easy for me to monitor - before market started to go into a range, and this had D suggesting that maybe I should really swing trade coz I tend to get a sense of where market's going....ha ha). Some good came out of it though. I shan't say more. Let's say I finally decided that NOW is the time that I quit berating myself for a past that I cannot change, and start doing what's necessary to move on.

I owe a big THANK YOU to those in my circle of trust (just a handful of you and you know who you are). It's strange that while I find cyberspace a highly dangerous place, I've shared with my trading/blogging community the most intimate details of what's been eating me. For the first time, I have 3rd opinions, and I am receptive (SURPRISE!). I haven't the slightest clue on how I'm going to go about expressing my gratitude now. But I'll know what to do when the time comes.

Thank you Ed, Cory, PT, EJ, JK, James, MVW, Jack (J), MM, Solfest, JE, Jimmy, De'Trader, UF (I know you really meant to say something LOL!), Sage, Lonely, Leon, Daytrader, Jaya, my coach Michael, my broker Anthony, for having listened to my rants for the past days/weeks/months and given me a shoulder to cry on.

JE, have you gone private?

I'm posting my TF results (live trading) starting tmrw.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

6J Trades 9/16 (Wed) & Decapitated Hanbok

Total: + USD 237

6J 5min

6J 5min (close-up)
Everything Else That I Look At:

Posting resumes today. I will be posting monthly or bi-monthly statements beginning Oct (details of trades available in monthly statements).

That said, I'm not trading the 6J everyday.

A precious lesson that I've learned in the past few months of trading forex futures is that I can't trade them the way I trade index futures.

In a month, there're only 8 to 10 days that FX futures are nice to trade.

That's probably coz I've not figured out the "structure" for trading the 6J, 6E, and 6B on an intraday basis, which I did for the TF (and to a certain extent, the ES).

Seabloke got her twins some Korean dolls when they attended Pilot's wedding in Korea. The younger twin insisted that Sea take a picture of her doll to show D (she brought the doll along when they dropped by mine yesterday), and insisted on beheading the doll. She attempted to get the older twin to do the same, but the latter refused (whether she was appalled I have no idea - nothing really freaks my family out).

The picture that totally cracked D up (D adores all things evil):


Thursday, September 3, 2009

From 3K to 11K in 30 Trading Days




(Update: Just noticed that my subject title was misleading. It read "from 3k to 8K", which is incorrect, coz Michael's profit is 8K. So it should read "from 3k to 11k")

These statements are not mine.

They are Michael Woo's.

After I announced that I was going to show that it's possible to double one's trading account in 2 months starting with as little as 5K, Michael started his own project, and he started with 3K.

In less than 2 months, he's turned 3k into 11K (my math sucks, so do your own - all I can see is that that is more than double the amount he started with).

He sent me his statements a few days ago, as a way to spur me on.

I nearly cried when I received his email.

Truth is, after I stopped posting, I've gone on a trading spree to find out my fatal flaws.

I found them, and I'm glad it wasn't too expensive an exercise.

All of us will have to pay our dues to learn something about the market and about ourselves.

I had stepped out of my comfort zone to explore what is out there, and within me, that could ruin my trading career if I continue to be blind to them.

I did so because I sensed that something was amiss even though I was making - according to D - very good progress in my 5k project.

I have to say, that I don't regret my decision to take a step back to evaluate the feasibility of continuing the project. I recognized that I was making money at the expense of learning and growing and I knew that the result would not be a sustainable one.

Michael, on the other hand, has had many years of experience doing what he's doing now, and is the perfect candidate for an "account doubling" project. His trading result is a clear demonstration of what one can do when he can confidently and faithfully apply his winning strategy in his trading day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year.

It took me 2 full days to go over all his trades and I am confident that I know now exactly what he was doing, and how he managed his risk. What he does supports what Carl has posted on his blog recently, which is actually a comment that Ziad has left on a trader's blog that was posted on Emini-Player's.

Michael has kindly allowed me to publish his statement. I decided to remove the details of his trades coz I think that's only fair to him.

I am very fortunate to have Michael as a friend and a mentor. I knew him when I signed up for his basic trading course last year. I paid him less than USD 1200 for a 5-month course (that was AFTER I paid more than twice that amount for another basic trading course which still leaves me wondering today if it was worth it).

Like I said many times before, I have a very short attention span, and always run before I learn to walk, so needless to say, I didn't complete the 5-month course, and instead sat in the intensive 2-day version, without paying an additional cent.

Michael introduced me to eminis last August and took a day to show me exactly how he traded the TF (ER2 back then). I was very much a scalper, and a very ignorant one, and simply couldn't grasp the significance of what he was showing me.

In the 12 months that followed, we would meet up now and then to talk about everything under the sun, and I would hear more of how he traded, and he would tease me about my fear of losing money.

Let me be clear - Michael has NEVER once criticized the way I traded. Whenever I shared my frustration over my lack of progress, he would ask what I was so afraid of, and give very zen response which would take me days to fully digest and appreciate.

Michael is the kind of teacher that makes you think, and allows you to explore, yet periodically checking up on you and providing updates on his own progress (in a way, showing you how he does it), without making you feel that he's in any way imposing his philosophies and strategies on you.

It's taken me an entire year to grasp the essence of his every seemingly light-hearted remark on how a REAL trader trades.

Within that one year, I've made many mistakes, some rather costly, and I gather that's what they call "paying one's dues".

But I don't believe that one has to keep on paying.

If you are really serious about trading, keep a positive attitude and build the mental toughness that you need to stay in the game.

Conscientiously STUDY THE MARKET and seek out a truly wise and experienced trader that has a good heart and temperament to guide you.