Stymie

I love Solfest.

I got out of bed this morning feeling like I wanna kill someone, but Solfest's comments really cracked me up.

Something happened, and I'm now more frustrated than I've ever been.

I didn't think my life's going to turn out this way - aimless and completely meaningless.

I have a tendency to think too much - baffling, since I really hate using my brain.

I'm taking a very long break from public blogging to detox.

I Hate Festivals & Trading Holidays

CL 2min

A bout of depression is good for the soul, I heard.

I hope it's true.

There's something about festive occasions that depresses me. I'm glad Chinese New Year and US trading holidays are over.

A good friend visited on Tuesday, and I showed him how I trade crude. After a 5-hour tutorial, he went home to trade that monstrous uptrend, and took USD 750 from the market (he has been trading forex on and off for a few years, and has almost never touched futures, let alone crazy crude).

That's about the only thing (other than Seabloke and Gremlins) that made me happy in the past week.

Was at Seabloke's on the 2nd day of Chinese New Year, and we had a lot of fun playing with her MAC. Twins were adorable. "We don't love you, Yee Yee", they said, "We love you VERY MUCH!". I'm blaming Sea for my not wanting to have a baby. I'm afraid that mine will turn out just NORMAL.

I'm still depressed. I don't know why, but I'm not going to dwell on it. I'll just continue to pop my happy pills.

Sage,
Of course I want the job. Isn't it obvious I was trying very hard to stand out? :-D

Crazy Everything Day

Waiting patiently for the day when everything stops chopping around!

No time for charts. Looking for my mascara again! I'm sure Keish (my vain cat) hid it, AGAIN.

Update

About the job that I turned down - the director called and spoke with me for a half hour. I'm sold. It turns out that I'll be vetting reports and not writing them from scratch. There will be steering committees for each aspect of the project, and representatives from each department to coordinate trainings and meetings. Bottom line is, I CAN STILL TRADE IN THE EVENING (when US market opens). I'll be meeting the highest management tomorrow, and we'll see how things go from there.

As far as trading goes, there's nothing much going on. I'm distracted, and also in the midst of sorting out what type of trades I want to take (I'm learning not to feel bad about not catching all the big moves in the symbols I trade).

This is from yesterday:

Life's Interruptions

I'm taking a break. There's too much going on (chinese new year celebration that I hate, job interviews to attend, and some personal matters to settle), and I'm losing focus.

Sometimes, sad movies make me cry.

I Love Fridays

GC 10min

Outlined in pink are places where I sold. Yes, I am stubborn. I was prepared to be stopped out on every trade I took. I simply MUST have my S1 target TODAY.

D's still marveling at my 10% winning ratio:

QM and ZS

ZS 200-tick

For the week:

I'm too tired to figure out what ZS is doing.

The only thing on my mind now is my bed.

Mini Crude

QM 100-tick

Got home just in time for market open. It's been a very long day; everything turns out fine, except for one problem: hours. I would have to give up trading altogether.

Above is the first proper trade I took this whole week. Well, at least I managed it the way I did when I had my heart and soul and my entire being in trading.

Time-Out

Definitely reliving January's nightmare - bad timing, generous stop-loss, and the constant feeling of wanting to just lift my stops and walk away.

I don't trade pullbacks, so when something's trending higher/lower, the wise thing for me to do would be to stay on the sideline until the trend exhausts itself. Right now, it looks as if everything I have attempted to short is on a healthy uptrend. So, it's a waiting game for me from here on out.

I'm still not crying. Not over my trades.

But if I don't find my mascara before my job interview, I will most definitely cry.

Sick of Break

The organization that I most want to work with replied.

Meeting date set for this week.

I am beyond elated - after 2 years of hiatus, I'm starting to seriously miss the morning and evening traffic.

If only we could skip the whole interview thing...

Nat Gas Trade 2/1 (Mon) - After Action Review

NG 10min

What I did wrong:

1) Attempting to fade a more-than-10-point gap

2) Failing to get out at the start of the pit trading session - on a strong up day, trapped-out buyers are going to buy on a dip at market open. Where my profit hit USD 200 and made a U-turn - that was the perfect pullback to buy

3) Attempting to short something that's reached R1 way before the pit session started, which is really not prudent - the likelihood of price hitting R2 - R4 subsequently is high

4) Ignoring my FEELING about taking a 4% risk on a single trade (knowing that my stop was going to get hit paralyzed me - while price action clearly indicated it would be wise to scratch my trade, my fingers had not co-operated with my brain)

5) Attempting to fade a strong trending OIL simultaneously - it was clearly distraction that I didn't need

What I did right:

1) Respecting my stops - even though the stop for natural gas was PAINFULLY wide

2) Not attempting to short NG at a higher point after lunch - on days like yesterday, price is likely to go sideways after buying stops - MACD can continue to show divergence after divergence, price will simply not plunge

Additional Observation:

1) I have a tendency to short a strong uptrend on the first trading day of each month

2) NG is crazy - I realize that now (I've found some of my sanity)

Gagged

NG 2min

I had placed my stop at above R2. After seeing a USD 200 profit, to have to watch price make a U-turn for R2 was just plain torture.

I have yet to make out if it's just my style, or a bad habit I should consider breaking - I tend to be overly aggressive/ambitious in the beginning of the month, get all bruised, and spend the rest of the month pretending that I have amnesia so that I can continue to trade.

I'm not sure that I want to switch mode like I did last month after taking a substantial loss in the first 2 (3??) days of trading. The thing about trading in the conservative mode ie. constantly moving stops to protect gains, is that I'd have to give up the kind of profits that come with my adhering to my exit rule.

Objective for the trade above was a level slightly below pivot - a USD 1500 profit target.

I'll probably be spending the next few days in a daze.

In green box are today's trades:

LW, Velazquez and Mark Douglas on "Are You REALLY a Risk Taker?"

An easier-to-understand version of this Englishman's post:
_________________________________________________

Are You Really a Risk Taker?

By Gabe Velazquez, Online Trading Academy E-minis Instructor*
Posted: Jan 29, 2010

Very early on, on the first day of any class I teach, I write on the white board these two words in big bold print: EMBRACE RISK. It would seem that everyone looking to get involved in trading, whether on a full-time or part-time basis, understands that trading is a risky business, so embracing risk would be a given. When asked, most of the students will acknowledge that they are indeed willing to assume some degree of risk – some more than others – and that's typical.

However, when we begin discussing technical analysis and trading set-ups, those same students who assured me that they didn't have a problem taking losses begin asking questions such as, "How do I know if it will hold that support or resistance level?" or "What if it doesn't hold?".

Another one of my favorites is "What do you use for confirmation?" to which I reply, "I put on the trade, and let it work or fail. Confirmation is the trade working.” This answer always seems to elicit a puzzled look.

Now, this last statement flies in the face of what many traders have been conditioned to look for. Many new traders seek out multiple technical indicators, in essence, searching for multiple layers of assurances for their trades. The problem I see with this that, by the time all the stars line up (so to speak), these traders are usually entering the trade too late, thereby increasing their risk of missing the trade entirely.

This inability to pull the trigger when an opportunity presents itself is a direct result of the self-doubt generated when one does not TRULY ACCEPT THE RISK on the trade (I'll expound on this later).

What I also find interesting is that, when we start the first trading segment of the class, I begin to hear the sighs of vexation every time a student has a stop triggered (takes a loss). It's as though this student just received a body blow. Some students even begin to take every loss personally. With others, I have to suggest that they step back and take a deep breath before they continue their trading because they've become overwrought and are no longer thinking logically.

It's at this juncture when students really find out how they react to losses emotionally. Changing their attitudes about losing and being right is truly where the work begins.

Let's delve into this notion of unconditionally accepting losses as part of trading, which in my humble opinion is one of the biggest obstacles for most traders to overcome. It goes without saying that we never put on a trade expecting to lose, and most traders do place a stop loss just in case the trade doesn't work.

Yet, when price approaches the stop level, the natural tendency for the non-professional trader is to move the stop away from the market in hopes that the market will recover. The next adjustment in his or her avoidance of losing is to pull the stop altogether, or worse, double-down on the position.

Moreover, when a trade initially goes against the non-professional, and then recovers to a break-even level, this trader will close out the trade, relieved that he or she didn't lose money. Invariably though, as soon as this trader exits at break-even, the trade goes on to do exactly as analysis had suggested – causing the trader to be immensely irritated.

Regrettably, this begins a vicious cycle that can only be broken by gaining confidence in a methodology and coming to terms with risk acceptance. So you see: Placing a hard stop does not necessarily endow a trader with the "risk taker" attribute.

In class, I encourage students to think in terms of risk versus reward, as well as probabilities. I won't go into risk / reward now, but, rather, I will discuss the odds game.

Much like a professional poker player, a trader must find an edge. A poker player works at memorizing what card pairings offer the highest chances for him or her to win. The poker player understands that, aside from the initial ante, he or she only presses a bet when the odds are in his or her favor.

What's more, those who play poker professionally understand that they may not win for a series of hands, but, if they play enough hands, their edge will win out over time. Similarly, the professional trader will put on his or her trades in a systematic fashion without fear of losing or being wrong. He or she sees every trade as only one in a series of hundreds or possibly thousands in a trading career.

I understand this is much easier said than done, and it will probably take some work to modify your thinking. On the other hand, those traders who can't get over their fear of losing or being wrong will always operate in an environment full of stress and anxiety. Sure, they'll have their ups and downs, but at some point, trading will become drudgery and not much fun.

Then again, for those of you who truly want to take your trading to the next level and experience the satisfaction of seeing a rising equity curve over months and years, next time you spot an opportunity, predefine your risk, put on the trade without hesitation or doubt and let the chips fall where they may.

After all, what's the worst that can happen? You might lose a few bucks, or perhaps the trade works and you attain your profit target. If your profits exceed your losses by a margin of better than three-to-one and you have an edge (higher than 50 / 50 probability), your chances of being consistently profitable will vastly improve. That is, provided you accept the outcome on every trade. In other words, you must truly embrace risk in order to become a professional trader.

_________________________________________________

Audio lectures on the subject matter by our all-time favorite:

http://club.ino.com/trading/2008/07/saturday-seminars-the-dynamics-of-a-traders-mindset/

http://club.ino.com/trading/2008/10/saturday-seminars-finding-maintaining-your-personal-trading/

This Blog Is For Stored Memories

My active blog is at http://juzjules.blogspot.com/

Trading Courses & Coaches II

I visited Michael in late August 2009, and took some pictures of him and his class. The pictures were meant to go with this post here. I couldn't upload them on my laptop then. Towards the end of 2009, D built me a brand new pc, and helped me transfer and upload all the data from my laptop and mobile onto the new machine.

It took me 3 months to figure out where everything went...

Anyway, I recovered the pictures. You can find them at the end of this post.

Local Trading Coaches

If you live in Singapore, and are looking for an affordable and quality basic trading course, go to Michael. He has traded for more than 30 years, and knows way more about the market than many local over-hyped and overpriced trainers.

Michael is no showman; he merely shows you exactly how he trades.

Michael is calm, and he will teach you how to be calm in trading.

I've not spoken with Michael since late last year, but I'm sure he's still charging less than half of what the most expensive trainers are charging here.

Michael is a trader ie. his trading profits are his main source of income. Teaching is his hobby (I'm not kidding - Michael loves people).

So here's someone who is with the market EVERYDAY, is immensely wise and calm - and he likes to share with you how he does things like turn USD 3k into USD 11k in 30 days. You spend 5 months with him, and he charges you a 4-figure amount that doesn't start with the digit "2". If you know of any deal sweeter than this, I'll like to know (If you are reading this via my Facebook account, you can always drop me a message).

For those considering an online course, Austin is a great choice.

Again, I am NOT Michael and Austin's affiliate ie. I do NOT get a referral fee if you sign up. I'm recommending them because I like what they do, and I like them for who they are: persons with integrity.

There are profitable TRAINERS, and there are profitable TRADERS. You want to learn about trading from the latter.

And here's Michael:

This One Really Cheers Me Up

My chat buddy sent me this (original source unknown):


J is a 50-year-old Caucasian American. He lives in C.A, has long curly hair, and looks extremely cool and smart (J is SUPER smart)

Go look for him.

>:-)

Nat Gas Chop

NG 2min

2 hours of chop is just too much for me on a Friday. Closed position and not going to care if it plunges later.

In green box is the trade:
PnL for this week:
Balance to-date:

Natural Gas

NG 2min

NG 2min Zoom Out

Am still having my migraine. It's just that time of the year that I keep getting attacks.

Trade taken is a planned trade. There was an accident of sort though - I forgot to place my target. Price punched right through it and bounced back up in less than a millisecond. I'll probably never stop making blunders like that. Like I said, I need a new brain.

I was hesitant to post the trade coz I had taken a fair bit of risk. I've gotten quite annoyed with being shaken out of a good position just minutes prior to data release. So I stayed, and lifted my stop. I have a contingency, and I know the NG - its range, where it tends to go after testing pivots, and its jerky movements.

If you don't know NG, DON'T trade it before the release of nat gas data report, not even with a stop. Price will trade right through your stop and you'll find yourself getting out at a place you don't want to get out at.

In retrospect, I really should have just gotten out with my USD 200 profit before data release. It was a semi-sweet revenge, and I'm no longer interested in going for such trades (unless there is a nice setup - today's was just bumpy before the report came out). I was actually aiming for an S2 target - that's a USD 1000 move. NG's movement before data release told me that it probably wouldn't make it there. Anyway, even a USD 700 potential profit (S1 target) is not worth the risk. There are many similar opportunities in this and other trending instruments on safer days.

In green box is the NG trade:

FED Day Makes Me Sick

NG 2min

I think I'm getting a migraine attack. Wrong stop is a clear sign that I should stay away for the rest of the session.

In green box are today's trade: