Saturday, October 11, 2008

How I Trade The NQ - A TOTAL DISASTER

D read what he was supposed to read (It's an irony that I had started blogging seriously on TRADING for D, yet he seems more interested in my non-trading related postings!), so I am resuming my blogging activity.

This has gotta be the most comical of all my trades - paper and real (NOT the YG - that was the trade I closed earlier today):



It was a trade I shouldn't have taken (wrong timeframe), but I went in anyhow.

I was looking for a trade.

I had spent 9:30 - 11am staring at a chart that had obviously made a lower high, fallen back below 1280, and DID NOTHING.

And I can't stand not having done anything. So, I went in at the 12:35 candle (circled in grey on chart below), and set my profit target at 1210.



What happened next was typical of what had been happening for the past few sessions - the trade went against me almost immediately.

Since I've set my profit target, I decided to take a shower.

That was a clear sign of me giving up.

I told D to take over the trade.

He did, and closed my trade at 1225 (I entered at 1226.25 with 2 contracts).

A while later, he came in to apologize, coz NQ had gone below 1210.

I said it was ok. There was really nothing to be sorry about. It was the wrong entry anyway.

I had totally lost the ability to catch a plunge.

I no longer know what I am doing.

With ER2, I used to have a plan.

I either went in pre-market for a swing with a stop loss in place, or I scalped without a stop, and ran whenever I started losing by a few ticks.

With NQ, the first few days were good - I could catch the plunge at the moment it plunged.

Then I started to have to sit through major retracements before I could get my targeted profit (there were occasions where I simply couldn't cut my loss when the loss was up to $3000!).

I always ended up getting my $1000 over profit, coz we're basically in a bear market, and NQ always ended up at a certain fib level (138.2/ 161.8). And since I tend to give a lot of buffer (my profit target is always far away from that level), it was not at all difficult to get the profit I wanted with the contract size I was trading.

But those were paper trades.

Seeing a loss of $3000 was NOT NICE, but it wasn't devastating. So I had always held on, coz what I was focusing on was my destination. I didn't care how I got there, as long as I got there.

Would it have been different if I were using real money?

I would think so.

Now of course I could rationalize that if I could get away with that kind of trading system (if I could call it a system in the first place) 10 times out of 10, then i should just trust that it will work in real-money trades.

But I couldn't convince myself to use such a method. It was a method that works only when there isn't a stop loss.

I just need to be wrong once to have a substantial portion of my account wiped out.

What I am looking at is more than a position sizing problem.

Even when I scaled down to 5 contracts, I sat through the same retracement.

It's extremely frustrating to be able to visualize mountains and flags before they even took shape, yet not knowing where to enter without taking a huge loss on paper first.

Like I said, with real money, I just need to be wrong once to suffer a huge setback.

The problem that I've been having with NQ is that I don't cut loss.

When I'm supposed to scalp, I don't run when I'm supposed to. When I decided to stay for a longer trade, I don't set a stop loss.

All my rules are thrown out of the window.

I kept insisting I know where my destination is, but I hadn't given much thought to how I get there.

If I keep getting hitchhikes like that, I could get murdered before I get to my destination.

I know it has something to do with the target I set.

With ER2, I didn't really have a daily target - I just took whatever I could get from the market.

Was I happy with my results?

Not really.

So I set a higher target.

Without this higher target in mind, I could start trading NQ right away with real money.

But I don't want to.

I am giving it another shot at achieving my target of 1k a day with a reasonable risk to reward ratio.

And I will let time tell me if I am naive, greedy, or just simply nuts.

Friday, October 10, 2008

New Label

Starting from my next posting on pre-market analysis/comments, I'm going to have to add a label "Must Read For D".

I used "SCHIZO" to describe the market in my earlier posting today.

And it did exactly what I said it MIGHT do.

That's why I'm mad.

I will stop blogging until D reads MUST READ.

&%$%*#%&$!!!!!

D is still adorable of course.

Very adorable.

FX (Simulated) Trades 10/8 - Closed All Positions

Came back from the hospital and noticed that unrealized P & L has shrunk from 4700 to around 3300.

Closed all positions.

Regroup.

Anyway, when US market opens, it alway does something to my P & L, and it usually is NOT good.

I would have loved to leave half on the table, but I haven't found that option on Oanda.

Haven't found the trail stop feature either.

I'm glad I'm paper trading.

Current NAV: 110,000

FX - Reasons For Sitting and Holding

Here are the reasons I'm holding my positions:

Technically:
Monthly and weekly charts are all showing BB that's either just beginning to widen or is still widening, MACD and Stoch all supporting a bearish trend.

AUD and NZD


JPY Crosses


Fundamentally:
  • Market's jittery, best to play risk aversion ie. LONG JPY.
  • Shorting AUD and NZD (NOT longing USD, but really just shorting AUD. And since I'm shorting AUD, might as well short NZD - since NZ's economy depends so much on what happens in Australia. I could short AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY of course, but that will mean too much exposure to JPY. If even rising gold can't help these 2 countries, I'm going to sit on my short entry for now.
P&L for now

YG (Simulated) Trade - Close Position

Closed position. Before it offsets my "profit" in FX. Silly to wait til it goes up to 923. Regroup.

FX (Simulated) Trades 10/8 - Tempted To Take Profit

All in green. Tempted to close positions!!



Proprietary Trader, I'm hopeless at sitting tight!

But I'll hold.

YG (Simulated) Trade and NQ

Yikes!!!


Holding until it goes up to 923 again. Looks like one failed bull flag after another to me.



NQ Oct 10


If NQ doesn't go up to 1280, and stay above that before 12pm EST today, it's going to plunge to fib 161.8.

I'm not betting on it to climb up to that level (1280) pre-market.

Hence, am not going to enter short (yup, I'm still a bear) before market opens - even if it tests 1280 and fails.

Market's a little schizo now, and might just rally after 9:30am EST.

NQ 30min

FX (Simulated) Trades 10/8 - Update

(Click to enlarge)


Holding.

Monthly and weekly charts are encouraging.

For details, see this.

Current net asset value (since 100k game account was opened on Sep 25) : $109,941

Free Falling NQ, YM and ES??

Fib 161.8 & 261.8 levels for:

NQ: 1120 & 923

YM: 8080 & 6380

ES: 839 & 640

NQ


NQ


YM


ES

Thursday, October 9, 2008

NQ (Simulated) Trades 10/9

For now...


Charts are all screwed and the only one that's usable (barely) is the 1 day 1-min. Had to rely on my indicators, and noticed that they are not too bad.

Wonderful Life

Didn't trade last night.

Brought Al and Keisha to Dr Nathan's. Al had his daily shots of antibiotic and liquids , and Keisha was there for a blood test.

Seems like Al's getting better.

But Keisha is the problem now. She's not been eating. Bad teeth. Dr Nathan has put her on medication for the time being until she's ready for her dental surgery.

By the time we got home, market has already opened. After we had dinner, it was near 11am EST.

Granny's going to be transferred to another hospital. She's no longer going to be herself. She won't be able to sit up and eat anymore; she probably wouldn't be able to move at all for the rest of her life.

D is going to Hong Kong this month to meet up with his mum who's flying in from LA, and they will spend a week there visiting their friends and relatives.

And I gather that while he's there, D will probably check in on a significant someone.

D had asked me to join him, since my closest friends and my only child are now living in Hong Kong.

I turned down the kind offer.

Too huge an emotional baggage.

Too many bad memories.

And a single person whose throat I'm afraid I'll go for should I run into her.

I'm convinced now, that there are just too many things that I can't prevent from happening.

The best I can do is to let go, and be prepared for the days where all the people that matter to me will leave me - one at a time, one way or the other.

And D is the first person I have to purge from the core of my heart. He is a good person. But I'm not. So we are inherently NOT meant to be. And for as long as I know that, I'll always be prepared for him to leave me for a sweet, decent, NORMAL woman.

So, I'm letting him go, for the 2nd time in 6 months, to a place that I think will haunt me for a very long time.

Anyway, it'll be fun without him around. I can now sit in front of my computer for 20 hours a day, skip my meals, skip all my grooming routines ,and be a bona fide WITCH!!

I'm glad I have a cleaning lady, coz I'm going to have to depend on her to make my shell as sanitized as it can possibly get before D's mum arrives. Something to do with first impressions.

Yes, that's going to be the first time I'm meeting D's mum in the 15 years that I've been with D.

She's a brain surgeon; I'm a smoker.

I think we'll make great pals.

Ha Ha.

One of D's favorite songs (I don't need to be a genius to figure out that the friend he needs isn't me, and I wonder when I'll ever be kind enough to release him):

Wonderful Life

Here I go out to see again
the sunshine fills my hair
and dreams hang in the air
Gulls in the sky and in my blue eyes
you know it feels unfair
there's magic everywhere

Look at me standing
here on my own again
up straight in the sunshine

No need to run and hide
it's a wonderful, wonderful life
No need to laugh and cry
it's a wonderful, wonderful life

Sun in your eyes
the heat is in your hair
they seem to hate you
because you're there
and I need a friend
Oh, I need a friend
to make me happy
not stand here on my own

Look at me standing
here on my own again
up straight in the sunshine

No need to run and hide
it's a wonderful, wonderful life
No need to laugh and cry
it's a wonderful, wonderful life

I need a friend
oh, I need friend
to make me happy
not so alone.......
Look at me here
here on my own again
up straight in the sunshine

No need to run and hide
it's a wonderful, wonderful life
No need to laugh and cry
it's a wonderful, wonderful life

No need to run and hide
it's a wonderful, wonderful life
No need to run and hide
it's a wonderful, wonderful life
wonderful life, wonderful life

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

FX (Simulated) Trades 10/8

4 positions opened at 6:45am EST:


Not filling me yet....
Fine.

NQ (Simulated) Trades 10/7 - Reduced Contract Size

Reduced my contract size to 5 today. This is the last parameter that I'm tweaking. I leave the best for last.

All those times that I've traded ER2, I've been talking about my lines - my dotted lines, my brown lines, my lilac lines etc. I don't know if anyone out there actually has any inkling what I was talking about, I'll do my best to expound on this....but not today (it's Al time now - he's still very sick).

There's a slight difference in the way I trade NQ. Will transcribe what I have scribbled on my scrapbook...again, not today.

Anyway, I've decided to trade 5 instead of 10 contracts because I really want to be able to use what I've taken quite a bit of effort to figure out - those lines.

With 10 contracts, it's difficult to stick with my profit targets. I want to be able to let my profit run, and I can only do so with a reduced position.

Here's my result for today:




NQ 30min (click on chart to see enlarged version - blue dotted horizontal line and blue trend line are the lines that will make me run if they are breached; green line is from 5min chart, where I decided only during market open that that was as low as NQ would go before 2pm - and I don't intend to trade til 2 today...)

Monday, October 6, 2008

NQ (Simulated) Trade 10/6

Havoc. Dow broke 10,000 support.

NQ's range is obscene (so visually obscene on 1min chart I don't even want to show it here).

Used all 30min, 5min and 1min today - Fib extension for PT on 30min, BB and S&R on 5min, entry on 1min.

NQ 30min


NQ 5min






Still holding on to YG - entered much earlier today, and couldn't monitor it as Al had to be sent to the clinic.

"Profit" for NQ today: $1054

D is a total contrarian: going long when NQ was plunging, and earned $280. Real money!!! D looks at Dow and NDX and caught the divergence. I've given up on divergence long time ago. I love my chart.

How I Trade The ER2

In this posting from yesterday, I mentioned that if ER2 doesn't break above 742, I'll short it to 723.

I was asked how I would deal with the other resistances below 742.

I haven't been able to explain that. I suck at explaining anything.

So, what I'm going to do is to show exactly how I plan for my trade/s on a typical trading day.

The first thing I do before I even look at my ER2 chart is to see how the market has done yesterday and the days before, and if I can, find out WHY the market is behaving the way it's behaving.

Knowing the whys gives me a better sense of whether a trend will last. Knowing the whys
these days tells me whether YESTERDAY's trend will last (nowadays, you just can't think beyond 1 day's trend), and who (bulls or bears) will be the jittery one today should price fail to hit a support or resistance.

In a climate where no one knows for sure where the market is heading, and where most players are opportunists taking a ride hopefully on the right side, what we are all playing is just FEAR. What I have learnt so far about an uptrend is that it is motivated by HOPE and GREED and a downtrend is fueled by FEAR. But these days, a decidedly strong upward move could be one that's driven by fear too -frightened bears covering.

As far as ER2 is concerned, you seldom see ranging sessions these days. They are either strong trending days or CHAOTIC sessions that give you fake breakouts and NO PATTERNS. These are all signs of extreme sentiments to me. Everyone's jumping in when they see an opportunity, and fleeing when it looks like the party is going to be over sooner than they thought.

Did I digress again??

Anyway, an example of the things I look at before I study my 30min chart for intraday trade has been documented in my previous post.

Now, my 30-min chart.

This is the zoomed out view of my 30-min chart (click on chart for enlarged view), which I use to find key support and resistance lines:



First, I look for the lines that I think are the ones that the bears and the bulls will be hoping to see breached. And if these lines are not hit, you'll get a trend in the first (sometimes longer, maybe til 11am) hour of the trading session (On some days, I simply can't find a line that I can work with and that's usually when there's nothing much happening in a market that's going nowhere in the first place...).

For today, I do have something to work with: a rally on Monday on ONE SINGLE piece of news that has so far not exactly been well-received (except by those who bought of course), and a Tuesday where almost all the gains on Monday were lost.

So, my question at this point would be this: was that just profit taking, or frantic offloading (afterall, and I'm refering to just ER2, yesterday's session failed to reach the high of Monday's session, and this is not exactly the sign of a healthy uptrend)? If it's the former, will price continue its upward move following Monday's gain?

At this point, I take a look at Monday's price movement. Not at all bullish. The gains were from the gap. After that was DOWN almost all the way, followed by bears taking profit and covering (maybe even some new buying??) in the later part of the day.

So, now, I really have no reason to think that the market is optimistic.

But on a day when everything's so grim, bottom fishers would start coming in, won't they?

So, there you go - my thoughts all in a jumble again.

I go back to my chart to seek some solace.

I look for the first resistance that I think would discourage the bulls if it's not broken. That would be the support from Monday's session. 722.35 (in lilac - my favorite color - dotted line on my chart).

Then I look for the first support that I think would send the bears covering if it's not breached. Yesterday's low. 707 (in brown dotted line on my chart).

As far as I'm concerned, I don't care about all the other support and resistance between them. By a certain time, if either one of them has been tested but not breached, that will give me a rough idea of who's going to be running for cover.

On some days, the lines are not tested at all before market opens. That's when I don't get an entry pre-market. Those are the days I play by ear and SCALP.

Back to today. On my charts there are lines below and above my lilac and brown dotted lines. Those are my DREAM profit-targets. When looking for these lines, I look at where ER2 will likely hit by the end of the trading session. The support and resistance lines that will hold are the ones that have never been tested before or tested just once or twice. I look for those lines. But if they are too near (ER2's range is hardly less than 10 points per day), I look for the next line above when I'm looking for resistance, and the next line below when I'm looking for support.

For today, I'm bearish. So I'll be expecting ER2 to test 722. If it does, and test it several times before 830, I'll enter short and set my stop loss a few ticks above 722. My profit target will be 712 (Sep 4's low, which I think is likely to be where it will pause before making the next move). That's a 10 point move. If I get in with 2 contracts, I'll let my 2nd one run and set my profit target at 707 (yesterday's low).

On scalping days, I look at 5-min chart (I use 1 min chart to make sure I'm not shorting when price is moving up) and use Fib for resistance and support.

So, as far as I'm concern, all the other support and resistance lines on all the other time frames except the 30-min's are invisible to me.

For now, ER2 is trading in a range between 712 and 719. If it goes up and doesn't break above 719, it will mean that it's another scalping day for me (not entering coz 722 will be at the back of my mind. It's a line that remains to be tested).

HOW I SCALP THE ER2



The above is the correct chart for Sep 10.

The one shown in my posting yesterday was the chart for Sep 9's trading.

So, I ended up making 3 scalps yesterday because I didn't want to take a pre-market entry at 718 (a 4-point risk, since I expected 722.35 to be tested SOMETIME in the day and I had no idea when that'll be).

718 became resistance for the day. ER2 did go up to just touch 722 before coming back down again, finding support at around 715 at market close.

On non-trending days, I keep a lookout for patterns like double and triple tops and bottoms (tops mostly of course, since I'm bearish).

On a day that starts choppy, I focus on the 1min-chart, only stealing glances at the 5min now and then.

The 5min chart on such days totally stumps me. At about 10:40am EST yesterday, I was finally able to see a triple top taking shape. In general though, the 5min charts are NOT friendly on a day like yesterday.

Best to use the 1min.

On trending days, I use fib for entry on the 5min chart. I'll wait for the first wave to be formed (on days that I don't get an entry by 8:30am EST). When it retraces (on a down day, the first bullish candle is a sign), I draw a fib retracement. ER2 usually retraces to fib 38.2% - so that is where I draw my resistance (again, I'm referring to a down day).

I do not take a trade at the resistance though. The resistance is simply the price that I think ER2 will retrace to. If the next candle move above that line, I'll expect it to retrace to 50% or even to 61.8%.

ER2 will usually consolidate within the area bound by where it stops going down and the resistance level - with 3 to 4 short body candles. I will go in when it moves out of this range (that is, if ER2 retraces by only 38.2%. If it retraces beyond that to 50% or 61.8%, it usually will go up in channels of ABC corrective waves, and form tops and bottoms and mountains and valleys, on its way down. That will be a topic for another day)

Sometimes it goes back up a little before falling by 3 to 5 points. It's a chance that I have to take.

Sometimes I wait for a bearish candle to close below that range first. Sometimes I don't. It depends on how nervous I feel the market is.

On a lazy down day, I take my time, coz on these days, ER2 could retrace to 50% and I don't want to take that ride UP.

On a nervous sell-off day, everything happens fast and I go in when I see the chance.

I exit when price starts plunging. My target is usually around 1 to 2 points. So far, I've found it hard to hold for 2 points. The ER2 is predictable only IN RETROSPECT. Ironic. But true.

I find it easier to just take profits off the table whenever I can in a market like this. This is simply not a time to go in for a killing, for me personally. I could end up getting killed.

I'm making fewer trades now than before, because I don't have to make up for losing trades (which usually were winning trades that turned into a loss while I waited for my 2-point gain).

And I don't run as quickly as I used to. Now I wait for market to do what it has to do before giving me the plunge that I'm waiting for.

The challenge is in knowing when waiting in confidence becomes HOPING.

Knowing what the general market sentiment is (for the day and the past few days) helps here. In a generally uncertain market like the one we're seeing since the beginning of this week, the likelihood that price will go south is higher than the converse. Which is why I still can't make myself BUY.

But I'm always anticipating a crazy up day, hence I watch up for signs that ER2 is turning up.

The line that I set for the day on my 30-min chart, the line that makes bulls run - that's my POINT OF NO RETURN.

If I decide to hold any trade, and ER2 hits that point, and stays up, I'll exit. It's not happened yet. That day will have to be a day that offers a very attractive potential reward for me to want to take that risk.

GS 12 Jun 08

Started paper trading GS again in early June. Picked up FX again simultaneously and realized that it's still my favorite trading vehicle. But D loves GS...and that is good enough a reason for me to learn to trade equity well.

While I have done endless research on the best indicators to use for short-term trading, and love to experiment with them, I need to settle on one set to help D trade GS comfortably (especially when he's trading real money account!).

Since early this month, the indicators we've been using for price AFFIRMATION were SS(8,3) and RSI(4). We put in EMA7 (NOT for entry, but only for alternative exits from trades) but have hardly used that. I tend to wait for price confirmation first but D is usually impatient and will enter based on his usual method (what it is I have yet to figure out...).

Profits from my paper trading activities in Feb (a couple of days), Mid-Mar (a couple of days) and June (3 days to date) is a humble US$1,374.



I haven't an inkling how much D has made in his real money account...he trades almost everyday, and sometimes, i wonder if trading is more like a game to him than a way to get rich...er...?? In anycase, I'm happy that he gets satisfaction out of it. I'm inclined to believe that successful traders are the ones that aim to trade well, not to get rich. And above all, I think trading shouldn't be TOO boring an activity. Anything that we do shouldn't be boring, for that matter. We can find joy in every activity we engage in; we can find joy in executing the most mundane tasks like folding of clothes and washing of dishes and separating of our dirty laundries into colors and whites. I call that the joy of doing anything or even nothing, in solitude.

I can't quite remember how it started, maybe it was Michael who reminded me, but I was prompted to throw in MACD again for my GS trades after deciding it's a lousy indicator to use for FX trading. I am interested purely in looking for divergences between the MACD and GS's price to identify potential reversal and/or trend continuation.

To complicate matters (my default mode), I look at MACD using a top-down approach (by studying monthly charts first, then weekly and finally daily)and I look for both classic and hidden divergence.

Classic Divergence
Bullish Divergence: Lower lows in price which is NOT matched by lower lows in the MACD
Bearish Divergence: Higher highs in price which is NOT matched by higher highs in the MACD

Hidden Divergence
Bullish Divergence: Lower lows in MACD which is NOT matched by lower lows in price
Bearish Divergence: Higher highs in MACD which is NOT matched by higher highs in price

Anyone pulling up the GS chart would notice that since the issuance of its IPO in 1999, GS only started to go on a gradual upward trend in 2003. In May 2005, it began its steep climb from $95 to $230. It retraced once before in Aug 07 to around $162, the level we see GS hovering around now, providing what i see as a support for the next few trading days.

I've been telling D since Mar that GS is going DOWN. That's why i've always been more comfortable buying puts and shorting the share. But then again, I noticed that I have no loyalty when it comes to trading - i trade in whichever direction that seems right at that moment (I scalp and I can only scalp), though always keeping at the back of my mind the long-term and short-term trend. I also chuck the issue of value and morals out of the window - i don't know who I'm trading against and I don't want to know. I short as much as,if not more often than, I go long. Since I started trading GS in Mar (I was only into FX before that), I have not been able to stop conjuring up the image of a HUGE polar bear whenever the letters GS comes to mind...

Anyway, today is the first time I'm using MACD on GS to see what I can find and use for my trades tonight. This is NOT my trading plan. It's just a recce of sorts...

MACD Monthly :




MACD Weekly:




MACD Daily:



The way I would interpret the above is as follows:

Monthly Chart showing 2 consecutive bearish divergence (Apr06-Jan07; Jan07-Oct07)and 1 bearish convergence (Aug07-Mar08)tells me that the months to follow will see GS going south ie. it seems its uptrend since 2003 is ending (with GS peaking at 240 in Oct07).

Weekly and Daily Chart both showing bullish divergence suggests potential correction from previous days' downtrend and within the long-term downtrend. There's a possibility for GS to rally to Fib 61.8 level @ $177.78 (which incidentally is very near my 2 year S/R level @ 177.56) in the next few days. As always, I'll look for price cofirmation.

Premarket Analysis (ER2) 9/10

During a time when most are asking if we have seen the bottom, I find it odd that I keep asking the opposite: when are we really going to PLUNGE??

In other words, I kept looking at ER2's 764 and wondered if that's the top.

By now, I'm no longer wondering. I'm theorizing that 764 is MY top. It's a view I take. And I trade accordingly, until I have reasons (market conditions mainly...and when all who are calling people to buy because we have bottomed finally stop talking) to believe that my view is wrong.

Chart time!

Not going to go into DOW, S&P and NDX - we know how they are doing. Their charts are just indecipherable (to me).

RUT

RUT daily chart from 1991 to 2008:


I take a seed (the green shaded area) and draw both fib retracement and fib projection using the seed that is my wave 1.

Rut is currently about 40 points above fib retracement level of 38.2% (663). And it looks like it's wave c in the making.

Key support is at around 608, and that is where fib retracement 50 and fib projection 100 are too. Given that 663 has already been tested multiple times, my thinking is that if outlook continues to be grim, this support is not going to hold, and RUT is going to fall right through it. And the next support is at 608.

RUT daily chart from May 2008 to Sep 9 2008:


RUT has closed below MA 50 and 200 support, and below neckline (in brown). Another close below the neckline would give me just a little more conviction that it's going to be falling right to 647 in the short-term (days??).

The long bearish candle on Sep 9 has closed the gap between Sep 5 - 8. Putting aside the reality in the market, the chart alone tells me that a gap up in a downtrend is going to be trouble for the bulls. Granted that profit taking is happening right now, given that sentiments are so bearish all over (all major indices lost more than 2 % yesterday, and sectors across the board are doing terribly), today's direction is likely to be DOWN.

That's just my take, of course.

The only econ data to be released is oil inventory. But whatever the result, I don't think it's going to have any bearing on the market anymore.

Everyone's focus is on the finance sector now.

ER2
For those who bought on Monday's rally, some will be holding on as price slides across the sector, and the rest should be selling in frenzy, a reaction to the Lehman saga. Whether all who bought and wanted to get rid of what they had have sold yesterday remains to be seen. What I know is that if the session today does not go down to the a level below yesterday's low in the first half hour of the session, then sellers who jumped in yesterday and had not covered will be covering in frenzy, and we might just see something like this for today's session:



Or like this:


Gold and Oil - Oct 6, 2008

Oil (Down soon?)


Gold (Up for now?)

Sunday, October 5, 2008

From Jules in Jumbles May 08

Feel (From Jules in Jumbles 24 May 08
I've never felt this tired in my entire life. I'm physically and mentally tired. My soul is tired. I'm so tired having to move my fingers all over the keyboard to type out this post is a struggle. My dishes are not done; the laundry's in the machine and i have no idea what to do with them; the unpacked boxes remained unpacked; Al is begging for something and I haven't the energy to find out what it is; there are so many calls to make that I just can't be bothered anymore to make any of them. I should be updating my resume and sending them out but I have neither the motivation nor the inspiration to start work on it.

I'm officially the laziest and most useless person I see around me.

I've lived 35 years - 20 of which I lived exactly as I was taught to live by my dad, who was my role model, my idol, and the pillar of my strength and my life. It never occurred to me to question the rationale behind the way I was raised. I was brought up sheltered, overly protected, and isolated from the rest of the world. I was raised like a boy, and one that was expected to be without blemish. I hardly wore a dress, never really behaved like a typical girl, and never showed any signs of meekness. The only authority I submitted to was my dad's. It didn't bother him a bit that I was almost every teacher's nightmare. After all, I was bright, I was bold like a boy, and most importantly, I was not beyond his control.

I was a good kid by today's standard -

I smiled and greeted my parents every morning;

I smiled and greeted every adult that I met that was a friend or an acquaintance of my parents';

I never failed to express my gratitude for any services rendered to me;

I always asked politely for people to get out of my way;

I always apologized and smiled ever so sweetly to boys I beat up after bashing them up and after their parents complained to my dad about my bullying;

I never hit a girl (not really, I've slapped a pair of twins - which made them TWO girls - at one go);

I never whined;

up til I was 20 and married, I never reasoned with my dad over what he dictated that i should and should not do - suffice to say that how I felt about those ridiculously strict rules imposed on me was not of material concern to him - and on occasions that I so much as asked "why", I would get in every instance an angry "because I said so" response;

I did my workout, practiced on my electric organ, swam, ate, drank and slept at the time designated by my dad;

I kept no friends and therefore never really hogged the phone like the other normal teenage girls and guys did (the first person I spent longer than half an hour on the phone with was my baby sister's classmate, and the reason I bothered to talk to him in the first place was because he had loads of second hand books for sale and I loved books...anyways, we really clicked and hence chatted frequently, mostly about books and about his hunky brother who was incidentally a star athlete in my school...had I known that all my phone calls were actually tapped, I would never have talked about his cute brother that I was then insanely infatuated with!!);

I was chauffeured everywhere, and I do mean EVEYWHERE, by my dad so it was impossible for me to get into trouble anywhere else other than within my school compound;

my dad hardly had to see the principal more than once a month for her to complain to him about what a rogue I had been;

I never hit my maids;

I never tortured any living things - their deaths were swift (whilst I would supervise the blowing up of toads with fire starters, my baby brother, on the other hand, was covertly conducting vicious experiments like freezing grasshoppers to death, in jello...);

even in frustration over being confined, I always came out to greet and hug my dad after turning my room into a war zone (anger, or, to be precise, the free expression of anger, was something which was totally accepted in my family, as long as the expression bit was done in the privacy of our own rooms);

I never burdened my dad with meaningless grievances or annoyed him with the cliched "you don't/ won't understand" retort, because I was fully aware that I had not earned the right to be heard and understood;

I knew as a 4-year-old to not bother my parents with how bad I felt about anything - except about death - because having or showing emotions other than positive ones is a taboo;

as a 4-year-old (that was as far back as I could remember), I had mastered the art of giving a sunshine smile upon request, even when I was upset and feeling like beating the daylight out of the very person I had been asked to smile to (the only thing i couldn't smile to was the camera);

I never bullied anyone smaller (in size AND in age - I might be young but I had my principles)than me - why bother when my beating up of anyone male and bigger was fully condoned;

I knew what I wanted, asked in grammatically correct English (to say that bad English is frowned upon is a gross understatement) for whatever I wanted, then waited for my request to be processed, and whenever the outcome was a "no", I always had the option of throwing a fit behind the doors of my own room, and I would be spared the cane so long as by dinner time, I was all smiles again - negotiations and appeals were never part of the process, not that it mattered to me since they never existed in my dictionary and it was only a week ago that I realized it was not unreasonable, and definitely not a crime, for a 16-year-old to negotiate and reason with her parents;

and the list goes on...

But why does it even matter to me what kind of a kid I had been? I'm 35 turning 36 for crying out loud!

It matters because after having lived for 20 years in accordance to the rules (some adhered to and 90% broken, nevertheless, my thoughts and actions were all in some ways reactions to them, and they are what I have been using to analyze everything and everyone around me)dictated by my dad, I didn't know how to live after he died suddenly and tragically shortly before my 21st birthday. He had left me no instruction on how I should think and behave as an adult, so I continued to see the world and live my life based on the same set of rules set by him. The result of not having developed my own rules as I was growing up was a mishmash of moderate success in certain aspects of my adult life and colossal failures in the aspect that matters the most to any human being.

I realized, having come so far in life, that I can't feel what I'm supposed to feel, let alone express them. I can't feel me, and I can't feel others. I can analyze, and I excel at engineering and evoking desired responses from people (I read a lot, love psychology, sociology and anthropology and has a degree in human ecology - what I know about people I've really learned them from books, not from having experienced the full range of human emotions myself or by observing and understanding others) but I generally and genuinely can neither FEEL their feelings nor appreciate their right to feel the way they have chosen to feel. I just KNOW for a fact that THAT’s what someone’s feeling, and my inclination is to immediately – instead of acknowledging and giving it support – attempt to establish if there's anything constructive I should and can do about it.

I realize today that I've got to be the most self-centred person I know - I had expected everyone around me to see the world as I see it... And I would never have come to the realization had it not been for D's devastatingly heartbreaking "you're a 16-year-old trapped in a 35-year-old body" comment and the 5 hours I spent with my therapist.

When my therapist gave me 2 assignments - the first was to recall incidents from my childhood and describe my feelings about them; the second, to start identifying my feelings and EXPRESSING them when interacting with D - I didn't show up for two consecutive sessions because I couldn't do my homework. I thought about them everyday and dreaded the very thought of them by the third day. The only feeling I ever knew and understood and expressed without reservation was rage, only to be told that anger or rage is not even technically a feeling but merely a manifestation of a set of deep-rooted feelings. Kill me, please, someone, anyone.

But I did it. I went back to see AiMei with my completed assignment. And at the end of the session, I was told that I need to start giving myself and others the PERMISSION to FEEL.

I'm stumped again. I can't help but adore AiMei for her ability to keep giving me things I would actually bother pondering on, exactly what I need to distract myself from all the things that I shouldn't be thinking about in my current state anyway.

But I'm exhausted. I don't know if I have the stamina to reorganize my very messy life and I don't know if I can go on pretending that I can totally live with all the hurt I've caused others. For the longest time, I've convinced myself that as long as I'm willing to bear the consequences of my own actions, I am free to do whatever I decide to do. Never once had it occurred to me that my actions could cause people around me irreparable emotional damages. Because until recently, I've never felt - my heart was an uncharted territory - it was virtually impossible to break me because I always recovered from pain in matter of days. So I thought. And I expected the general population to be like me. I couldn't have been more serious whenever I said that "I have no choice but to get out of depression - I have a short attention span".

But now I can feel. I can feel a little of what I should be feeling, and a hell lot of what others have felt. Justice is being served at last. I'm being punished. The feelings of my victims are so overwhelming I feel like I'm lugging 200 tonnes of weight with me everywhere I go.

A small price to pay for self-knowledge, I suppose.


She (From Jules in Jumbles 12 Jun 08)
I can't help but noticed how much I'm talking to myself these days. And I don't mean talking aloud to myself or talking to my mirror image. I talk to a copy of me in my head. It's as if there's another me living in me. The one that's been locked up, suppressed and muted since I don't even know when.

I know I'm not crazy. But it's a fact that I keep seeing her. She crouches by a dark corner somewhere in my head and never once spoke to me. She's so little and so frail that I can't bear to scream at her when she refuses to even acknowledge me. I know that we're not on the same wavelength and she's too immature to understand or respond to me but I desperately need to connect with her.

I desperately want to be confined again at CDC. The one month that I was left in total solitude was by far the happiest days of my life. I guess it was during that period that she was allowed to come out from hiding, and she was happy.


Mumbo Jumbo
Most of those who have come to know me really well would tell me that I should start writing a memoir. To them, my life has been a drama and most people don't want to be me. To begin with, most people on this safe little island wouldn't have chosen to take the path that I've taken or made the choices that I had made that landed me in one trouble after another. The bulk of those I know live a peaceful, uneventful life, and they seem contented that THAT is the way to live.

As for me, the time for me to want to swap places with them has not come. Maybe 30 years down the road, when I look back, I might regret all the wrong turns and pointless detours I’ve made in my life. But for now, I’m contented with what I’ve been given – the people I love and the good and bad things that happened -, and I accept who I am today as a result of the decisions I’ve made in response to each event that unfolded in my life.

That said, what happened in the past few months did make me sit up and reflect on many things I have done which I can’t say I’m proud of.

For months I berated myself and allowed others to feed me with information on what makes a decent lady. For the first time in my life, I wished I had conformed – not that I’ve been making it a point to be different.

But as I slowly picked up my shattered ego, I learnt that I don’t have to fit into moulds cut out for people who can’t live unless they are accepted and loved by all. I began to appreciate that there’s nothing fatal about not being the kind of woman that appeals to the general male population.

And this is the part that I’m most glad about: in the process of dealing with the aftermath of D-day, I was forced to confront one of my greatest fears – that of having to acknowledge that I’ve caused others hurt.

It was a necessary step in my quest to find myself.

Because whenever I’m lost, I’m destructive. The whole time that I struggled to fit in, I was bitterly angry that the expectation of people and the society I lived in necessitated such an endeavour on my part. I didn’t know who I was, why I reacted to things differently from many people around me, and why it was so difficult for the person who mattered to me the most to love me for who I was, whoever he had figured me out to be. And when I did make an effort to be “perfect”, I became angrier, and defensive, whenever I felt I’ve fallen short. The way I’ve chosen to cope with a perpetually disappointed D – who had by then built a fortress to shut me out - was extremely vindictive: I gave what I thought was everything he wanted from me to someone else.

It was not pleasant at all to play someone that I wasn’t. And the ending of the story sucks big time.

To the person that’s crossed my path at the wrong time - I can only say I’m sorry. Everything that I did, I’ve done it because of D and for D. I needed an escape while staying put in D’s life. Had I been a stronger person, someone who at least knew who she was, and was comfortable in her own skin, things between D and me would have turned out very differently and I wouldn’t have needed an outlet.

I’m no longer striving to make up for what I’ve done. I have accepted that such is a time when not doing anything is probably the kindest thing I can do for the person whose life I nearly destroyed because of my wilfulness.

And today I’ve come to terms with the fact that disappointment with people and things is inevitable and in fact a norm among the human race, and hence I should feel no less of myself whenever others feel let down by me.

My only responsibility now is D.

Pilot said this to me one day when we were on the topic of “should”s and “should-not”s: “There’s no such thing as a universal rule (when interacting with people); there’s only your rule, or my rule. As far as I’m concerned, I’ll only feel bad if I break my own rules.”

Pilot never fails to amaze Seabloke and me.


Hate to be loved (From Jules In Jumbles - 28 May 08)
I used to think my mother hated me. Today, I still don't think she loves me. I knew she hated me when she was asked to give up her business (which was not doing well anyways, because running a profitable business is really not her forte) to stay home with me as I prepared for my "O" Levels exams. Each day she'd tell me how she hated having to make sacrifices for me. Most of the time, I would ignore her and make serious attempts to focus on my studies. It got to a point where my dad had to send me to my granny's so I could get the peace I needed to concentrate on preparing for my exams.

It never occurred to me back then that her blaming me for her lost freedom would have profoundly affected the way I handled relationships as an adult.

Right after "O" levels was over, I was sent to Canada alone to further my education. Life was a bliss. At 16, I was finally free - free from the tight chains of my dad's control and free from the constant yearnings for a cold mother's love. For a good 5 years, I never once thought about home and I wasn't lonely. I had many friends and I always had a boyfriend. I was always good to my friends, expecting very little from them, and yet always making a point to be there for them when they needed me.

My boyfriends were not so fortunate. Looking back, I realized I demanded the world from them. I was able to convince them, without having to put it across explicitly, that to make me happy, they would have to make huge sacrifices. Yet, when they did, I would immediately lose whatever feelings I had for them and would make a dash for the exit in lightning speed.

This happened to whoever that summoned enough courage to pursue a person as difficult as I was. I desperately needed to be shown love and to be shown that I was worth the sacrifices that one had to make to be with me. Yet I was repelled and completely disgusted by ardent suitors who seemed happy just breathing the same air that I was breathing. For a long time, I thought nothing of the disturbing trend. People around me thought I simply loved toying with men's feelings. I never bothered to defend myself because I knew that that wasn't my intention. But whatever good intention I started with, the outcome was always bad and someone would always end up being hurt by my sudden retreat, at precisely the point when they were the sweetest to me and thought I was "the one" for them.

This has caused me to wonder if the reason that I'm still with D today after 15 years is that I never ever got what I wanted from him. D's one of the most brilliant and ambitious persons I know, but he always seemed so distant. I admire and adore him and always wish he would one day be sweet to me like the others had been. And just like the way I waited for my mother to give me a warm, loving hug (all I really hoped for as a child and then as an adolescent, was just a gentle touch on the forehead by her, and I wanted it so badly I began to get recurring dreams of her doing that!), I waited - albeit impatiently - for D to show me some fiery passion, and some signs that I'm all that he's living for...

My life has always been filled with dramas - and I had no one or circumstances to blame but myself - and I've gotten so accustomed to them I never really bothered to learn anything from them.

But what happened 3 months ago was traumatic enough to stop me in my path and make me ponder on the things that I've done and the effects they've had on people around me. I decided at last that it was time that I seek professional help.

One of the many reasons that I think AiMei is amazing is that she's so far the only person who could convince me to go into the very place that I've made a point never to get anywhere near - my heart. Upon her demand (well, it's an assignment...), I gave visiting my heart a shot and took a peek inside for some signs of life. I survived to attend the second session.

After the first session, I was asked to revisit episodes in my childhood - something I used to condemn counselors for doing to their clients (to me, bad memories are best left where they belong - in the "Delete" folder, for permanent obliteration upon our logging off from life) - but something about AiMei made me trust her and I've since the first session been retrieving from my "Delete" folder memories of events and incidences from my childhood days.

Something that kept coming to mind today was the scene of my mother blaming me for her being stuck with me. She felt like she was sentenced. "Looking" at the scene as an outsider now, I feel terrible for her. She was stuck with someone she couldn't love, and probably didn't want and didn't need. I wondered if this had somehow at some point in my life caused me to draw the conclusion that if someone would willingly give me his time, his energy, his entire world, his life if need be, then that would be proof that he indeed loves me. If it did cause an impact in the way I evaluated my relationships in my adult life, I sure as hell was not conscious of it.

So why did I feel like bolting whenever someone offered his full devotion and entire being, even if he was someone I was initially attracted to?

I begin to look for answers in my mother. I imagine that I acceded to her request to meet up and catch up, and, she hugged me.

That very thought of her making physical contact with me, and her attempt to connect with me emotionally, immediately sends chills down my spine. Not only am I NOT looking forward to her affection, I detest it and am freaking afraid that I would be obliged to reciprocate!

Now I'm truly troubled. Have I been projecting these feelings onto those that I considered capable of breaking my heart, the same feelings that sent me fleeing once the object of my affection started giving me more than what I thought I deserved?

Or is there a remote possibility that I've simply gotten comfortable with just LONGING to be loved and cherished? Could it be the case that whenever someone came into my life to fulfill that yearning, it always left me feeling as if I no longer had what was to me the most powerful force that drives me to better myself everyday? And hence my immediate reaction was always utter disgust; and natural inclination, to immediately expunge the unfortunate guy from my life. Is that really who I have become?

Goodness gracious, I do have a malfunction.

But wait, Seabloke loves me and shows me her affection freely and yet I adore her and totally enjoy being with her! It's baffling. But I do have some sort of a theory: if I were to look at my life as some kind of cruel experiment that comes with variables of all kinds, Seabloke has certainly been the only constant in it. She was always the protective sister who gave up her tidbit, her money, her time, her energy, basically, her everything, to make her siblings happy. She is still today the same affectionate, albeit a little bossy, sister that she was when we were all children.

While my dad loved me and gave my life meaning and direction, he left abruptly, without warning. But even my dad had expectation of me. The only other person I feel who truly loves me, and is still in my life today, is Seabloke. And she never judges me. We always joke about how we lament having no choice over who we have as siblings. But really, given a choice, I would pick Seabloke over and over again. In fact, I won't want anyone else as my baby sister. I don't and I won't.

Land loves Sea!!

Currency Pairs (Correlating and Inversely Moving)

Correlating Pairs:

EUR/USD and GBP/USD
EUR/USD and NZD/USD
USD/CHF and USD/JPY
AUD/USD and GBP/USD
AUD/USD and EUR/USD

Inversely Moving Pairs:

EUR/USD and USD/CHF
GBP/USD and USD/JPY
GBP/USD and USD/CHF
AUD/USD and USD/CAD
AUD/USD and USD/JPY

Commodity Pairs - AUD/USD, NZD/USD, CAD/USD

AUD/USD

  • Australia: 3rd largest exporter of gold
  • AUD/USD: 80% positive correlation with gold

NZD/USD

  • NZD: Positive correlation with health of the Australian economy.
  • NZD/USD: 88 % correlation with gold (stronger than that of AUD/USD)
USD/CAD
  • Canada: Largest exporter of oil to US
  • USD/CAD: 81% positive correlation with price of oil; rising oil benefits USD/CAD the most of all the FX pairs


Saturday, October 4, 2008

To Paper Trade or Not To Paper Trade

Comment from Common Sense:

i'm sure people have told you that FAKE money is 100% different than trading real. Remember, if your expenses are 2k a month for rent and food, you really need a trading account of about 50k. If not, your profits will have to be extra-ordinary -- which is why futures traders take crazy risk, leverage, and usually blow up. You need 2 winning days every 3 to make it. You cannot have more than 1 really bad day every 2 months. I made 10k a day on FAKE money, it's soo unrealistic that it's 100% useless. You'll see. Fake money, right now i'm short 100 contracts. If i get stopped out I will buy 200 contracts, and it's all dumb.

Try to fund an account and trade 1 contract and then see how it is with real emotions at work. If you take too long, trade too quick, execute wrong, overtrade, anything...ur emotions change and it's drastic. I've been trading for 15 years, trust me, I have a clue. I just think paper trading really builds horrible habits. My 2 cents.

I want to thank Common Sense for sharing his views and experience regarding paper trading.

Over the past 2 weeks that I've switched to paper trading, I've been receiving comments from traders who are for paper trading, and those who see little to no value in paper trading. Both groups spoke from personal experiences and I respect what they have to say about the pros and cons of paper trading.

Personally, I think paper trading is useful to the extent that it is used for its intended purposes:

1) For identification of the idiosyncrasies of each instrument that the trader is exploring: how it behaves (NOT how I behave) under different market conditions, how it behaves at different time of the day, what it reacts to most of the time, etc, etc

2) For finding out the right size to trade for each instrument - and this of course is directly linked to how much the trader can afford to lose should he lose. For me, I take into account how much I want to achieve too.

For ER2, 1 to 2 contracts is good enough for me, as 1 point gain and lost is $100. Besides, ER2 has an average daily range of 20 - 30 points, and is highly volatile .

For NQ, a 1-point gain is $20, its range is not as consistent as that of ER2, and in my opinion, is not as volatile as ER2. If I trade 1 or 2 contracts, that WILL make me OVERTRADE.

That said, I noticed that 10 contracts is not ideal, for reasons that I will reveal only after I've accumulated enough data from my paper trades.

I do have a funded account, and was trading ER2 with it before ER2 moved to ICE. I'm just not using it now coz I'm not ready to pay the market for a lesson on trading psychology YET.

To go right into the market trading something that I don't know intimately is like going to war without a strategy, without my ammunitions and without any form of protection. It's no different from just standing in the open and inviting my enemies to put a thousand bullets into my body.

Soldiers are not sent to the battlefield without having gone through trainings and mock exercises.

Students have mock exams and tests before the real thing.

Citizens go through drills to prepare them for terrorist attacks.

Stage performers have rehearsals before the big day - American Idols' finalists rehearse God knows how many times before they step before millions of audiences.

In all of these examples cited, the "FAKE" is supposed to be treated as if it is "REAL". The only thing that cannot be tested and practised is really the "emotions" related to such experiences.

My brother is a pilot. Before he was allowed to fly a real plane, he clocked many hours of flying in "fake planes" - don't ask me what those gadgets were, I just know they are planes that don't actually take off.

Then comes the part where he flies a real plane with a trainer or first officer beside him. God bless them should my brother decide to do something stupid - coz accident can and do happen in trainings.

He's now a qualified first officer who can fly alone, but of course we know that the standard practice in commercial airline industry is that no pilot flies alone. My point is, no matter how good my brother and his co-pilot is, the risk of the plane coming down is always there.

But had he not gone through stage 1 and 2, "risk" is no longer relevant.

We will be looking at "certainty" - the certainty that the plane will surely come down, if it ever was able to go up in the first place.

I'm between stage 1 and 2.

I'm in stage 1 when I know nothing about an instrument.

I was in stage 2 when I was trading the ER2.

In 15 years' time, I might progress to stage 3. And I do believe that there are traders in stage 3 - many in fact - those who know their planes, are responsible enough to coordinate with the maintenance crew to ensure that the plane is safe for take-off, and have all the contingency plans at their finger tips. Should accidents happen, they would know how to troubleshoot so they don't have to make an emergency landing, and if they really have to land their planes, they would have the experience, knowledge and skills to land with as few casualties as possible.

According to Pilot, he has seen so many things that were wrong with the plane he was supposed to fly for each assignment that if he were to give me all the details, I would never take another flight.

Before each take-off, it's his job to fix as many problems as he can. He sometimes have to take off with some MINOR problems. His goal is of course always to land the plane safely.

But he started off with SIMULATED flying.

I treat all my simulated trades as if they were real.

If I won't ever trade 10 contracts, I will not paper trade 10 contracts. I am considering trading 10 contracts, and it's through simulated trading that I will find out if it is the right contract size for me. If it's not, I will adjust it. I do not want to find out it's wrong for me with REAL MONEY.

D can be my witness: I DO sweat even in simulated trading, coz I know that if I'm losing that much in simulated trading, I WILL lose that much in real trading.

Friday, October 3, 2008

NQ (Simulated) Trade 10/3

Today's not like any other day.

I went long on NQ.

Right after my entry, NQ did a major correction on 1-min chart.

At the same time, D commented that NDX is diverging from the other indices. Baffled, he went to the list of NDX components to see what they are doing.

Apple was down 2-3% - probably the reason that NDX dropped drastically.

Almost immediately after D found out what was moving NDX, CNBC reported that it was rumored that Steve Jobs had a heart attack, but that companies like Yahoo and Microsoft (Microsoft's Xbox is a smashing hit) were doing great.

I switched to my 30-min chart instead.

Decided that it's time to switch to a higher time-frame to filter out the noise (yes, rumor of one company's CEO having a heart condition in a sector that's generally doing well today is noise).

D and I went out for a smoke.

My unrealized LOSS was at $2000.

D had no idea I went long, coz I hardly take a long entry.

I told him about my entry when we were taking our breather. When asked, he replied he hadn't a clue why a bear like me would be bullish today.

I said because everyone's just too bearish. And on briefing.com, I've seen on a few occasions empty rows under sectors that had a gain.

Most importantly, you have a country that has been printing money like nobody's business wanting the market to go up by hook or by crook in an election year.

I have reason to believe that there'll be enough speculators betting on the long side to support an uptrend.

The bailout sequel is but icing on the cake.

Econ data (job data) was bearish AS USUAL - so routined that if the market were to pay any attention to it, it's probably only coz there's absolutely nothing else exciting happening, which is not what we are seeing these days. The market has been totally mesmeric!

Besides, the market LEADS the economy.

Yes, as a scalper, I am supposed to pay attention to news.

That's why I switched to a higher timeframe to get out of my scalping mode. Coz my conviction is strong, and if I can't trade my conviction on a 1min chart, it makes sense to me to zoom out and look at a chart that tells a bigger picture.

And what I saw on my 30-min chart was a double bottom (Sep 29 and Oct 2).

So, I came back from my break and NQ was climbing.

It was going towards my targeted 1550.

I exited before that, coz 1550 was just an arbitrary number that I chose below 1552 (a key resistance on my 30 min chart).

If it's arbitrary, I have no reason to insist on staying til NQ hit that figure.

I was looking at profit exceeding $1400, and NQ was not exactly going up all the way without retracing.

I decided to take what was definitely a decent profit, and close the trade, coz I was tired.

It's been a long day.

Al's not getting better - I'm hearing a new organ that's not working in perfect condition every time I visit - and his stay at the clinic has been extended.

Granny fell this morning - she suffered a massive stroke. I signed a form authorizing the hospital to administer a treatment that has its risks but was necessary to save her life. Was told an hour before market open that she's not likely to make it coz the entire right side of her brain has been damaged.

I'm tired from running around and tired from asking myself ceaselessly if I've made lousy decisions whenever it comes to life. Have I been getting my priorities all wrong? Why did i not visit the person who came to my rescue when I was penniless, alone, and owed a whole year's college fees in a foreign country as often as she had always loved me to?

Seabloke's much stronger. She was asking if the wake could be held at my place. And she said it had to be held Buddhist-styled with all the chantings that never fail to haunt me.

I find comfort in my charts, and a D that strokes my head and understands that my granny does matter to me.

Trade


Realized P&L


NQ 30min

FX (Simulated) Trade 10/2 - Close Positions



A loss of nearly $500 was seen before I turned in at around 2pm EST.

Closed positions. Haven't the chance to study the charts. Will be with Al at clinic for the whole day today.