Thursday, June 4, 2009

About Comments & Emails

I want to apologize to all who have emailed me and dropped comments here for not having responded to you in a timely manner - once I'm back trading 12 - 16 hours, my eyes are just on my charts, even when I've no open positions. I don't multi-task very well (explains the unwashed laundry), but I'm learning.

Cory, thanks for the link - I don't have to do any test to know I'm a scalper :-) But I will check it out. And thanks for the info on Open Cry. I believe my data feed is from TransAct or something like that. For now, Sierra is still ok - it's different from the other charts but I've gotten so used to it that it doesn't really affect me. After all, I'm used to living in a world of my own! LOL!! But, thanks, Buddy! You're starting to become our virtual library :-)

HPT, good to see you here :-) Those P&L & trade log charts are an easy source of reference when I do my reviews. This is my one-stop station for getting everything I need to do my AARs. I've been doing this for, let me see...coming to a year now? During this time, posting losses has helped alleviate the "ego" issue - so that's a bonus :-)

Below's another one of my reply to an email that I'm posting here for my own referencing, coz the topics in question (profit-taking & globex-hours trading) are actually issues I'm struggling with myself (talk about not practicing what one preaches).


Sorry for my late reply.

Regarding globex-hour trades - slippage is indeed an issue, but it affects scalpers more. If you're trading these hours, it's better to go in with small sizes and hold your trades using S/R to determine your exits. These quieter hours are actually more volatile - spikes are common. But I don't think it's market makers that are hitting stops - anyone who has contracts large enough to move the market can take out stops on both sides (longs and shorts), since volume is generally very low compared to the US sessions. If you're thinking of focusing on globex sessions, a better instrument to trade is actually the russell 2000 (TF). The chart's ugly, but you don't need individual candles/bars to trade - price actions are smooth actually and all you need to watch out for are where key supports and resistances are.

Regarding profit taking - I always believe that you have to choose one - you either always just go for scalping profits (in which case, I would concentrate on the US trading session), or swing profits (this you can do both during globex hours and US sesssions). Once you've decided to take only, say, 3 to 5, or even 8 ticks, then you'll have to accept that the move might go many more points in your direction before turning around. Whenever you regret not having let profits run, and you start to hold your trades, you'll almost always find yourself in a choppy trends where moves don't go more than 2 points before they take out your stops. For those who are consistently just going for swing profits, they have those monstrous trending days where their profits can more than make up their many small losses (on choppy days where they get stopped out after an initially profitable position becomes a losing one). That's why it's important to stick to just ONE style. Nobody ever knows 100% if the day's going to be trending, ranging or choppy. Everyone can see it in hindsight. People like Dr Brett can give you some guidelines on how to see if the day's going to trend, but really, no one knows for sure. A ranging day can always turn into a trending one, and a trending globex session can turn choppy after US market opens either due to news or other factors. If you consistently take only scalp profits, you'll feel a little bitter on trending days when you see a move go 10 or 20 points and you had walked away with only 1 or 2. You'll have to learn to live with that. And it isn't difficult coz trending days are NOT the norm. It happens a few times a month - and these are the days that give the non-scalping daytraders the profits they need to cover their daily losses. But they can only hit those homeruns if they are there when it happens (meaning, they are holding their trades for home run profits - they are positioned for those profits at all times - so that when it happens, they are there).

For scalpers, depending on your entry strategy, 3 ticks to 8 ticks profit is doable. For 8 ticks profit, you'll just have to be more selective with your entries - on a ranging day, it means buying from the base of an established channel or selling at the top of an established channel. If you have 2 peaks and 2 lows, you can already draw your channel. Which means you buy or sell on the 3rd touch of the channel. The channels don't have to be parallel - they can be broadening. For triangles, breakout can happen both on top and below and usually they will go up and down trapping both buyers and sellers first, so I generally don't buy breakouts. Whenever price has touched a downtrend line twice, for instance, I'll take long trades when price has gone way beneath the trendline, but moving up, and use the trendline to time my exit. That means I'm NOT expecting a breakout on the 3rd time price hits trendline. For sellers, on a ranging day in particular, they can start watching for signal to sell when price touched that trendline for a 3rd time (expect price to actually breakout, but fall right back below the line after breaking out). On strong trending days however, price DO breakout of trendlines usually on the 2nd touch.

Hope the above helps. Yes I've been to your blog...not frequently, coz I don't usually go around checking out what everyone's doing...I'm having a hard time keeping up with those on my blogroll :-) I tend to get a little crazy and shut myself out totally when I'm focusing on something :-) But I'll make sure to drop by yours more frequently :-)

Let me know if you need more info on globex hours.

2 comments:

HPT said...

Good analysis on globex and trend trading.

Jules said...

Hello, HPT :-) Coming from you that's music to my ears. Thank you :-)