Showing posts with label CL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CL. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Crude Oil Trade - Tues, Mar 9

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

An interesting email from someone I'll call "The Banker":

Hi Jules,

Thanks for your kind words! I am glad to read on your blog the search for who you are is over.

Trading the US time zone from Singapore did pose significant struggles in my social life initially. Over time, I'm glad my family and friends gradually accepted my warped hours. I was very much a hermit. I could spend several weeks at home without stepping out of my house at all. However, I found that was unhealthy and abandoned my hermit lifestyle.

And yes, I was swing trading during the period when I was very successful. The secret to my method is, there is none! If any, it would be my firm belief that the market is bigger than any one of us. Very few can influence prices significantly, so we must adapt to the market instead of "forcing" (or hoping) the market to move according to our analysis.

A very simple analogy could be seen in, say, Formula One racing. All circuits have twists and bends. Can the driver simply step on the pedal full throttle all the time? Likewise, the market has trending and consolidation phases which demand different methods. So the trader that can exercise the greatest discipline to not trade in "unfamiliar territories" wins! Correspondingly, he'll need courage and swift action to take positions when he identifies potential moves.

Ironically, I tried teaching my trading method free to some very learned friends. None succeeded, even though I held nothing back. After this episode, I have to agree that the trading method is the least important factor to anyone's success in trading. I subsequently found so many methods actually work. The real questions are, can our emotions handle the roller coaster? Do we have enough faith in the methods to let them work? Do we have the discipline to adhere to the plans? The book by Mike Douglas "Trading in the Zone" answered all these questions the best.

I sat on this note coz I really haven't been in the mood to blog. But I like what The Banker says about not trading in "unfamiliar territories" so much that I feel compelled to share it. His note strikes a chord - in the month of Feb, I had changed the way I executed my trades, and that had cost me. It didn't help that I was also distracted by non-trading related matters. I took what was to me a rather long break to regroup. During that period, and in the weeks before, I've been receiving emails from those on my blogroll, friends who are not traders, and people I've never met or spoken with in my life (e.g. The Banker). Each has given me something to ponder on, and for that, I am very grateful....

Austin, I love all your notes. You're very long-winded, and I don't know how to respond. Just know that I'm extremely touched :-)

J (my chat buddy) left a note for me today. He was trying to cheer me up after I failed to show up. This was how he attempted to console me: by telling me how terrible a life others (from around the world) are living. Well, thank you, J, you sure made me feel terribly guilty for being melancholic for no good reason. :-P Ok, seriously, you know that I always love what you say.

Ben (you know who you are), I took your advice and didn't respond to your email. See? I listen sometimes. :-D Thank you, Ben, you're very sweet.

To all others who wrote: I don't know when I would be able to finish all the mails I was supposed to have sent out - I am really beginning to run out of things to say...

I am not attention seeking; I write because it is therapeutic for me (I don't believe in keeping a diary that's for my eyes only - it's a superstitious thing that I am not in the mood to elaborate on).

That said, the notes and letters have warmed my heart.

Here's one from weeks back that still makes me smile:

Hi Jules,

worries me when I read your latest post. Forgive me for being 'busy body'. Maybe you should check on these areas and reflect on the causes of your current state of emotions. Provide my personal assessment below each.

1) Family ( besides spouse )
Not lacking. Seems ok in this aspect becos of your frequent mention of sis and nieces.

2) Spouse
Lacking. I dont think you love ur partner from your postings. It's seems more like out of convenience and benefits.

3) Friendship
Lacking. Try to establish communication with the few closest friends u have who care about you.

4) Work satisfaction
Lacking ? I'm not sure about tis. But i guess its lacking due to the uncertainties of trading. Suggest you find something u like on a permanent basis ( part time ? ) which will not affect your trading if u really want to continue.

5) Social
Lacking. Need to make an effort to be less suspicious and accept the imperfections of others.

I briefly touch on the above since I'm not sure how you take these. Anyway, sincerely hope happy occasions come your way and the current depressive mode goes away.

My first trade after D's motivational talk last night (story for another day):

CL 15min
CL 2min

Thursday, December 10, 2009

CL Trades 12/10 (Thurs) - Stopped, Stopped, Bingo

Total: + USD 208


CL 200-Ticks
I can't help it. $70 is a bargain - for now at least.

I've used rather tight stops for the first 2 entries (red arrows). After all, price hasn't broken beneath a bear channel that started at the most recent peak (71.20), and so I wasn't sure...

3rd Shot (Blue Arrow)
70.44 was the upper range of a zone support, and also where price had hit a bear wolfe target (an overshoot in fact). Most importantly, price has overshot the black bull channel (I love overshoots), and I was betting on price to bounce off 70.44 on a strong bull reversal.

Stop was at 70.39, and subsequently moved to 70.71. No breakeven stop for this trade.

Target was wherever price hit the bottom of the pink wedge (connecting point 1 to 4 of the wedge is the thick pink trendline along which lies the target for a wolfe setup short from 71.20).

I'll stop for the day. Taking a break before I start losing perspective.

Trades 12/9 (Wed) - Crude Oil Day

Total: + USD 30

I hope I am in the process of morphing into Solfest.

Taking a break tmrw. I think I need it.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

6E, 6B & CL Trades 12/9 (Wed) - Screwed by FX, Saved by Oil

Total : - USD 88

6E 200- Ticks
6B 200-Ticks
CL 200-Ticks

I remember, rather vaguely, telling D rather recently, that I wasn't ever going to trade FX futures (in particular, 6E & 6J) on WEDNESDAY again.

I forgot today's Wednesday.

AUDUSD LONG position
Looking better. Holding. Definitely holding for +150 pips.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

6B & CL Trades 12/8 (Tues) - Crude Oil Is Mad

Just 1 scratched 6B trade, and 1 CL trade from globex hour:

Total for Dec 8th 's 6B & CL trades : + USD 188


CL 200-Ticks (+ 2 Points)
I must have waited for 5 hours to buy oil. Then, as we were having dinner and watching star trek, I spotted my entry. Got in and got out in under 1 min. Then I tapped D's shoulder. D turned around, saw my trade, and was amazed by how stealth I've become.

I had him press his ear against my chest.

D said no more crude for me for the rest of the week, and imposed a quota of 2 CL trades per week.

Trading ETFs after US market opens. They are just better for the heart.

Monday, December 7, 2009

Trades 12/7 (Mon) - I LOVE CRUDE!

Total: + USD 320

CL 200-Ticks
Waited for a trendline break. CL broke out. Waited for pull back. CL pulled back to touch red downtrend line for the 3rd time. Lovely! 3rd touch! Now what else do I need? A profit target. Lo and behold, a Wolfe appeared!

Went in with a stop at the low of the pattern. It was the first time I was trading crude oil LIVE. Heart was racing. Moved stop to break even. Heart was still racing. D asked why breakeven. Why not a tick above. I told him to shut up. Then I decided that a good experience with crude should be my target. Exited after taking 11 cents. My hand was still shaking and it totally cracked D up.

DIG and DUG - Totally D's. He bought DIG when I was long CL. He bought DUG when I told him CL totally hit my Wolfe target. I teased him. He agreed that he has no views of his own. D's pissed. Muahahaha!!!

I'm done with futures for the day and helping D to move his portfolio.

TF account's going to idle for as long as there's no clear direction on indices.

Update: WOLFE pattern showing the wave counts (For more details on Wolfe, do check out Todd's blog. He has a wealth of info on Wolfe and other patterns that appear often on futures and stocks charts.):
CL 200-Tick